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Graphic Truth: Measles spreads across the US
The US has reported 1,563 measles cases this year — the most in over 30 years — but experts say the real number may top 5,000. Outbreaks are spreading in 41 states, fueled by declining vaccination rates. Most cases involve unvaccinated people, with rising clusters in Texas, South Carolina, Utah, Arizona, and Minnesota.
Released hostage Evyatar David, who was kidnapped during the deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas and taken to Gaza, reacts upon arrival at the site of Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Hospital, in Petah Tikva, Israel, on October 13, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Israeli hostages return home, China snaps back at Trump’s tariff threat, Madagascar’s president flees the country
The Israeli hostages are finally home – but what next for Gaza?
After two years in Hamas captivity, the last 20 living Israeli hostages – all of them men – have returned home from Gaza, sparking jubilant scenes both for the families and across the Jewish state. US President Donald Trump touted their return during a speech to the Knesset, declaring that Israel was “at peace.” As part of the deal, Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. Though the ceasefire is holding in Gaza, there remains a huge amount of uncertainty over the fate of the enclave and its management, as thousands of Palestinians return home to destroyed neighborhoods. Hamas is reappearing on Gazan streets, and has been clashing with rival Palestinian clans in recent days – with dozens killed. Under Trump’s 20-point peace plan, Hamas will have no role in Gaza’s future, yet the US president said over the weekend that the militant group has “approval for a period of time” to run security there. But for how long?
China hits back following Trump’s tariff threat
There might be a ceasefire in Gaza, but the US-China trade war is heating up again, as Beijing pledged to hit back at Washington should Trump follow through with his Friday threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The US president is trying to bring the temperature down again, saying on social media yesterday that he doesn’t want to “hurt” China. He also appeared to retract his threat to cancel his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea. Markets swung wildly over the weekend and into Monday amid the latest war of words between the world’s two biggest superpowers.
Madagascar’s president flees the country
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina fled the country on Monday, after the elite CAPSAT military unit joined the Gen-Z led protests that have raged across the country since September. CAPSAT further announced that they are taking over the army. The protests began over water and electricity shortages but have spiraled into grievances like corruption and quality of life. CAPSAT brought Rajoelina to power in a 2009 coup, but on Saturday announced that it would not shoot on the protesters and escorted them into the capital’s main square. The toppling of Madagascar’s government opens questions of who will lead the country next, and mirrors recent protests against ruling elites in countries like Nepal, Indonesia, and Morocco.
US-China AI race: Dueling strategies and potential risks
In this episode of "Ask Ian," Ian Bremmer explores the evolving AI landscape and competition between the US and China.
Both countries lead in AI capabilities but differ in strategy. The US focuses on developing foundational Large Language Models (LLMs), aiming for consumer engagement and significant valuation increases. In contrast, China seeks to deploy AI in core industrial sectors like biotechnology and space. Ian notes that China wants “more efficiency, they want better energy use.”
Ian also highlights a shift in US policy, citing Nvidia's deal with Trump on chip sales to China. He contrasts the geopolitical significance of TikTok to Trump's agenda with how Taiwan matters to Xi Jinping.
Lastly, Ian warns of societal risks due to AI's psychological impact, advocating for stringent regulations and cautioning against unchecked consumer AI deployment: "We need far better regulations, and we need far more safety for society and for our mental and emotional well‑being.”
Bedouin women walk on a road in the Nuseirat refugee camp area in the Gaza Strip on September 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Hamas ponders Gaza proposal, US government shutdown is nigh, “Gen Z” revolt in Madagascar, US-Africa trade deal to expire
All eyes on Hamas after Trump and Netanyahu announce Gaza deal
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday announced a proposal to end the war in Gaza. Under the plan, Israel would withdraw from Gaza in phases, and a group of Arab and Muslim-majority nations would oversee a Palestinian administration of the strip. Hamas would return all the remaining hostages and its fighters would get amnesty if they disarm. There was only a vague reference to Palestinian statehood. Arab and European leaders lauded the proposal but Netanyahu’s far right coalition partners have slammed it. The key question: will Hamas accept? The militant group said it would look at the deal in “good faith,” but has also suggested the deal is too favorable for Israel. The clock is ticking: Trump gave Hamas until Thursday to accept, warning that otherwise he would give Netanyahu “full backing” to continue his attempt, so far unsuccessful, to eliminate Hamas.
