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FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau listens to Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland during news conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 31, 2018.
Is Trudeau about to take a walk in the snow?
Canadians might not be feeling quite so superior about dysfunctional American politics after watching this week’s fiasco in Ottawa unfold like an episode of “Veep.” The resignation on Monday of Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s finance minister and deputy prime minister, sparked the most chaotic day in Canadian politics in decades.
Freeland was due to deliver a mini-budget known as the fall economic statement at 4 p.m. Yet, at 9 a.m., the finance minister rocked the Canadian capital when she revealed she was quitting the Cabinet, disbanding the double act that has led Canada for much of the past nine years.
In a searing resignation letter, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s chief lieutenant and ally said that the country faces a grave challenge, with the incoming Trump administration threatening 25% tariffs on all Canadian exports to the US.
She said Canada needs to keep its fiscal powder dry and not spend it on “costly political gimmicks,” referring to the sales tax holiday and US$175 per person thinly veiled electoral bribe that Trudeau promised — against the better judgment of his finance minister and her department.
Most damaging of all, Freeland crystallized the nagging sense, felt by many people, that Trudeau is more focused on his own future than on that of everyday Canadians.
“They know when we are working for them, and they equally know when we are focused on ourselves,” she said.
Coming from someone who has worked so closely with the prime minister, it was devastating stuff, and it has left Trudeau badly wounded — perhaps fatally — as other dissidents in the ruling Liberal Cabinet and caucus consider their next move. One Liberal member of Parliament said between 40 and 50 of 153 caucus members actively want Trudeau to resign, a feeling that was strengthened after the party was trounced in a by-election in British Columbia on Monday.
Trudeau said he will take the Christmas break to consider his options, which appear limited. The left-leaning New Democratic Party has helped prop up the minority Liberal government, but its leader, Jagmeet Singh, has also called for the prime minister to resign.
When Parliament resumes in late January, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party will seek to table a vote of no confidence in the government at the first opportunity, and it looks like it will have the votes in the House of Commons to send Canada to its 45th general election.
Freeland’s bombshell was designed to cause Trudeau maximum inconvenience.
Finance officials were forced to put the mini-budget on hold until they could determine who should deliver it.
Poilievre stood in the House of Commons during the daily question period and asked, “A question for the finance minister: Who are you?”
The government’s own order of precedence suggested the industry minister, François-Philippe Champagne, would assume the duties of finance minister, but he was unaware of that reality when confronted by journalists and is said to have refused to read out a document he had no role in drafting. The next person in line, Randy Boissonnault, was forced to resign from the Cabinet last month, adding to the tragicomic mood.
By the day’s end, Trudeau had persuaded the public safety minister, Dominic LeBlanc, to assume the role of finance minister, and he was sworn in in time to table the fall economic statement in the House of Commons.
It all felt like governing by improv, led by a prime minister in office but not in control. Nobody seems to have been more surprised than Trudeau by Freeland’s resignation, but he really should not have been. In her letter, Freeland said the prime minister told her last Friday that he no longer wanted her to serve as finance minister and offered her another position.
It has since been reported that in an hourlong Zoom call, he told her that she would be replaced as finance minister by former central banker Mark Carney; he asked her to be the point person for Canada-US relations but not as the minister of global affairs, a job held by Mélanie Joly. (Carney has not commented on his intentions, nor has he been named as Freeland’s successor.)
It is perhaps just as well for Canada that Freeland declined and offered her resignation.
The now-former finance minister is not popular with the incoming US president, a point Donald Trump made in a provocative post on social media late on Monday.
“The Great State of Canada is stunned as the finance minister resigns, or was fired, from her position by Governor Justin Trudeau. Her behavior was totally toxic, and not at all conducive to making deals which are good for the very unhappy citizens of Canada. She will not be missed!!!,” Trump wrote.
Freeland attracted the president-elect’s ire during his first term in office, when she appeared on a panel at a summit in Toronto called “Taking on the Tyrant,” against a backdrop of a rogue’s gallery of autocrats, including Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bashar al-Assad and … Trump.
