Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
The Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike on Thursday, targeting a building in the Mashrou Dummar area of Damascus. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant confirmed Israel's responsibility for the attack, which resulted in one fatality.
Israel strikes Syria to warn Turkey
Aswe wrote in February, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has big plans for Syria. Erdogan’s government was a crucial backer of the HTS militia, an Islamist rebel group that ousted longtime Syrian strongman Bashar Assad in December, and he now wants Turkey’s military to take over some air bases on Syrian territory in exchange for Turkish training of Syria’s new army.
This, Erdogan hopes, will allow Turkey to greatly expand its regional influence, return many of the millions of Syrian refugees still living inside Turkey, and clamp down on Kurdish militants who have used Syria as a base of operations against Turkey’s military.
That’s the backdrop for awave of Israeli airstrikes on military targets inside Syria early Thursday. The Syrian government called the attacks a “deliberate attempt to destabilize Syria” and “a blatant violation of international law and Syrian sovereignty.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz quickly fired back at Syria’s president: “If you allow forces hostile to Israel to enter Syria and endanger Israeli security interests, you will pay a very heavy price.” Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar warned that Erdogan is doing his “utmost to have Syria as a Turkish protectorate.”
Syria’s fledgling military is no match for its neighbors, and its new government remains at the mercy of outside players. This dangerous competition to fill the vacuum in Syria created by the ouster of Assad is just beginning.
Turkey's protests & crackdowns complicate EU relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
Do you think the Signal controversy in the US will have an impact on the transatlantic relationship?
Well, not in itself. It does betray an attitude to security issues that is somewhat too relaxed, to put it very mildly. But what does betray as well is the disdain, the resentment, the anger against Europeans that is there from the vice president, the secretary of defense, and others, and that is duly noted. And of course, something that is subject of what we have to note it. It's there. It's a fact.
What impact do you think the Turkish protest and instability will have on Turkish relationships with its European allies?
Well, it's certainly not going to be a good thing. We have an interest in good relationship and stable relationship with Turkey. It's a significant EU strategic actor. It's a significant economy. But of course, when we have these arrests of a prominent opposition, politicians, we have massive protests that are repressed, that we have massive violations of social media and arrests of journalists and things like that. It does complicate things to put it very mildly. We haven't seen the end of that story yet.
People attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 29, 2025.
Mass protests target Erdogan’s grip on power in Turkey
Five days after the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, said it would no longer hold protests against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the arrest of its presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of the capital on Saturday. Now, the CHP has vowed to continue the protests until the authorities release Imamoglu and clear him to run for the presidency.
Fall from grace. Just three weeks ago, Erdogan’s government was on a winning streak. The Assad regime — a staunch opponent — had fallen in Syria, a rebel Kurdish group had laid down their weapons, and the Turkish economy was looking relatively rosy. Now, the Turkish leader is on his back foot. Erdogan has tried to crush the rebellion, arresting thousands of protestors, but this latest protest suggests that the demonstrators are in it for the long haul. And the Turkish economy is now in retreat.
It’s strictly business. A crackdown on journalists continues, with several having been detained in recent days. Swedish reporter Joakim Medin was arrested as soon as he touched down in Turkey on Thursday for allegedly insulting the president. This followed the arrest and deportation of BBC reporter Mark Lowen earlier in the week.
Stern words. “This is more than the slow erosion of democracy. It is the deliberate dismantling of our republic’s institutional foundations,” the imprisoned Imamoglu wrote in a New York Times op-ed. The opposition leader also panned democratic governments across the globe for failing to denounce the Turkish government. “Their silence is deafening,” he wrote.
But there have been demonstrations in European cities in solidarity with the protesters in Istanbul, and many inside Turkey and around the world are wondering whether the man who has led the bicontinental country since 2003 can hang on amid the uproar.
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.
A person holds a placard during a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 23, 2025.
Imamoglu arrested as protests rock Turkey
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was formally arrested, charged with corruption, and jailed on Sunday. His detainment last Wednesday sparked widespread mass protests across Turkey, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in cities including Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, despite a four-day ban on public gatherings.
Over 300 people have been arrested, and the government has demanded that X suspend the accounts of protest organizers. The country also banned short-selling and eased buyback rules to help stabilize markets after the benchmark stock index fell significantly last week.
