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Sweden's NATO membership is imminent after Turkey's approval
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week from Davos on World In :60.
With the Turkish parliament officially approving Sweden's membership of NATO, will Hungary remain the lone holdout?
I don't expect it. I think that Sweden is joining. Erdogan still has to sign. So, I mean, isn't done done done until the signatures on. But NATO is being sold very, very effectively by Vladimir Putin, continues to expand.
How will the West react to North Korea arming Russia for the war in Ukraine?
Well, the interesting thing, it's not just that North Korea is arming Russia, that Russia is helping North Korea in return, including advancing their ICBM program, which historically was a red line for the Americans. But what are they going to do about it now? I also notice the North Koreans just kind of blew up their big monument for reunification with the South Koreans. They’re saying the South Koreans are permanent enemy, that reunification is no longer an interest of theirs. You know, the North Koreans now have more room to cause trouble because the Chinese aren't the only country out there that is liking them and restraining them. The Russians provide support and they're much more of a chaos actor. It would not surprise me if we're going to see more trouble from the North Koreans in the coming months.
Is a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas likely in exchange for the release of all remaining hostages?
Well, the US would love to see that. Qatar would love to see that. The Israelis are now willing to consider deals that even a couple of weeks ago they were not. Things are not going as well for them on the ground. They don't really have a strategic endgame in Gaza or with Hamas right now. And there’s even more internal dissent within the war cabinet. I don't see Hamas, though, supporting giving away all of the hostages, which is leverage for them in return for a short-term ceasefire. They're taking a maximalist view. Israel has to pull all of their troops out if they would consider that. And the ceasefire has to be more than a couple of months. You know, functionally permanent. It does not seem at all to me that we are close to a deal. Let's put it that way.
A bomb disposal expert works at the scene after a bomb attack in Ankara, Turkey.
NATO battles: US shoots down Turkish drone in Syria
The US military on Thursday shot down a Turkish drone in northeast Syria, a remarkable development pitting two NATO states with an already complicated alliance against one another.
The Pentagon said that it warned Ankara several times beforehand that its hardware was too close to US troops stationed there, and that it made the decision to strike when the Turkish drone came within 500 meters of US personnel.
How’d we get here? As part of its decade-long mission to abolish the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, the US still has 900 troops operating in northern Syria. They work mainly with the Syrian Democratic Forces – a ragtag group of anti-regime militias including many Kurdish fighters.
Turkey, for its part, has long considered the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK, to be a terror group and has regularly launched operations in northern Syria aimed at rooting them out. What’s more, in recent days, Ankara has launched a fresh bombing campaign against Kurdish forces in Syria after a recent suicide bombing outside Turkey’s security headquarters in the capital – attributed to PKK members trained in Syria – killed two people.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said this week that PKK infrastructure and energy facilities in Syria and Iraq are “legitimate targets,” but the Pentagon came to believe that Turkey’s bombardment was imperiling US troops.
Washington is trying to de-escalate. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday that he’d spoken to his Turkish counterpart and emphasized that Washington understands Ankara’s “legitimate security concerns.”
The US, along with its EU partners, has been pushing in recent months for Ankara to give the greenlight to Sweden to join NATO. But Turkey says that’ll only happen when the US agrees to sell it F-16 fighter jets, something the US has so far refused to do in part because of disagreements over relations with Russia and … conflicting operations in Syria.
Relations between the US and Turkey were already very messy, particularly since 2019, when Ankara purchased Russian S-400 missile defense systems. This event will only generate more bad will.
Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan attends the NATO leaders summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
How Erdogan won the NATO Summit
This week’s NATO Summit in Vilnius is now over. So, who won?
It’s not Ukraine. NATO leaders bathed President Volodymyr Zelensky in waves of warm words and historic-sounding promises. But, as we wrote a day ago, none of that brings his country much closer to the NATO membership he wants. (That said, Ukraine isn’t really a loser, because neither immediate membership nor a timetable to join were ever in the cards.)
Certainly, Sweden is a winner — thanks to Turkey’s willingness to drop its threat to veto the country’s own entrance into NATO. Sweden will become the alliance’s 32nd member by the end of the year.
