Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
China's stockpiling nukes. Should we be worried?
China is growing its stockpile of nuclear weapons faster than any country in the world and very soon, its total number of warheads will match that of the US and Russia. How will that change the global balance of power? On GZERO World, Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, joins Ian Bremmer for a sober assessment of the current nuclear threat, and warns that China’s nuclear ambitions are his top concern.
The Chinese have dramatically ramped up their strategic nuclear weapons program, with a stated goal of 1,500 deployable nuclear warheads, likely within the next five years. The US will soon be facing a second nuclear superpower for the first time, but Stavridis says the US still has time to modernize, shore up alliances, and avoid losing the nuclear race.
“China is going from a pretty modest inventory of around 300 to a stated goal of 1,500 deployable nuclear warheads,” Stavridis says, “There is a whole new structure we have never encountered. We’ve never had a three-handed triangle of major nuclear powers.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Chelsea players celebrate next to US President Donald Trump after beating Paris Saint-Germain in the Club World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, on July 13, 2025.
Three things we learned from the Club World Cup
On a muggy afternoon in New Jersey yesterday, a London-based, American-owned soccer club beat a Qatari-owned, French-based one to win the Club World Cup final, as Chelsea defeated Paris Saint-Germain 3-0. US President Donald Trump not only watched, but came down to the field for the trophy ceremony himself.
The United States hosted the tournament, which featured the world’s top soccer clubs, as a dress rehearsal for next year’s World Cup, which will pit national teams against each other in matches taking place across the US, Mexico, and Canada. As we look ahead to that tournament, the most-watched sporting event in the world, what did we learn from this year’s club tournament?
Donald Trump will embrace next year’s World Cup.
Just look at the trophy ceremony yesterday: the US leader descended from his box seats to hand the trophy to Chelsea captain Reece James, before standing among the team as they celebrated.
This is surprising to some degree: football is a global sport, and this was a global club tournament where none of the US-based teams advanced to the latter stages. The ticket prices were expensive and most of the games took place on the coasts. The tournament smacked of “globalism” and elitism — two things that sit uneasily with Trump’s America First styling.
But the president is also a born performer who wouldn’t miss a chance to be in the global spotlight.
Looking ahead to next year, expect the US president to cut a large figure in the World Cup tournament, even if that means jilting fellow hosts Canada and Mexico. If things go well, he’ll take the credit. If they don’t, he’ll almost certainly blame the neighbors. And at the very end of it all, don’t be surprised if he tries to throw a red MAGA hat on one of the winning side’s players – remember when the Qatari emir threw a traditional bisht robe on Argentine champion Lionel Messi during the trophy ceremony for the last World Cup in Doha?
This tournament tested the relationship between footballing authorities and the players.
Following the lead of many of the world’s top national football leagues, FIFA, the sports global governing body, wants players to play more and more games. Not only has it vastly expanded the Club World Cup – the tournament used to feature just 7 teams and was 10 days long, whereas this one gathered 32 teams and lasted a month – it has also increased the number of countries in next year’s World Cup to 48, up from 32.
The players are hitting back, voicing concerns about player welfare. It didn’t help that they had to play in the stifling American summer heat, nor that FIFA failed to even invite the players’ union Fifpro to a recent meeting about off-season breaks – the union also slammed the Club World Cup on Monday, as well as its organizers. Certain footballers like England’s Ben White have shunned international duty, and it’s possible that others may follow suit with the brutal schedule.
Could that affect whether some of the games top stars play in the World Cup next year? The world’s most celebrated athletes have labor disputes too.
Finally, international tensions will cloud next year’s tournament.
While the Club World Cup didn’t figure much in most Americans’ daily lives, next year’s tournament between international teams will dominate headlines and cities. The demand for tickets will be vastly higher, and thousands will come to support their teams from abroad.
Yet questions lurk about which fans will be able to attend next year, and which ones will want to attend.
However, Trump recently signed a travel ban that bars citizens from 12 countries from entering the United States. One of those countries is Iran, which has already qualified for the World Cup.
They might not be the only ones either. Haiti and Sudan could also qualify for the World Cup, yet both are on the travel ban list. What’s more, the Trump administration has warned another 36 countries – including likely World Cup qualifiers Egypt, Ivory Coast, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – that it may add them to the list if they don’t fix certain safety concerns.
