Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
People attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 29, 2025.
Mass protests target Erdogan’s grip on power in Turkey
Five days after the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, said it would no longer hold protests against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the arrest of its presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of the capital on Saturday. Now, the CHP has vowed to continue the protests until the authorities release Imamoglu and clear him to run for the presidency.
Fall from grace. Just three weeks ago, Erdogan’s government was on a winning streak. The Assad regime — a staunch opponent — had fallen in Syria, a rebel Kurdish group had laid down their weapons, and the Turkish economy was looking relatively rosy. Now, the Turkish leader is on his back foot. Erdogan has tried to crush the rebellion, arresting thousands of protestors, but this latest protest suggests that the demonstrators are in it for the long haul. And the Turkish economy is now in retreat.
It’s strictly business. A crackdown on journalists continues, with several having been detained in recent days. Swedish reporter Joakim Medin was arrested as soon as he touched down in Turkey on Thursday for allegedly insulting the president. This followed the arrest and deportation of BBC reporter Mark Lowen earlier in the week.
Stern words. “This is more than the slow erosion of democracy. It is the deliberate dismantling of our republic’s institutional foundations,” the imprisoned Imamoglu wrote in a New York Times op-ed. The opposition leader also panned democratic governments across the globe for failing to denounce the Turkish government. “Their silence is deafening,” he wrote.
But there have been demonstrations in European cities in solidarity with the protesters in Istanbul, and many inside Turkey and around the world are wondering whether the man who has led the bicontinental country since 2003 can hang on amid the uproar.
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.
A person holds a placard during a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 23, 2025.
Imamoglu arrested as protests rock Turkey
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was formally arrested, charged with corruption, and jailed on Sunday. His detainment last Wednesday sparked widespread mass protests across Turkey, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in cities including Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, despite a four-day ban on public gatherings.
Over 300 people have been arrested, and the government has demanded that X suspend the accounts of protest organizers. The country also banned short-selling and eased buyback rules to help stabilize markets after the benchmark stock index fell significantly last week.
Despite Imamoglu's arrest, his party proceeded with its internal vote Sunday to confirm him as its presidential candidate. While his arrest is likely to sideline him politically ahead of the next vote, it could also fuel a cycle of further protests and crackdowns by authorities. Forty-seven other people were also imprisoned on related charges pending trial, including a political aide and two district mayors, while 44 other suspects were released under judicial control.
What’s behind the government’s tough line? Imamoglu and his supporters claim that the charges are politically motivated, part of a crackdown ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. To run again, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 71, who has ruled for 22 years as prime minister and president, would have to convince Parliament to hold early elections before the end of his second five-year presidential term. That is the only way he would be permitted to run again under Turkey’s constitution. The popular Imamoglu is seen as a chief rival for the job.
Will there be international pressure? A year ago, Erdogan’s crackdown could have been expected to get the cold shoulder in Washington. But in 2025, his warm relations with US President Donald Trump, Ankara’s support for the transition in Syria, and Turkey’s willingness to back up European security guarantees for a ceasefire in Ukraine will likely insulate the Turkish president from international isolation.
Stranded passengers at Heathrow Terminal 5 in London on Friday, March 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Fire closes Heathrow, Israel fires Shin Bet chief, Turks protest political arrests, EU postpones tariffs, Home sales surge, American happiness drops
1,300: Traveling through the UK will be hectic today after London’s Heathrow Airport, which handles roughly 1,300 flights per day, unexpectedly closed overnight due to a power outage. The airport, one of the world’s busiest, will remain closed until 11.59 p.m. tonight following a fire at a nearby electrical substation, which supplies the facility’s power. Thousands of travelers have been left stranded.
40,000: Israel’s cabinet on Friday unanimously voted to dismiss Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, marking the first such removal in the country’s history. The move intensifies Israel’s political and constitutional crises, as Bar was investigating Netanyahu’s aides over alleged payments from Qatar, and critics fear Netanyahu will appoint a loyalist to politicize the agency. The long-anticipated decision was met with over 40,000 people protesting in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
1,000’s: Thousands of Turks are protesting the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after he was arrested Thursday on graft and terrorism-related charges. Opposition leaders have condemned Imamoglu’s arrest as a political coup, and he posted to X, “We must stand against this evil as a nation.”
