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A Russian army soldier walks along a ruined street of Malaya Loknya settlement, which was recently retaken by Russia's armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, on March 13, 2025.
Putin says he supports ceasefire, but with a huge asterisk
Russian President Vladimir Putinsaid Thursday that he supports a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, in principle, but imposed major conditions ahead of talks with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.
He explained that he’s opposed to anything that would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm or compromise Russia’s momentum, in which troops are “advancing practically everywhere” along the front. He also asked who would oversee and enforce a ceasefire along “more than 2,000 kilometers” of frontlines.
A day earlier, Putin visited troops in Kursk, a Russian region where Kremlin forces are currently routing Ukrainian troops who have occupied parts of the region since August.
Putin said a ceasefire could not be used for those Ukrainians to go back to Ukraine. “There are two options,” he said, “surrender or die.”
Most ominously: Putin said any settlement had to address the “long term” and “root causes” of his 2022 invasion. The Kremlin has long pushed for a change in Ukraine’s government, demilitarization of the country, international recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and other Ukrainian territories, and a ban on Ukraine joining NATO.
These terms, functionally a surrender, are not ones that Ukraine could agree to willingly, which puts the ball back in the US court.
Putin said he would like to speak with Donald Trump who, also on Thursday, said that he was open to the idea but that “we have to get it over with fast.”
And that’s the problem: Trump wants fast, Putin wants slow, and the US may not have the leverage, or the willingness, to change his clock.
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take on the back of the Riyadh meeting between the Americans and the Ukrainians, a very different reaction to when President Zelensky was visiting the White House just a week and a bit ago. Here we have a Zelensky emissary, senior delegation meeting with Rubio, secretary of State and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and coming out with a significant improvement in Ukraine's position.
First, an end of the suspension of delivery of US military aid and intelligence provision, which is critical for the Ukrainians being able to continue to defend themselves. And in return, Ukraine and the United States both announcing acceptance of terms for a 30-day, no condition ceasefire, end of the fighting exactly where it is right now. No territory changes, hands, no promises of anything beyond that. No guarantees about NATO, no promises not to join NATO, nothing like that. And now it goes to the Russians. And that is clearly not what the Russians wanted to hear.
Now, Zelensky played the cards he doesn't have much better since leaving the White House, saying he would indeed go ahead and sign a critical minerals deal, writing a letter apologizing to the American president for any misunderstandings when they had that meeting together in the Oval Office. But now, Zelensky is no longer an obstacle from Trump's perspective on the path to peace, he's accepted Trump's terms. I expect the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order, and the question is for Putin.
Now, Putin is of course gaining territory. He has momentum, and so he doesn't have an awful lot of interest in accepting an immediate ceasefire right now, especially not with any strings attached to it. I mean, he has all sorts of strings he wants to attach to. It wants to ensure that Zelensky isn't president, wants to make sure that Ukraine can, at no point, ever join NATO, has broader conditions in terms of NATO not expanding, of the Americans pulling troops back from their rotations in Poland, in the Baltic states, all sorts of demands that Putin has. And furthermore, Putin has engaged with the United States, both indirectly, as we saw in Riyadh a couple of weeks ago, as well as directly, in a 90 minute phone call with President Trump. And while Ukraine was a part of those conversations, it wasn't the focus. The focus for Putin was a much broader conversation about realigning the Americans and Russians to work together, work together on broader security issues like the Arctic and on nuclear arms control, get the sanctions off that the United States has imposed against Russia and individual oligarchs, and generally normalized relations. And none of that is, at least as of right now, on the table for Putin.
What is on the table for Putin, right now, is accept a 30-day ceasefire, with the lines of territorial control being exactly where they are, including the occupation of a small amount of Russian territory incursed by the Ukrainians who have been fighting there. And I suspect that Putin really doesn't want to accept that. So if you're Putin, what do you do? Well, one thing you do is you try to see how fast you can actually get a face-to-face with Trump so that you don't just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it, which of course is essential to any larger deal that the Americans and Russians cut because the Europeans continue to see Russia as their principal adversary, their principal enemy. Will he be successful in doing that?