Russia’s government will declare itself a winner by pointing to (exaggerated) headlines that suggested Ukrainian and NATO leaders spent the week arguing. But the Kremlin’s already hollow win — and its claims of Ukrainian-Western frictions — were undermined when news broke that Ukraine had used a UK-supplied missile to kill a high-ranking Russian general deep inside Russian territory.
The true summit winner is Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He exited the event with a spring in his step …
… by earning concessions from Sweden, which will now back the expansion of a free trade agreement between the EU and Turkey. Sweden has also recently amended its Constitution to pass new counterterrorism legislation that Erdogan demanded, and agreed to extradite some of the Turks who’ve been charged with crimes by Ankara.
… by reminding Europe, Turkey’s largest export market, that he’s worth bargaining with. Erdogan’s support for Ukraine — including by selling Kyiv military drones — has won praise in Europe. But Erdogan remains the one NATO leader of consequence who can speak directly with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Both these things bolster Erdogan’s importance for the alliance, but his willingness to lift objections to Sweden’s entry, as he did for Finland, has earned him much goodwill, at least for now.
…by reminding Putin he’s not a pushover. At times, Russia has appeared to bully Erdogan’s government. In 2016, in response to Turkey shooting down a Russian fighter plane over Syria in November 2015, Putin inflicted real damage on Turkey’s economy by blocking Russian tourists from visiting. By voting for NATO enlargement, Erdogan reminds Putin that Turkey still has partners far more powerful than Russia.
…by winning a promise he can buy F-16s from the United States. In 2017, Turkey defied US objections and bought surface-to-air missile systems from Russia. Washington then responded with sanctions. But by greenlighting Sweden’s bid to join NATO, Turkey will soon be allowed to buy US-made fighter jets that are badly needed to upgrade Turkey’s air force. And that’s over the objections of many in Washington, who feel Erdogan’s history of jailing journalists and undermining democratic institutions in Turkey should have prevented the deal.
… and by showing Turkish voters that he’s still a major international player.
There is one last twist. Erdogan has decided to make Sweden sweat a little longer by saying Turkey’s parliament won’t officially vote on the Nordic country’s NATO membership until October.
When haggling with the Turkish president, nothing ever comes easy.
Scotland's First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) Leader Nicola Sturgeon.
What We’re Watching: Sturgeon's resignation, NATO-Nordic divide, India vs. BBC, Tunisia’s tightening grip
Nicola Sturgeon steps down
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Wednesday that she is stepping down. She’s been in the role for over eight years, having taken power after the failed 2014 independence referendum. Speaking from Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she’d been contemplating her future for weeks and knew "in my head and in my heart" it was time to go. A longtime supporter of Scottish independence, Sturgeon was pushing for a new referendum, which was rejected by the UK’s top court late last year. In recent weeks, she and her colleagues had been debating whether the next national election in 2024 should be an effective referendum on independence. Sturgeon will stay in power until a successor is elected — likely contenders include John Swinney, Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, Angus Robertson, the culture and external affairs secretary, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary.
Turkey divides Finland and Sweden
On Tuesday, NATO and other Western officials publicly acknowledged for the first time that Finland and Sweden might join the transatlantic alliance at different times, a notable public admission that negotiations with Turkey over Sweden’s NATO accession haven’t gone well. Neither Nordic country can become an alliance member without unanimous support from all existing members, and NATO-member Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a beef with Sweden. Erdogan is angry that Sweden’s government has provided asylum for dozens of Kurdish leaders he considers terrorists, and it didn’t help when a right-wing activist burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, an act Sweden’s government treated as an offensive act of free speech that’s protected by law. Erdogan may also see a political opportunity to boost his reelection chances by defying European leaders in general and Sweden in particular. (Turkey’s elections are expected in May or June.) For NATO, Finland’s membership is arguably the more urgent priority. Though Sweden monitors occasional Russian naval intrusions into its territorial waters, it’s Finland that shares an 810-mile land border with Russia. European leaders hope that, if Erdogan wins his election, a deal can be cut in the coming months to allow Sweden to join the club.