Despite Imamoglu's arrest, his party proceeded with its internal vote Sunday to confirm him as its presidential candidate. While his arrest is likely to sideline him politically ahead of the next vote, it could also fuel a cycle of further protests and crackdowns by authorities. Forty-seven other people were also imprisoned on related charges pending trial, including a political aide and two district mayors, while 44 other suspects were released under judicial control.
What’s behind the government’s tough line? Imamoglu and his supporters claim that the charges are politically motivated, part of a crackdown ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. To run again, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 71, who has ruled for 22 years as prime minister and president, would have to convince Parliament to hold early elections before the end of his second five-year presidential term. That is the only way he would be permitted to run again under Turkey’s constitution. The popular Imamoglu is seen as a chief rival for the job.
Will there be international pressure? A year ago, Erdogan’s crackdown could have been expected to get the cold shoulder in Washington. But in 2025, his warm relations with US President Donald Trump, Ankara’s support for the transition in Syria, and Turkey’s willingness to back up European security guarantees for a ceasefire in Ukraine will likely insulate the Turkish president from international isolation.
Stranded passengers at Heathrow Terminal 5 in London on Friday, March 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Fire closes Heathrow, Israel fires Shin Bet chief, Turks protest political arrests, EU postpones tariffs, Home sales surge, American happiness drops
1,300: Traveling through the UK will be hectic today after London’s Heathrow Airport, which handles roughly 1,300 flights per day, unexpectedly closed overnight due to a power outage. The airport, one of the world’s busiest, will remain closed until 11.59 p.m. tonight following a fire at a nearby electrical substation, which supplies the facility’s power. Thousands of travelers have been left stranded.
40,000: Israel’s cabinet on Friday unanimously voted to dismiss Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, marking the first such removal in the country’s history. The move intensifies Israel’s political and constitutional crises, as Bar was investigating Netanyahu’s aides over alleged payments from Qatar, and critics fear Netanyahu will appoint a loyalist to politicize the agency. The long-anticipated decision was met with over 40,000 people protesting in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
1,000’s: Thousands of Turks are protesting the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after he was arrested Thursday on graft and terrorism-related charges. Opposition leaders have condemned Imamoglu’s arrest as a political coup, and he posted to X, “We must stand against this evil as a nation.”
50: The European Union has postponed two sets of retaliatory tariffs on US products, including a 50% levy on American whiskey, from April 1 to mid-month. According to EU spokesperson Olof Gill, the delay represents a “slight adjustment” to allow more time for negotiations. American tariffs against a wide range of EU goods are still set to take effect on April 2, though their exact amount remains unknown.
4.2: US existing home sales surged 4.2% in February, despite higher mortgage rates, upending expectations that sales would drop by a monthly rate of 3.2%. But sales remain below levels from a year ago, and homes are taking longer to sell as high prices and borrowing costs continue to deter some buyers.
24: The United States fell from 23rd to 24th place out of 147 countries – its lowest ranking ever – in the annual World Happiness Report, which was released Thursday. Finland remains the happiest nation for the eighth year in a row, followed once again by Denmark, Iceland, and Sweden.
Ekrem Imamoglu, from Republican People's Party, is seen as one of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals.
Turkey arrests Erdoğan’s chief political rival days before presidential primary
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a widespread crackdown on his political opposition Wednesday when police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu just days before the popular opposition leader was set to win his party’s presidential nod.
İmamoğlu emerged as Erdoğan’s chief rival after winning the top job in the nation’s largest city in 2019. Erdoğan’s conservative religious Justice and Development Party, whose candidate came in second place for a position seen as a stepping stone to higher office, demanded a recount – then a rerun – of the election. İmamoğlu netted even more votes the second time and won reelection last year.
The mayor’s secular Republican People’s Party was expected to nominate him for president on Sunday.
On Tuesday, Istanbul University revoked İmamoğlu’s diploma, citing alleged irregularities in his transcripts from when he transferred in 1990 from a private college in northern Cyprus. İmamoğlu was expected to appeal the decision, which effectively barred him from seeking the highest office.
Then, on Wednesday, police arrested İmamoğlu and more than 100 of his political allies amid a corruption and terror probe.
