Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take on the back of the Riyadh meeting between the Americans and the Ukrainians, a very different reaction to when President Zelensky was visiting the White House just a week and a bit ago. Here we have a Zelensky emissary, senior delegation meeting with Rubio, secretary of State and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and coming out with a significant improvement in Ukraine's position.
First, an end of the suspension of delivery of US military aid and intelligence provision, which is critical for the Ukrainians being able to continue to defend themselves. And in return, Ukraine and the United States both announcing acceptance of terms for a 30-day, no condition ceasefire, end of the fighting exactly where it is right now. No territory changes, hands, no promises of anything beyond that. No guarantees about NATO, no promises not to join NATO, nothing like that. And now it goes to the Russians. And that is clearly not what the Russians wanted to hear.
Now, Zelensky played the cards he doesn't have much better since leaving the White House, saying he would indeed go ahead and sign a critical minerals deal, writing a letter apologizing to the American president for any misunderstandings when they had that meeting together in the Oval Office. But now, Zelensky is no longer an obstacle from Trump's perspective on the path to peace, he's accepted Trump's terms. I expect the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order, and the question is for Putin.
Now, Putin is of course gaining territory. He has momentum, and so he doesn't have an awful lot of interest in accepting an immediate ceasefire right now, especially not with any strings attached to it. I mean, he has all sorts of strings he wants to attach to. It wants to ensure that Zelensky isn't president, wants to make sure that Ukraine can, at no point, ever join NATO, has broader conditions in terms of NATO not expanding, of the Americans pulling troops back from their rotations in Poland, in the Baltic states, all sorts of demands that Putin has. And furthermore, Putin has engaged with the United States, both indirectly, as we saw in Riyadh a couple of weeks ago, as well as directly, in a 90 minute phone call with President Trump. And while Ukraine was a part of those conversations, it wasn't the focus. The focus for Putin was a much broader conversation about realigning the Americans and Russians to work together, work together on broader security issues like the Arctic and on nuclear arms control, get the sanctions off that the United States has imposed against Russia and individual oligarchs, and generally normalized relations. And none of that is, at least as of right now, on the table for Putin.
What is on the table for Putin, right now, is accept a 30-day ceasefire, with the lines of territorial control being exactly where they are, including the occupation of a small amount of Russian territory incursed by the Ukrainians who have been fighting there. And I suspect that Putin really doesn't want to accept that. So if you're Putin, what do you do? Well, one thing you do is you try to see how fast you can actually get a face-to-face with Trump so that you don't just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it, which of course is essential to any larger deal that the Americans and Russians cut because the Europeans continue to see Russia as their principal adversary, their principal enemy. Will he be successful in doing that?
Well, one open question will be, we just heard from Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, but what are we hearing from Trump? Is Trump going to completely support everything they just said? Will he endorse this deal with no qualifiers and say that Putin now has to accept it? Because if he does, that gives less wiggle room for Putin. If he doesn't, and he talks about how this is a great opportunity and we want to have a better relationship, then it gives Putin a little bit of time. It also allows him to put conditionality on what, as of the Riyadh meeting, did not have any conditions.
So certainly for those of us following this very closely, a good meeting for the Ukrainians, a relief for the Europeans, that felt like they were about to have their guy in Kyiv thrown under a bus. There's some rehabilitation that's actually happened. And a very open question for Putin who is a tough negotiator and has shown no indication, heretofore, that he's interested in an immediate ceasefire. He is the one that stands to lose the most from accepting the terms as they just came out of Riyadh and it's very hard to imagine that he'll accept them by themselves, as they are. What are the consequences of that? That's what we're going to have to watch, play out.
Ukraine ceasefire talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, March 11 2025.
Ukraine, US ceasefire - Russia's move?
Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday jointly announced a proposal fora 30-day ceasefire with Russia, pending approval from the Kremlin.
The deal, brokered during negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, comes the same day that Ukraine mounted itsbiggest drone attack to date on Moscow, killing at least three people, damaging buildings, and briefly shutting down four major airports. The show of force came after Russia stepped up attacks on Ukraine, following US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s shocking shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointedly addressed Moscow, saying “Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking. And now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no. If they say no, then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
The US also confirmed it willimmediately restore intelligence sharing and military aid with Kyiv, both of which had been suspended last week. A minerals deal between Ukraine and the US will also move forward “as soon as possible.” And in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macronurged 30 nations to begin security planning for Ukraine’s long-term stability.
Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer says he expects “the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order.” But Putin’s response is another matter, he says, noting that the Russian leader is likely to try to see how quickly he can get a sit-down with Trump. That way “you don’t just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it.” For more of Ian's insights on this, click here to watch his latest QuickTake.
U.S. President Donald Trump makes an announcement from White House March 3, 2025.