50: The European Union has postponed two sets of retaliatory tariffs on US products, including a 50% levy on American whiskey, from April 1 to mid-month. According to EU spokesperson Olof Gill, the delay represents a “slight adjustment” to allow more time for negotiations. American tariffs against a wide range of EU goods are still set to take effect on April 2, though their exact amount remains unknown.
4.2: US existing home sales surged 4.2% in February, despite higher mortgage rates, upending expectations that sales would drop by a monthly rate of 3.2%. But sales remain below levels from a year ago, and homes are taking longer to sell as high prices and borrowing costs continue to deter some buyers.
24: The United States fell from 23rd to 24th place out of 147 countries – its lowest ranking ever – in the annual World Happiness Report, which was released Thursday. Finland remains the happiest nation for the eighth year in a row, followed once again by Denmark, Iceland, and Sweden.
Ekrem Imamoglu, from Republican People's Party, is seen as one of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals.
Turkey arrests Erdoğan’s chief political rival days before presidential primary
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a widespread crackdown on his political opposition Wednesday when police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu just days before the popular opposition leader was set to win his party’s presidential nod.
İmamoğlu emerged as Erdoğan’s chief rival after winning the top job in the nation’s largest city in 2019. Erdoğan’s conservative religious Justice and Development Party, whose candidate came in second place for a position seen as a stepping stone to higher office, demanded a recount – then a rerun – of the election. İmamoğlu netted even more votes the second time and won reelection last year.
The mayor’s secular Republican People’s Party was expected to nominate him for president on Sunday.
On Tuesday, Istanbul University revoked İmamoğlu’s diploma, citing alleged irregularities in his transcripts from when he transferred in 1990 from a private college in northern Cyprus. İmamoğlu was expected to appeal the decision, which effectively barred him from seeking the highest office.
Then, on Wednesday, police arrested İmamoğlu and more than 100 of his political allies amid a corruption and terror probe.
“A handful of minds are trying to usurp the will of the nation by using our beloved policemen … as an instrument of evil,” İmamoğlu said in a video filmed in his closet as he donned a tie while the police were outside his house. “Let my nation know I will continue to stand firm. I will continue to fight against that man.”
Financial blowback: The Turkish lira plunged Wednesday to a record low against the dollar.
Public response? Erdoğan’s allies issued a four-day ban on public demonstrations and press statements but that has not stopped protesters from taking to the streets in a show of anger. A representative from İmamoğlu's party is set to address supporters in Istanbul today, and several demonstrations are planned on the city's university campuses.
President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, photographed at the Presidential palace in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023.
Is Turkey on a roll these days?
With so much of the world in geopolitical flux these days, it’s hard to pick clear winners or losers. But one leader who could be pretty happy about how things are going at the moment is Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish president has been in power for more than 20 years. Now he’s angling to stick around even beyond his current term limits, which expire in 2028. Luckily for him, a number of things are suddenly going right at once.
“He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade,” says Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s top Turkey expert.
Let’s take a look at the hit parade:
First, the Assad regime in Syria is gone. Erdogan had worked towards this for years, hoping that Bashar Assad’s fall and the end of the Syrian civil war would hasten the return of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey – so far more than 80,000 have returned – while also opening up opportunities for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the country.
Ankara has already laid the groundwork for a military partnership with the new Syrian government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose HTS militia overthrew Assad back in December with Turkish help.
Second, the Kurdish problem may be nearing a resolution. The main Kurdish militant group, the PKK, has suggested it is willing to lay down its arms after 40 years of armed struggle against the Turkish state. (See more here.) If so, it would bring to an end a once-intractable conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.
Third, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could be a boon, opening up reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine for Turkey’s world-class construction firms. Erdogan, who has good ties with Russia but has also positioned Turkey as a potential peacemaker in the war, has taken care to show support recently for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even as Washington distances itself from Kyiv.
And if the Trump Administration really does reduce its defense commitments to Europe – as the EU now vividly fears – Turkey could benefit both as a supplier of arms to the EU and as a critical interlocutor between the continent and Russia, with whom Erdogan has cultivated friendly relations, to the chagrin of its NATO allies.
Lastly, the economy is perking up. True, inflation is still at 39%, but that’s the lowest level in nearly two years, and the central bank has been cautiously cutting rates to keep up the economic momentum: Turkey’s GDP grew 3.2% last year, beating expectations.
But there are huge caveats to all of this, says Peker.
