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Kenyan-inspired protests spread across Africa
Kenyan President William Rutonominated four opposition ministers to his new “broad-based” cabinet on Wednesday to appease growing government dissatisfaction – a move that's already being labeled a corrupt bribe by protesters. Earlier this month, Ruto fired most of his cabinet after weeks of student-led protests against proposed tax hikes and government corruption led to 50 deaths and calls for his resignation.
Wednesday's move came after last week’s appointment of 11 ministers – six of whom had been in the previous cabinet – drawing concerns that Ruto’s pledges for radical change were just words and that he will continue to choose personal politics over national interests. Protesters have been urged to accept Ruto’s concessions and engage in constructive dialogue, but demonstrations continue as Ruto refuses to step down.
New Kenyan-inspired protests. These calls for change are now being echoed across the continent. In Uganda, youths inspired by their Kenyan counterparts have taken to the streets in anti-corruption protests – a move authoritarian President Yoweri Museveniwarned was “playing with fire.” Ugandan forces besieged the activists’ headquarters on Monday, and authorities arrested more than 40 people – including three opposition lawmakers – at banned protests the following day.
Hoping to mirror the successes of Kenyan protests, young Nigerians have also taken to social media to organize a demonstration on Aug. 1 against the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has called on youths not to join the “sinister” protests, as the government begs for more time to address economic hardships.
Hard Numbers: Columbia punishes deans, Iran boosts missile output, UN accuses Rwanda of fighting in Congo, Colombia protects the forest
3: Columbia University on Monday removed three deans from their positions over antisemitic text messages they exchanged in a group chat during a late-May event about Jewish life on campus in the wake of protests about Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. The three have been placed on indefinite leave. For our complete on-the-ground coverage of the upheaval at Columbia this spring, led by GZERO’s Riley Callanan, see here.
2: Iran has been ramping up its output of ballistic missiles at two key production facilities, according to satellite imagery. Tehran’s most prominent buyers of the missiles include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah paramilitaries in Lebanon and, of course, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which signed a missile deal with Iran in 2022.
3,000-4,000: A new UN report alleges that 3,000-4,000 regular Rwandan Army forces are fighting alongside M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a serious allegation that follows years of accusations that Rwanda is deliberately destabilizing its neighbor. Alarmingly, the report also implicates Uganda — which had deployed a force to fight the rebels as part of a regional military intervention to support Congo — in providing support for M23, essentially playing both sides of the conflict.
305: Deforestation in Colombia fell by more than a third last year, to just 305 square miles, the lowest figure on record. The decline comes atop a 20% fall the previous year. About half of the deforestation was in the Colombian Amazon. President Gustavo Petro has sought to rein in corporate access to the rainforest, but orders from local guerilla groups to stop cutting down trees have also helped. Experts warn that despite progress, droughts caused by the hot-weather El Niño weather pattern this year could push up deforestation.
Hard Numbers: Trump and RNC fundraising haul, NATO’s long-term plan for Ukraine, Uganda’s anti-gay law upheld, Eurozone inflation cools
65.6 million: Former President Donald Trump and the RNC raised $65.6 million in March, ending the month with $93.1 million in cash on hand. This should be welcome news to Trump as he faces a slew of money problems. President Joe Biden has been outpacing Trump in terms of 2024 fundraising so far, but his campaign has yet to release numbers for last month.
107 billion: NATO is considering a plan for a $107 billion, five-year fund for Ukraine. The proposal, pushed by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, has been met with skepticism by some members of the alliance — particularly Hungary. Ukraine has relied heavily on foreign aid amid its war with Russia, but internal divisions in the West have seen assistance dry up in recent months. Stoltenberg says the alliance needs to ensure Ukraine is supported for the “long haul.”
14: Uganda’s constitutional court on Wednesday slapped down a petition to overturn the country’s controversial anti-gay law, which permits the death penalty for “aggravated homosexuality,” among other harsh and discriminatory penalties. The petition was put forward by 14 people, including legislators, activists, and law professors. One of the petitioners pledged to appeal the decision.
