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Servicemen of the 12th Special Forces Brigade Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine fire a howitzer towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine April 5, 2024.
Washington lifts ban on controversial Ukrainian brigade
The Biden administration haslifted a long-standing ban on funding for Ukraine’s controversial Azov Brigade. Critics of this regiment, not just in Moscow, say some founding members of a volunteer group called the Azov Battalion, formed 10 years ago in response to Russia’s 2014 aggression in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, had links to neo-Nazis, and the US banned all support for the group. Two years later, aUN report accused the Azov group of “looting of civilian property, leading to displacement” in that region.
But today’s Azov Brigade, now part of Ukraine’s National Guard, claims fighters with links to ultra-nationalists long ago left the group, and a State Department spokesman reportedlytold the BBC that a review “found no evidence of gross violations of human rights” by the current group.
It’s one more sign the White House worries that Russia could make big gains in Ukraine this summer and long-stalled US support for Ukraine’s defenses will be partly to blame.
A much bigger boost for Ukraine could come later this week if the US and others agree at the G7 summit to usethe interest from hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine's defense and reconstruction.
Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to a question at a press conference in the Kazakh capital of Astana, September 16, 2004.
NATO added seven former Soviet bloc countries 20 years ago
Twenty years ago this week, then-President George W. Bush welcomed seven former communist countries into NATO: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
This marked the largest expansion of NATO to date and it pushed the alliance further eastward to Russia’s doorstep, laying the rhetorical groundwork for one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s many justifications for invading Ukraine in 2022.
In the lead up to the invasion, Putin said Russia was “swindled” by the alliance, claiming Moscow was "given promises not to move NATO infrastructure to the East, not a single inch." Contrary to Putin’s claims, there was never a formal agreement to this effect and experts say the Russian leader has distorted history with such assertions.
But this hasn’t stopped Putin from repeatedly accusing NATO of betrayal over the years. And NATO expansion has been at the heart of Putin’s aggressive behavior toward Russia’s neighbors. Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia came just months after NATO welcomed Georgia and Ukraine’s aspirations of joining the alliance. Before it launched a full-scale invasion in 2022, Russia sought guarantees that Ukraine and Georgia would never be accepted into NATO — a demand the alliance rejected.
But Ukraine and Georgia joining the alliance’s ranks remains an unlikely prospect as long as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Still, with NATO on the verge of celebrating its 75th anniversary next week, the alliance is the strongest it’s been in years. NATO in the past year added two new members — Finland and Sweden — thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin hoped to deter NATO expansion by invading Ukraine, but achieved the exact opposite.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on June 28, 2023.
Ukraine extends its reach ... and to some strange places
With the frontlines stuck, and its conventional munitions dwindling, Kyiv is looking to expand its reach against Russian interests – both near and far.
Ukraine’s army is now working with private companies to boost the production of a new class of kamikaze drones that can fly up to 1,000km (621 miles) – far enough to hit Moscow and St. Petersburg.
That’s in addition to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pledge to build millions more “First Person View” drones – consumer models adapted with explosives – which have helped Ukraine to even the playing field against a larger enemy.
The drones expand Kyiv’s menu of options, says Alex Brideau of Eurasia Group. “They could attempt to hit Russian export facilities for oil and grain in an attempt to choke off revenues that support the war effort.” In recent days, Ukraine has done just that.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also taking its fight against Russia to ... Sudan? Ukrainian forces are reportedly helping the Sudanese army in its civil war against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which are allegedly backed by Wagner Group.
That certainly sends a strong “we’ll fight you everywhere” message – but it’s not clear how much it helps with Kyiv’s core issues: entrenched front lines and uncertainty about US aid.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gives a speech at the World Economic Forum.
Zelensky fights for funding
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in many ways battling two wars at once – one against Russian invaders, and another to maintain financial and military support from Western allies. Lately, he’s been facing a deadlock in both.
On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke in front of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and implored the West to ramp up aid. The Ukrainian leader presented the war as a threat not just to his country but to Europe as well, making the case that strengthening Ukraine’s economy would strengthen European security.
"If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken,” Zelensky said.