FIFA President Gianni Infantino has been working hard to maintain the global aspect of the World Cup. He has also heaped praise on Trump each time he appears at the White House for a soccer-related event – he even attended the president’s second inauguration – as he hopes to keep the US president on board with his plans. With a travel ban already in place, and a possible expansion to follow, Infantino has his work cut out if he wants to keep soccer’s top tournament accessible to its most adoring and committed fans.
Riot police officers fire tear gas canisters to disperse demonstrators during anti-government protests dubbed “Saba Saba People’s March,” in the Rift Valley town of Nakuru, Kenya, on July 7, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Kenya’s president cracks down further, UK and France open an atomic umbrella, Trump meddles in Brazil
Ruto orders police to shoot looters as Kenya protest escalate
Amid ongoing anti-government protests, Kenyan President William Ruto has ordered police to shoot looters in the legs. The order is meant to stop attacks on businesses, but could lead to more casualties after 31 people were killed on Monday alone. The youth-led protesters want Ruto to resign over high taxes, corruption allegations, and police brutality. According to Mercy Kaburu, a professor of international relations at United States International University in Nairobi, Ruto’s government “is not at risk of collapse before the next general election” which is set for 2027. But, she cautions, he “could be threatened if nothing changes.”
United Kingdom and France to open their nuclear umbrella
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron signed a landmark deal aimed Thursday at restricting the flow of migrants across the English Channel. But the cross-channel agreement that may draw more attention globally is a pledge from Europe’s only two nuclear-armed nations to extend their nuclear umbrellas to allies on the continent who face an “extreme threat.” This is a big step toward “common European defense” at a time when Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty about the US long-term commitment to NATO have prompted more urgent action in Europe.
Trump uses tariffs to meddle in Brazil
US President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the US will slap 50% on Brazil starting on August 1. The reason? Trump blasted Brazil for its “unfair” treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a rightwing firebrand and close Trump ally who is currently on trial for allegedly plotting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Trump also cited an “unsustainable” US trade deficit with Brazil, though official data show the US actually runs a small trade surplus with Latin America’s largest economy. Brazil’s leftwing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, reportedly blindsided by the announcement, has vowed to respond with reciprocal measures.
See below for Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take on what Trump’s move really means.
Demonstrators with US and Ukrainian flags rally near the U.S. Capitol ahead of President Donald Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress in Washington, D.C., USA, on March 4, 2025.
Explainer: Why did the US cut off critical military support for Ukraine this week?
Earlier this week, the US cut shipments of a number of weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot interceptor missiles, a critical part of Kyiv’s air defenses. Here’s a short guide to making sense of why that happened, and how it could affect the course of the Russia-Ukraine war.
What is a Patriot interceptor? It’s one of the world’s most advanced air defenses, able to shoot ballistic missiles out of the sky. The US-made system is sold to nearly 20 countries, and was first given to Ukraine in early 2023. The Patriot’s main theaters of action are Ukraine as well as in the Middle East, where it has protected US forces and Israel from ballistic missiles launched by Iran or Iran-aligned groups.
Why did the US stop sending them to Ukraine? Low stockpiles, evidently. Nearly two years of intense use in both Ukraine and the Middle East have crushed supplies of Patriot missiles, of which only about 500 are made annually, and drawn resources away from other critical weapons systems as well.
After the Trump administration bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities ten days ago, for example, American forces fired the largest salvo of Patriots “in history” to repel Tehran’s (well-telegraphed) retaliatory airstrikes on the US base in Qatar. That may have pushed supplies below critical levels, raising concerns about broader US weapons production capacity.
Still, this is a message to Ukraine, right? Even if concern about scarcity was the primary motivation, US President Donald Trump – who won the election in part on promises to cut aid for Ukraine and force both sides into a “deal” – has clearly hit Kyiv with the short end of the stick here.
It’s worth noting that the decision to cut the shipments to Ukraine reportedly came from Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, a prominent China hawk who sees support for Ukraine as a distraction from challenging Beijing.
