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Assad’s fall, Romania’s canceled election, Trump’s Taiwan approach, and more: Your questions, answered
How did Bashar Assad get driven out of Syria after more than 20 years in power? What are your thoughts on his replacements?
I was surprised that Assad fell. He’s been such an important client for both Iran and Russia for decades and received their immediate support when the rebels began their offensive. But this was a particularly opportune time for the rebels to strike. Assad’s powerful friends were both distracted in other arenas: Iran with Israel (in both Gaza and, more importantly for Iran, Lebanon) and Russia with Ukraine. Interestingly, there is one key throughline connecting the fall of Mosul (Iraq), Kabul (Afghanistan), and Damascus (Syria) — all three were held by conscript armies that were fed, equipped, and trained by corrupt regimes … and when attacked by fierce radical groups fled as quickly as they could.
On its face, the fall of one of the world’s most oppressive dictators should be good news. Assad’s war against his own people led to the deaths of over 500,000 Syrians and millions of refugees fleeing into Turkey and from there to Europe. But I’m not yet confident that what’s replacing his regime will be much better. The Turkish-backed militants in charge are Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, a former al-Qaida affiliate in Syria that formally cut ties with the terrorists but is still (as of now) labeled a terrorist organization by the United States and NATO. Turkey wasn’t all in on removing Assad (at first). If the regime change goes well (a big if), the real winner here will be Turkey, with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sending millions of Syrian refugees back home, becoming the main influence on strategically important Syria, and leading the fight against the Islamic State. This would land Erdoğan in Donald Trump’s good graces if it leads to a withdrawal of American troops.
HTS is clearly serious about establishing itself as the new, legitimate government — and a policy (for now) of relative moderation and tolerance toward other groups in the country is making that easier. But there are still so many unknowns and reasons that this can go terribly wrong.
Can Romania just cancel an election?
The constitutional court decided it’s “better to ask for forgiveness than permission.” After a massive far-right influence campaign by external (well … Russian) forces on TikTok and other social platforms was uncovered, Romania became the first democracy to ever cancel an election because of a disinformation campaign. This move will land the country in hot water regardless of the results of the rescheduled election. The court is viewed as highly politicized, so the decision will ultimately undermine it and whoever the future president may be – unless the far-right fringe candidate is allowed to run, and win, again.
How could President Trump’s plan to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine on “day one” impact China’s approach to Taiwan?
Whether China will push to undermine the cross-strait status quo during Trump’s second term is still up for debate. But Trump’s transactional approach to the war in Ukraine won’t affect China’s approach to Taiwan, at least in the near term. Beijing is still several years away from being able to credibly launch an invasion and take over the self-governing democracy. For now, China’s leaders are much more focused on regaining their own economic footing. That said, President-elect Trump’s interest in defending an island thousands of miles from the United States (and incredibly close to mainland China) is questionable at best. Many of his advisors care a great deal about Taiwanese sovereignty as a matter of US national security and longstanding American values, but Trump himself is much more interested in the country’s bilateral trade balance with the US.
What does Russia after Putin realistically look like?
If Vladimir Putin dies tomorrow, don’t expect a seismic shift at the Kremlin. Far more likely, his replacement would be another strongly anti-Western, nationalist leader who would fill the vacuum left by Putin’s departure. Such a successor would likely be more risk-averse, having to derive legitimacy and maintain power through the support of the country’s military, intelligence, and security leaders. It’s hard to imagine a dramatic shift in Russia’s geopolitical orientation when most of the country feels like the United States and “the West” have been out to squash their country’s power for decades.
Could a multi-party proportional representation system fix American politics?
America’s two-party system provides unique challenges for government representation by fostering an “us vs. them” tribalist sentiment, dividing the country into only two camps. It would be harder to immediately brand the opposing party as “the enemy of the state” if Americans had more choices. So, a shift to a multi-party system would allow a broader spectrum of ideologies into DC, and across the country, that would more closely reflect the diversity of the country’s population as a whole, which I think would be a constructive development. That said, it's hard to see how we could ever get from here to there given the stronghold on American politics (and the insane amount of funding) that the current duopoly has.
Why do you always defend the United Nations?