Frozen conflict, frozen funding. The frontline in the war has barely moved in recent months, as Ukraine creeps toward the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion. But Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will keep wanting more. “Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products,” Zelensky said
Zelensky’s address came as internal debates in the US and EU continue to delay new aid packages to Kyiv, which has been heavily reliant on outside assistance. But the Ukrainian leader also noted that he’d seen “positive signals” that more EU funding would come soon.
The EU has moved to send €50 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine but has faced a roadblock in the form of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Still, EU leaders have signaled they might take steps to bypass Hungary’s veto when the bloc meets for a summit on Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, there seems to be less hope that the US Congress, which is currently working to avoid a partial government shutdown and has been divided over issues like border security, will be sending more aid to Ukraine anytime soon. But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday told Zelensky in Davos that the Biden administration is “determined to sustain [its] support for Ukraine and [is] working very closely with Congress in order to work to do that.”
Macron to the rescue. As Ukraine anxiously awaits large aid packages from the EU and US, French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday said that Paris in the near future would provide Ukraine with 40 long-range cruise missiles and hundreds of bombs.
Marina Kudriavtseva teaches her pupils in the dark in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Marina and the children
Today, as we mark one full year of war in Ukraine, we step beyond our coverage of presidents, soldiers, diplomats, and weapons to speak with a person working inside the conflict to build a better future in the most direct way possible.
Marina Kudriavtseva is a teacher of small children. She lives and works in Kyiv. (Her responses have been translated from Ukrainian.)
Marina, tell us about your work.
I’ve been a teacher for 12 years. For the past two years, I’ve taught children aged 5-8 at an after-school education institution called the Kyiv State House of Artistic and Technical Creativity. I teach a total of 28 children in small groups of up to six. We call the groups “circles” rather than “classes.”
My program is aimed at the development of attention, memory, logical thinking, imagination, the ability to analyze, speech development, and creativity. They also learn socialization, safety strategies, and etiquette.
I call this two-year program "Me and the world around me."
What happens in the school when an air raid siren goes off?
The siren can be heard all over Kyiv and on applications installed on mobile phones. [Here is the sound of the alarm.] When an air alert is announced, there is an automatic announcement on the phone.
I then inform the children that we must all go to the shelter. Everyone must put on their coats, hats, and shoes because we have to go outside to reach the shelter nearby. I take what I can – a game or a book – so we can continue our work. I also take an "anxiety suitcase" that contains antiseptic, napkins, garbage bags, a first aid kit, a blanket, a flashlight, candles, and a lighter.
We leave together and go to the shelter. We settle down there and continue our classes. We talk, we play, and we wait for the sound of the air alarm that tells us it’s safe to return to our classroom.
How do the children respond to the alarms?
The children react differently to the siren. Some are more or less calm. Some get scared and begin to cry. Sometimes there are children who panic. Some children know the procedure so well that we have to stop them because they move too quickly. We must all leave the class together.
Someone needs help, another just needs to be reassured, because I see they are worried. Some become very angry. I am sure the support of teachers is very important to them. We try to do everything we can so that they always feel this support. They are courageous.
What is it like to teach during wartime?
At any moment, you must be ready to interrupt a lesson when the children may be doing something with enthusiasm – listening, searching for something, making something with plasticine clay or paper, solving an interesting problem. Suddenly there is anxiety. You drop everything, get dressed, and go to the shelter. You must always have a "plan B" in your head. "What will I do with the children if we must go the shelter?"
Shelters are not equipped for training. We do what we can. I downloaded some tasks to my phone. Someone uses a tablet. Those who need musical accompaniment bring Bluetooth speakers with them ... We use everything we can quickly carry.
Now … imagine this happens several times a day. Now add a power outage. The lights all go out. Flashlights must be ready. And we continue. Teachers and all who work in education know this is our duty. We hold the “educational front!" I hope you can translate this saying correctly. [In Ukrainian, the phrase is "Тримаємо освітній фронт.”]
The parents trust us. They understand the requirements that exist now. Almost every child has a small backpack filled by their parents as their own kind of “anxiety suitcase” when it is necessary to stay in the shelter.
What else would you like people outside Ukraine to know about the children and their lives?
