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Could Russia invade the Baltics next?
Baltic leaders have few illusions that once Putin is done with Ukraine he won't look to his northwest neighbors next. On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže addresses concerns about a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic states, saying that such a move would be an entirely new ballgame and would mean direct war with NATO; even still, Braže says, no scenario should be ruled out. “The task for all of us is not to exclude anything. So to be ready, to be prepared, to exercise, to test, and to make sure it doesn’t happen,” she says.
Braže underscores the importance of NATO’s deterrence strategy, stressing that the alliance must demonstrate both strength and resolve to prevent any miscalculations from Moscow. Beyond conventional military threats, she highlights the dangers of hybrid warfare, including cyberattacks and disinformation, as key battlegrounds in the ongoing struggle between Russia and the West.
Watch full episode: The fight to decide Ukraine's fate
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The fight to decide Ukraine's fate
As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, the Baltic states—Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania—are watching their eastern neighbor with growing concern. With cyberattacks, undersea sabotage, and military buildup along its border, Latvia is at the forefront of Europe’s efforts to counter Russian aggression. On GZERO World, Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže joins Ian Bremmer in New York to discuss Ukraine's fate, the region’s security challenges, the role of NATO, and how Trump’s evolving stance on Russia could leave European in the lurch.
Also on the show, Bremmer speaks with former Russian colonel Dmitri Trenin, who offers a starkly different perspective from Moscow, arguing that negotiations over Ukraine should be decided primarily by the US and Russia—not Ukraine or Europe.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
A Baltic warning: What Ukraine war means for Europe—and the Russian perspective
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we're bringing you two starkly different views on Ukraine's future and European security. First, Ian Bremmer speaks with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže about the growing security threats facing the Baltics—from cyberattacks and disinformation to undersea sabotage in the Baltic Sea. When an oil tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet recently severed a vital power cable between Estonia and Finland, it was a stark reminder of how hybrid warfare is playing out beyond the battlefield. Braže warns that Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine, aiming to weaken US alliances and destabilize Europe. She also pushes back against claims that Ukraine's NATO ambitions provoked the war, calling them “complete nonsense,” and outlines why Latvia is boosting its defense spending to 5% of GDP.
The conversation then shifts to Moscow, where Bremmer speaks with former Russian colonel and ex-Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin. Once considered a pro-Western voice, Trenin’s views now align closely with the Kremlin. He argues that the fate of Ukraine should be decided primarily by Russia and the United States—not Ukraine or Europe.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Russia’s next target? Why the Baltics are wary of Putin
How far will Russia go to reassert its influence? This question has haunted Europe for decades. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was supposed to mark a turning point, but for the Baltic nations—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the shadow of Russian aggression has never truly lifted.
Fast forward to Christmas Day of 2024, when a rickety oil tanker flying the flag of the Cook Islands was caught dragging an 11-ton anchor along the seabed of the Gulf of Finland, severing a critical power cable between Estonia and Finland. Finnish authorities boarded the ship, confiscating 100,000 barrels of illicit Russian oil. EU officials believe the vessel was part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—aging tankers used to evade sanctions. Some of those same ships, they warn, may also be engaging in acts of sabotage.
Energy infrastructure isn’t the only target. Cyber warfare has long been part of Russia’s playbook. A 2007 cyberattack on Estonia, widely attributed to Moscow, was an early warning of how modern warfare would evolve. Today, those threats have only intensified. Google’s intelligence experts have recently identified Russia’s elite hacking unit, Sandworm, probing Baltic energy grids for weaknesses—the same strike team that has repeatedly shut down power across Ukraine.
It’s no wonder that Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania now spend more on defense, as a percentage of GDP, than most NATO members. Latvia, for example, has boosted its defense budget from under 1% of GDP in 2014 to a projected 5% by 2026. That’s a figure high enough to impress even US President Donald Trump. And as President Trump signals a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow—softening relations while berating Ukraine’s leadership—the question isn’t just how far Putin will go, but will the West be able to stop him?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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Did China try to sever Taiwanese communications cables?
The cargo ship went by several names, including Hong Tai, and was supported by Chinese funding, Taiwanese officials said.
China has become increasingly antagonistic toward Taiwan under President Xi Jinping, who last year referred to reunification with the mainland as “inevitable.” But rather than invade and take Taiwan by force – which would likely provoke a response from the US – China routinely engages in these kinds of gray zone tactics. These “impose both physical and psychological pressure onto Taiwan to try to test the limits of Taiwan’s military and its coast guard resources,” says Eurasia Group’s Ava Shen. Tuesday’s incident “undermines Taiwan’s resilience in its critical infrastructure and also drains Taiwan’s resources as it rushes to fix these cut cables,” she adds.
The US offers significant military support to Taiwan, though President Donald Trump has urged the island to commit more of its budget to defense spending.
Was it sabotage? Not necessarily. Ship anchors can accidentally sever undersea cables, especially if they’re worn, and a Taiwanese official urged caution about jumping to conclusions.
“We’re not ruling out the possibility that [the vessel] was engaged in an act of sabotage,” Taiwanese Coast Guard spokesperson Ou Yu-fei told the New York Times. “We go by the evidence. It’s too early to reach conclusions.”