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President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 16, 2024.
China says no to AI-powered nukes
In a 90-minute meeting on the sidelines of the APEC conference in Lima, Peru, on Saturday, the two world leaders hashed out the agreement after months of reported resistance from China to engage at all in nuclear arms talks.
In a national security memo last month, the Biden administration explicitly prohibited the use of AI to skirt existing protocols around launching nuclear weapons. But China had resisted making a public declaration until now.
The two countries are locked in a race to build up their respective AI capabilities — and that’s deeply intertwined with their military ambitions. The US, which has a technological edge due to having the largest global chip designers and AI software companies, has enacted strict export controls to keep this technology out of China’s hands. With the Trump administration coming to power in January, it’s unclear how Washington’s China policy will change, though it is expected to be similarly aggressive.
Global leaders scramble to align with Trump
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. A lot more information about where the Trump administration is going in terms of the appointees that they're making and also, the responses that we see from leaders around the world. Maybe focus a little on the global, because if you think that Republicans who privately don't really like Trump are publicly all lining up and saying, "This is God's gift," you've seen nothing compared to what you're going to see from allies of the United States all over the world who know that they get crosswise with the president-elect at their own peril. He is a lot more powerful, and his country is a lot more powerful than their own. We've already seen that with Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel saying that an upcoming Lebanon ceasefire would be a gift to the president-elect. We've seen Zelenskyy in Ukraine saying, "Great meetings, great phone calls."
Of course, the war is going to be over faster with the policies of the incoming president-elect. We're seeing all sorts of outreach from individual European leaders, Asian leaders saying, "We can't wait to find a way to work with this guy. Congratulations. Please don't tariff us. Please don't cause any problems for our country." So, I do think we're going to see a lot of wins in the near term from countries all around the world because the alternative is problematic. And when you look at the G7, the G20, NATO, it is different from last time around in a few ways. First of all, that you now have a number of countries that are ideologically aligned with Trump, and there's going to be more in the near term. I mean, Giorgia Meloni, who is the most popular of G7 leaders, assertively, is someone who sees herself much closer to Trump's worldview in terms of immigration policy, social policy, even to a degree economic policy. And that is going to make him feel much more comfortable when he's sitting at those summits. That wasn't the case first G7 Summit he attended last time around.
Canada, still Justin Trudeau, but won't be for long and soon Canada's going to be Pierre Poilievre who runs the Conservative Party and is absolutely much more aligned with Trump and be a very close friend of the US President-elect when he becomes Prime Minister of Canada. Of course, you've got the Gulf states on board with Trump. You've got the Israelis much more aligned with him than otherwise. The South Korean leader, President Yoon, a conservative, taking up golf again so that he'll be able to play with Trump effectively and wants to be the new Shinzo Abe from Asia in terms of being able to maintain stable relations. That's one reason. The second reason is that there's a lot more at stake. The world is much more dangerous. Getting Trump wrong is a lot more costly when you've got a major war going on in Europe, a major war going on in the Middle East, when the US-China relations are in a worse place, but China's under much more economic pressure at home than they were before. So getting it wrong is trouble.
And so already seeing outreach from the Chinese to the United States saying, "Look, here are some things that might be the beginnings of a deal. We could buy more US treasuries. We could maybe organize a Ukraine conference. We could buy a bunch more American goods. What do we need to do? What do we need to do?" So I'm not saying it's going to go well, but clearly there is more such orientation. And then you have the fact that Trump is more powerful at home in the United States. He has the House, he has the Senate, and he's creating far more loyalists around him as opposed to adults that are more independent in his own cabinet. Which means that if you are a foreign leader, your ability to work around Trump with other parts of the US political firmament is very constrained. And all of that implies that whatever it is that Trump decides he wants to do going forward is going to be what other leaders are going to have to engage with and align with.
There are big problems from a Trump administration coming in. He's not interested in multilateralism. He doesn't want a strong European Union. He's prepared to end the Russia-Ukraine war, even at terms that are problematic for the Ukrainians. Has very little interest in promoting rule of law or democracy internationally. In fact, one of the most interesting things about Trump and the United States for right now is that for almost half a century, the US has been trying to get the Chinese to orient more towards an American worldview. This is what the idea of responsible stakeholdership was, that China was meant to play more of a leadership role in US-led multilateral institutions, promote US-led rule of law and values on the global stage, and become more aligned with the Americans and its allies over time as it got wealthier. Turns out China hasn't done that, but America has. The United States is becoming more like China on the global stage, much more transactional in their foreign policy, indifferent to the values of other countries or the political systems and economic system of other countries on the global stage.