I would really like everyone who is safe outside of Ukraine, who is not threatened by war every day, every minute, to understand what happiness it is to live in peace. I would really like them to know how strong and courageous our children are, who, unfortunately, are forced to grow up much earlier than children in other countries. These are children who at the age of 5 already know what danger is.
I want them to know that our children cannot live the full and carefree life they should have. That many children of Ukraine will never see their parents again. They will never return to their homes. The word "war" will be remembered forever. And many more terrible things that no normal person would wish on anyone.
But I also want them to know that our children will grow up strong. And all of us adults who are with them will continue to do everything we can to keep them together. They have studied. They have had fun and laughed, even in bomb shelters. They have received gifts and participated in contests. They have won. Their talents are growing and blossoming as they grow. We want them to be confident and to know that we will overcome all difficulties and win.
Members of of the Armed Forces of Ukraine prepare amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Bahmut, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: A looming Russian offensive, Biden’s State of the Union, Lasso’s losses
Ukraine prepares for Russian assault amid troubling rumors
The Institute for the Study of War, a military think tank based in Washington, DC, has forecast that Russia will launch a major military offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks. (Russia remains much less likely to again send troops from Belarus toward Kyiv because Ukrainian troops are now even better armed and positioned in the north than when they routed Russian forces last spring.) Ukrainian intel officials say Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian forces to capture the full territory of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by the end of March, and Ukraine’s defense minister has warned that Russian forces may have mobilized a lot more soldiers than has been widely reported in Western media. Preparations for a Russian offensive and a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive come at a tricky moment for Ukraine. Rumors are flying that President Volodymyr Zelensky may replace Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov following the ministry’s suspected involvement in a corruption scheme involving overpayment for food – though Reznikov has not been personally implicated. We’ll be watching to see what happens next, but Zelensky has not yet publicly addressed the conflicting reports.
Ecuador’s Lasso trips himself up
Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso was hoping that a successful constitutional referendum would boost his low approval ratings. It didn’t turn out that way. Defying pollsters, voters on Sunday rejected all eight proposals, including key amendments to allow Ecuador to extradite narco suspects and to slim down the country’s fractious Congress. Adding insult to injury, opposition figures from the left-wing party of exiled former President Rafael Correa also won control of several key municipalities, including the capital, Quito, and Guayaquil, the country’s largest city, traditionally a center-right stronghold. The results are a big blow to the conservative Lasso, who was nearly impeached last summer during widespreadindigenous protests. Left-leaning “Correismo” is now the main political force to reckon with ahead of the 2025 general elections. Will the deeply unpopular Lasso make it that far?
What to expect from Biden’s State of the Union
On Tuesday, President Joe Biden will deliver his second State of the Union address in what’s broadly considered to be the prelude to his reelection announcement in the weeks ahead. Seated in front of VP Kamala Harris and newly elected House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Biden will seek to reinforce his image as a problem solver who’s above the fray of petty partisanship. Of greater interest, however, is whether he can convince the American people that efforts to curb cost-of-living pressures are working. While data suggests that prices for many commodities are coming down – and unemployment is at a five-decade low – it can be difficult to sell that to everyday Americans who still feel the pinch of inflation at the grocery store. Crucially, there will be plenty of outsiders tuning in, too: Ukraine’s government will be looking at how Republican lawmakers respond to Biden’s call for ongoing support to Kyiv. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping will be keen to see whether Biden seeks to escalate the war of words over the recent spy balloon scandal. After the speech, Biden will make stops in Florida and Wisconsin, two battleground states, suggesting that the 2024 race will soon heat up.
Ukrainian servicemen on the frontline.
