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Can the US stay ahead of Russia & China in the space race?
Should the United States be concerned about Chinese and Russian military activity in space? And is the US prepared for space warfare?
Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) joined Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about the future of US space policy and the 21st-century space race with Russia and China. Senator Kelly, a former NASA astronaut and Space Shuttle commander, says that while the recent achievements of China’s space program are impressive, the US is still way ahead of China in any space endeavor. His main concern? Making sure we stay ahead of both Russia and China and prevent them from using space as a domain for future military conflict. Kelly also worries that, given Putin’s openness to violating international law, he may renege on the 1967 UN Space Treaty that prevents any country from using the moon for military purposes, officially ending the post-Soviet era of US-Russia space cooperation.
“Every space flight I went on, there were always Russians on board the space station. And that cooperation worked really well,” Kelly tells Bremmer, “What Putin did in Ukraine is indicative of, well, did that even matter?”
Look for the full interview with Senator Mark Kelly on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television soon (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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The Graphic Truth: The cost of the crisis for Ukraine
Ever since Russia started amassing troops along Ukraine’s border and the West began warning about an invasion, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has tried projecting a sense of calm, while noting that alarm bells hurt his country’s fragile economy. Whoever you think is to blame, one thing is clear: the crisis has taken a toll on the Ukrainian currency, the hryvnia, which has shed nearly 10% of its value against the US dollar since November. Here’s a look at how the hryvnia has performed through some key headlines and diplomatic moves along the way.
What do Ukrainians think of all this?
How do civilians prepare for a war they aren't sure is coming? With a possible Russian invasion looming, we got some views on what life is like on the ground in several cities across Ukraine.
We spoke to people from Donetsk, the capital of the Kremlin-backed separatist Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR); from Kharkiv, a city in eastern Ukraine just 25 miles from the Russian border; from Kyiv, the nation’s capital; and from Lviv, the largest city in western Ukraine, located just 60 miles from the Polish frontier.
Here’s what they said.
“This is not new,” says Daniel Bilak, 61, a Canadian-Ukrainian lawyer and former government adviser who has lived in Ukraine for 30 years. Eight years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the start of the separatist conflict in the East, he calls this “just the next phase of the war with Putin.”
According to Bilak, who lives in a small town just outside of Kyiv, people didn’t really start worrying about the recent Russian troop buildup until foreign embassy staffers began leaving last week. That’s when some Kyivans began moving their families to country homes or cities in the west, further from the potential front line.
“As Ukrainians, our philosophy of life is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best,” he says.
As part of that preparation, Bilak and a group of local men his age have been receiving basic military training from a former army major on weekends.
"It's BYOG,” says Bilak, “Bring Your Own Gun.” The Wolverines, as the group calls themselves, could soon become an official volunteer defense unit under a new Ukrainian law.
“It’s a way to channel the anxiety that people have,” Bilak says. “They feel like they have some control over their lives. How effective is that going to be against a platoon of Chechen Spetsnaz [Russian special forces]? I don't know. But if you replicate this in every community, it's not a comfortable place for an invading soldier. And there's a very strong sense that, you know what? We're going to defend this country. Nobody here thinks that this is a suicide mission.”
Daniel Bilak and the Wolverines (photos have been blurred due to safety concerns).
Marta Spodaryk, 28, a Ph.D. student from Lviv who works in Kyiv, said she was hardly aware of the escalating crisis until the past few days when friends from abroad began writing to ask her about US reports that Russia was set to invade Ukraine.
“I was writing my Ph.D. and didn’t have a chance to follow the news,” she says. “Some people here are like me. They don’t feel anything if they aren’t reading the newspaper articles. Some of those who are are really panicking, moving, packing emergency bags, or buying weapons.”
Spodaryk has made a plan with her brother Vitalii, in Lviv, to leave Kyiv if anything happens and travel as far west as she can to meet him and return to their parents’ home.
The feeling, she says, isn’t so much fear. “It’s more like anger. Not fear. If you are afraid you get messy and you can’t think straight to organize yourself. I feel angry because it’s already eight years of this, and now they are threatening us and a lot of people are panicking. My granny called me today from Lviv and I had to tell her that look, everything is fine, that Kyiv is working perfectly. So it kind of angers me. How dare they do this to us again?”
Brother and sister: Marta Spodaryk and Vitalii Chornenkyi
Her brother, Vitalii Chornenkyi, 32, a trial attorney and law professor at Lviv University, said that although Lviv is far from the potential front line, he and his friends are worried about how far the conflict could spread. Prices for imports and fuel have been rising recently with Ukraine’s currency (the hryvnia) weakening under the threat of war, and he’s noticed that people in more footloose professions like IT have already started preparing to leave.
“I’m scared," he says, “but it’s not the horror movie type of fear. It’s different, a kind of tension, an uncertainty, that your whole life and work could suddenly disappear because of this conflict. We feel like we are just marionettes in other countries’ geopolitical games.”
Every time he hears a plane taking off or landing at a nearby airport, he checks online flight trackers to see where it’s coming from and whom it belongs to. Images of Russia’s devastating air war in Syria, he said, have made him worry about what the Russian military might do to his city.
“It’s strange to talk about fear,” he says. “It’s a common problem with Ukrainians. We talk about the tension in the air, but we don’t communicate about our feelings.”