This US government shutdown could be different
With yet another federal government shutdown looming at midnight tonight, talks between congressional Democrats, Republicans, and the White House have stalled. Republicans want a short-term funding bill before negotiating one for the full fiscal year, while Democrats want to reinstate certain health care subsidies. Since any funding bill requires 60 votes in the Senate, the Democrats still have leverage even though the GOP has 53 seats. Under a shutdown, “non-essential” federal workers (think park rangers and social security administrators) are suspended until a deal is reached. But this time could be different: Trump is threatening to use any shutdown as an excuse to permanently fire thousands of federal employees. Who will blink first?
Madagascar’s Gen Z protests force government shake-up
Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina says he’ll dissolve his government after days of “Gen Z” protests over chronic water and power outages. The demonstrations, led mostly by young people under the slogan “We want to live, not survive,” have spread to eight cities in the African island nation, and turned deadly. The UN says at least 22 people have been killed and 100 injured in clashes with security forces, though Madagascar’s government disputes those numbers. The protests mark the biggest test of Rajoelina’s rule since winning reelection in 2023. He apologized for government failures and promised a new cabinet within days.
Major US-Africa deal expires today
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a 25-year old trade deal that has given African exporters preferential access to the US market, is set to expire today, leaving billions of dollars of trade and hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent in limbo. Read Zac Weisz’s recent explainer on the economic (and geopolitical!) implications here.
Search and rescue officers search for victims amidst the rubble of a crumbled building after a hall collapsed while students were praying at the Al-Khoziny Islamic boarding school in Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, on September 29, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Indonesian school collapses, Americans sour on Israel, YouTube pays Trump, Brothers rock in Italian election
3: A school in East Java, Indonesia, collapsed on Monday, killing three people and injuring many more. At least 38 others – many of them teenage boys – remain trapped. The rescue mission was halted on Tuesday over concerns that the building would collapse further. This disaster comes atop a growing list of challenges that President Prabowo Subianto now faces.
35%: A new poll shows 35% of Americans sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israel (34%). It’s the first time in the history of the New York Times/Siena poll, which dates back to 1998, that this has happened. Right after the October 7th, 2023, attacks, support for Israel was at 47%, against just 20% for Palestinians. The new results come after two years of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which some international organizations and watchdogs have said meets the criteria for war crimes, including genocide.
$24.5 million: YouTube agreed to pay $24.5 million to US President Donald Trump and others on Monday in order to settle a lawsuit over the platform’s decision to suspend them from the site in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The vast majority of the settlement payout – $22 million – will go to Trump, who directed the money to the Trust for the National Mall and to the construction of a new White House ballroom. Trump’s lawyers had argued that the suspension was an act of censorship.
52.5%: In a big win for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her rightwing Brothers of Italy party was re-elected to run the region of Marche, beating the opposition by nearly ten points with 52.5% of the vote. The ballot in Marche, a light manufacturing industry northeast of Rome which has historically leaned left, is seen as a bellwether for national elections due in 2027.US President Donald Trump greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on September 29, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Netanyahu and Trump talk Gaza, Europe nabs a win out east, Peru faces “Gen Z” revolt
Bibi pays yet another visit to the White House
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with US President Donald Trump at the White House today to discuss postwar Gaza. The Trump administration proposed a plan last week involving a coalition of Arab and Muslim-majority nations overseeing a Palestinian committee’s governance of the strip, as well as the release of the remaining hostages from Gaza. Trump hinted on Sunday that a deal to end the war was close, while Bibi said of the White House proposal that he hoped Israel could “make it a go.” With Trump and those around him growing increasingly impatient with Netanyahu, will there finally be a breakthrough?
Europe gets a win the East
Moldova’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity, led by President Maia Sandu, won a narrow parliamentary majority despite alleged Russian efforts to sway the vote towards a Kremlin-friendly opposition party. Opposition protests followed the vote, but European Union leaders welcomed the result, which strengthens Moldova’s bid to join the EU and rebuffs pro-Russian parties that campaigned on anger about high gas prices and fears of wider war and conflict with Russia stemming from Western backing for Ukraine. The election – seen as a referendum on Europe versus Russia – drew global attention to the tiny country due to its strategic position between Romania and Ukraine.