2.4: Eurozone inflation surprisingly fell last month, raising expectations for a rate cut in June. Consumer prices were 2.4% higher in March compared to last year, down from 2.6% in February.Hard Numbers: Deadly terror attack in Paris, troubled South China Sea waters, migrants in English Channel, COP28 methane plans, twins for 70-year-old mom
3: A 26-year-old French national who had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State attacked three people near the Eiffel Tower in Paris late Saturday, killing a German tourist and leaving two others, including a British man, wounded. President Emmanuel Macron called the incident "a terrorist attack."
135: More than 135 Chinese vessels “swarmed” the Julian Felipe reef off the coast of the Philippines in the South China Sea on Sunday. China and the Philippines have been involved in an increasing number of such incidents, as China aggressively asserts its claim to the sea under its so-called nine-dash line.
190: French authorities rescued 190 migrants off the coast of Calais in northern France over the weekend. The migrants were trying to cross the English Channel on dinghies to reach Britain, but authorities did not specify from which country the migrants had originally come.
30: At this week’s COP28 meeting in the UAE, the Biden administration unveiled final rules aimed at reducing the US oil and gas industry’s release of methane to help in the fight against climate change. Nations attending the summit had to detail how they will cut methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030.
70:A 70-year-old Ugandan woman has become the oldest woman in Africa to give birth. Safina Namukwaya delivered a boy and a girl on Wednesday by cesarean section after conceiving through IVF. Born at 34 weeks' gestation, the babies are healthy and weigh 2 kilograms each. They were Namukwaya’s second delivery in three years, following the birth of a girl in 2020.Hard Numbers: The world gets set to vote, Myanmar rebels make gains, Uganda nabs terror boss, Israel’s Cabinet tangles over West Bank taxes, Jury convicts SBF
40: If you love to “get out the vote,” then next year is your time to shine. No fewer than 40 different countries, representing more than 40% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP, will go to the polls in 2024. Some of the standout elections include those in Taiwan, India, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, possibly Ukraine, the European Parliament, and the United States.
4: Myanmar’s military junta has lost control of four towns along the Chinese border, including a key trade hub, as ethnic militias in the area ramp up their insurgency against the government. Beijing on Thursday called for a cease-fire in the conflict, which the UN fears has displaced thousands of people.
6: Ugandan forces say they’ve captured the leader of an Islamic State-linked insurgent militia in a raid earlier this week that killed six of his henchmen. The commander is accused of murdering two foreign tourists and their guide in a national park several weeks ago.
30: After a heated Israeli cabinet debate about whether to release tax revenue that it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority, the government agreed late Thursday to transfer the funds -- but there's a catch. At least 30% of the money, a portion destined for bureaucrats in the Gaza Strip who are still on the PA payroll, will be withheld. The decision was a compromise between hardliners who wanted to withhold the funds entirely because the PA hasn't explicitly condemned Hamas and pragmatists who thought it unwise to further weaken the PA at a time of rising West Bank unrest.
7: On Thursday, a New York federal jury found crypto exchange FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried guilty of stealing billions of dollars from customers, convicting him of all seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. He now awaits sentencing -- set for March 28, 2024 -- and faces up to 115 years in prison.
Hard Numbers: Uganda charges gay men, EU Ukraine aid hiccup, Amhara death toll, brain food in Australia
2: Two Ugandan men could face the death penalty after being charged with “aggravated homosexuality” under the country’s new anti-gay law. The legislation calls for life imprisonment for same-sex intercourse and the death penalty for “aggravated” cases, which involve sex with people who are underage, disabled, or elderly. Read about LGBTQ rights around the globe here.
183: At least 183 people have been killed in recent clashes between Ethiopian federal troops and local militias from the Amhara region, who say the government has tried to undermine Amhara’s security and autonomy following the recent war in the neighboring region of Tigray. Read more here.
86 billion: An €86 billion EU spending package is in peril because it includes additional aid for Ukraine, which some member states are reluctant to approve amid their own economic and fiscal struggles. After a year and a half of war, with no clear end in sight, the fate of the fiscal request will be a bellwether for broader EU support for Kyiv.