India takes aim at BBC
Indian tax officials raided the BBC’s local offices on Tuesday in what they said was a probe into the British broadcaster’s business practices. But the move comes amid a broader government campaign to censor a new BBC documentary about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s role in anti-Muslim riots that killed more than 1,000 people in the state of Gujarat while he was governor in 2002. Modi has always denied stoking – or neglecting – the violence, and India’s Supreme Court has reached a similar conclusion. In the weeks since the doc aired in the UK, Modi’s government has cracked down swiftly in India, blocking it from being viewed online in the country, halting screenings at Indian universities, and forcing both Twitter and YouTube to remove it locally. Modi has often used internet laws to muzzle criticism, and tax officials have searched critical media outlets before. Last year the subcontinent slipped eight points to 150 out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index. How will the UK government respond?
Tunisia crackdown intensifies
Robocop is not messing around now. Tunisian President Kais Saied, whose monotone style earned him that nickname, has unleashed a ferocious crackdown on his critics and opponents in recent days. On Tuesday, sweeping arrests ensnared the leader of Ennahda, an opposition Islamist movement that once held power in the country. Saied, a constitutional lawyer who was elected as an outsider candidate in 2019, has led a massive overhaul of Tunisia’s government, diminishing the power of the legislature and the courts. He says he’s trying to make government more decisive and efficient in the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring with a democracy. His critics say he is plunging the country of 12 million right back into an authoritarian winter. See our full profile of Saied here.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses via video link the 26th Annual Economist Government Roundtable in Lagonisi, Greece.
What We're Watching: Ukraine tackles corruption, Nordics-Turkey NATO drama
Ukraine sacks officials over graft
Just days after the Ukrainian defense ministry called reports of graft in its procurement contracts “nonsense,” a deputy defense minister has been sacked to “preserve the trust” of Kyiv’s international partners. Also ousted: one of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s top deputies, a fellow known for living lavishly and speeding around in a flashy car while his countrymen sleep in trenches. The move follows reports that Ukraine’s defense ministry had overpaid for food supplies, suggesting that kickbacks were in the mix. Despite making progress in recent years, Ukraine’s government has long struggled with endemic corruption, but Kyiv is particularly concerned to allay concerns in Europe and the US, which have sent tens of billions of dollars in aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. We’re also watching to see how things play out among rank-and-file soldiers — allegations of corruption at the top during a war where troops are defending their country with homemade dune buggies is a bad bad look …
Nordics-Turkey NATO soap opera continues
Just a few months ago, we all thought that a joint bid by Finland and Sweden to join NATO was a done deal. Not anymore. On Monday night, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pulled his support for Sweden in response to the Swedish government authorizing a far-right protest outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm where a copy of the Quran was burned. What's more, now Finland seems to be getting antsy. Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto on Tuesday suggested that perhaps the Finns will go it alone — although he later walked back the comment, calling for a two-week "time-out" in the talks with Turkey. While taking a chill pill might help calm things down, it's unlikely to resolve Erdoğan’s main beef with the two Nordic countries: In exchange for NATO consent, he wants them to hand over 100+ Turkish and Kurdish dissidents and tighten immigration laws to prevent more Erdoğan critics from seeking refuge there. We don’t know how or when this saga will end, but don't count on Ankara backing down. Erdoğan will weaponize the diplomatic tussle with Sweden to turn out his nationalist base ahead of the May 14 presidential election.Hard Numbers: Erdo vs. Nordics, China’s economic slump, new Nigerian voters, bridge to Sicily, Ukrainian chopper crash
130: Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants Finland and Sweden to hand over 130 political dissidents that Ankara calls "terrorists" in order to approve their joint application to join NATO. His demand comes a week after Kurdish activists in Stockholm hung an effigy of Erdoğan from a lamppost to protest against the Turkish leader for holding the Nordics' NATO bids hostage.