Some may find it controversial, but I’m proud of the United Nations. A truly global institution created by the United States out of the rubble of World War II, the UN charter reflects the very best of American values. As an institution, the UN no doubt has problems. The Security Council (and its veto powers) reflects a geopolitical order that no longer exists, lacks representation, and is accordingly broken. In the General Assembly, each country (no matter how small) has one vote but without enforcement power is generally weak and ineffective. Countries vote and veto in ways many of us wish they didn’t (but you should blame those countries, not the UN, for that).
What gets lost in the critiques of the bureaucracy of the United Nations is the amount of good that the organization does on a global scale, and with limited expenses (which, by the way, is where most of American funding for the United Nations is spent). The World Health Organization, World Food Organization, UNICEF, and other UN arms are systematically looking out for the world’s poorest and most vulnerable in ways most singular countries couldn’t be bothered to do alone.
Today, the world is heading to a post-carbon energy future, and that’s in no small part due to the architecture set up by the United Nations. Plus, new initiatives like the creation of a global framework for artificial intelligence (which I’ve been happy to be a part of) signal more positive developments are still to come on the only stage where every country in the world can have a voice.
What is on your radar over the next 24 months and not being discussed enough?
While there’s constant talk about artificial intelligence impacting our daily lives, the deployment of large-scale AI applications to an individual’s every dataset is not being discussed nearly enough. Personalized decisions or predictions based on human behavior patterns ascribed in large datasets are coming our way shortly. Before you know it, we will all have tools that will change humanity as we know it — in productive ways and post-human ways.
Where do you get your news, and what news sources do you trust?
As you might expect, the folks at Eurasia Group and GZERO Media act as my North Star when news breaks. With about 250 brilliant employees scattered across the globe working tirelessly to understand the inner workings of their areas of expertise, they bring priceless insight into what’s going on in the world on any given day. More broadly, it’s helpful for people to look outside their bubbles and read news coverage from outside their country of origin. For me, the Canadians (CBC), Germans (DW), Japanese (NHK), Arabs (Al Jazeera, etc.), and others cover the world in a much more effective way than the coverage we get from one hour of insular news coverage on cable television (or even from sitting down with the New York Times or Wall Street Journal).
What are your thoughts on pineapple on pizza?
Well, that depends. I’ll allow pineapple if there’s also ham and something spicy on top like jalapenos or chili flakes. Even then, I can probably think of 20 other things that I’d rather have as a pizza topping. Still, pineapple is preferable to cuttlefish – a Japanese fan favorite.
Are you hiring?
Eurasia Group is always looking for new talent – not just in our New York office but around the world. I am not personally involved in hiring, though, which is probably for the best. Thankfully we have a CEO and management team who make running the firm look easy. We’d be nowhere near as successful without them. Left to my own devices, I might run us into the ground. Ask anyone at Eurasia Group, they’ll totally agree with me.Ambassador Robert Wood of the US raises his hand to vote against the ceasefire resolution at the United Nations Security Council, on November 20, 2024.
US vetoes Gaza ceasefire resolution
US vetoes Gaza ceasefire resolution
The US on Wednesday cast the lone veto to sink a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Washington said it opposed the measure because of wording that would have allowed Hamas to wait until after a ceasefire to release the roughly 100 remaining hostages that it still holds in Gaza. This is the fourth time the United States has blocked a ceasefire resolution of this kind.
The draft also called for Palestinian civilians in Gaza to be allowed to return to their homes, for the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to the strip, and for a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
The resolution’s failure comes as the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen. Earlier this week, unknown armed men looted roughly 100 trucks in a humanitarian convoy, causing food prices in the already-starving enclave to soar. The UN estimates only 16% of the 1.7 million people in central and southern Gaza have received adequate food rations.
Last week a 30 day ultimatum ran out for Israel to improve humanitarian access to the Strip or risk losing some US arms transfers. Washington said Israel had done the bare minimum to satisfy its concerns.
AI-generated cyber threats have C-suite leaders on edge.
Biden will support a UN cybercrime treaty
The Biden administration is planning to support a controversial United Nations treaty on cybercrime, which will be the first legally binding agreement on cybersecurity.
The treaty would be an international agreement to crack down on child sexual abuse material, or CSAM, and so-called revenge porn. It would also increase information-sharing between parties of the treaty, increasing the flow of evidence the United States, for one, has on cross-border cybercrime. This will also make it easier to extradite criminals.