And that’s not the only China connection in this story. Amid a growing trade and technology war with Washington, Beijing recently banned the US-bound export of certain minerals that are essential in weapons manufacturing. Among them were gallium, antimony, and germanium, critical components of various weapons and ammunition systems, including the Patriot.
“To me, this is the most interesting untold story,” says Eurasia Group research director Marc Gustafson, a former national security intelligence chief, “mostly because the Pentagon cannot talk about it. China’s bans have been crushing for the US defense industry, particularly regarding the weapons the US has been providing to Ukraine and Israel.”
How badly will this decision hurt Ukraine? Kyiv called the announcement a “total shock.” At a moment when Russia has been launching its most ferocious – and increasingly indiscriminate – aerial assaults of the entire war, losing the Patriots will leave Ukraine’s cities and civilians vastly more exposed to the Kremlin’s missiles and drones.
But the move will have less effect on Kyiv’s primary goal of simply holding off Russia at the front lines, says Alex Brideau, Eurasia Group’s top Ukraine and Russia expert. “It’s not a back breaker,” he says. Still, if the Trump administration cuts to conventional ammunition last for any length of time, Ukraine could be in more serious trouble fast.
People followed by mourners carry the coffins of Azerbaijani brothers Huseyn and Ziyaddin Safarov, who died in Russian police custody, to a cemetery in Hacibedelli, Azerbaijan, on July 1, 2025, in this still image from video.
Hard Numbers: Russia and Azerbaijan tensions rise, Americans hit the road in record numbers, & More
2: Russia-Azerbaijan ties are fraying after the South Caucasus country said two Azeri brothers died last week after being tortured in Russian police custody. In retaliation, Azerbaijan has arrested half a dozen Russian state journalists working in the capital, Baku. The two former-Soviet countries generally get along but have had frictions over Azeri migrant labor in Russia, an Azerbaijan Airlines plane that was shot down over Russian airspace, and Moscow’s backing for Armenia in that country’s decades long conflict with Azerbaijan. The Kremlin said Azerbaijan was being “extremely emotional.”
87.1%: In the latest blow to free movement in Europe, Poland has introduced checks along its borders with Germany and Lithuania, partly a response to the surging number of people seeking first-time asylum in the country – the amount increased 87.1% from 2023 to 2024, more than any other country in Europe. The move is also a tit-for-tat measure, after Berlin introduced its own checks at the Polish-German frontier.
500: The war is going from bad to worse for Ukraine: After Russia launched over 500 drones and other missiles into its cities over the weekend, the United States halted a weapons shipment that was headed to Ukraine. The White House said it was putting its own interests first after lending military support to other countries.
14: With international demand for customer service centers soaring, is Africa ready to answer the call? Experts think so, predicting that the “Business-Process Outsourcing” industry will grow 14% annually on the continent in the coming years, nearly twice the global average. Anglophone African countries are particularly well positioned – the industry is growing nearly 20% per year in Kenya.
72.2 Million: A record 72.2 million Americans are set to travel domestically during the upcoming Fourth of July holiday weekend, according to the AAA, a nationwide motorists’ group. More than 60 million of them will be taking trips by car, driven – as it were – by the lowest summer gas prices since 2021 (and some fight delays).
US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One after departing early from the the G7 summit in Canada to return to Washington, D.C., on June 17, 2025.
Why hasn’t US inflation boomed?
When US President Donald Trump announced a swath of tariffs on virtually every US trading partner on April 2 – which he dubbed “Liberation Day” – most economists had the same warning: prices will rise. What’s more, Trump’s plan to deport millions of undocumented migrants and his adviser’s idea to weaken the US dollar would add to the buoyant pressure on prices.
Exactly three months on, those inflation distress calls appear to have been misplaced: the inflation rate was 2.4% in May, within touching distance of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and far below the rates seen in 2022 under former President Joe Biden – even with the dollar having its worst start to a year in over 50 years.
So why haven’t prices skyrocketed, as some economists warned?
First of all, not all the tariffs have even been imposed. When US treasury markets began to suffer following the announcement of “retaliatory tariffs,” Trump pulled back, pausing these extra taxes until July 9. What’s left of his new tariff policies are a 10% across-the-board levy – even these were briefly invalidated – a 55% rate on Chinese imports (down from 145%), and sectoral duties on goods like steel, aluminum, and auto parts. The US president has also allowed for a smattering of exemptions, most notably on smartphones and computers – those must have been a rotten Apple.
