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Viewpoint: Is China the only reason the US cares about Africa?
Heads of state and/or government from 49 African countries are currently breaking bread at the US-Africa Leaders Summit at the White House. It’s only the second such summit in history, the last one hosted by President Obama in 2014.
It’s no secret that many African nations have long felt jilted by Uncle Sam. But the Biden administration is trying to cast the conference as a reset in US relations with the world’s fastest-growing continent, announcing a $55 billion investment in Africa over the next three years and a presidential visit next year.
Still, some African experts are skeptical that Washington’s approach to Africa is really changing. To them, it can often seem that Washington is more focused on keeping Beijing – which in recent years has outpaced the US in foreign direct investment to Africa – away from the continent than on creating new opportunities for growth independent of China’s activities there.
To make sense of the Biden administration’s Africa policy, we had a chat with Amaka Anku, Eurasia Group’s lead Africa analyst.
GZERO: A White House official said this week that the US is “the partner of choice” for African states – which was broadly considered to be a dig at China. How is this sort of thing perceived by African leaders?
I don't think it's particularly controversial. I mean, he's a US official – what else is he going to say?
What's more controversial is when they go after China directly and say “the Chinese are using a debt trap” – rhetoric that we saw from former President Trump. A lot of African policy makers really chafed at that. It was very paternalistic. It was very much like “hey, you guys, you must be so stupid” for entering into this sort of arrangement with the Chinese.
Biden hasn’t really done that. His rhetoric has been all great and pretty, but it’s … hollow. So the problem isn't really what they're saying. It's what they're not doing. The Biden administration is saying all the right things but they’re not really doing things differently.
Ok, so what are Africa’s biggest investment needs right now?
Infrastructure in all of its forms. China has put a lot of money into transport infrastructure – roads and rails – which has been very helpful in terms of connectivity and economic growth.
Why isn’t the US government giving more money to Africa then?
Well, it's not important enough. It’s just not a priority. And that’s why a lot of the rhetoric sounds hollow.
But it's not just about the government, because there are two levels to this relationship. There's the government – and China has done well on this front – but it’s also about relationships in the private sector, and the US is substantially a private sector led economy. If the American private sector doesn’t see Africa in terms of economic opportunity then it’s not going to put its money there.
Has Biden’s approach to engaging Africa differed from his predecessors?
Every time the US wants to talk about Africa they always start with value promotion. It’s always about open and liberal societies. But this misses the point. The biggest constraint on mature, competitive, electoral party politics across Africa today is lack of state capacity and low economic outcomes.
So if you look at Biden’s sub-Saharan Africa strategy, the first points are about open and liberal societies, and democratic governance – and then eventually you get to post-pandemic development. That’s where you should start!
Government officials like to bring up “democratic backsliding” because there was a coup in places like Mali or Burkina Faso. But those coups happened because those states could not guarantee security for their citizens. It's not because people want authoritarianism.
What has China’s Africa policy been like?
China doesn't do value promotion. China will come to an African state and say “what do you want?” and then will help them finance it. There are also problems with this approach.
Do African governments feel that they are being used as pawns in the greater China-US rivalry?
African countries don’t feel like Washington is generally interested in the region beyond its China strategy. Biden is trying to pivot away from that, saying his strategy is solely about the relationship with Africa. But there’s still a broad feeling that the US only cares about projecting its values and influence.
To be fair, every country’s foreign policy is about projecting values and interests, but it’s about how you do it. And the question for Biden is: Do you think African economic transformation supports that goal? For example, can the US get ahead in its battle with China by having new export markets in Africa? Or is it just going to be about countering Chinese influence here?
So you still think it's the latter?
Yeah, right now it still feels rhetorical. I think they have a lot of work to do to show if it's not.
Biden's Africa Summit won't gain influence for US without investment
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What does Biden hope to achieve from his Africa summit?
Dozens of African leaders in Washington DC, potentially the most stillborn summit the Americans have hosted since the Summit of the Americas, Latin America, in LA months ago, because the United States doesn't have much of a strategy. Certainly want to have more influence given how much the Chinese have been economically locking up so much of the political orientation of these countries. But that means money, and the Americans, this is at the end of the day not the top priority, not even close for the United States, given GDP and given role in the world. So I suspect it's going to be a lot of happy talk. There'll be some political alignment, but it's not going to be a lot of influence.
