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The Graphic Truth: How NATO absorbed its old foes
For almost half a century, NATO and the Soviet-backed Warsaw Pact alliance glowered at each other from across the Iron Curtain. But after the USSR collapsed, NATO expanded eastward by welcoming former Eastern Bloc members – a development Moscow viewed as a direct challenge to its sphere of influence.
This dynamic has again been a massive point of contention since Moscow unleashed a war against Ukraine, causing states like Finland and Sweden to submit hurried bids to join the defense alliance. Finland joined in the spring. And this week, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had been holding up Sweden's bid, finally gave Stockholm the green light. Here's a look at the history of the alliance's expansion.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin walks to deliver his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow.
What We’re Watching: Putin blames the West, China in Ukraine war, Sunak close to Northern Ireland deal
Putin blames the West … for everything
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin played all the greatest hits Tuesday when he took to the podium for a State of the Union address to Russian legislators and the military just days out from the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war. In his typically defiant fashion, Putin said that the West “started the war” and warned that Moscow would not back down from its objectives in Ukraine, emphasizing Russian unity on the issue. He also revived the (debunked) justification that the war was crucial to “protect Russia and liquidate the neo-Nazi threat” from Kyiv. Crucially, Putin implied that Russia would break with the New START treaty, which limits Moscow and Washington to deploying 1,550 nuclear weapons a piece, though Russia has reportedly already exceeded that number. Suspending the treaty would also block the US from monitoring compliance. This comes just hours before US President Joe Biden will deliver a speech in Warsaw, where he is expected to again frame the war in Ukraine as a fight for democracy itself.
US-China exchange barbs over Ukraine
China on Monday denied US accusations that it might provide Russia with lethal aid — weapons — to attack Ukraine, telling Washington to stay out of its (albeit complicated) relationship with Moscow. After meeting Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, over the weekend at the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that giving the Russians lethal aid would be a "serious problem" for Beijing, though he didn’t give further details. In the early stages of the war, the US sounded the alarm about Russia asking Beijing for help and China possibly looking to supply Russia with arms, despite the fact that Beijing actually buys weaponsfrom Moscow and doesn't sell any to the Russians. Ultimately, China didn't answer Russia’s plea for arms — likely to avoid Western sanctions. Now, however, Blinken says that Xi Jinping wants to have his cake and eat it too by calling in public for a negotiated peace in Ukraine while privately supplying Russia with all sorts of non-lethal stuff, such as spare parts for Su-35 fighter jets, to help Vladimir Putin defeat Ukraine. This week, we'll be keeping an eye on Wang as he travels to Moscow and perhaps meets with Putin ahead of a big Xi “peace” speech reportedly planned for Friday.
Brexit never (really) ends
As soon as Tuesday, British PM Rishi Sunak aims to finally confirm a deal with the EU on post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade rules. (Once again, this is the arrangement that his predecessor, Boris Johnson, reached with Brussels to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK.) Sunak hopes that the agreement will both restart Northern Ireland's power-sharing government, currently boycotted by DUP unionists who want to keep the EU at arm's length, and steal the thunder from hardcore Brexiteers within the Conservative Party led by Johnson who back a bill allowing British ministers to override provisions in the 2020 Brexit agreement. Still, it won’t be easy for Sunak to sell the deal to the DUP, which fears being perceived as selling out to Brussels, and to the Tory Euroskeptics, who want to have a say even if the agreement is not put to a vote in parliament. And all this, mind you, is just one of Sunak's myriad ongoing headaches … with Johnson looking over his shoulder.
Members of of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepare amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Bahmut, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: A looming Russian offensive, Biden’s State of the Union, Lasso’s losses
Ukraine prepares for Russian assault amid troubling rumors
The Institute for the Study of War, a military think tank based in Washington, DC, has forecast that Russia will launch a major military offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks. (Russia remains much less likely to again send troops from Belarus toward Kyiv because Ukrainian troops are now even better armed and positioned in the north than when they routed Russian forces last spring.) Ukrainian intel officials say Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian forces to capture the full territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of March, and Ukraine’s defense minister has warned that Russian forces may have mobilized a lot more soldiers than has been widely reported in Western media. Preparations for a Russian offensive and a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive come at a tricky moment for Ukraine. Rumors are flying that President Volodymyr Zelensky may replace Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov following the ministry’s suspected involvement in a corruption scheme involving overpayment for food – though Reznikov has not been personally implicated. We’ll be watching to see what happens next, but Zelensky has not yet publicly addressed the conflicting reports.