First, Syria could just as easily blow up as glow up. The country is a sectarian patchwork ravaged by decades of dictatorship and years of civil war. The new government of jihadist-turned-statesman al-Sharaa has yet to prove that it can achieve stability. On Friday, violence exploded between government forces and the Alawite minority that the Assads themselves hailed from.
“If that spirals out of control,” says Peker, “it will encourage other militias to try to secure more autonomy for themselves, which could create instability on Turkey's border – in which case Erdogan’s dreams of economically benefiting from the new Syria would go down the drain.”
Second, the Kurdish solution will require a careful compromise. Erdogan’s Islamist AK party is supported by the far-right MHP party. But even together they don’t have the votes that Erdogan needs to change the constitution or call early elections – the only two ways he can get around the 2028 term limit.
The support of Kurdish parties could get Erdogan over the line, but it’s a narrow path: Erdogan will need to grant the Kurds just enough autonomy and cultural rights to seal the end of the conflict, but without giving them so much that his nationalist partners in the MHP balk.
Third, Trump’s realignment won’t necessarily help Erdogan.
Turkey can in principle benefit from Europe’s new plans to Trump-proof itself by spending more than $800 billion on defense, but European governments may prefer to keep that spending – and the resulting jobs – in the EU rather than give Turkey a piece of the action.
And if Washington really does fold up its European security umbrella and go home, Ankara could be in big trouble. Turkey’s Incirlik airbase is home to dozens of American nuclear weapons and thousands of US troops.
“Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella,” says Peker. “If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”
In all, it’s more of a mixed bag for Erdogan than it may at first appear. Although a lot of things are coming up aces for Erdogan these days, says Peker, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants.”
Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?
I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.
What does the resignation of Iran's Vice President Zarif signal about tensions in the country?
Well, given the fact that the finance minister was also just impeached this weekend, also a would-be reformist, a moderate, in the context of the Iranian political spectrum, it means the supreme leader and the conservatives do not trust these guys to engage with the Americans or the West. It's a harder line Iranian policy as they move towards greater levels of stockpiling, of enriched uranium, and as their military strategy has fallen apart for the region. If anyone is going to talk to the Americans, and if anyone is going to try to forestall attacks from Israel, and maybe by the US as well, it's not going to be the people that got the original Iranian nuclear deal done, the JCPOA. So, that's what it looks like in reform. Nascent under a lot of trouble. The Iranian president under a lot of pressure right now at home.
What's next for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire as the first phase comes to an end?
Well, I think what everyone is waiting for is the Egypt deal, which is being penned and is being sent over in advance of an Arab League summit to Trump in the coming hours, if not day. Originally, it was a few hundred pages long. The Saudis told the Egyptians, "Maybe you want to have an executive summary that's a little glossier for Trump? He's not reading a couple hundred pages." That's been worked on all weekend. And it certainly isn't the Americans owning Gaza. It certainly isn't the Palestinians being forced out or all voluntarily leaving. Whether or not Trump is prepared to sign off on that, or at least allow it to go forward and not veto it, as long as it hits that hurdle, I think you'll have pretty much all of the Arab states signing off on it in the Arab summit. That's where we are right now, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Syrian Kurds gather with flags as Turkey's jailed militant leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on his Kurdistan Workers Party to lay down its arms last week in Hasakah, Syria.
Kurdish rebels declare ceasefire, but what’s the quid pro quo?
So why stop fighting? Perhaps, freedom. Last October, staunch Turkish nationalist Devlet Bahceliinvited Ocalan to come to parliament and “declare that he has laid down his arms” – and intimated that his life sentence could be lifted. This weekend, Bahceli, whose party is the largest partner in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s coalition,welcomed Ocalan’s call for disbanding the PKK, calling it a “valuable and important” statement.
The move also comes as Erdogan seeks support for constitutional changes that would allow him to run for a third term in 2028, and the backing of the pro-Kurdish DEM party could be key. In the past two months, DEM Party representativeshave paid three visits to Ocalan, the first since members of the party’s predecessor, the Peoples’ Democratic Party, met with him in April 2015. Ocalan’s nephew, Omer Ocalan, a member of the Turkish Parliament, also visited and shared a message from his uncle on social media.
Will the ceasefire hold? It’s not clear, and a similar agreement in 2013 failed to endure. The deal must also first be accepted by Turkey and is complicated by the fact that the PKK is still classified as a terrorist organization by that country, the US, and the EU. We’re watching for Erdogan’s next move – and whether Ocalan’s liberation follows.