Will Trump make a deal that leaves Europe behind?
Despite European leaders declaring that they will lead a “coalition of the willing” to reach an end to the Ukraine war, the Trump administration seems focused on striking a deal with Russia – regardless of whether it actually ends the conflict, or whether the EU and Ukraine agree to it.
“From [Donald] Trump’s perspective, the more important deal is the Russia deal. I think the question is what role, if any, Ukraine peace is going to have in the US-Russia agreement,” says GZERO President Ian Bremmer.
Meanwhile, the US has announced that it’s pausing its cyber offensive efforts against Russia as the two countries rekindle their relationship. That directive came before Trump’s explosive Friday meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, but it is a further signal of Trump’s proclivity for Putin and his weakening support for Ukraine.
The two countries also are reportedly discussing a deal for American investors to restore Nord Stream 2, the natural gas pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany, in exchange for a stake in the company. The pipeline was central to Europe’s energy reliance on Moscow before it was destroyed in 2022, and could be another sweetener to push Trump to make a Ukraine deal on Russia’s terms by enabling the US to profit from the flow of gas if Western sanctions are lifted. But Germany has not expressed interest in revitalizing the pipeline – or in giving Russia and the US more leverage over its energy supply. The conversation — like the initial Ukraine discussions between the US and Russia — again sidelines Europe as it tries to ramp up defense spending (its defense stocks surged on Monday) and signals its support for Ukraine.
The rub. Europe and Ukraine are being denied seats at the table because, when it comes to dealing with the transactional US president, they have less to offer Trump than Russia. “There are clearly some economic sweeteners at play here between the broader Putin and Trump circles,” Bremmer said. “The cash register’s open in this environment.”
In contrast, experts say Trump sees Ukraine as being out of cards and the EU as freeloaders, and he prefers negotiating bilaterally with Putin than trying to get a bunch of European allies to fall in line.
The next few months are critical: Trump seems set on making a deal with Russia – but he’s also said he’s not ready to abandon NATO altogether, reaffirming his commitment to Article 5 in talks with British PM Keir Starmer and to keeping US troops in Poland.
The question is whether his deal with Russia undermines European security. If Ukraine can revive its critical minerals offer and the Europeans can demonstrate meaningful leadership in defense spending and securing Ukraine, Trump could sign a more European-friendly deal and sell it as a victory to voters, claiming he succeeded in making Europe contribute its fair share where previous administrations have failed. If not, the EU could see a full US-Russia reconciliation that could leave them strategically adrift.
But Bremmer says Trump could make a deal that withdraws the US from the conflict without securing a cease-fire, which would leave the Europeans in the driver's seat when it comes to negotiating peace. Can Europe broker a cease-fire? Hear what Bremmer thinks in his latest Quick Take.
A view shows destroyed military vehicles on a street in the town of Bucha in the Kyiv region
What's the latest from Ukraine?
In the early hours of Friday morning, Russian troops seized control of Europe's largest nuclear plant in southeastern Ukraine. After some raised the alarm of a potential "Chernobyl moment," international monitors said the initial blaze had been extinguished, and there was no indication that radiation had spilled.
Just a day after reportedly taking the southern city of Kherson, Russian forces on Thursday encircled the strategic Black Sea port of Mariupol in the southeast. Taking this city would not only diminish Ukraine’s access to international shipping lanes, but it would also nearly complete a “land bridge” extending from mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula. Further west, the city of Odessa, Ukraine’s largest port, readied itself for a Russian assault.
Zelensky invites Putin to sit down at a normal-sized table with him. The Ukrainian president, speaking to journalists Thursday, invited his Russian counterpart to talk things out. “I don’t bite, I’m a normal dude,” he said, “what are you afraid of?” Putin, meanwhile, delivered a stone-faced message to the Russian people claiming that everything is going to plan, praised the heroism of Russian troops fighting against “nazis,” and reiterated his belief that Ukrainians and Russians are “one people.”
Ukraine and Russia have agreed to humanitarian corridors in several areas of the country, in order to allow civilians to leave conflict zones. Already more than 1 million people have fled Ukraine, making this the worst refugee crisis involving European countries since the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.
US-Russia hotline set up. The two sides have set up what is known as a “deconfliction hotline,” which is meant to help avoid military miscalculations that could lead to a direct confrontation between the two superpowers. A similar speed-dial was set up between them in Syria several years ago. Given that the US and Russia have the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals, this is a good thing.
US expands sanctions on Russian oligarchs. Washington announced new asset freezes and travel bans on a slew of powerful Russians close to Putin. Those on the blacklist include media tycoon Alisher Usmanov, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and several of Putin’s old judo buddies and former colleagues from his KGB days, all of whom have grown fabulously wealthy during his reign.