But the treaty has faced severe pushback from advocacy groups and even Democratic lawmakers. On Oct. 29, six Democratic US senators, including Tim Kaine and Ed Markey, wrote a letter to the Biden administration saying they fear the treaty, called the UN Convention Against Cybercrime, could “legitimize efforts by authoritarian countries like Russia and China to censor and surveil internet users, furthering repression and human rights abuses around the world.” They said the treaty is a threat to “privacy, security, freedom of expression, and artificial intelligence safety.”
The senators wrote that the Convention doesn’t include a needed “good-faith exception for security research” or a “requirement for malicious or fraudulent intent for unauthorized access crimes.” This runs afoul of the Biden administration’s executive order on AI, which requires “red-teaming” efforts that could involve hacking or simulating attacks to troubleshoot problems with AI systems. The UN will vote on the Convention later this week, but even if the United States supports it, it would need a two-thirds majority in the US Senate — a difficult mark to achieve — to ratify it.
The challenges of peacekeeping amid rising global conflicts
In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Dr. Comfort Ero, President and CEO of the International Crisis Group, shed light on the increasing elusiveness of global peace amid rising conflicts worldwide. She pointed out a "crisis of peacemaking," noting that comprehensive peace processes and settlements have become rare, with the last significant one being in Colombia in 2016.
"We are in the era of big power rivalry and a multipolar world where there are more actors piling in... competing interests, competing visions," Dr. Ero explained. She emphasized that traditional tools for nudging conflicting parties to the negotiation table, such as sanctions, are no longer effective, and the United Nations Security Council is becoming increasingly dysfunctional.
Highlighting the complex situation in Sudan, Dr. Ero described it as a significant crisis that lacks the media attention given to conflicts like those in Ukraine and Gaza. "We're talking, by the way, 20 years on from Darfur when we said never again. And here we are, and Sudan is on the verge of collapse," she warned. The conflict has led to millions being displaced and a dire humanitarian situation, with neighboring countries like South Sudan and Chad bearing the brunt of refugee inflows.
On the topic of United Nations Security Council reform, Dr. Ero was skeptical about the permanent five members relinquishing their veto power or extending it to others. "The P5 will jealously guard the veto power and will make sure that that is not watered down," she observed, raising questions about the Council's influence in the future.
This conversation was presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum. The Global Stage series convenes heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debates about the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Watch the full conversation at https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage, and watch out for more GZERO coverage of the Paris Peace Forum this week.
UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved?
Today, around 3.3 billion people live in countries spending more on debt than on essential services like education and healthcare, and governments worldwide are struggling to pay these debts. Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, warns of looming trade wars and faltering financial systems designed to reduce global poverty and promote development. What will it take to get countries back on track? Grynspan shares insights on this, highlighting the roles of the UN General Assembly and the International Monetary Fund in a Global Stage interview with GZERO’s Tony Maciulison the sidelines of the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum.
Watch out for more coverage of the Paris Peace Forum from GZERO this week.
Can we achieve gender equality by 2030?
It has been nearly 30 years since former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared at the UN Conference on Women, hosted in Beijing, that “Women’s rights are human rights.” While progress has been made in some key areas, like education and access to healthcare, the number of women in the global labor force has remained largely stagnant since the 1990s. Women still trail men overall in income, digital inclusion, and even access to banking.
This week World Bank announced a bold initiative to bridge that divide by creating more economic opportunity, broadening female leadership, and reducing gender-based violence in the next 5 years as 2030 approaches. GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to two of the architects of the plan—World Bank’s Global Head of Gender Hana Brixi, and Nathalie Akon Gabala, who is Global Director of Gender and Economic Inclusion at the International Finance Corporation.
Many global organizations have pledged to close the gender gap and have fallen short. Brixi tells Maciulis “more transparency and more accountability” will be needed to succeed, and details the approach World Bank will take in the coming years.
Watch more from Global Stage.
Canada's fight with India over Sikh assassination heats up again
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What is the role of the United Nations in the Israel-Gaza war?