Secondly, businesses have made choices that have put a cap on price hikes.
Part of this is simply due to firms waiting for Trump to finalize his tariffs plans before they start passing on the higher costs to consumers, per University of Missouri economics professor Joseph Haslag.
“During the heyday of the negotiations, I don’t think anyone wanted to start raising prices until they knew what the final deal was going to look like,” he said.
Some of it is also thanks to forward planning. When Trump initially announced the tariffs, some firms stocked up on inputs before the duties came into effect. This has allowed them to hold prices as they continue to sell inventory that was purchased at pre-Liberation Day prices.
Finally, there are some economic factors that are putting downward pressure on prices, per Haslag. The economy is slowing, reducing demand and lowering inflation rates. What’s more, artificial intelligence may have already started helping firms to lower prices: it boosts worker and business productivity, allowing them to produce more in less time and at less cost.
Trump feels validated. The president will see the misguided warnings of high inflation as the latest example of the media and the “deep state” trying, and failing, to take him down – he lauded the low inflation rates during a May speech in Saudi Arabia. As such, he will feel that he has the green light to continue advancing other elements of his agenda, safe in the belief that any cautions from the “establishment” can be shot down as “fake news.”
Aren’t those “reciprocal tariffs” coming back though? Affirmative – they return just one week from now, and Trump’s plans are still up in the air. He has only negotiated one trade deal – with the United Kingdom – despite saying soon after “Liberation Day” that he had made 200. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that there might be some flexibility on the timing, which would be in line with the president’s past actions.
“July 9 is not a drop-dead date on which tariffs are going to be implemented across the board,” said Haslag. “We’ve had other sorts of deadlines that have come and passed over the past few months with regards to tariffs.”
The chickens always come home to roost. For any political gains Trump may have made thanks to lower-than-expected inflation rates, this upcoming deadline for the reciprocals creates a major dilemma for Trump: either he “chickens out” again, as one columnist jokingly suggested, or he actually imposes these hefty duties. The Fourth of July celebrations this weekend may not be as expensive as once feared – will Americans be able to say the same for Labor Day, Thanksgiving, or even Christmas?As the Israel-Iran conflict dies down, the domestic battles reignite
It’s been just over a week since US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite a brief exchange of bombs – and Trump’s f-bomb – in the immediate aftermath of this announcement, a tepid truce appears to be holding, even if questions remain about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities.
But how did the flare-up affect the domestic politics of each country involved? Let’s explore how the 12-day conflict affected the political fortunes of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and Trump.
Israel: Netanyahu off the ropes, for now.
Three weeks ago, it looked like Netanyahu was staring into the abyss, with his coalition government on the verge of collapse. He survived the vote, then bombed Iran, destroying parts of its nuclear facilities and killing several senior military officials. As a coup de grace, he got the US to join the cause as well.
The data reflects that this was a success for the Israeli leader. Some 70% of Israelis supported the strikes, per one poll, and he also received an electoral polling bump.
Yet Netanyahu isn’t out of the woods – far from it. Though the fighting has ended with Iran, it continues in Gaza. It’s this conflict – and the failure to retrieve the remaining 50 Israeli hostages – that dominates Israel’s domestic politics right now, and it has put Netanyahu in a Catch-22, per Aaron David Miller, a former US diplomat who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“He’s trapped between his right-wing coalition partners, and public opinion – but even more important, potentially, Donald Trump,” says Miller, referencing how Netanyahu’s right flank doesn’t want him to make a deal with Hamas, whereas the Israeli public and Trump do.
What’s more, Netanyahu still faces a corruption trial. Miller noted that Israel’s judicial branch hasn’t been afraid to imprison the top public officials – former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert served 16 months in jail for bribery – so “this is not an academic matter” to the incumbent leader.
Still, the aura of success surrounding his Iran mission has changed things for him. And with the next election not due until the fall of 2026, he has room to breathe, politically.
“There’s no doubt that his brand has been enhanced tremendously,” says Miller. “He’s probably under less pressure now than at any time since the government was formed in December 2022.”
Iran: Khamenei is down but not out.
