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Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
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How Ukraine's EU membership would change Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
To which extent is the betting scandal overshadowing everything else in the last week of the UK election campaign?
Well, I mean, the Conservative Party has been the one thing after the others. They never really got traction for any of their attempts to have a, from them, positive message in this particular campaign. So it's downhill. I think to be quite honest, the election campaign is now only about the size of the catastrophic defeat for the Conservative Party. And then, of course, the Labor Party is surviving with very high figures without much clarity on exactly what the policies are going to be for the incoming Labor government.
Will the start of the talks about the accession of Ukraine to the European Union impact upon the conduct of the war?
I don't think it will immediately, but we should not underestimate the historic nature of this particular decision. A couple of years ago, the entire thought about Ukraine ever being a member of the European Union was absolutely unthinkable in Brussels among the member states. Now it's become a strategically imperative. And negotiations started this Tuesday with Moldova as well. They will take their time, but it's a sign that the 27 member states of the European Union see the future of Ukraine as an essential part of the future of a democratic Europe. And that is going to have its long term impact.
US presidential debate: More risk for Biden than Trump
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What do you expect from the first Trump-Biden debate?
Well, I'm going to be watching it. I am a little surprised it's happening, that they agreed on the rules which are more favorable to Biden and to so-called normal politicians. But, you know, we'll see. I think there's a lot more downside for Biden precisely because his age is perceived to be so much more of a problem. The State of the Union, he did very well. But this is a live-fire exercise. It's not a set piece. And so in that regard, there's more ways you can go badly. Having said that, if he's able to stand his ground, and if Trump seems like he's slobbing more, this is a lot more about how they appear than what they actually say. You hate to say that something is important as US presidential race, but of course, that is a lot of what American politics, especially the elections, are about.
With formal EU membership talks beginning, is Ukraine closer to accession?
Yeah. I mean, every step you can take, it's a long process. It is absolutely making it easier for the Ukrainians to actually get in. But let's keep in mind there's a lot of uncertainty out there. First of all, with French elections coming up soon, if it turns out that Le Pen's National Rally party gets a majority. Hung parliaments more likely, but if it gets a majority, she could shut down, lots of components of EU accession talks, which would include Ukraine. The Parliament would no longer support additional movement and that's a problem. You need all 27 states to allow this to go through. And France is in a position where that might be the case. Also if Trump wins in the US, keep in mind Trump does not support a strong united EU. He wants further exits. He wants a weak EU to the extent that that gives space for people like Orbán and other European members that are more skeptic to oppose accession, it could get more challenging. So, I don't think this is a done deal by any means.
China just brought back rocks from the far side of the moon. The first time that's happened. Are we in a new Space Race?
Well, we are in the sense that the Chinese care a lot about having more capacity in space for scientific achievement, for national pride and also for national security. But still, if you look at the number of satellites that are up there, I mean, you know, the United States is nine times, so 900% greater. That's a pretty big deal. And that is not NASA. That is the private sector in the US. It is Elon and SpaceX. It is Jeff Bezos. It's other companies. And the fact that the entrepreneurship in the U.S has allowed American space exploration to grow, which NASA can fund and the Pentagon can fund and take advantage of, has been a huge advantage for the US.
Doesn't mean they're all and always aligned with American national security, but it's certainly not a space race versus the Chinese.
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Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrive for a news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Ukraine’s long road to EU membership
The European Commission — the European Union’s executive branch — announced Friday that it would back Ukraine’s bid to become an EU member state. Such a hard-hitting decision by Brussels seemed like a longshot before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has sent shockwaves throughout the world. While this is just the first step in an accession process that could take a decade, it sends a powerful message of solidarity to Kyiv – and a strong warning to Vladimir Putin.
What happens now? The bid will go to a vote by the European Council on June 23-24 and will require the backing of all 27 member states to move forward, a process that can often be tumultuous. If the Council approves Ukraine’s candidacy, Kyiv will be required to introduce a host of significant economic, legal, and political reforms to meet the Commission’s criteria. This would be a massive feat for Ukraine, a country that has long been crippled by corruption and graft. Indeed, in normal times, this process can take 5-10 years, and the presence of an ongoing war will only draw out this process. What’s more, since 21 of the 27 EU states are also NATO members, membership to the EU will likely be perceived as a threat by Putin, and the Union’s expansion eastward as a sign of opportunity for countries like Georgia that are also vying to join the bloc. This makes the process even more complex. However, the Commission’s opinion suggested that one day — even far in the future — Ukraine’s membership to the EU could become a reality.
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EU fast-tracks Ukraine membership application
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Washington.
First question, what happened to Ukraine's application for EU membership?
Well, that's a process that takes a long time, but what was decided by the heads of state and government of the European Union yesterday was to send it immediately to the European Commission for its assessment. That's a process that normally takes some time, but the fact that it was done immediately is as strong a signal as you can get for a process that unavoidably takes a substantial amount of time.
Secondly, what can we do to support better Ukraine, militarily?
Well, there has been a question of fighter aircraft. That's a more complicated thing. I don't think the US is particularly keen on that because of the risk of escalation. And the key thing I would say is to have a very rapid supply of anti-tank weapons. That's been supplied by the US, by Sweden, by the UK and by others, and the more we can increase that supply, because they will use them, the more they will slow down and possibly stop the Russian advance. More complex weapons take time, require training, will not be effective immediately. Anti-tank weapons that's what's needed for peace in Europe.