Ecuador’s Lasso trips himself up
Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso was hoping that a successful constitutional referendum would boost his low approval ratings. It didn’t turn out that way. Defying pollsters, voters on Sunday rejected all eight proposals, including key amendments to allow Ecuador to extradite narco suspects and to slim down the country’s fractious Congress. Adding insult to injury, opposition figures from the left-wing party of exiled former President Rafael Correa also won control of several key municipalities, including the capital, Quito, and Guayaquil, the country’s largest city, traditionally a center-right stronghold. The results are a big blow to the conservative Lasso, who was nearly impeached last summer during widespreadindigenous protests. Left-leaning “Correismo” is now the main political force to reckon with ahead of the 2025 general elections. Will the deeply unpopular Lasso make it that far?
What to expect from Biden’s State of the Union
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden will deliver his second State of the Union address in what’s broadly considered to be the prelude to his reelection announcement in the weeks ahead. Seated in front of VP Kamala Harris and newly elected House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Biden will seek to reinforce his image as a problem solver who’s above the fray of petty partisanship. Of greater interest, however, is whether he can convince the American people that efforts to curb cost-of-living pressures are working. While data suggests that prices for many commodities are coming down – and unemployment is at a five-decade low – it can be difficult to sell that to everyday Americans who still feel the pinch of inflation at the grocery store. Crucially, there will be plenty of outsiders tuning in, too: Ukraine’s government will be looking at how Republican lawmakers respond to Biden’s call for ongoing support to Kyiv. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be keen to see whether Biden seeks to escalate the war of words over the recent spy balloon scandal. After the speech, Biden will make stops in Florida and Wisconsin, two battleground states, suggesting that the 2024 race will soon heat up.
Ukrainian troops in the midst of the conflict to take back control of Kharkiv province from Russian forces.
What We’re Watching: Ukraine's gains, Democrats' midterm odds, IMF to offer food aid
Jubilant Ukrainians continue to advance
Ukraine’s military gains of the past few days have emboldened its fighters and leaders. An attack meant to test Russian strength at various points along the front in northeast Kharkiv province became a major counteroffensive when many Russians simply abandoned their equipment and ran. As of Monday, Ukraine has grabbed more territory in five days than the Russian military captured in the past five months. To demonstrate it can still inflict punishment, Russia responded with an artillery blitz aimed at knocking out electricity and water, initially causing widespread outages across Ukraine. But President Volodymyr Zelensky captured the Ukrainian mood on social media with a response aimed at Moscow: “We will be without gas, lights, water and food … and WITHOUT you!” Ukraine’s defense minister has warned his forces to brace for a Russian counterattack, though it appears Russia lacks the manpower and the weapons for an effective near-term military response in Kharkiv province. Russia’s war effort is not collapsing. Its forces remain dug in across much of the Donbas region and along the Black Sea coast. Though Ukraine has seized momentum, this war is far from finished. But Ukrainian forces have again demonstrated that, whatever the Kremlin claims, Putin’s war is not going to plan.
US midterm elections: Do Dems stand a chance?
Political analysts long predicted that midterm elections this November would be a washout, with Republicans slated to gain control of both chambers of Congress. It’s a common trend in midterms, which are seen as a referendum on the current president – and a poor showing for Dems would be consistent with President Joe Biden’s record-low polling numbers in recent months. But some surveys now suggest that after a series of legislative wins over the summer, the Democrats could retain a narrow majority in the Senate and lose the House – but only just. According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of polls, support for Democrats in a general election is currently running at 45%, just ahead of the GOP's 43.7%. However, some analysts are questioning whether the polls could be wrong … again. After polling proved to be dismal in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, forecasts for 2020 were more accurate. Still, they overstated Biden’s lead in several swing states, including Ohio and North Carolina, that Trump ended up winning. Yet other pollsters say that this year’s vote could buck the midterm trend in part because of one key issue: abortion. The Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade already proved to be a galvanizing force in Kansas. Will it affect Dems' chances in crucial districts come November?
IMF to unveil food aid program
The International Monetary Fund will reportedly issue emergency funding to emerging-market economies suffering from shortages due to the global food crisis caused largely by the war in Ukraine. Though details remain scarce, the IMF board is reportedly weighing whether to dole out funds to help import-reliant countries acquire food at a time when much of the world’s grain supply has been stuck at Ukrainian Black Sea ports because of a Russian blockade. (A recent deal brokered by Turkey has seen some grain shipments start to resume.) Before the war, Ukraine and Russia accounted for almost one third of global wheat exports, but food prices have surged and supply has dwindled since Russia invaded Ukraine, leading some crisis-ridden countries, like Somalia, to the brink of famine. Importantly, the IMF deal would not impose the strict conditions of regular IMF funding, which often requires cash-strapped governments to impose unpopular reforms. What’s more, it would temporarily lift low-income country's borrowing quotas by 50%. Indeed, this sort of temporary no-strings-attached lending could boost the image of the notoriously strict IMF at a time when China has emerged as an “IMF competitor,” doling out billions of dollars to at-risk nations without demanding structural reforms in return.
