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National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the then-nominee for US ambassador to the UN, during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.
Chain reaction: Why Trump pulled Stefanik’s UN nomination
Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) hopes of moving to the Big Apple have been dashed after US President Donald Trump asked her to withdraw her candidacy for ambassador to the United Nations.
“As we advance our America First Agenda, it is essential that we maintain EVERY Republican Seat in Congress,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday, admitting the political nature of his decision. When asked about her withdrawal, Stefanik told Fox News, “I have been proud to be a team player.”
Margin call: With four vacancies in the House, Republicans only have a 218-213 majority in the lower chamber, meaning they can only afford to lose three votes anytime they want to pass legislation. Trump fears that, if Stefanik moved to the UN, Republicans could lose the special election to fill her seat.
Bad signal: It’s not Stefanik’s seat that Trump is worried about right now, but rather Florida’s 6th Congressional District, formerly represented by none other than National Security Adviser and Signal-chat-scandal creatorMichael Waltz. There’s a special election there on Tuesday, and the president’s team is concerned that the well-funded Democratic candidate, Josh Weil, could defeat the underfunded Republican candidate, Randy Fine, even though Trump won the Daytona Beach district by 30 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election.
Eye on the poll: An internal Republican poll from March has Weil leading Fine 44% to 41%, according to a source familiar with the race, with 10% undecided. The poll was conducted by Fabrizio Ward, the same firm that worked for Trump’s campaign, and isn’t yet public. The February iteration of this poll found Weil trailing Fine by 12 points.
Graphic Truth: Food insecurity spikes
Hunger and poverty are on the rise in both the United States and Canada, with food insecurity levels spiking dramatically in 2023 as COVID-19 assistance programs expired. That’s been compounded by rising food costs that have left millions struggling to put food on the table.
Canada witnessed a surge in food insecurity, jumping nearly 5 percentage points to 22.9% of the population living in food-insecure households between 2022 and 2023, according to the University of Toronto. According to the 2023 Hunger Count by Food Banks Canada, food banks recorded a record 1.9 million visits, representing a 32% increase compared to the previous year. Parents constituted the largest segment of food bank users, highlighting the acute challenges faced by families. Provincially, Newfoundland and Labrador experienced the highest rate of food insecurity, with 23% of households affected in 2022, followed closely by New Brunswick and Alberta both at 22%.
In the United States, 13.5% of households — approximately 18 million — faced food insecurity at some point during the year, marking a slight rise from 12.8% in 2022, according to a report by USDA. Among the states, Arkansas reported the highest prevalence of food insecurity, with 18.9% of households affected between 2021 and 2023.
Protesters take part in a demonstration march ending in front of the US consulate, under the slogan, “Greenland belongs to the Greenlandic people,” in Nuuk, Greenland, on March 15, 2025.
Vances pare back Greenland trip amid threat of protests
US Second Lady Usha Vance canceled plans to attend Greenland’s biggest dog-sledding race and visit historical sites after officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen balked at an uninvited trip from an official delegation as President Donald Trump pressures Denmark to cede its autonomous Arctic territory to Washington.
Instead, Vice President JD Vance is set to join his wife on Friday at a remote US military base on the Arctic island to “check out what’s going on with the security there of Greenland.”
Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussensaid the US cars shipped as part of an enhanced security detail were being sent home. Danish police ordered extra personnel to Greenland ahead of expected protests against the American delegation.
“It’s very positive that the Americans have canceled their visit among Greenlandic society,” Rasmussen said. “They will only visit their own base … we have nothing against that.”
Still, Rasmus Jarlov, the Danish lawmaker from the conservative opposition party who chairs the parliament’s defense committee, called for the “immediate” shuttering of Washington’s diplomatic mission in the Greenlandic capital. “The American consulate in Nuuk must be closed as soon as possible,” hesaid on X. “No other country would accept people who have openly declared that they are there to annex part of the country.”
An opening for the Danish right? Denmark is set to hold nationwide local elections in November, and a general election in October 2026, where conservatives hope to oust the ruling center-left Social Democrats by pitching themselves to voters as tougher defenders against US aggression.
Greenland’s center-right election victors, meanwhile, are negotiating a ruling coalition for the next government. The only party so far booted from the talks? The populist Naleraq party – considered the most pro-American. The Vances’ visit is unlikely to upend the discussions, particularly as the likelihood of major protests recedes.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during a press conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine March 25, 2025.
Russia derails ceasefire agreement, to Trump’s dismay
The United States announced on Tuesday that Russia and Ukraine had verbally agreed to a temporary ceasefire in the Black Sea and a moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. Ukraine confirmed the agreement — which followed marathon talks in Riyadh — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was grateful to the US for brokering it. But soon after, Moscow introduced fresh conditions for agreeing to a limited ceasefire, including the removal of sanctions on certain Russian banks and exports. Even Donald Trump, in response to Russia’s apparent bait and switch, remarked “it could be they’re dragging their feet,” but said he remained confident that Vladimir Putin wants to strike a deal.
Clouds of war: Russia, meanwhile, is seeking to gain as much ground as possible in Ukraine before there’s a more expansive pause in fighting, incentivizing it to drag out negotiations. On Monday, the Kremlin launched missiles on a residential area in the northeastern city of Sumy that injured 88 people, and a cyberattack hit Ukraine’s ticketing system, resulting in long waits at railway stations. In response, Ukrainian forces struck Russia’s civilian energy infrastructure, which is included in the outline of Tuesday’s ceasefire.
