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European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen.
Europe’s Commish chooses her team
European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen on Tuesday named the team that will work with her as she heads into her second term as the EU’s most powerful official.
What’s the Commission? It’s 27 officials, one from each member state, who propose and oversee EU laws. Think immigration, antitrust, trade, and tech regulation. A key responsibility is drafting the EU budget.
Foreign and defense portfolios went to arch-Russia hawks from the Baltics, while Spain, Italy, and France – which generally favor more state economic intervention – got industrial policy and competition-related files. The choice of a hard-right politician from Italy raised hackles on the left, but it’s part of Von der Leyen’s strategy of engaging the right, in particular Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, to head off a wider populist backlash.
She also nearly reached her goal of gender parity, noting that some member states failed to follow the protocol of nominating one female and one male candidate for each post.
“She’s lining up all her ducks,” says Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker. The big task? Implementing the new $800 billion annual do-or-die economic reform proposals of former ECB president Mario Draghi. “That money isn’t going to materialize out of thin air,” says Peker. It will have to come either from debt issuance, unpopular with the union’s fiscal hawks, or by taking money from popular economic support programs. Either option will be a bruising political fight.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pays tribute to the 309 victims of the earthquake that struck, in L'Aquila, Italy, on 5 April 2009.
No, Meloni is probably not going rogue
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has accused EU leadership of falling prey to fake news after they issued a report highlighting press freedom issues in the country. The spat comes a week after Meloni abstained from voting for Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission and instructed members of her Brothers of Italy party to vote against von der Leyen’s confirmation.
The two moments of tension have many wondering: Is a storm brewing in Brussels?
Probably not, according to Eurasia Group’s Europe Managing Director Mujtaba Rahman, who believes “the narrative of a fundamental split between Meloni and von der Leyen, Rome and Brussels, is being overdone.”
“Meloni has little to gain from a split, and von der Leyen also wants to avoid confrontation,” he adds.
Over the past two years, Meloni has forged better-than-expected ties with EU leadership, especially after von der Leyen backed the Italian leader’s tough approach to migration and agreed to change some of the original spending plans for Italy’s €200 billion share of EU recovery funds ahead of her reelection.
“Meloni’s abstention was tactical,” says Rahman. “Her strategic — and far more important decision — was to not join the new far-right grouping in the European Parliament.” The group, led by Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen, was blocked from holding the top jobs in any committees, despite being the third largest group in parliament.
Why Trump really wanted JD Vance as running mate
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How did JD Vance, who once called Trump “America's Hitler,” become his VP pick?
Well, of course, that isn't exactly what he said. He said that he goes back and forth between thinking that Trump is either a cynical asshole like Richard Nixon, who could actually be good for the country, or he could be America's Hitler. How come no one's actually reporting the actual quote? And it's because the media's freaking horrible is why. And because the algorithms promote stupidity and fake news, and disinformation. But the answer to the question is because Vance is really smart, very aligned with Trump. He's very, let's say, situationally ideological and wants to win, doesn't bring a lot of votes for Trump, but Trump doesn’t think he needs them. Last time around, when Trump was running and picked Mike Pence, he was looking for an establishment figure that would get him more votes and that would make Trump seem more approachable and attractive to a larger group of voters. Trump now thinks he can win the election either way, so he's picking the person he really wants. That's what's going on.
Will the EU reelect Ursula von der Leyen as president?
Almost certainly, yes. There are still questions about where exactly she's getting the votes for. She can't afford to lose a lot of people from the parties that, in principle, support her in a secret ballot. But there aren't good options for her, and everyone I talk to in positions of leadership in the EU thinks that she is a layup there.
Why did Orbán choose to visit Russia and China despite knowing it would upset EU leaders?
Well, mostly because he wants to portray himself and not just in the six-month rotating chair of the European Union, but more broadly as the person who can represent the Chinese and the Russian view, that gives him more leverage, especially if Trump becomes president. That’s why he went to Mar-a-Lago right after NATO, saying, I'm the one in the EU that knows what these people are saying. I'm the person that can connect with you. It's not like he's trying to leave the European Union. He needs their money, but he wants to position himself more strongly and as the outlier, that's the easiest way for him to do it.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party leader Marine Le Pen and party President Jordan Bardella address militants listens after French President announced he is calling for new general elections on June 30, during an evening gathering on the final day of the European Parliament election, at the Pavillon Chesnaie du Roy in Paris, on June 9, 2024.
Left in the dust: European voters swing right
Europe took a hard right turn in European Parliament elections this weekend, dealing a substantial blow to key EU leaders German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron, prompting the latter to call early elections.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party surged to 31.5% support – more than twice as much as Macron’s Renaissance coalition, with 14.5%. Close behind are the Socialists and their lead candidate Raphaël Glucksmann with 14%.
A sober-looking Macron took to French television to dissolve parliament and called for elections on June 30, with a second round on July 7. The outcome of the EU elections, he said, was “not a good result for parties who defend Europe.” This is a gamble for Macron: A similar far-right wave in the French parliamentary election could see his party lose its majority.