The Supreme leader is “categorically weaker” than he was before the conflict, says Dr. Saram Vakil, an Iran expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House.
The reasons are clear: the war significantly damaged Iran, and exposed its military vulnerability. The Islamic Republic lost control of its own skies, its nuclear facilities were heavily damaged. Its response to Israel inflicted little damage, and, after the US airstrikes, Tehran responded with a feeble, face-saving wave of airstrikes against the US base in Qatar – and they reportedly told Trump ahead of time.
Khamenei tried to claim victory, saying that Tehran had “dealt a severe slap to the face of America,” in his first public address after the ceasefire was announced. However, the 86-year-old “looked very diminished” in the video, per Vakil. He was reportedly hastening succession talks during the conflict while hiding in a bunker.
In a bid to quell any potential uprising and maintain the regime’s existence – Khamenei’s top priority – the Islamic Republic has turned to a familiar tactic: mass arrests, executions, and military deployments. Boosting the public’s support for the regime, though, will require a lot more work.
“He has long been criticized, and I think long been held as responsible for the economic stagnation [and] the country’s standoff with the international community. He’s not a bold leader,” Vakil said of the Ayatollah. “There are no clear or easy avenues for him personally or for the state to re-legitimize themselves.”
There is a saving grace for Khamenei: Iran’s powerful military – the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – is unlikely to overthrow him, per Vakil, and his nuclear facilities remain somewhat intact, at least according to one intercepted call. The supreme leader is down, but not yet out.
United States: Trump celebrates, but also treads carefully
Though initial intelligence assessments were mixed about the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, no American troops died during the attacks and Iran’s immediate response was minor and contained. That seemed to put to rest dire warnings, including from within Trump’s own MAGA camp, that involving the US in another Middle East war would, in the words of former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, “tear the country apart.”
But if the mission didn’t rip up the country, it also hardly united it, according to Larry Sabato, a US politics professor at the University of Virginia.
“Look at the surveys. There’s almost always a rally-around-the flag effect [after a war]. Not this time!”
A CNN/SRSS poll found that just 44% of Americans supported Trump’s strikes on Iran. But his approval ratings – currently in the low 40s – were unmoved by the mission, suggesting that in the end, the relatively limited military engagement has had little political effect.
In fact, if there is something Middle East-related that could cause significant damage to Trump’s ratings, per Sabato, it would be the US getting more involved in the conflict – something few Americans want.
As such, the US president would be wise not to invest too much energy in resolving tensions between Israel and Iran, meaning he will have to work hard to preserve a shaky peace between two bitter adversaries
“Trump’s not going to be the next FDR,” Sabato told GZERO, referencing President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s prominence in the American imagination as a great statesman of both war and peace. “Biden made that mistake – thinking he would be the next FDR – but I don’t think that Trump’s going to be that stupid.”A banner announces the construction of a photovoltaic solar farm in Cabaiguan, Cuba, on May 21, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: China becomes top Cuba benefactor, Canada backs down, & More
55: China is financing 55 new solar power projects in Cuba this year, the latest sign of how it is overtaking Russia as the crisis-wracked island’s main benefactor. Some of Moscow’s recent projects in the communist country have stalled: a Russian firm pledged two years ago to revitalize a sugar mill that once employed 2,000 people, but it still sits idle.
3%: In a win for US President Donald Trump, Canada walked back on its 3% Digital Services Tax that prompted the United States to suspend trade talks on Friday. The tax, which disproportionately affected American technology firms, was set to take effect on Monday.
71: Israel’s strike last Tuesday allegedly killed 71 people at a notorious detention facility in Tehran, per Iranian State Media. The prison houses thousands of political prisoners, including opposition politicians, journalists, and activists.
4,000: More than a third of Tuvalu’s population – around 4,000 residents – have applied for a landmark ‘climate visa,’ which grants Australian residency to migrants from Pacific Island nations battling rising sea levels. NASA scientists expect that the country’s main island, home to 60% of the population, will be fully submerged by 2050.
$80,000: US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem reportedly re-routed $80,000 in political donations to a newly established personal company during her time as South Dakota’s governor in 2023. Noem’s lawyer said she “fully complied with the letter and the spirit of the law.”