Well, one open question will be, we just heard from Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, but what are we hearing from Trump? Is Trump going to completely support everything they just said? Will he endorse this deal with no qualifiers and say that Putin now has to accept it? Because if he does, that gives less wiggle room for Putin. If he doesn't, and he talks about how this is a great opportunity and we want to have a better relationship, then it gives Putin a little bit of time. It also allows him to put conditionality on what, as of the Riyadh meeting, did not have any conditions.
So certainly for those of us following this very closely, a good meeting for the Ukrainians, a relief for the Europeans, that felt like they were about to have their guy in Kyiv thrown under a bus. There's some rehabilitation that's actually happened. And a very open question for Putin who is a tough negotiator and has shown no indication, heretofore, that he's interested in an immediate ceasefire. He is the one that stands to lose the most from accepting the terms as they just came out of Riyadh and it's very hard to imagine that he'll accept them by themselves, as they are. What are the consequences of that? That's what we're going to have to watch, play out.
Trump and Putin shaking hands in front of European leaders.
Will Europe step up as America turns its back on Ukraine?
In geopolitics, there are moments that define decades. Europe is facing one of those inflection points right now. How it responds will determine not just Ukraine’s fate but the continent’s future.
For generations, Europe has comfortably sat under the American security umbrella, content to let the United States shoulder the burden of its defense while it reaped the economic and geopolitical dividends of the resulting peace. But the events of the past week have exposed the fragility of this arrangement and laid bare the extent of America’s retreat from its role as guarantor of European security under President Donald Trump.
In a televised meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky last Friday, Trump declared himself “neutral” between Russia and Ukraine and “on the side of peace,” dismissing the Ukrainian president’s pleas for security guarantees before unceremoniously kicking him out of the White House. Days later, the Trump administration froze all military aid to Ukraine and suspended offensive cyber operations against Russia. the US also paused intelligence sharing with Kyiv, blinding the Ukrainian military and immediately crippling its ability to fight.
The message from these moves was clear: The United States is no longer on Ukraine’s side – and by extension, it may no longer be on Europe’s side either. If the US is willing to abandon a country whose security is indivisible from Europe’s – and a pro-American democracy we were committed to protect, no less – why wouldn’t he do the same to an EU or NATO member? The realization that Trump’s turn away from Kyiv is genuine sent shockwaves through European capitals, seemingly galvanizing them to finally start taking a leadership role for both Ukraine’s and their own defense.
The warm embrace Zelensky received during last weekend’s emergency London summit of European leaders could not have contrasted more sharply with the hostile treatment he suffered in the Oval Office just days earlier. Hugs with European leaders were followed by dozens of shows of unity, expressions of support, and pledges to increase defense spending and aid to Kyiv.
But Europe has a long history of talking a big game and falling short when it counts. Is Europe ready to actually step up this time? Or will this moment, like so many before it, end in half measures and hollow promises?
There is reason for cautious optimism that his time will be different. Unlike previous moments of crisis, European leaders at least recognize the existential nature and urgency of the challenges. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen acknowledged, “This is Europe’s moment, and we must live up to it.” Just hours ago, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the “future of Europe cannot be decided in Washington or Moscow,” while even his arch-rival Marine Le Pen, a longtime admirer of Vladimir Putin, condemned Trump’s aid freeze as “brutal”. The show of unity and clarity of purpose are unlike anything we’ve seen in recent history.
Europe’s top priority should be to find a way to keep Ukraine in the fight without the Americans while simultaneously boosting Europe’s defense capabilities. This is a tall order, but in theory, it’s not impossible. After all, the continent has an economy ten times the size of Russia’s, and European contributions to Ukraine already exceed American ones (even if the US has provided the bulk of the military support).
Just in the last few days, European leaders have put more money on the table for defense spending and military aid to Ukraine than they had in the past three years. Here, the most promising development has been Germany’s game-changing decision to exempt infrastructure and defense spending from its strict borrowing rules, effectively allowing Europe’s largest economy to raise an unlimited amount of debt to upgrade its military and fund aid to Ukraine.
