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People attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 29, 2025.

REUTERS/Umit Bektas

Mass protests target Erdogan’s grip on power in Turkey

Five days after the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, said it would no longer hold protests against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the arrest of its presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of the capital on Saturday. Now, the CHP has vowed to continue the protests until the authorities release Imamoglu and clear him to run for the presidency.

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US travel warnings issued by its closest allies

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?

You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.

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A person holds a placard during a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 23, 2025.

REUTERS/Alexandros Avramidis

Imamoglu arrested as protests rock Turkey

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was formally arrested, charged with corruption, and jailed on Sunday. His detainment last Wednesday sparked widespread mass protests across Turkey, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in cities including Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, despite a four-day ban on public gatherings.

Over 300 people have been arrested, and the government has demanded that X suspend the accounts of protest organizers. The country also banned short-selling and eased buyback rules to help stabilize markets after the benchmark stock index fell significantly last week.

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Stranded passengers at Heathrow Terminal 5 in London on Friday, March 21, 2025.

PA Images via Reuters Connect

HARD NUMBERS: Fire closes Heathrow, Israel fires Shin Bet chief, Turks protest political arrests, EU postpones tariffs, Home sales surge, American happiness drops

1,300: Traveling through the UK will be hectic today after London’s Heathrow Airport, which handles roughly 1,300 flights per day, unexpectedly closed overnight due to a power outage. The airport, one of the world’s busiest, will remain closed until 11.59 p.m. tonight following a fire at a nearby electrical substation, which supplies the facility’s power. Thousands of travelers have been left stranded.

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Ekrem Imamoglu, from Republican People's Party, is seen as one of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals.

Depo Photos/Sipa USA via Reuters

Turkey arrests Erdoğan’s chief political rival days before presidential primary

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a widespread crackdown on his political opposition Wednesday when police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu just days before the popular opposition leader was set to win his party’s presidential nod.

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President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, photographed at the Presidential palace in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023.

Aris Oikonomou / Hans Lucas via Reuters

Is Turkey on a roll these days?

With so much of the world in geopolitical flux these days, it’s hard to pick clear winners or losers. But one leader who could be pretty happy about how things are going at the moment is Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The Turkish president has been in power for more than 20 years. Now he’s angling to stick around even beyond his current term limits, which expire in 2028. Luckily for him, a number of things are suddenly going right at once.

“He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade,” says Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s top Turkey expert.

Let’s take a look at the hit parade:

First, the Assad regime in Syria is gone. Erdogan had worked towards this for years, hoping that Bashar Assad’s fall and the end of the Syrian civil war would hasten the return of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey – so far more than 80,000 have returned – while also opening up opportunities for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the country.

Ankara has already laid the groundwork for a military partnership with the new Syrian government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose HTS militia overthrew Assad back in December with Turkish help.

Second, the Kurdish problem may be nearing a resolution. The main Kurdish militant group, the PKK, has suggested it is willing to lay down its arms after 40 years of armed struggle against the Turkish state. (See more here.) If so, it would bring to an end a once-intractable conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.

Third, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could be a boon, opening up reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine for Turkey’s world-class construction firms. Erdogan, who has good ties with Russia but has also positioned Turkey as a potential peacemaker in the war, has taken care to show support recently for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even as Washington distances itself from Kyiv.

And if the Trump Administration really does reduce its defense commitments to Europe – as the EU now vividly fears – Turkey could benefit both as a supplier of arms to the EU and as a critical interlocutor between the continent and Russia, with whom Erdogan has cultivated friendly relations, to the chagrin of its NATO allies.

Lastly, the economy is perking up. True, inflation is still at 39%, but that’s the lowest level in nearly two years, and the central bank has been cautiously cutting rates to keep up the economic momentum: Turkey’s GDP grew 3.2% last year, beating expectations.

But there are huge caveats to all of this, says Peker.

First, Syria could just as easily blow up as glow up. The country is a sectarian patchwork ravaged by decades of dictatorship and years of civil war. The new government of jihadist-turned-statesman al-Sharaa has yet to prove that it can achieve stability. On Friday, violence exploded between government forces and the Alawite minority that the Assads themselves hailed from.

“If that spirals out of control,” says Peker, “it will encourage other militias to try to secure more autonomy for themselves, which could create instability on Turkey's border – in which case Erdogan’s dreams of economically benefiting from the new Syria would go down the drain.”

Second, the Kurdish solution will require a careful compromise. Erdogan’s Islamist AK party is supported by the far-right MHP party. But even together they don’t have the votes that Erdogan needs to change the constitution or call early elections – the only two ways he can get around the 2028 term limit.

The support of Kurdish parties could get Erdogan over the line, but it’s a narrow path: Erdogan will need to grant the Kurds just enough autonomy and cultural rights to seal the end of the conflict, but without giving them so much that his nationalist partners in the MHP balk.

Third, Trump’s realignment won’t necessarily help Erdogan.

Turkey can in principle benefit from Europe’s new plans to Trump-proof itself by spending more than $800 billion on defense, but European governments may prefer to keep that spending – and the resulting jobs – in the EU rather than give Turkey a piece of the action.

And if Washington really does fold up its European security umbrella and go home, Ankara could be in big trouble. Turkey’s Incirlik airbase is home to dozens of American nuclear weapons and thousands of US troops.

“Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella,” says Peker. “If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”

In all, it’s more of a mixed bag for Erdogan than it may at first appear. Although a lot of things are coming up aces for Erdogan these days, says Peker, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants.”

- YouTube

Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Does Trump's relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?

I wouldn't say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they've met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They're both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations. There's a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don't. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin. Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they're getting weaker, they exist. That's not true in Russia. It's not true in China. So, I don't think Beijing is very worried about that.

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Syrian Kurds gather with flags as Turkey's jailed militant leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on his Kurdistan Workers Party to lay down its arms last week in Hasakah, Syria.

REUTERS/Orhan Qereman

Kurdish rebels declare ceasefire, but what’s the quid pro quo?

After a 40-year conflict with Turkey that has killed 40,000 people, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, declareda ceasefire on Saturday following a call from its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to dissolve the group. Ocalan, imprisoned since 1999, called the move a “historical responsibility” – but one that brings no apparent concessions from Ankara.
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