In Germany, projections show the far-right Alternative for Germany set to secure second place with 16.5% of the vote, a record high. Support for Scholz’s Social Democratic Party and coalition partner Free Democratic Party declined, securing 14% and 5% of the vote, respectively. And Germany’s Greens took the biggest hit, dropping a whopping 8.5 percentage points to 12%, as cash-strapped voters spurned costly environmental policies.
Coalition time: Post-election, European political parties realign in blocs in the EU Parliament. The largest, the center-right European People’s Party, has recently shifted right on issues of security, climate, and migration, and could swing further to the right if joined by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy. Another scenario would see Meloni’s group and other far-right parties such as Viktor Orban’s Fidesz party stay with the more hard-line European Conservatives and Reformists group, or become part of a new hard-right group that could form the wake of the elections. We’ll be watching the horse trading as coalitions take shape.Ursula von der Leyen
Hard Numbers: Aid corridor, Starving in Sudan, Iran the executioner, Uber-vaccinated in Deutschland, Nightmarish sea lizard
230: The government of Cyprus, just 230 miles from Gaza, has proposed the establishment of a one-way maritime corridor to provide uninterrupted aid to Palestinian civilians trapped there. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the island nation later this week to discuss the plan.
25 million: The World Food Program warns that war in Sudan now threatens the food security of 25 million people in Sudan, South Sudan, and Chad, making it the world’s largest hunger crisis.
834: A new report from the Norway-based Iran Human Rights organization says Iran executed at least 834 people in 2023, the highest total in two decades and a 435 surge from the previous year. Iranian authorities have faced large recent protests over its repressive social policies.
217: According to the Lancet, a medical journal, a 62-year-old German man who voluntarily received 217 coronavirus jabs over 29 months has shown “no signs” of COVID-19 and has not suffered vaccine-related side effects. #SeemsExcessive
26: Scientists have discovered fossils belonging to a "nightmarish" 26-foot-long sea lizard with “dagger-like” teeth that stalked the world’s oceans 66 million years ago. We’re curious whether the inevitable Hollywood blockbuster will be a horror film or an animated musical.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at BusinessEurope conference in Brussels, Belgium March 5, 2020.
Hard Numbers: Von der Leyen seeks reelection, Israel GDP plummets, Ukrainian troops captured, Something’s smelly in Cape Town, Moïse’s widow indicted
20: Since the start of the war in Gaza, Israel's GDP has plummeted by nearly 20%. The biggest economic hits came from the government calling 300,000 reservists away from their jobs to Gaza, relocating 120,000 Israelis away from the border, and restricting Palestinian West Bank workers from working in the country.
1,000: Up to 1,000 Ukrainian troops appear to have been captured during Russia’s takeover of the east Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. The loss is a sign of military supplies dwindling in the absence of new US funding, damaging morale, and Ukraine’s ability to hold the line.
19,000: After searching for days to locate the source of the “unimaginable stench” that engulfed Cape Town, South African officials finally found the culprit: a ship transporting 19,000 live cattle from Brazil to Iraq. The ship is set to depart soon, but the country is seeing an uptick in livestock bound for the Middle East passing through Cape Town as an alternative to the Red Sea route amid Houthi violence there.
51: Martine Moïse is among 51 people indicted for alleged involvement in the July 2021 assassination of her husband, then-Haitian President Jovenel Moïse. Attorneys for Mrs. Moïse, who was wounded in the attack, denied the charges and questioned the legitimacy of the 122-page indictment, which doesn’t provide evidence of her direct involvement.
FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Hard Numbers: Lampedusa landings soar, Aussies rally for indigenous rights, Vatican makes Holocaust admission, Brand accused of rape
8,000: European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen traveled to the island of Lampedusa, which lies halfway between Sicily and Tunisia, after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for the EU’s assistance with a wave of small boat arrivals there. Over 8,000 migrants have landed on Lampedusa since Friday. For more on how the immigration debate is dividing European governments, see our explainer here.
20,000: In Brisbane, Australia, 20,000 protestors rallied ahead of an Oct.14 referendum on Indigenous rights. They support measures that would enshrine Indigenous groups in the country’s constitution and set up an advisory body to advance their issues.
1942: A never-before seen letter has revealed that Pope Pius XII knew of the horrors of the Holocaust in 1942, far earlier than previously believed. The letter was released by the Vatican ahead of a major conference on Pius and the Holocaust next month at the Pontifical Gregorian, sponsored by Catholic and Jewish organizations.
6: Ukraine is stepping up its drone attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry says its forces stopped six Ukrainian unmanned craft that were attacking Russian targets in Crimea from different directions on Sunday. On the same day, two Ukrainian drones were shot down near Moscow.
4: Four women have accused British comedian and actor Russell Brand of sexual assaults, including rape, committed between 2006 and 2013. Brand, who has amassed millions of followers by styling himself as an anti-establishment truth teller and wellness guru, has denied all charges, saying they are "a litany of extremely egregious and aggressive attacks as well as some pretty stupid stuff."