The then-president subsequently said, “We don’t like their representative [Freeland] very much.”
Trump’s reelection has proven to be the catalyst for the crisis that has hit the Canadian government. Trudeau and Freeland were simpatico for much of the government’s nine years in power — a free-spending Thelma and Louise, intent on pioneering feminist and social justice policies, even if they risked driving off a fiscal cliff (Canada’s debt has doubled under Trudeau).
But Trump’s threat of tariffs and his repeated references to Canada as the “51st state” have created existential panic in a country that sends three-quarters of its exports south of the border.
Trudeau and LeBlanc headed to Mar-a-Lago resort to pay tribute to the president-elect, only to be humiliated when it was leaked that Trump had said Trudeau could be governor if Canada joined the US as a state. If it was a joke, Canada isn’t laughing.
Trudeau has proven to be very New Testament in his approach to Trump, turning the other cheek, even while promising to retaliate to tariffs if necessary. More aggressive leadership has been assumed by a Trump-like, Old Testament, eye-for-an-eye politician, Ontario Premier Doug Ford. He has said that if Trump imposes sweeping tariffs, his province will suspend electricity exports to several northern states and block American alcohol sales to the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, the world’s largest alcohol purchaser.
Trump was at it again on Tuesday evening, saying “many” Canadians want Canada to become the 51st state because they would save on taxes. “I think it’s a great idea,” he said. His former security adviser John Bolton told the CBC that Canadians shouldn’t over-intellectualize the tweets. “I think he’s just mean” and is trying to humiliate Trudeau, Bolton said.
From Canada’s point of view, the most encouraging thing about the social media post Trump made after Freeland’s resignation was his mention that there may be a deal to be had. The president-elect has made clear his belief in tariffs, what he calls “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”
He believes that the US is “subsidizing” Canada because it has a trade deficit that is largely the result of oil prices that have doubled in the past four years (60% of US crude imports come from north of the border). But the president-elect can’t ignore the belief held by two-thirds of Americans that his tariff plan will add to the rising cost of living.
Trump’s other concern is over porous borders in the north and south that are leaking migrants and fentanyl. However, as Canada’s ambassador in Washington, Kristen Hillman, pointed out, the 24,000 illegal migrants and 43 pounds of fentanyl intercepted at the northern border represent 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, of the totals. Ottawa allocated an additional US$900 million for a “comprehensive” border security package in Monday’s fiscal update.
Canada has also indicated its willingness to be deputized in the trade war against China. The federal government said it will bring in more tariffs on Chinese solar products, critical minerals, semiconductors, and natural graphite, having already imposed 100% duties on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% levy on steel and aluminum.
But it may be down to Ford and other provincial premiers like Alberta’s Danielle Smith to secure exemptions from the blanket tariffs Trump has promised.
It looks very likely that around the time Trump takes office, the ruling Liberal Party will be either embroiled in a messy leadership race or fighting a general election. In that case, the odds are that Trudeau, if he is still on the scene, will be too distracted to be an effective captain of Team Canada.
A Canada Post mailbox is seen in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, in November 2024.
Hard Numbers: US mail to Canada stops, Border apprehensions fall, Foreign students face Canadian exits, Climbing team missing
55,000: Santa’s sleigh may struggle to go north this year. A strike by some 55,000 Canada Post employees has led the US Postal Service to alert customers that it will not be able to deliver to Canadian addresses for the foreseeable future. Just ahead of the holiday season, the service stoppage is likely to cause headaches to cross-border families trying to exchange gifts.
700: The US border patrol said its agents on the Canadian border had apprehended about 700 migrants crossing illegally into the US in November, down from 1,300 in October. Crossings are down on the southern border too, with 47,000 apprehensions in November, the lowest figure since July 2020.
766,000: Some 766,000 foreigners in Canada hold student permits that are set to expire by the end of 2025. While some permits will be renewed, many of the foreign students will likely have to leave Canada amid the country’s rising economic and housing concerns. The most affected country? India, whose young people make up the majority of foreign pupils in the Great White North.