Peru is the latest subject of “Gen Z” protests
Following on from Southeast Asia, South America became the latest continent to experience recent “Gen Z” revolts, as protests erupted in Lima, the Peruvian capital, against President Dina Boluarte. Demonstrators clashed with police, and roughly a dozen were injured. The spark was the government’s move to require everyone over 18 to join a pension provider, which many oppose because it places extra financial burdens on young people when they already face economic insecurity. But tensions have been simmering in the country of 34 million people over corruption scandals, rising crime, and a lack of accountability after Boluarte’s security forces killed protestors in 2022-2023. Boluarte’s approval rating lies at just 3%. The country is scheduled to have elections next year.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York City, USA, on September 26, 2025.
Netanyahu’s UN bombast belies bigger problems
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t mince his words during his fiery 40-minute address at the United Nations, lauding his country’s military efforts over the last year.
“We’ve hammered the Houthis, including yesterday. We crushed the bulk of Hamas’ terror machine. We’ve crippled Hezbollah, taking out most of its leaders and much of its weapons arsenal,” said Netanyahu.
“We destroyed Assad’s armaments in Syria. We deterred Iran’s Shiite militias in Iraq. And most importantly, and above anything else that I can say to you that we did in this past year – in this past decade – we devastated Iran’s atomic weapons and ballistic missiles program.”
For all the harsh rhetoric and usual props – the Israeli leader conducted a pop quiz from the dais using giant cue cards – Netanyahu’s speech masked what has otherwise been a difficult week for him. His flight from Tel Aviv to New York avoided mainland Europe, presumably over fears that he would be arrested by the International Criminal Court on suspicion of war crimes. Several Western countries – including some who have historically backed Israel – recognized Palestinian statehood. There were also coordinated walkouts ahead of Netanyahu’s speech, just like last year, while Netanyahu’s supporters lauded the prime minister from the gallery.
Meanwhile, the war in Gaza is set to reach the two-year mark. Israel will once again mourn the 1,200 lives lost in the terroristic attack on Oct. 7, 2023, as well as the hundreds who were taken hostage by Hamas on that day.
“It is time, as we approach the Jewish high holidays that speak of taking score of what you did and what you did not do over the last year, that maybe [Netanyahu] also has time to reflect and understand that it is time for him, as well, from a Jewish perspective, to do the right thing,” Ruby Chen, whose son Itay was killed on Oct. 7, 2023, told GZERO at the United Nations, “Which is getting a deal to allow 48 families to be reunited with their loved ones again.”
Itay’s remains are still in Hamas hands.
Israel’s invasion of Gaza post-Oct. 7 has garnered international condemnation and accusations of genocide. Yet Netanyahu’s mission is incomplete: Hamas lives on, albeit in weakened form, and 48 hostages – 20 of whom are believed to be alive – remain in captivity. All the while, the Israeli leader’s standing in the international arena, even within the MAGA camp, has diminished – as he acknowledged during his address.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, is hoping to push Bibi to finally end the brutal war – one that has left over 65,000 Gazans dead, per the Hamas-run health ministry. The White House presented a peace plan to Arab and Muslim leaders at the UN this week that includes the immediate return of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and an international advisory group overseeing a Palestinian administration of Gaza. The plan also says that no Gazans can be forcibly removed from the enclave. Washington is hoping that it can leverage its personal relationships with Gulf states to press Israel and the Palestinians to accept its terms.
“I think that's a fantastic plan and very well thought out,” Albert Tamman, a finance worker who travelled from London to attend Netanyahu’s speech, told GZERO. “It’s good that it’s other Muslim countries that take over, so the population can relate to their leaders.”
Netanyahu, however, has resisted recent efforts for a ceasefire, frustrating his allies, electorate, and adversaries alike. It’s unclear whether he or the Palestinians will accept the latest US proposal. The Israeli leader’s speech, though, suggested he still has plans for Gaza.
“Free the hostages now,” he said, in a message that was being streamed to cellphones in Gaza. “If you do, you will live. If you don’t, Israel will hunt you down.”
For more on Israel’s increasing international isolation, see Ian Bremmer’s quick take from earlier this week.