Why did Putin cancel his annual press conference?
Well, if you were Putin, wouldn't you cancel your annual press conference? I mean, look, they are generally friendlies, and he does control the media, and if you ask something really sharp, that can be it for you and your family. But he doesn't even want the hint of something that may not be scripted. He's been talking about and meeting with, for example, some of the families of the soldiers that are over there, some that have sacrificed, of course, an awful lot, but they've been very carefully vetted. He doesn't want to talk to anyone who's going to be in any way critical, and that's kind of what this annual press conference is like, usually hours long, very voluble. Putin who likes to opine on any topic that is not what you'd be seeing this year, and as a consequence, he's canceling it. It's clearly not a health reason, he's been doing a lot of other public meetings and traveling.
SBF is busted. That's right. At some point he's probably going to end up in jail. What does this mean for crypto exchanges around the world?
Well, it means less investor-friendly regulation for these exchanges. Remember, SBF was giving massive amounts of money to political figures in the United States to ensure that he could capture the regulatory process. That money gone up in smoke, probably have to give it back. And even if they don't, he's not going to have much influence with it from The Bahamas or from prison. And what that means is that a chilling effect on others in the industry. Lots of big questions from major financial institutions as to use-cases for crypto, as opposed to the blockchain, which people are very optimistic about the underlying technology. And again, it means regulations are going to be much more government-oriented, much more citizen protection-oriented, and much less crypto exchange-oriented.
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VP Eva Kaili from Greece at the European Parliament in Brussels.
What We're Watching: EU-Qatar bribery probe, US-Africa talk shop
Did Qatar bribe MEPs?
On Sunday, a Belgian judge charged four people with multiple crimes related to suspected bribery at the EU's legislature by a suspected Gulf nation. (It's Qatar, although, of course, the Qataris deny it.) Among the accused is Greek MEP and European Parliament VP Eva Kaili, who's been arrested and kicked out of the center-left parliamentary group as well as her own Pasok party in Greece. In what is being buzzed about as one of the chamber's biggest-ever corruption scandals, prosecutors suspect that the Gulf state tried to influence European Parliament decisions by giving money and gifts to MEPs. The bombshell probe comes just as Qatar is in the global spotlight over the FIFA World Cup, which many suspect the emirate paid bribes to host. Notably, just last month Kaili defended Qatar's human rights record, giving it credit for abolishing the kafala system that treats migrant workers as modern-day slaves. While the investigation is ongoing, the legislature has already suspended an upcoming vote on visa-free travel to the EU by Qatari nationals, and Greece announced Monday that it's freezing Kaili's assets.
Can Africa trust America?
US President Joe Biden is hosting dozens of African heads of state and government at the White House for the three-day US-Africa Leaders Summit that kicks off on Tuesday. His pitch: You can trust us more than China or Russia, which for years have been making inroads in Africa at the expense of America. But it won't be easy. The US will need to work hard to regain that trust, perhaps by offering African nations something more substantial — and generous in economic terms — than a permanent seat at the G-20 for the African Union. Indeed, much of the continent is reliant on trade with China and has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine — despite Africa's food systems having been hit particularly hard by the war between the Sunflower Superpowers. Biden didn't send an RSVP to four countries suspended from AU membership over coups — or to gulag state Eritrea. But since he did welcome Equatorial Guinea and Zimbabwe, hardly beacons of democracy on the continent, the guest list seems as random as the one for Biden’s doozy of a democracy summit a year ago.Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni walk during their meeting in Entebbe.
Russia and the West battle it out in Africa
Russia’s brutal military offensive may be taking place in Europe, but the battle to shore up support for its cause is now playing out in … Africa.
Russia’s top diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, is currently on a tour to reassure African allies of Moscow’s commitment to alleviating the global food crisis.
But Lavrov is not to be outdone by French President Emmanuel Macron, who is also on a three-nation tour in Central and West Africa. Washington, meanwhile, has sent an envoy to Ethiopia and Egypt.
Russia, the EU, and US have long tried to court developing countries in bids to expand their respective spheres of influence. But as war rages on in Europe, why the intense focus on Africa now?
Who’s going where?