8: In a world first, surgeons in Australia removed an 8cm long worm known as Ophidascaris robertsi from the brain of a woman who had complained of memory loss and depression. This specific parasite had previously been found only in pythons, large numbers of which happen to live near the woman’s home. Scientists say instances of animal-to-human transmission of diseases and parasites are increasing as human and animal habitats increasingly overlap.Hard Numbers: Meet Bard, grim new climate report, Colombia’s Toro ban, Uganda’s anti-LGBTQ law, IMF approves Sri Lankan relief
1.5: A new UN report says the world has less than a decade to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the 2015 Paris Agreement’s target). Industrialized countries must halve greenhouse gasses by 2030 and halt carbon dioxide emissions by the 2050s to avoid cataclysmic flooding, droughts, heat waves, and species extinction.
8: Bullfighting remains legal in eight countries worldwide, but that may soon change. The majority of Colombians want to end the practice, which has been a tradition since colonial times. Colombia’s Senate recently voted to ban bullfighting, but the legislation now faces a tough challenge in the lower house, where an earlier proposed ban was shot down last year.
10: Uganda’s parliament passed a harsh new anti-LGBTQ bill on Tuesday that could lead to 10-year prison sentences for those who engage in “same-sex activity” or identify as LGBTQ. If President Yoweri Museveni signs the bill – he has suggested he supports it – Uganda will become the first African nation to criminalize simply identifying as LGBTQ.
2.9 billion: Sri Lanka has secured a $2.9 billion rescue package from the IMF to aid in its economic recovery. After defaulting on its sovereign debt last year, the island nation faced its worst economic disaster since independence. The package will likely boost international investment, but strict austerity measures will hurt Sri Lankan households already struggling with sky-high inflation.
What We’re Watching: Russian rhetoric & retreat, Ugandan “tweeting general” canned, Colombia-ELN talks resume
Russians retreat, but what comes next?
It’s a case of rhetoric vs. reality. On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin signed constitutional laws formalizing Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions and vowed to stabilize them. Yet continued Ukrainian advances in one of those regions, Kherson, are now forcing Russian troops to beat a partial retreat. Russia’s acting governor in the region, Kirill Stremousov, has even admitted openly that Putin’s forces are “regrouping to get their strength together and strike back.” Does the Russian retreat raise the risk that Putin, increasingly on his back foot, turns to the use of the once-unthinkable — nuclear weapons — to regain the advantage? While many analysts say such an escalation is unlikely, Moscow has signaled — through the reported movement of nuclear-capable equipment — an ability to make good on the threats. Increased domestic criticism of the war within Russia and losses on the ground no doubt have Putin feeling cornered. So the question remains, how far will he go?
Ugandan president sacks “tweeting general” son
Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni fired his son, four-star Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, for going too far on Twitter by threatening to invade Nairobi, the capital of Kenya. Kainerugaba is famous for using the social media platform to weigh in on foreign policy. Some of his greatest hits are supporting Tigrayan rebels in Ethiopia or guerrillas in the eastern DRC as well as offering 100 heads of cattle, presumably as dowry, to incoming Italian PM Giorgia Meloni. Kainerugaba's fans say it's just light humor, but some Ugandans are wary of the military playing politics and resent his privilege. Moving forward, the dismissal will likely hurt Kainerugaba's chances of succeeding his 78-year-old dad, one of Africa's longest-serving leaders — although Museveni has always denied he's being groomed for the top job. Who might benefit? Opposition leader and former singer Bobi Wine, who in June 2021 failed in his second bid to beat Museveni for the presidency. If you’re interested in his shenanigans, follow Uganda’s “tweeting general” @mkainerugaba.
Colombia restarts ELN peace talks
Looking to realize new President Gustavo Petro's campaign promise of bringing "total peace" to Colombia, the government on Wednesday resumed peace talks with the rebels of the National Liberation Army, or ELN by its initials in Spanish. Petro wants the two sides to pick up where they left off in 2019, when the previous Colombian government called negotiations after the ELN killed 21 police cadets in a bombing in Bogotá. The ELN — at war with the government since the 1960s — was not party to the historic 2016 peace accord between the government and the much larger FARC guerrilla group. But the leftist Petro — who belonged to a guerrilla group himself in his youth — sees an opening for peace, as the ELN responded well to his election victory. One big question is whether the group’s older political leaders, who have lived in Cuban exile for years, have enough sway over younger members in Colombia today to enforce a sustainable peace. Petro is also counting on goodwill from guerrilla-friendly Venezuela, one of the guarantor countries in the talks. Colombia has recently resumed diplomatic ties and reopened the border with its neighbor.
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