What We’re Watching: Armored combat vehicles for Ukraine, Biden’s border move, Bibi’s team vs. High Court, Assad’s new friends
New foreign weapons head to the Ukrainian battlefield
Both Russia and Ukraine have been using weapons supplied by allies to real effect. Iranian-made drones have allowed Russia to inflict significant damage on Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, and civilians, and Tehran may also soon help Russia with missiles. North Korea may be providing weapons as well. On the other side, Ukraine has made effective use of US-supplied, highly mobile, precision-guided HIMARS rocket systems to hit long-range Russian targets with remarkable accuracy. This weapon made news again this week with an attack on a barracks that killed dozens, perhaps hundreds, of Russian soldiers with a single strike. The Biden administration also said last month that it would supply a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pressed Germany and France to provide battlefield weapons that his generals say they need. This week, France announced it will supply Ukraine with several dozen "light battle tanks" (the term tank being debatable) and the US and Germany followed suit, confirming on Thursday that they will send armored combat vehicles to Ukraine and that Berlin will dispatch an additional Patriot. The new Western support — a big shift in policy — signals to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine’s friends remain committed to its defense and unintimidated by Russian efforts to raise the stakes.
Biden’s immigration play
In a speech at the White House on Thursday, President Joe Biden announced new measures aimed at stemming the influx of migrants arriving at the US southern border. The plan is directed at migrants from Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela – all plagued by political and economic crises – that make up the bulk of border arrivals. Crucially, it requires them to apply for asylum from outside the US using an app and to travel to America only after they have secured sponsorship, undergone a security screening, and can pay for their own plane ticket. The administration also plans to implement punitive measures for those already on the move, stating that those “who fail to seek protection in a country through which they traveled on their way to the United States” will be banned from entering the US for five years. Biden, who will make his first presidential visit to the southwest border Sunday, also announced that the US will accept up to 30,000 migrants from the four countries each month, but that pales in comparison to the roughly 9,000 people who try to cross the southwestern border each day. Republicans will no doubt continue to hammer the White House about the immigration problem, but we’re watching to see how progressive Dems respond to the measures that some immigration advocates say violate the universal right to seek asylum.
Will Netanyahu's new government gut the judiciary?
It’s been a rough first week back on the job for Israel’s PM Benjamin “Bibi”' Netanyahu, who is being reminded – yet again – that cobbling together a discordant coalition is one thing, but governing as a bloc is quite another. The latest turmoil came after Israel’s new justice minister, who hails from Netanyahu’s Likud Party, unveiled a host of contentious judicial reforms this week aimed at diluting the power of the High Court of Justice, including diminishing its capacity to strike down laws. He also proposed giving the government of the day more power to appoint judges. Netanyahu, who is facing his own corruption charges, has long rallied against the judiciary, calling for its overhaul. So, what’s the problem? Well, the timing. While Netanyahu likely supports most of these proposals, another senior member of his coalition – Aryeh Deri, who heads an ultra-Orthodox party – does not. That’s because Deri, who in Jan. 2022 received a suspended sentence for tax fraud, is facing his own separate hearing in the High Court to decide whether he can serve as a cabinet minister given his recent conviction. Deri, who was also found guilty of bribery in the 1990s, claims that the High Court could hit back at the government for trying to dilute its power just as they are set to decide his case. These judicial reforms will likely be put to a vote in the Knesset by the end of the month, and it's unclear whether Netanyahu, facing mounting international criticism over the state of Israeli democracy, will back them all. What’s more, if Deri’s ministerial position is taken away, he could threaten to topple the government.
Assad comes in from the cold
In a major turnaround, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Thursday he is prepared to meet with his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, to discuss a peace settlement in Syria’s civil war. For context, Turkey has for more than a decade backed forces fighting against Assad. But in recent years, Assad’s forces — with backing from Moscow and Tehran — have reclaimed vast amounts of the territory once controlled by opposition forces that were backed not only by Turkey but by the US, Europe, and the Gulf Arab monarchies as well. Those “facts on the ground” being what they are, it seems some of Assad’s opponents are ready to explore peace and move on. Turkey and Syria, in particular, share a keen interest in limiting the autonomy of Syrian Kurds. Erdogan’s signal comes just a day after Assad had a visit from the foreign minister of the UAE, another country that has backed opponents of his regime. As Assad’s isolation melts away, he joins a growing list of ruthless strongmen — Venezuela’s Maduro, Belarus’ Lukashenko — who in recent years have survived what once looked like mortal threats to their power.
Israel's PM Benjamin Netanyahu with other members of the new Israeli parliament after their swearing-in ceremony in Jerusalem.