3: China’s economic growth dropped by more than half to 3% in 2022 from the previous year, its second-lowest level in four decades, mainly due to zero-COVID and a sluggish property sector. But the outlook for 2023 is more promising after Xi Jinping ditched pandemic curbs and loosened restrictions on real estate borrowing.
10 million: Nearly 10 million new voters — 84% of them under age 34 — have registered for Nigeria's general election on Feb. 25. Unfortunately, more than one-tenth were told to come back because their applications were invalid in a country with a troubled history of problems at the ballot box.
3.3: Italy's PM Giorgia Meloni wants to do what even the mighty Roman Empire could not: build a 3.3-kilometer (2.05-mile) bridge connecting the mainland to the island of Sicily. The government says the project would bring in big bucks for Italy's poorest region, but critics have panned the idea as political grandstanding.
18: At least 18 people — including Ukraine's Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi — died in a helicopter crash near Kyiv on Wednesday. We don't know yet if the cause was an accident or a Russian attack. Monastyrskyi is the most senior Ukrainian official to have perished since the war began almost 11 months ago.NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Finland's President Sauli Niinisto and Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson pose after signing a document during a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain.
What We're Watching: Turkey backs off, Texas migrant tragedy, bombshell Jan. 6 testimony, Iran woos BRICS
Turkey opens NATO door to Finland and Sweden
The first day of the NATO Summit in Madrid brought concrete results. Turkey, Finland, and Sweden came to an agreement that addresses Ankara’s security concerns and paves the path to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The Nordics’ joint bid for membership, inspired by Russian aggression in Ukraine, was at the center of the summit’s agenda. Accession demands consensus, and Turkey had raised objections, making security-centric demands from Stockholm and Helsinki that threatened to slow the process. In response, Sweden and Finland have suspended a 2019 arms embargo against Ankara and agreed to cut assistance to the People’s Protection Units, an armed group affiliated with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, Turkey’s enemy. Some of Ankara’s requests still need to be discussed, but Turkey is walking away from its veto option, swinging the doors open to Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has said the expansion doesn’t threaten Russia but warned that Moscow would respond to any extension of military infrastructure into that region.
Will latest Jan. 6 testimony move the needle?
The ongoing January 6 hearings on Capitol Hill took a notable turn on Tuesday when a former aide to then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows provided new details about what went down that day. Crucially, Cassidy Hutchinson – who had unfettered access to the president’s inner circle – testified that Trump encouraged rioters to descend on the US Capitol knowing that many of them were armed with weapons. Hutchinson also testified that Trump said former Vice President Mike Pence was deserving of the mob’s wrath because he rebuffed Trump’s plea to reject the 2020 election results. She said she cleaned up a mess from Trump throwing his ketchup-soaked lunch against the wall in anger after former Attorney General William Barr gave a news interview in which he said he had not found widespread voter fraud. Hutchinson also said that Meadows, her former boss, later sought a pardon for his role in the events on that fateful day. Some legal analysts say that Trump allegedly knowing members of the crowd were armed and encouraging them to march to the Capitol could open him up to criminal charges. But will it impact American voters who are more deeply divided than ever ahead of November’s midterms?
Texas migrant tragedy and Biden’s immigration dilemma
The dual problem of a broken US immigration system and chronic instability in Central America was highlighted again this week when a truck filled with dozens of dead migrants was discovered near San Antonio, Texas. At least 46 people – including Mexican, Honduran, and Guatemalan nationals – were found dead in an abandoned tractor-trailer amid 100-degree temperatures. At least 16 others, including children, were taken to the hospital, where four later died, raising the death toll to 50. This tragedy, the deadliest US immigration event in recent years, highlights the ongoing challenge President Joe Biden faces in making good on his promise for a more "humane" immigration system. So what has the administration been trying to do? First, it sought to lift the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires migrants seeking entry to the US to wait in towns south of the border while their asylum applications are considered. That case is now awaiting a decision by the Supreme Court after Republican states sued to keep it in place. Biden has also sought to lift the Trump-era Title 42, which allowed the US to stop processing asylum claims due to COVID. For now, a federal court has banned Biden from lifting the law, which leaves the president open to mounting criticism from the left flank of his party.