3: Three climbers, two Americans and one Canadian, went missing on Monday while attempting to scale New Zealand’s highest peak, Mount Cook (also known as Aoraki). Bad weather has stymied search efforts, and New Zealand authorities say they have “grave concerns.”Rebel forces seized Mengh Airbase and the city of Tel Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside on December 1, 2024, following clashes with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian regime forces.
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position on the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theatre where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies… Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
Putin's strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump's return
Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they're now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.
In other words, what we're seeing from Putin is, "I'm showing you what you're doing is moving towards World War III, and that's how I'm responding." Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn't doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He's certainly not doing it now that he's winning.
And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he's getting from other countries. Also, he's taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, "I want to end this war." And he is coming in just in a couple of months.
So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He's instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He's making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, "I'm the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I'm the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am." Putin is facilitating that.
Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin's made clear, at least thus far, that he's not going to give up any territory that he has. That he's not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He's also said that Ukraine can't continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
The devil's going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He's promised he's going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they're not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would've been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.
Still, if you are Putin, there is an open question. You're taking land right now. The Ukrainians don't have the people to continue to put up a strong defense. Why wouldn't you delay this out for another three, another six months? Take more land. Try to get all the territory that you have formally annexed over the course of the war. Why not settle the war on your terms? A lot easier to do if you're winning than losing. And the question there will be to what extent Trump is willing to cause material punishment to Putin if he doesn't say yes.
And that's an open question. Trump historically has been willing to take easy wins that don't necessarily play well over the long term. Look at Afghanistan. He wanted to get the Americans out. He cut a deal with the Taliban. It was a deal that was clearly very advantageous from a military and from a governance perspective for the Taliban than it was for the United States. He cut that despite the fact that the allies were not supportive or coordinating. That undermined the US deeply. Biden then continued with that plan. And it was one of the biggest losses that the US has experienced over the last four years.
Now, that of course, was a loss that ultimately fell on Biden. This would be a loss that would ultimately fall on Trump. And so does he want to risk that? That's a very interesting question. And of course, you also have to look at Trump's staff because he can make a phone call with Zelensky and with Putin, but ultimately, it is the secretary of state, the national security advisor and others that are going to have to work out the details of that agreement. And those people, at least thus far, are not people that are oriented towards giving away the store to Putin. They're people-oriented towards mistrust of Putin, towards a hard line against the Russians, towards support of Ukraine.
I am thinking here that number one, there's a reasonably high chance that Trump can get the win that he wants, but number two, this isn't likely to be a walk in the park for the Russian president. The Europeans need to play here as well. And what will be important, there's been a few formulated conversations thus far between President-elect Trump and some of the European leaders.
They haven't gone very far, but they've also not blown up the bilateral relationships. Their ability to work with Trump advisors on Trump, and on a greater coordination of what an ultimate solution or settlement of the Russian-Ukraine war would be, will make a dramatic difference as to what extent this is sustainable. To what extent this leads to not only Ukraine that can continue to defend itself and the territory that it is left with, but also can integrate into Europe, can be politically successful as a democracy over time. And that NATO will stay strong and stay together and stay aligned with the United States because they don't have another choice. There is no autonomous European military capacity. It's either NATO sticks together or it fragments.
Those are all things that we're going to watch very carefully over the course of the next couple months. But for now, an escalatory period. And it's all performative and it's all oriented towards what happens when Trump becomes president. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Protesters gather at the venue of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, dubbed COP29, in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 16, 2024, calling for developed countries to take responsibility for the greenhouse gasses they have emitted.
Developing nations decry climate deal at COP29
Aftermarathon sessions and deep divisions, COP29 concluded in Baku, Azerbaijan, with a commitment of $300 billion in annual assistance by 2035 to help poorer nations cope with climate change. That’s up from today’s pledges of $100 billion a year. Twenty-three contributors will kick in the funds, including the UK, US, Japan, and countries in the EU. Recipients include countries in Africa and South America, as well as a host of small island states.