What We’re Watching: Bibi’s big plans, Lula’s tough choice, US-bound travel from China, Zelensky's plan, Santos' unraveling
Meet Israel's new government
When Israel’s new government is sworn in on Thursday, it will be the most right-wing coalition in Israel’s history. Led by Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, whose right-wing Likud Party reaped the most votes in last month’s race, the bloc is made up of two ultra-Orthodox parties as well as right-wing and far-right parties. To get coalition partners on side, Netanyahu made several overtures to Religious Zionism, a far-right alliance that finished third in the polls, including agreeing in principle to annex the disputed West Bank and applying Israeli sovereignty to the settlements. Still, Bibi, a fluent politician, hedged his bets, saying that the timing and implementation of such a policy would depend on the PM’s judgement. What’s more, the coalition agreement includes 1.6 billion shekels ($450 million) annually for development and building roads in the West Bank, while also plans for legislation allowing business providers to refuse service based on their religious beliefs – broadly seen as a measure to legalize discrimination against the LGBTQ community. Bezalel Smotrich, the ultra-nationalist head of Religious Zionism and incoming finance minister, penned an op-ed in theWall Street Journal titled “Israel’s New Government Isn’t What You’ve Heard” in which he pushed back against claims that the new government will undermine the independent judiciary, but many Israelis are worried.
Lula’s decision on demonstrations
Tensions are running high ahead of Sunday’s presidential inauguration in Brazil. In a number of Brazilian cities, protesters who claim this year’s election was stolen from outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro have camped outside military headquarters in hopes of persuading the army to overturn the result. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the incoming president, has so far said little about this problem, but after police detonated a bomb and arrested a suspect connected to one of these camps in Brasilia ahead of Lula’s inauguration on Sunday, anger has approached the boiling point. Flavio Dino, who will serve as Lula’s justice minister, has warned that these camps have become “incubators of terrorism.” Security concerns ahead of Lula being sworn in are high, and Dino is reportedly considering ordering police to break up the camps. We’ll be watching to see if this can be done peacefully and how the protesters will change tactics if they’re forced to disperse.
US to require COVID tests for travelers from China
The CDC announced on Wednesday that the US will require travelers from China, Hong Kong, and Macau to record negative COVID tests before entering the country starting on Jan. 5. Washington joins a growing list of countries – Japan, Italy, Malaysia, and India – in enforcing such travel restrictions as Beijing clumsily transitions away from its zero-COVID policy, resulting in millions of infections and fears of new mutations (no!). Still, it’s hard to know what’s really going on inside China given the Chinese Communist Party’s predilection for secrecy. While official state data claim 62,592 symptomatic COVID cases were recorded in the first 20 days of December, a leaked memo from China’s National Health Commission seen by the Financial Times and Bloomberg claims that as many as a whopping 250 million Chinese residents contracted COVID in that period. (Beijing previously said it would stop gathering data on asymptomatic cases.) President Xi Jinping, for his part, does not take kindly to being embarrassed – particularly by Washington. How will he respond?
The curious case of George Santos
There’s been a lot of attention in recent weeks on George Santos, a GOP Congressman-elect who wrestled an open House seat from a Democratic incumbent in Long Island, New York, in last month’s midterms. Now, the district attorney in Nassau County says she is opening an investigation into claims that Santos’ “numerous fabrications” misled voters. Indeed, Santos’ unraveling in recent weeks has been astonishing. He referred to a business acumen developed during his time at Goldman Sachs. He claimed his mother survived the 9/11 attacks as a financial executive at the World Trade Center and that he was tossed out of a prestigious New York high school after his parents fell on hard times. Santos backtracked on claims about being Jewish after journalists dug into his family history (later clarifying that he was raised Catholic, Santos says he feels “Jew-ish”). He’s reportedly never worked at Goldman Sachs, and he allegedly lied about his education, including about graduating from college, and his mother’s work. Republicans winning a number of seats in New York state, a longtime Democratic stronghold, was a decisive factor in helping the GOP secure a very narrow victory in the House. Meanwhile, GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy, who is looking for votes wherever he can find them to become House speaker next week, has stayed mum on the Santos case.