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Shortages reach far beyond food
The war in Ukraine is just the latest crisis to befall global supply chains in recent years, and it appears likely to get worse before it finally eases. It’s not just about interrupted flows, shortages, and higher prices for food and fuel. According to a report published in May 2022 by Dun & Bradstreet, a total of at least 615,000 businesses operating globally depend on supplies from either Russia or Ukraine. About 90% of those firms are based in the United States, but supply chains in Europe, China, Canada, Australia, and Brazil are heavily impacted. According to the report, a total of 25 countries have a high dependency on Russia and Ukraine for a variety of commodities.
Five months into the war, it’s clear that the likeliest outcome of the current fighting will be a long-term stalemate. Russia doesn’t appear militarily strong enough to take and hold all of Ukraine, and Ukraine doesn’t appear strong enough to drive Russian troops completely off Ukrainian land. As a result, those who depend on resources and production inputs from Russia and Ukraine now know they’ll likely need to invest in new suppliers of hundreds of different commodities and products – from sunflower seeds to turbojets – to build better resilience into their supply chains, rather than simply waiting for the fighting to end.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy awards service dog and bomb sniffer "Patron."
Hard Numbers: Ukraine's canine hero, IS strikes in Sinai, another kidnapping by Haitian gangs, Havana explosion
200: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has handed out a number of medals to service members fighting against the Russian onslaught. The latest recipient of a war-time accolade? A brave soul named Patron, a petite Jack Russell Terrier and bomb sniffer who has identified more than 200 explosive devices.
11: A weekend attack by IS operatives in the Sinai Peninsula left 11 Egyptian soldiers dead, injuring several more. Sinai, a hotbed of terrorism after the Muslim Brotherhood was ousted in 2013, had become less volatile since Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi launched a military operation there in 2018 to root out terror groups.
17: Haitian gang members have kidnapped at least 17 people traveling on a bus outside the capital. The group includes Haitians, Turks, and Dominican nationals. Kidnappings for ransom have become common in Haiti since the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse last summer. Since then, rival gangs have been fighting over large swaths of the country.
30: At least 30 people were killed in a hotel explosion in Havana, the Cuban capital, after the top-tier Hotel Saratoga – which has hosted guests including Beyonce and Madonna – was rocked by a suspected gas leak. The hotel was about to reopen after a pandemic-related two-year closure and signals yet another blow for Cuba’s economy, which has become increasingly reliant on tourism.
The Graphic Truth: What Ukraine's lost
Russia’s offensive in Ukraine, now in its second month, has wreaked havoc on the Ukrainian people, 9% of whom have been forced to flee the country. Ukraine’s eastern flank has been particularly hard hit. In the besieged city of Mariupol, for instance, 80% of infrastructure has now been destroyed. As the war wages on, and with the death toll well into the thousands, we take a look at the vast damage to infrastructure and the civilian toll.
A view shows destroyed military vehicles on a street in the town of Bucha in the Kyiv region
What's the latest from Ukraine?
In the early hours of Friday morning, Russian troops seized control of Europe's largest nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine. After some raised the alarm of a potential "Chernobyl moment," international monitors said the initial blaze had been extinguished, and there was no indication that radiation had spilled.
Just a day after reportedly taking the southern city of Kherson, Russian forces on Thursday encircled the strategic Black Sea port of Mariupol in the southeast. Taking this city would not only diminish Ukraine’s access to international shipping lanes, but it would also nearly complete a “land bridge” extending from mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula. Further west, the city of Odessa, Ukraine’s largest port, readied itself for a Russian assault.
Zelensky invites Putin to sit down at a normal-sized table with him. The Ukrainian president, speaking to journalists Thursday, invited his Russian counterpart to talk things out. “I don’t bite, I’m a normal dude,” he said, “what are you afraid of?” Putin, meanwhile, delivered a stone-faced message to the Russian people claiming that everything is going to plan, praised the heroism of Russian troops fighting against “nazis,” and reiterated his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people.”
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to humanitarian corridors in several areas of the country, in order to allow civilians to leave conflict zones. Already more than 1 million people have fled Ukraine, making this the worst refugee crisis involving European countries since the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.
US-Russia hotline set up. The two sides have set up what is known as a “deconfliction hotline,” which is meant to help avoid military miscalculations that could lead to a direct confrontation between the two superpowers. A similar speed-dial was set up between them in Syria several years ago. Given that the US and Russia have the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, this is a good thing.
US expands sanctions on Russian oligarchs. Washington announced new asset freezes and travel bans on a slew of powerful Russians close to Putin. Those on the blacklist include media tycoon Alisher Usmanov, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and several of Putin’s old judo buddies and former colleagues from his KGB days, all of whom have grown fabulously wealthy during his reign.