While some delegates applauded the deal, many developing nations branded it a “betrayal.” Indian delegate Chandni Raina called it “an optical illusion.” “This will not address the enormity of the challenge,” she said. Meanwhile, low-lying nations like the Marshall Islands acknowledged that the deal is a “start” but ultimately insufficient.
While the agreement also lays groundwork for next year’s COP30 in Brazil, big questions remain. Will wealthy nations deliver on their pledges? How will the funds be divided? What can developing nations do if it isn’t enough?
The urgency is real. 2024 is expected to be the hottest year ever (the second record year in a row), with global emissions still rising. The world is currently on track for temperature increases of up to 3.1 C (5.6 F) by the end of the century, according to the 2024 UN Emissions Gap report.President Joe Biden, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, and Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba participate in a trilateral meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024.
Japan, US, South Korea unite against North Korea-Russia Pact
The next day, Japan’s foreign minister, Takeshi Iwaya, met his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha, in Kyiv, to reaffirm Tokyo’s support for Ukraine and discuss further sanctions against Russia. Sybiha accused Pyongyang of feeding Moscow’s war machine in exchange for access to Russian military program, including missiles and nuclear weapons. Then on Sunday, Japan announced it will begin holding regular joint exercises with US troops in Australia starting in 2025, as those three countries strengthen their security ties amid growing threats from China.
Hard Numbers: US and Mexico reach water deal, Russia and Ukraine smash drone records, US students look abroad after Trump win, Indonesia’s new president walks non-aligned line, Haiti's interim leader fired
18: After 18 months of talks, the US and Mexico announced on Saturday that they have reached a new water-sharing agreement. The accord revises and makes more flexible a decades-old pact under which Mexico provides water from the Rio Grande to the US Southwest in exchange for water from the Colorado River. The breakthrough comes amid growing concerns about water scarcity on both sides of the border. (For more on the complicated (geo)politics of the Colorado River, see our report here).
84 and 145: Russia and Ukraine each launched their largest drone attacks ever against the other side this weekend. Moscow said it intercepted at least 84 Ukrainian drones, at least 34 of which were aimed at the capital city itself, while Kyiv said Russia had launched at least 145 unmanned craft of its own. Both sides said they shot down the majority of the other’s drones. The barrages come as both sides try to game out the impact of Trump 2.0, with the president-elect having pledged to end the war in “24 hours” when he returns to office.
500: The number of US students seeking to study abroad has spiked in the days since Donald Trump won the presidential election. A leading provider of information on foreign education opportunities reported that average inquiries jumped nearly 500% to 11,000 a day since last Tuesday night. College students were one of the few demographics that overwhelmingly supported Kamala Harris, with polls showing more than 70% favoring the vice president.
10 billion: Indonesia’s new president hailed cooperation with China, signing $10 billion in new business and security deals with the country at a forum in Beijing on Sunday. Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and businessman who took office last month, has praised China’s emergence as a “civilizational power” but also said Indonesia would remain “non-aligned.” His first trip abroad as president will take him from Beijing to Washington, DC, and then to South America and the UK.
6: Haiti’s interim Prime Minister Garry Conillewas fired on Sunday after just six months on the job. The country’s transitional council, established to restore democratic order amid increasing gang violence, signed a decree to dismiss Conille, replacing him with businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, the former president of Haiti’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The decree is set to be published on Monday.
Graphic Truth: Foreign-born populations in the US and Canada
The foreign-born populations in the US and Canada have been steadily rising for decades. Both are countries of immigrants, with millions upon millions arriving on their shores from distant lands over the centuries, and this is ingrained into their national identities. But polling shows that in recent years a majority of Americans and Canadians want to see less immigration — including legal immigration.
Politicians have taken notice. President-elect Donald Trump has made curbing immigration a central aspect of his platform and has pledged to conduct mass deportations of undocumented immigrants once he takes office.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also recently took steps to reduce the number of new immigrants coming into Canada. “Immigration is essential for Canada’s future, but it must be controlled and it must be sustainable,” Trudeau said late last month.
Are these trends driven by xenophobia or a product of people feeling financially vulnerable and concerned that more immigrants will place strains on the economy? Or is it both? We would love to hear your thoughts!