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A global leadership void and ongoing wars
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I am here in Tokyo, Japan. Just got back from Beijing. Being in this part of the world has me thinking a little bit about the state of our world and leadership, or should I say, the lack thereof. Those of you following me know I talk about a G-zero world, not a G-7, not a G-20, a place where we lack global leadership, and that has been so clear, thinking about the wars that continue, between Israel and Palestine, and now Lebanon, and more broadly in the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine, and increasingly NATO in Europe.
I think about the fact that all over the world, everyone wants these wars to be over. They're causing enormous amounts of suffering, displacement of human beings, massive war crimes, but they persist. It's worth thinking about what that means in terms of leadership because when we talk about the Middle East, and Israel-Palestine in particular, the United States is the most powerful ally of Israel, overwhelmingly in terms of its political and diplomatic support, its economic support, technological support, its military aid and training and intelligence. And yet, over the last year, the United States has had virtually no influence in the ability to contain, constrain, or end this war, irrespective of all the suffering.
You can complain about the United States on that with good reason, but then you look at Russia-Ukraine, and you see that over the last three years, China's been, by far, the most powerful friend and supporter of Russia, massive amounts of trade only expanding and dual-use technologies and diplomatic support. Yet, despite that, China has been unwilling to use any influence on Russia to try to bring the war to the end.
Now, to be clear, both the United States and China say all the right things. In Beijing, I was hearing from the leaders that they're friends with the Ukrainians and they maintain stable relations, and of course they want the war over, and they respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. And of course, the Americans support a two-state solution for the Palestinians and want to ensure that they get humanitarian aid and want to see a ceasefire happen, but I mean, the revealed preferences of both of these countries is their willingness to do anything about it is virtually zero. The Chinese don't care about the Ukrainians ultimately. That's what we're learning over the last few years. The Americans don't care about the Palestinians ultimately. That's what we've learned over the last year.
Absent leadership from the two most powerful countries in the world, where do you think we're going to get geopolitically? The answer is, to a much more dangerous place. That's the concern. I don't see that changing, particularly whether we have a Harris or a Trump presidency. I don't see that changing whether we have a Xi or a Xi presidency in China. It's not like they're making any real choices going forward. But look, maybe I'll be surprised. And certainly, it would be nice if no matter who wins, this was a topic of conversation between the Americans and the Chinese. That, "Hey, China. If you'd be willing to do a little bit more with Russia, we'd be willing to do a little bit more with Israel." I mean, frankly, at the end of the day, that's the kind of horse-trading I think we could really use diplomatically. Right now, that's a conversation that hasn't happened yet, but maybe it will.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.
A BYD EV Dolphin Mini is displayed as the Chinese electric-vehicle producer announces the launch of the low-cost EV in Mexico City, Mexico, on Feb. 28, 2024.
Biden wants to ban Chinese software from American roads
The measure is framed as a national security move: Washington is worried that Chinese software in EVs could enable Beijing to suck up data on US drivers and critical infrastructure or to manipulate vehicles on the road.
But it’s also a trade move: Retrofitting Chinese vehicles with approved tech would be impractical, so the proposal would effectively ban Chinese-made EVs altogether. So far, there are very few on American roads, but US industry is worried about competition from Beijing, which has already made huge inroads in Europe, stoking trade tensions there.
Last month, Washington slapped a 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs and components.
What happens now? A 30-day public review period will be followed by the Commerce Department writing up the final text, hoping to have it implemented by the White House before Biden leaves office.
The shortcut: The economic and technology competition between the US and China is increasingly blurring the lines between national security and commerce.
Mark Kelly on the new space race
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer delves into the modern space race and its role as a critical domain for global security with Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly. They discuss China’s growing ambitions, the future of the International Space Station, and the evolving role of private companies like SpaceX in shaping US space policy.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Kelly is clear-eyed about China’s ambitious space goals, including lunar missions and collaboration with Russia to build a lunar base, sparking concerns over the militarization of space. “They [China] just returned a sample from the backside of the moon. Nobody’s done that.” Senator Kelly also discusses the International Space Station’s eventual decommissioning and the importance of international cooperation, particularly with allies such as Europe, Canada, and Japan. Yet, tensions, especially with adversaries like China and Russia, loom large in the space domain.
“We’ve got to make sure that we can counter their capability, but also… prevent them from using space as a domain in any future conflict,” Kelly tells Bremmer. A key concern is how space assets, such as spy satellites and anti-satellite weapons, could be used in future conflicts. The conversation also touches on private-sector involvement in space, with companies like SpaceX playing pivotal roles in both space exploration and geopolitical issues, including the role of Starlink in the war in Ukraine. “I would hope that US companies… align with us and our values,” Kelly tells Bremmer.