Declaring an “era of rearmament,” Von der Leyen also unveiled a plan yesterday called “ReArm Europe” to set up a €150 loan facility for military procurement and relax EU fiscal rules for member states wanting to increase defense spending. The most serious commitment we’ve seen from Brussels in years, this proposal could unlock up to €800 billion in defense spending over the coming years. European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss this plan and try to craft an aid package for Kyiv. Support is also growing within Europe for the seizure of the €300 billion in frozen Russian assets held in the EU (mostly in Belgium) – the one source of unilateral leverage European capitals have with Russia – which could add another potential funding stream for Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction.
All these moves would have been unthinkable just weeks ago, and they will go a long way toward rearming Europe and bolstering Ukraine’s capabilities.
But money alone is not enough.
Decades of underinvestment and overreliance on the United States to provide everything from intelligence to logistics to advanced weaponry have hollowed out Europe’s military infrastructure. Germany’s Rheinmetall and other European defense firms are ramping up production, but building enough of the systems Ukraine needs to stay in the fight will take time – time that Ukraine does not have. And there are some critical gaps left by the US cutoff that Europe will be unable to either fill or buy.
To be clear, the suspension of US aid will not lead to an imminent collapse of Ukraine’s defenses. The country already produces much of its weaponry domestically, often in joint ventures with European defense firms like Rheinmetall and the Franco-German KNDS, and it has enough equipment stockpiled to hold the line until summer. Increased European support can extend the runway by a few months. But Europe can’t do anything to help Ukraine solve its growing manpower shortage. Kyiv will likely struggle to sustain the fight much beyond August.
That’s why Europeans must also grapple with the question of how to credibly guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security once the fighting stops. Trump has made it clear that he wants to end the war as quickly as possible at any price. Never mind that a ceasefire without the strong security guarantees that Zelensky insists on and Trump waves away would make it likely the Russians will come back for more, posing a permanent threat on Europe’s doorstep.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have proposed a European peacekeeping force with 15,000-30,000 troops from a “coalition of the willing” to credibly deter future Russian aggression. The idea is feasible and shows the Europeans have seized a level of agency they didn’t have before. While the US president is reportedly open to the plan, it is fraught with a seemingly intractable contradiction: Starmer and Macron, who have already pledged British and French troops, remain adamant on the need for a US military backstop for those peacekeepers – an apparent nonstarter as Trump doesn’t want to risk World War III. But neither of these positions is set in stone, so the European plan is still on the table.
There is, of course, the question of whether Russia would even accept European troops in Ukraine as part of a ceasefire deal. Trump claims that Putin told him yes, but the Kremlin refutes that. In fact, color me skeptical that Putin is interested in negotiating a ceasefire at all when the Ukrainians have been cut off from US military support, their battlefield and negotiating position is only set to improve as time goes on, and rapprochement with the United States (possibly including unilateral sanctions relief) is on the horizon. Russia leverage these advantages to gain more Ukrainian territory and widen Western divisions, undermining Trump’s stated goal of achieving peace while seeking to extract bilateral concessions from the US. All Europe can do in that scenario is stay united in support of Ukraine, strengthen Kyiv’s position as much as possible, and try to persuade Trump to turn against Moscow.
The coming weeks and months will be the ultimate test of Europe’s mettle. If it can stand up in defense of its principles, values, and fellow Europeans, it will emerge stronger and more united than ever before. If it fails, Europe's own security and days as a credible geopolitical actor may well be numbered.
A Ukrainian serviceman searches for a target with a US Stinger air defense missile launcher on the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region.
US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine
The US cut off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine this week, officials announced Wednesday. This move, which follows an announcement from President Donald Trump that halts US weapons provision to Ukraine’s military, will cripple Ukraine’s ability to monitor Russian troop movements and defend against missile and drone strikes on its cities. Unlike the weapons cutoff, the loss of US intelligence will have immediate battlefield effects.
Is this mainly a hardball negotiating tactic that might force Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to offer Trump the ceasefire terms he wants, a better deal on access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, or both? US National Security Advisor Mike Waltzsignaled as much in an interview with Fox News. “I think if we can nail down these negotiations … put some confidence-building measures on the table, then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause,” said Waltz.