Well, it's actually quite a few roles. One, the General Assembly and the Security Council are principle places where you get to see how the various countries around the world respond to the war, what their political positioning is, so the comparative isolation of the United States on the Security Council, for example, what countries do, don't stand with Israel, the Palestinians of the 194 member states around the world? Secondly, the UN is the principal organization that delivers humanitarian aid on the ground in Gaza, staffed overwhelmingly by Palestinians, thousands of them. That's been controversial because a number, something like seven or eight, have been found to have been involved in the support for the attacks on October 7th, the terrorist attacks. And then, finally, you have UN peacekeepers, thousands of them, on the ground in southern Lebanon, with many countries around the world participating. That's the Security Council that's responsible for that but has not been particularly effective at ensuring that the Security Council resolutions, creating a buffer zone, pushing Hezbollah back, and not allowing them to strike Israel, have actually been implemented. So lots of places that they have a role, you learn a lot about the world as a consequence, but it's not like they have a lot of power or a lot of money.
Why did Canada expel Indian diplomats?
Well, it's a fight that's been going on for over a year now with the assassination of this Sikh terrorist that India was found to be behind on sovereign Canadian territory. There had been a conversation between Modi and Trudeau on the sidelines of recent G20 Summit. It looked like facilitated by the United States, that that relationship was improving. It has fallen apart again. One of the things, I mean, there's more information that's come out in Canada about what India's role has been interfering with Canadian politics and citizens, but also the fact that Trudeau is in really tough shape domestically. He's thinking that a fight with India right now may help him in terms of popularity. I don't think it's going to work, but that certainly is not irrelevant.
How important is Elon Musk in the US election?
I don't think he's very important to the outcome. Obviously, Twitter/X is significantly oriented towards the right in terms of both Elon and what's being algorithmically promoted, but it's a lot smaller for US citizens than TikTok, which is younger and is more focused to the extent there's a political slant on the left. So if you ask me, which is going to matter more? I suspect TikTok will bring out more voters than Twitter/X, will. I think you on, is important in the election because he has personally done so much to promote disinformation, and it's making it harder for the average American to know what they can trust, what's a trusted source of media, what's a trusted source of information, what they should believe around vaccines, around FEMA response to a hurricane, around whether or not the election is free and fair. And I'm worried deeply that there's much greater likelihood of violence in the United States on the back of his personal decision of how to run Twitter/X than there would've been otherwise. We'll be focused on this very closely.
UN Italian peacekeeping soldiers secure an area outside their base in the southern Lebanese border village of Alma al-Shaab.
Israel’s attacks on UN peacekeepers draw international condemnation
Israel and the UN’s historically thorny relationship has become even more contentious amid the escalating fight between the Israeli military and Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militant and political group in Lebanon.
The UN says that Israeli forces have fired on their peacekeepers in southern Lebanon several times in recent days and that at least five peacekeepers have been injured in the process.
On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged UNIFIL, the UN’s peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, to leave the area and get out of “harm’s way.” Netanyahu denies that Israel has deliberately targeted peacekeepers. UNIFIL, which is mandated to be in southern Lebanon by the UN Security Council, refuses to leave. Meanwhile, the UN on Sunday said that the Israeli military forcibly entered one of its positions in southern Lebanon, which Israel denies.
Tough gig. UNIFIL — the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon — was first established in 1978 to oversee Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon following an invasion that same year. It’s made up of 10,000 personnel from 50 countries and patrols an area known as the Blue Line — a UN-designated line separating Lebanon from Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.
UNIFIL is charged with maintaining peace and security along the border between Israel and Lebanon, which is no easy task given the volatile history of the region. A 2006 UN resolution, tied to an Israel-Hezbollah war that year, expanded UNIFIL’s mission and called on it to “ensure that its area of operations is not utilized for hostile activities of any kind.”
The Israeli government and other critics of UNIFIL say it’s ineffective and hasn’t done a good enough job reporting on Hezbollah’s activities and build-up in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has repeatedly fired on Israel from the area since last October amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, in a tit-for-tat that ultimately spiraled into the recent Israeli invasion of Lebanon atop escalating airstrikes across the country.
Israel’s criticism of UNIFIL does not appear to be landing with much of the international community, which is condemning the Jewish state for firing on peacekeepers.
UN chief António Guterres — who Israel recently declared persona non grata — has warned that attacks on peacekeepers could constitute war crimes, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to stop firing on peacekeepers.
The UK, France, Germany, and Italy on Monday condemned “all threats to UNIFIL’s security,” and called for IDF attacks on peacekeepers to stop “immediately.” Similarly, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Monday said attacking UN troops is “completely unacceptable.”
We’ll be watching to see if Israel listens and adjusts course in Lebanon.