“A handful of minds are trying to usurp the will of the nation by using our beloved policemen … as an instrument of evil,” İmamoğlu said in a video filmed in his closet as he donned a tie while the police were outside his house. “Let my nation know I will continue to stand firm. I will continue to fight against that man.”
Financial blowback: The Turkish lira plunged Wednesday to a record low against the dollar.
Public response? Erdoğan’s allies issued a four-day ban on public demonstrations and press statements but that has not stopped protesters from taking to the streets in a show of anger. A representative from İmamoğlu's party is set to address supporters in Istanbul today, and several demonstrations are planned on the city's university campuses.
President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, photographed at the Presidential palace in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023.
Is Turkey on a roll these days?
With so much of the world in geopolitical flux these days, it’s hard to pick clear winners or losers. But one leader who could be pretty happy about how things are going at the moment is Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish president has been in power for more than 20 years. Now he’s angling to stick around even beyond his current term limits, which expire in 2028. Luckily for him, a number of things are suddenly going right at once.
“He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade,” says Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s top Turkey expert.
Let’s take a look at the hit parade:
First, the Assad regime in Syria is gone. Erdogan had worked towards this for years, hoping that Bashar Assad’s fall and the end of the Syrian civil war would hasten the return of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey – so far more than 80,000 have returned – while also opening up opportunities for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the country.
Ankara has already laid the groundwork for a military partnership with the new Syrian government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose HTS militia overthrew Assad back in December with Turkish help.
Second, the Kurdish problem may be nearing a resolution. The main Kurdish militant group, the PKK, has suggested it is willing to lay down its arms after 40 years of armed struggle against the Turkish state. (See more here.) If so, it would bring to an end a once-intractable conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.
Third, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could be a boon, opening up reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine for Turkey’s world-class construction firms. Erdogan, who has good ties with Russia but has also positioned Turkey as a potential peacemaker in the war, has taken care to show support recently for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even as Washington distances itself from Kyiv.
And if the Trump Administration really does reduce its defense commitments to Europe – as the EU now vividly fears – Turkey could benefit both as a supplier of arms to the EU and as a critical interlocutor between the continent and Russia, with whom Erdogan has cultivated friendly relations, to the chagrin of its NATO allies.
Lastly, the economy is perking up. True, inflation is still at 39%, but that’s the lowest level in nearly two years, and the central bank has been cautiously cutting rates to keep up the economic momentum: Turkey’s GDP grew 3.2% last year, beating expectations.
But there are huge caveats to all of this, says Peker.
First, Syria could just as easily blow up as glow up. The country is a sectarian patchwork ravaged by decades of dictatorship and years of civil war. The new government of jihadist-turned-statesman al-Sharaa has yet to prove that it can achieve stability. On Friday, violence exploded between government forces and the Alawite minority that the Assads themselves hailed from.
“If that spirals out of control,” says Peker, “it will encourage other militias to try to secure more autonomy for themselves, which could create instability on Turkey's border – in which case Erdogan’s dreams of economically benefiting from the new Syria would go down the drain.”
Second, the Kurdish solution will require a careful compromise. Erdogan’s Islamist AK party is supported by the far-right MHP party. But even together they don’t have the votes that Erdogan needs to change the constitution or call early elections – the only two ways he can get around the 2028 term limit.
The support of Kurdish parties could get Erdogan over the line, but it’s a narrow path: Erdogan will need to grant the Kurds just enough autonomy and cultural rights to seal the end of the conflict, but without giving them so much that his nationalist partners in the MHP balk.
Third, Trump’s realignment won’t necessarily help Erdogan.
Turkey can in principle benefit from Europe’s new plans to Trump-proof itself by spending more than $800 billion on defense, but European governments may prefer to keep that spending – and the resulting jobs – in the EU rather than give Turkey a piece of the action.
And if Washington really does fold up its European security umbrella and go home, Ankara could be in big trouble. Turkey’s Incirlik airbase is home to dozens of American nuclear weapons and thousands of US troops.
“Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella,” says Peker. “If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”
In all, it’s more of a mixed bag for Erdogan than it may at first appear. Although a lot of things are coming up aces for Erdogan these days, says Peker, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants.”