In the meantime, France on Thursday offered to supply more of l’intelligence to Kyiv, but this simply can’t match what the US has provided until now.
There’s another reason we’re closely tracking this story. Trump has said repeatedly that he wants a ceasefire deal to end the war in Ukraine. But why would Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to stop fighting at a moment when Ukraine is losing access to its most important source of weapons and intelligence?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits military training area.
Ukraine offers partial ceasefire in wake of US military aid suspension
Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that his country was prepared to release Russian prisoners of war, halt all long-range drone and missile strikes on Russian targets, and declare an immediate naval ceasefire — if Russia agrees to do the same. Russia has not responded to the offer, which came a day after Donald Trump suspended military aid to Ukraine. The US president said he wouldn’t resume aid until felt the country had demonstrated its commitment to the peace process.
Vice President JD Vancesaid Tuesday that he remains optimistic about securing a mineral agreement with Ukraine, despite the deal appearing dead in the water following Zelensky and Trump’s meeting on Friday.
Without the restoration of US military aid to Ukraine, the country could continue fighting with current stockpiles and weapons flows – potentially until the summer – but will become progressively weaker as supplies dwindle.
Meanwhile, Europe is stepping up efforts to continue to support Ukraine and secure itself as the US withdraws. Following the US suspending Ukraine aid, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday unveiled a historic $847 billion defense plan, including $158 billion in loans for member countries to use for rearmament and to procure weapons for Ukraine, one of the biggest defense packages in EU history.During President Trump’s speech to Congress on Tuesday night, he said he had received a letter from Zelensky earlier in the day that said “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer.” Trump said he appreciated the letter and that he had received “strong signals” from Russia “that they are ready for peace.”
President Donald Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Feb. 28, 2025
“Make a Deal or We're Out”: Inside the explosive Trump-Zelensky confrontation
When world leaders appear with the American president in front of the Oval Office’s hearth, the exchange is normally tempered, congenial, and largely a photo-op – with the diplomatic dung-slinging already done behind closed doors. But that precedent was thrown out the window today during a confrontation between Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which voices were raised, threats were thrown, and the already fractured relationship between the US and its war-time ally may have snapped ahead of ceasefire negotiations.
Zelensky’s hastily arranged Washington visit sought to salvage the US-Ukrainian relationship and address Trump’s demand that Ukraine surrender mineral rights worth billions as repayment for previous US military aid. The deal was not signed following the meeting, with Zelensky leaving promptly afterward.
Trump and Vance berated the Ukrainian president in unprecedented fashion, demanding gratitude for US aid, lambasting Zelensky for “campaigning with the opposition” by meeting with Kamala Harris on the campaign trail, and threatening to abandon Ukraine entirely unless it accepts peace terms dictated by Washington. “You’re either going to make a deal or we’re out,” Trump warned bluntly, adding that fighting alone against Russia "won’t be pretty.”
But Zelensky didn’t take their comments lying down. While he repeatedly expressed gratitude, he tried to contradict Vance’s claims regarding Ukraine’s military personnel shortages. He warned that Russia could eventually pose a threat to the US, warning “you have a nice ocean and don’t feel [threatened] now, but you will feel it in the future.”
The realignment from the US under the new administration couldn’t be clearer. Trump has effectively positioned the US alongside Russia, consistently praising Putin as “very smart” and “cunning” while falsely accusing Ukraine of starting the war, labeling Zelensky a “dictator,” and now accusing him of “gambling with World War III.”
However, the response from Congress – which controls Ukraine spending and where Zelensky received a far more cordial reception on both sides of the aisle – remains to be seen. As does how the exchange will be received domestically for both leaders. Trump’s aggressive approach is likely to play well with his base, but how will it play for the wider public? Will Zelensky be seen as brave or foolish back home? If you have a take, let us know here.