Certainly not interested in the global promotion of democracy or even rule of law, and rather bilateral relations between the US and other countries where the US is more powerful to get the outcomes that they want. Exactly the way that Chinese engage globally. It has been successful for China in many places because they're more powerful than most of the other countries they deal with except the Americans. They've had challenges in Southeast Asia, for example, because the US has led a more multilateral approach on things like the South China Sea. Doubt you're going to see as much of that under Trump. So a very dramatic change in how we think about the world, and we'll be watching very closely as Trump continues to fill out his cabinet and starts talking much more with global leaders on the global stage.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
CISA chief warns of rise of disinformation, election meddling after Nov 5
After January 6, 2021, what once was just a formality became a high-stakes period. Jen Easterly, the nation's top election security official, fears that the real threat to American democracy and stability may come during that crucial period between when votes are cast on Nov 5 and when they're certified, on January 6. "My concern, Ian, is that between November 5th and January 6th—when the Congress is going to certify the vote—our foreign adversaries are going to go hog wild." Easterly, the Director of the Center for Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, spoke with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Watch full episode: Top threats to US election security
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Podcast: The State of the World in 2024 with Ian Bremmer
Listen: The world is grappling with intense political and humanitarian challenges—raging wars, surging nationalism, and a warming climate, to name a few. Yet, we also stand at the brinkof some of the most transformative opportunities in human history. So how do we make sense of the future and what’s next? Ian Bremmer breaks it all down in a special edition of the GZERO World Podcast: The 2024 State of the World.
Each year, Ian examines the biggest political moments (and movements) and shares an honest assessment of where we are… and where we’re going. Most worrying? Leadership, or rather, the glaring lack of it. Nowhere is this clearer than in ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, where everyone claims to want peace, but no one is both willing and able to make it happen. But it’s not all bleak.There are plenty of reasons for optimism. Ian Bremmer discusses the good, the bad, and where we all go from here in his 2024 State of the World, delivered live at the GZERO Summit in Tokyo, Japan.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ian Bremmer: AI and clean energy are reshaping the US-China rivalry
As these technological races accelerate, it remains clear that the US and China will continue to shape the future in distinct and often opposing ways, leaving other nations to navigate the complex terrain between these global giants.
Click to watch Ian Bremmer’s analysis and his full 2024 "State of the World" speech.
The new space race: Sen. Mark Kelly on China's bold ambitions, America's policy & Russian threat
Listen: On this episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer takes a close look at the evolving US-China space race and its implications for global security, competition, and international collaboration. He is joined by Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former Navy pilot and NASA astronaut who offers firsthand insights into the future of US space policy.
Kelly also sheds light on China's ambitious space goals, including lunar missions and partnerships with Russia, raising concerns about the militarization of space. He emphasizes the need for the US to counter these developments and maintain space as a peaceful domain. Kelly discusses the eventual decommissioning of the International Space Station and highlights the importance of collaboration with allies like Europe, Canada, and Japan. The episode also covers the growing role of private companies like SpaceX, which are not only shaping space exploration but also playing crucial roles in geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, through initiatives like Starlink.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ian Explains: Who's winning the US-China space race?
Are we in a 21st-century space race with China? And if so, who’s winning? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down China’s ambitious space program, which in the last few years has sent a rover to Mars, built a space station, and returned samples from the far side of the moon–something no country has done before. By 2035, it plans to build a lunar base with Russia on the moon’s south pole. However, intelligence experts are concerned China’s activity in space is more directly tied to its military than it’s letting on. A 1967 UN treaty bans military activity on the moon but not military activity in space altogether. The final frontier could be the next battleground. Can the US space program, boosted by private space companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin, counter China’s lunar ambitions? Is this the end of the post-Soviet era of international space cooperation? Ian Bremmer breaks down the astronomical stakes of the next era of space exploration.
Look for the full episode, with an interview with former astronaut Senator Mark Kelly on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, airing on US public television (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China August 29, 2024.
Sullivan trip sets up Biden-Xi call
Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a conciliatory tone when he met with US national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday, after three days of talks aimed at managing tensions in the US-China relationship. Sitting in the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square in Beijing, Xi said, “In this changing and turbulent world, countries need solidarity and coordination … not exclusion or regress.” Their meeting was the culmination of efforts to communicate thoroughly over points of potential conflict, including Taiwan, Ukraine, and the South China Sea.
Sullivan also met with the vice chair of China’s Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia,the highest-ranking military official to have sat down with the Biden administration. Zhang accused the US of “collusion” with Taiwan, but the meeting produced an agreement to conduct more bilateral military talks, which it is hoped will help avoid surprises and escalation.
There was one topic Sullivan explicitly said was not discussed: the US election. As we wrote earlier this week, Beijing was thrown for a loop by President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the Democratic ticket and seems to be taking a wait-and-see approach. Both sides agreed to work toward a Biden-Xi phone call in the coming weeks, and Sullivan indicated the White House is ready for a face-to-face meeting at the G20 summit in November as well.