What Ukrainians want: An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians support a broad 30-day truce, according to a March Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll. But just 16% said they would agree to Russia’s publicly stated terms for a fuller ceasefire, with 79% calling it “completely unacceptable.”
What comes next? Trump maintains that he believes both sides want to see an end to the war, and he reiterated that “I just want to see it stop. I also don’t want to pay.” What’s crystal clear is that further talks will be necessary, highlighting how this is merely a bump on the long road to peace in war-torn Ukraine.
“The US can seek to convert these agreements into a broader ceasefire, provided that they hold,” says Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “The back-and-forth talks the Americans have had with the Ukrainians and Russians demonstrate the challenges the Trump administration will face.”
Ukraine ceasefire talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, March 11 2025.
Ukraine, US ceasefire - Russia's move?
Ukraine and the United States on Tuesday jointly announced a proposal fora 30-day ceasefire with Russia, pending approval from the Kremlin.
The deal, brokered during negotiations in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, comes the same day that Ukraine mounted itsbiggest drone attack to date on Moscow, killing at least three people, damaging buildings, and briefly shutting down four major airports. The show of force came after Russia stepped up attacks on Ukraine, following US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance’s shocking shouting match with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointedly addressed Moscow, saying “Ukraine is ready to stop shooting and start talking. And now it’ll be up to them to say yes or no. If they say no, then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.”
The US also confirmed it willimmediately restore intelligence sharing and military aid with Kyiv, both of which had been suspended last week. A minerals deal between Ukraine and the US will also move forward “as soon as possible.” And in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macronurged 30 nations to begin security planning for Ukraine’s long-term stability.
Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer says he expects “the Europeans will come out and support that 30-day cease ceasefire in very short order.” But Putin’s response is another matter, he says, noting that the Russian leader is likely to try to see how quickly he can get a sit-down with Trump. That way “you don’t just talk about that deal, but you put it in the context of a much broader deal and you keep the Europeans out of it.” For more of Ian's insights on this, click here to watch his latest QuickTake.
The statue of the missionary Hans Egede towers over the city center of Nuuk, the capital of Greenland.
Fire and ice: Denmark and Greenland respond to Trump
Donald Trump’s pledge to take over Greenland “one way or another” in his speech to Congress Tuesday night, prompted starkly different responses from the island itself and from Denmark, which currently controls it.
“Greenland is ours,” Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egedewrote in a combative Facebook post on Wednesday. “Americans and their leader must understand that. We do not want to be Americans, nor Danes… Our future is determined by us in Greenland.”
But Danish officials focused on the bright side. It was a “positive development,” said Danish Defense Minister Lund Poulsen, that Trump’s speech acknowledged Greenlanders’ right to self-determination.
“We strongly support your right to determine your own future,” Trump said, “and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.”
What Greenlanders want: Recent polls show a majority favor independence, while 85% oppose joining America. But opinion is split on whether Trump’s interest is a “threat” or an “opportunity” for the sprawling, resource-rich Arctic island.
All of this hangs over Greenland’s upcoming election, set for March 11. All parties support independence but differ on how to achieve it. The new government will likely call a referendum on this issue, amid growing pressure from Washington.
In advance of the election, Greenland’s lawmakers have tightened restrictions on campaign contributions and property purchases by foreigners.
Read more: Why does Trump want Greenland anyway? Here are three reasons.The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama
Listen: On the GZERO World Podcast, we’re taking a look at some of the top geopolitical risks of 2025. This looks to be the year that the G-Zero wins. As longtime listeners will know, a G-Zero world is an era when no one power or group of powers is both willing and able to drive a global agenda and maintain international order. We’ve been living with this lack of international leadership for nearly a decade now. But in 2025, the problem will get a lot worse. We are heading back to the law of the jungle. A world where the strongest do what they can while the weakest are condemned to suffer what they must. And the former—whether states, companies, or individuals—can't be trusted to act in the interest of those they have power over. It's not a sustainable trajectory. But it’s the one we’re on. Joining Ian Bremmer to peer into this cloudy crystal ball is renowned Stanford political scientist Francis Fukuyama.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. January 4, 2025.
Meloni joins Trump at Mar-a-Lago — with Europe’s economy on the line
President-elect Donald Trump was full of praise for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during her surprise visit to Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, calling her a “fantastic woman” who has “really taken Europe by storm.” The two caught a screening of a right-wing documentary and then had dinner. Meloni has a lot riding on making a good impression as Trump has threatened tariffs that would severely hamper Europe’s economic growth.
Neither side released details of what they discussed, but Meloni has been on a charm offensive since Trump won the US election. She also met with Trump at the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral last month in Paris and has worked hard to establish a close relationship with key Trump ally Elon Musk. She has called Musk a personal “friend” and a “genius” who’s been wrongly maligned for supporting Trump – Musk even had to deny the two were in a romantic relationship in September.
The personal is political. Meloni has set herself up as a unique bridge between Brussels and Trumpworld, putting her in the driver’s seat as the European Union prepares to negotiate to buy more oil and gas from the United States, without which Trump has threatened “TARIFFS all the way!!!”
The problem? Europe already buys a ton of US hydrocarbons, so much so that industry experts don’t think the bloc can import more. We’re watching for other European leaders to give Meloni broad deference on her preferred migration policies so long as she can continue to play Trump-whisperer.