Kenyan workers prepare clothes for export at the New Wide Garment Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Kitengela, Kajiado County, Kenya, on September 19, 2025.
Is the US set to terminate a 33-country trade deal?
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade pact that allows many products from 32 sub-Saharan African states to have free access to US markets, is set to expire in less than a week.
The White House still hasn’t said whether it will renew it.
First signed in 2000 by then-US President Bill Clinton, who saw it as a way to spread democratic ideals in parts of Africa, the deal hasn’t always lived up to expectations. Trade between the countries involved did initially rise, but has since dropped. For most of the countries involved, exports under AGOA account for less than 1% of GDP.
“AGOA’s highly imperfect. It’s a trade regime, and some countries have clearly done better than others,” Brookings Institution senior fellow Witney Schneidman, who was involved in passing and implementing AGOA, told GZERO. “But it needs to be strengthened, not killed.”
Which African nations are the main beneficiaries? South Africa has been by far the biggest beneficiary in terms of raw numbers, exporting nearly $56 billion in non-petroleum products under AGOA from 2001-2022 – specifically, car manufacturers based in South Africa have benefitted immensely. Renewing AGOA was a big reason why South African President Cyril Ramaphosa travelled to Washington in May. Nigeria, the next biggest partner, exported $11.2 billion under AGOA in that timeframe.
As a proportion of output, the country most reliant on AGOA is one that reportedly “nobody has ever heard of”: Lesotho. This landlocked country in southern Africa has built a significant textiles and garments sector on the back of AGOA, such that exports under the trade agreement account for 10% of its total GDP. An end to AGOA, on top of the 15% tariffs implemented at the start of August, would devastate the country’s two million people.
“Lesotho is the biggest beneficiary today, with the least alternative to fill the economic gap,” Ronald Osumba, a political strategist who once ran to be Kenya’s vice president, told GZERO.
For other countries, the importance of AGOA revealed itself when they were no longer included in the pact. Ethiopia was suspended from the pact in 2022 over “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” during the Tigray War. Exports to the United States have plummeted since, several firms have left the country, and over ten thousand jobs are now gone. It was even worse for Madagascar when it was temporarily suspended from the pact in 2010: its GDP dropped 11%.
So what’s in AGOA for the US? Put simply, counterbalancing China and Russia.
“Africa is shifting east,” said Osumba. “China and Russia are having more influence on the continent today than any other time.” Renewing AGOA could help the US balance that influence.
Why does it matter? AGOA nations hold a sizable chunk of the world’s rare-earth minerals. Five of the top 15 sources of rare-earth minerals worldwide are in AGOA. In particular, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, a mineral that is needed for the production of electric minerals. If AGOA isn’t extended, Osumba warned, Washington’s access to these critical minerals could be curtailed.
“There’s a concern there for the US in terms of access to natural resources.”
For Schneidman, it’s not just access to critical minerals: It’s also about leaving business opportunities on the table. He argued that, when it comes to using “trade over aid,” the Trump administration isn’t putting its money where its mouth is, vacating the area to its own detriment.
What’s stopping the US from renewing? US President Donald Trump’s general approach to trade and tariffs provides some hints. He is unafraid to use levies as a way to punish countries who he believes distort markets – the high levies he placed on countries including Brazil, China, India, and South Africa are a testament to this. AGOA grants members states tariff-free to US markets, but doesn’t give American firms anything in return, so it’s possible that Trump sees this as unfair. Plus, his “America First” foreign policy suggests he doesn’t share Clinton’s desire for democracy to spread worldwide.
But Frank Matsaert, an African trade & infrastructure expert at the Tony Blair Institute, believes the punt on AGOA renewal goes beyond this: he believes there’s an information gap.
“They’re not as aware of the potential effects of not renewing it,” Matsaert told GZERO. “If AGOA isn’t renewed, that could threaten $42 billion of bilateral trade.”
Is there any chance of a last minute change? Osumba isn’t hopeful.
“If it was to be done, this conversation should have already started a long time ago.”
Matsaert, meanwhile, retains some hope, providing that someone tells the US president the value of AGOA to his nation.
“This has had a big, positive impact on Africa. It could continue to have a positive impact, particularly at a time when the US is trying to diversify its supply chains,” said Matsaert. “The US consumer benefits, Africa benefits. Why not extend this?”