Lavrov started his African tour in Egypt, where he sought to assure a jittery President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that Russia is taking the global grain shortage seriously. (Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer.) Russia’s top diplomat doubled down on the Kremlin’s talking point that a Western-backed Ukraine is responsible for the blockade in the Black Sea that’s pummeling import-reliant Cairo. (The Egyptians, who have strong security ties with the US but rely on Russia for grain, have so far refused to pick a side in the war.)
This week's itinerary for Lavrov also had stops in Uganda, the Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia. The latter could be a tougher sell because Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is seeking a rapprochement with the US after Washington imposed sanctions on Ethiopian officials over the brutal war in Tigray.
The French president is visiting Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau, and Benin to reiterate France’s postcolonial commitment to African prosperity and security. Food supply issues will be on the agenda, too.
Meanwhile, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa is holding a series of talks in Ethiopia and Egypt to discuss the ongoing Grand Ethiopian Dam dispute that has pitted Addis Ababa against Khartoum and Cairo. Washington says it will also discuss ways to mitigate the global food crisis.
Why Africa?
Moscow has been boosting its investment in African countries for years to gain a strategic foothold on a continent where it once yielded great influence during the Cold War. As part of this effort, it’s been sending mercenaries to support counterinsurgencies in West Africa and Libya, and flooding some African states with weapons.
What does Russia get out of it? Metals, diamonds, gold, and other commodities. Indeed, Russia has been leveraging relations with weak and corrupt African governments to secure lucrative mining deals. (Moscow uses some of the metals it extracts to make weapons that it then sells … back to Africa.) What’s more, Russia’s trade with African states has doubled since 2015 to around $20 billion a year, and it has signed arms deals with more than 20 African states.
Crucially, while the European Union remains Africa’s largest trade partner, many African countries have long resented the bloc’s strings-attached approach to cooperation. (The EU, for instance, has previously conditioned aid and investment on Africa cracking down on migration to the bloc.)
The war in Ukraine is also being waged on the diplomatic front. Though its enforcement powers are limited, the United Nations is a powerful arbiter of international norms, and the 55-member African Union is the largest voting bloc in the UN. Indeed, it was a boon for the Kremlin that 17 African states refrained from taking a side when Russia’s aggression in Ukraine came up for a vote at the UN in March.
The view from Africa. For many African states, relations with Russia offer an appealing alternative to China, the EU, and the US, which have historically had the resources to make inroads throughout the continent.
Beijing, for its part, has promised Africa prosperity and innovation … but in the process saddled dozens of African countries with debt. And though many states – particularly in sub-Saharan Africa – rely on Western aid, they also have come to resent Europe’s imperialist legacy and Washington’s preachiness on human rights.
Russia, on the other hand, has managed to foster a lot of goodwill among numerous African states by not lecturing them about human rights or burdening them with shady loans. Indeed, some African states believe Russia is cultivating a partnership of equals.
Still, Eurasia Group Africa expert Tochi Eni-Kalu says that although the Russians have had some success with their recent diplomatic outreach, there are limits to how far this will take them.
“Russia has few dependable allies in Africa,” he says, adding that “most African states would detest the idea of being seen as being too close to Russia, even if their nonaligned orientation might see them vote in line with Russia (or abstain) on certain resolutions.” Plainly, they don’t see themselves as having to make a binary choice between Russia and the West.
To be sure, Putin knows Russia is no match for Beijing’s financial prowess or Washington’s military might.
“Though Russia is a key arms exporter to numerous African states, the Kremlin lacks the resources that the US, EU, or China can draw on in negotiating political concessions on the global stage,” Eni-Kalu says, noting that this is especially true for Africa's biggest economies.
So what’s Russia trying to do then? As we’ve written before, Moscow is seeking “discrete pressure points where, with minimal expenditure, it can win friends and influence people in ways that directly benefit the Russian state or affiliated cronies.”
After years of deprioritizing the continent, the US is (sort of) interested again. The Biden administration recently announced that it will host more than 50 African leaders at a US-Africa summit this December. The event, according to the White House, will focus on deepening economic engagement and tackling the global food crisis. Washington has also doled out cash to help the continent weather the food crisis.
Still, “Western engagement with Africa has been more rhetoric than action for several years now,” Eni-Kalu says, noting that there is little indication that the current geopolitical situation will result in any new concrete commitments from the West.