Further east, in the city of Kharkiv near the Russian border, Roman Danilenkov, co-founder of the independent media organization Nakipelo (“fed up,” in Russian and Ukrainian), says the atmosphere is tense, but mainly among people who follow international news. Others are mostly just going about their lives.
He’s talked to his family about escape plans to Western Ukraine. “It’s scary because we have our whole life here,” he says. “But we have to talk about these things. We have plans in our minds, of course, but we don’t know what’s going to happen.”
And although the conflict has been dragging on for almost a decade now, Danilenkov says that it feels different this time. Not only because of the larger Russian force involved, but also because the Ukrainian army is stronger, better equipped, and more capable. “Still,” he says, “we know that the army of the aggressor is much larger.”
Roman Danilenkov and Kateryna Malofieieva
Meanwhile, in separatist-held Donetsk, people’s views of the situation are different. There, says Kateryna Malofieieva, 33, a freelance journalist from Donetsk who covers the conflict from both sides, Russia isn’t seen as a threat. And with few people in the Russian-backed enclave reading western news sources, there is little sense of panic.
What Malofieieva hears about more is simple fatigue with the eight-year-long conflict, and a sense that the current situation is untenable. Living in a territory that is recognized by Russia but isn’t really part of Ukraine, “it’s difficult for people to comprehend who they actually are.” Many in Donetsk, she says, feel that it’s the Ukrainian government that is dragging its feet on a solution.
Whether the current standoff involving Russia, Ukraine, and the West will lead to a durable resolution remains anyone’s guess. Ukrainians are dealing with the tension in myriad ways, but those who spoke with GZERO seemed to agree on one thing: enough is enough.
Is the West united against Russia? Sort of.
Western powers claim that they present a united front against the Kremlin’s current threats in Ukraine. But clearly there are reasons for doubt. President Joe Biden provided more last week when he appeared to question whether NATO would in fact act with “total unity” if Vladimir Putin orders Russian troops across the Ukrainian border.
Do Western allies really agree on a common approach to keeping Russia out of Ukraine? What are the major points of contention among them?
On the economic front, the US is prepared to go big: the White House has been pushing for tougher economic sanctions if the Kremlin encroaches on Ukraine’s sovereignty, including by cracking down on both Russian financial institutions and international entities that lend Russia money. It also has more than 8,500 troops ready to move into Eastern Europe if Russia escalates.
But Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas is undermining efforts to present a united Western front against Russian aggression.
Germany. While some Western governments have sent defensive arms to Ukraine, Berlin has so far refused. It argues that arming Kyiv would encourage both Ukraine and Russia to escalate the conflict. Germany is not only reluctant to send weapons to Ukraine, but it has also scuttled attempts by NATO states, like Estonia, to deliver German-made arms to Ukraine. (Berlin retains some authorization rights over exports of their weapons.) Germany has also refused to back a proposal to cut Moscow off from the global electronic-payment system known as SWIFT.
Facing criticism, Germany’s new government has said that the country’s reluctance to arm the Ukrainians is in part the result of its pacifist foreign policy – an approach required by Germany’s militarist past. But analysts say that German reliance on Russian natural gas – which accounts for half of all its gas imports – better explains Berlin’s hesitancy to draw the Kremlin’s ire.
France. French President Emmanuel Macron is capitalizing on the sense of urgency – and division – to assert himself as Angela Merkel’s replacement as the leader of Europe. Macron has been talking tough on Russia – saying preemptive sanctions are on the table to deter a Russian incursion – while also calling for more diplomacy. Moreover, Macron, who has long advocated for European strategic autonomy, has called for a united Europe to engage with Russia separately from the broader US-NATO dialogue. (On Wednesday, Paris is hosting a group of Ukrainian, Russian, French, and German officials to try to chart a path forward.)
The UK. London has traditionally positioned itself as a “bridge nation” between the European Union and the United States, particularly when US presidents and European leaders have clashed on big geopolitical issues. Though this dynamic has changed since Britain left the EU, the UK is still a powerful NATO player with a lot of strategic leverage. As Putin continues to build up Russia’s military presence on the Ukrainian border, London has aligned closely with Washington, sending more than 2,000 short-range anti-tank missiles to Ukraine in recent days and calling for an “unprecedented package of sanctions.” Indeed, the stakes are lower for London, which gets most of its natural gas imports from Qatar and the US.
The Qatari wildcard. The Biden administration is reportedly in talks with the Qataris, global liquified natural gas heavyweights, to increase supplies to Europe in the event that Russia invades Ukraine.
However, rerouting supply routes is no small feat, particularly because more than 80 percent of Qatari gas is currently tied up in contracts with Asian states. But Eurasia Group analyst Raad Alkadiri says the US plan could work, particularly if it means the Qataris get premium prices for their exports and get to play a more consequential role in geopolitics. Still, Europe is already facing tight gas markets, and it needs to ensure available and secure supplies. At the moment, a lot of it comes from Russia.
In sum, the leaders of NATO countries will continue to insist that they speak with a single voice on questions of Ukraine’s sovereignty and the consequences of potential Russian aggression. But Vladimir Putin has good reason to wonder whether that’s true.Russian Eyes On Ukraine
With Ukrainian elections coming up, Russian pressure mounts. On GZERO World, we look at the Ukrainian Conflict and why Ukraine matters to Russia.
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