Meanwhile, Zelensky’s efforts to salvage his relationship with Trump have backfired, and Ukraine — though maintaining the support of Europe – is entering into potentially impending peace negotiations on shaky ground, although it remains to be seen how soon Ukraine and Russia will head to the negotiating table.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy arrives at Shannon airport ahead of a bilateral meeting with Ireland's Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheal Martin, in Shannon, Ireland, February 27, 2025.
Once again, Trump meets Zelensky
For all the anxiety in Ukraine and across Europe about direct Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin ceasefire negotiations, other players in this drama are now having their say. French President Emmanuel Macronmet with Trump at the White House on Wednesday. On Thursday, it was UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s turn toglad-hand and bargain with the US president. And today, the diplomatic music will reach a crescendo with a visit to the White House by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The most important question that everyone is grappling with: What kind of security guarantee can and will Trump and/or European leaders offer Ukraine to limit the risk that a deal to end the fighting won’t stop Putin from launching a future invasion?
Trump insists Ukraine isn’t strong enough to evict Russian troops from the approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory they now hold. But if Zelensky is to consider territorial concessions as the eventual price of peace, he must show Ukraine’s people that their country will maintain strong-enough friends with strong-enough militaries and stiff-enough backbones to repel any future Russian attack.
One lesson we’ve learned from the past two months: It matters little what any of these leaders say publicly about what they consider acceptable or unacceptable. That’s part of the diplomatic haggling. All that matters is the written language of any agreement they might reach and the ability and willingness of outside players to enforce it. For that, we’ll have to keep watching.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during a press conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine February 26, 2025.
GZERO Explains: The curious case of Trump’s rare earths deal in Ukraine
Ukraine agreed on Wednesday to cede control over a substantial share of future mineral riches to the United States, part of a sweeping deal US President Donald Trump has suggested as a condition for continuing to support Kyiv. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the deal – which his administration says is worth $500 billion – is about “rare earths.”
So, what are rare earths? They’re a family of 17 elements used to make weapons, wind turbines, electric vehicle batteries, and other modern electronics. Among the key metals are neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, the prices of which have largely fallen over the past year as demand for electric vehicles declined.
Where do they come from? Until the 1990s, the US was the top supplier, but Beijing now controls roughly 70% of the world’s raw, unprocessed rare earths and nearly 90% of the refining capacity. China isn’t shy about using that leverage – in 2010 Beijing cut off rare earths shipments to Japan amid a diplomatic dispute and has on occasion threatened to do the same to the US too. But total global production of rare earths each year amounts to only about $15 billion. That’s equal to about two days of global oil production, according to Bloomberg.
Is Ukraine a major producer? Not at the moment. Ukraine isn’t even mentioned in a US Geological Survey report on global supplies. The country has some small-scale mines that produce scandium, a rare-earth metal used in oil refining, and lightweight aluminum-based alloys like those used in bicycle frames. But those production sites are relatively tiny.
What about other minerals? Ukraine has about 7% of Europe’s supplies of titanium, a lightweight metal used to make everything from airplanes to sporting equipment to the newer versions of the iPhone. The country has some notable deposits of graphite, a key mineral for batteries and nuclear reactors. There are also some small reserves of lithium, the main ingredient in batteries, as well as iron, manganese, and uranium.
But overall, Europe’s second-largest country by landmass ranks 40th among the world’s mineral-producing nations. That could change, but mining is an energy-intensive process, and Ukraine’s power plants and pipelines are largely ruined after three years of war. What’s more, some of the rare earths are located in the eastern parts of Ukraine under Russian occupation.
So what’s in the deal? It would create a fund into which Ukraine would place half of the proceeds of “future monetization” of Ukraine’s mineral wealth, including oil and gas deposits. The size of the US stake in the fund is to be worked out in the future.
What’s not? Security guarantees from the US to Ukraine. Kyiv had sought this as part of the deal.
So, with so much uncertainty, what’s this deal really about? It’s hard to say. From Trump’s perspective, the promise of future mining revenues may offer political cover to keep US military support in place for the time being. From Zelensky’s, that’s worth it in itself, and he may figure he can negotiate security guarantees later.
What’s next? Zelensky is expected to travel to Washington in the coming days to sign the deal with Trump.