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The new space race: Sen. Mark Kelly on China's bold ambitions, America's policy & Russian threat
Listen: On this episode of the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer takes a close look at the evolving US-China space race and its implications for global security, competition, and international collaboration. He is joined by Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, a former Navy pilot and NASA astronaut who offers firsthand insights into the future of US space policy.
Kelly also sheds light on China's ambitious space goals, including lunar missions and partnerships with Russia, raising concerns about the militarization of space. He emphasizes the need for the US to counter these developments and maintain space as a peaceful domain. Kelly discusses the eventual decommissioning of the International Space Station and highlights the importance of collaboration with allies like Europe, Canada, and Japan. The episode also covers the growing role of private companies like SpaceX, which are not only shaping space exploration but also playing crucial roles in geopolitical conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, through initiatives like Starlink.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.Chinese and U.S. flags flutter outside the building of an American company in Beijing, China, January 21, 2021.
American and Chinese companies set new standards
It’s not every day that companies from the United States and China work together. But on Sept. 6, a new coalition of big tech companies representing both global powers announced that they have joined forces to develop new security standards for large language models.
The companies include China’s Ant Group, Tencent, and Baidu along with US firms Microsoft, Google, and Meta. The effort is part of the World Digital Technology Academy, a Geneva-based group established in 2023 under a United Nations framework. The efforts aim to reduce risks throughout the AI supply chain, such as protecting against data leaks and model tampering.
The collaboration represents a rare collaboration between American and Chinese companies at a time when their respective governments are battling over AI dominance and control while systematically blocking one another’s companies from accessing key technologies. While it’s unlikely that this partnership will ease tensions between the American and Chinese governments, perhaps it’ll help forge a way for future collaboration between their industries.
Political mini crossword: Beijing Briefing
Calling all China nerds! US national security advisor Jake Sullivan is visiting Beijing tomorrow. Do you think you are up to date on the state of US-China affairs? Play this crossword puzzle to prove it.
Biden's Supreme Court reform has zero chance of becoming law
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of all-out war?
Certainly hope not. You made me bet I'd say no. Keep in mind, oil prices haven't moved despite the fact that everyone's talking about all-out war. Certainly the Israeli government and the Israeli defense forces are talking about all-out war after Hezbollah, rocket strikes, which they denied, but clearly did come from them and killed some 11 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Having said that, Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, who is very, very strident in wanting to ensure that the Gaza war continues until Hamas is fully destroyed, has been very cautious about starting a war with a Hezbollah that is far better armed and trained than Hamas is. So on the one hand, they do want to brush Hezbollah back. They want to cause more damage to them. They want to get the Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border so the Israelis can come back to their homes, to their schools. On the other hand, I think the likelihood of all-out war is actually pretty low. And I think that's why oil prices are haven't moved since all this, because markets also don't believe this is coming.
How will the new US military aid pledge to the Philippines affect relations with China?
I think this is an area where both sides, like with Hezbollah, do not want conflict to get worse. Most important to me was the fact that the Philippines and China, behind the scenes broken by the United States, agreed to a mechanism where they would both regularly talk military to military, and where China would not try to stop the Philippines from just getting food and normal supplies to the Scuppered ship on the Scarborough Shoal, the contested Scarborough Shoal. That isn't just a matter of talking about it. There now has been a Philippine military vessel that's gotten through with those supplies, and they were not harassed by the Chinese military. That's a really good step, especially in a context of relationship that has been very tense for quite a long time.
What is the likelihood that Biden's call for Supreme Court reform will lead to any change?
Zero. Literally zero, unless the Democrats, Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate and they take the House, and the filibuster in the Senate is gone. Very low chance of that happening. If that were to happen, then I think you absolutely would see Supreme Court reform. And that would change the nature of the checks and balances in the US political system.
By the way, I think the filibuster would also be gone if Republicans ran the slate and take the Senate, which is much more likely than the Democrats doing so. Either way, what we're seeing are political norms and institutions continuing to erode. But what Biden is doing right now with the Supreme Court reform is understood to be purely for campaign purposes and has zero chance of coming into law.
FILE PHOTO: Philippine Marines fold a Philippine national flag during a flag retreat at the BRP Sierra Madre, a marooned transport ship in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, part of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, March 29, 2014.
Philippines successfully conducts resupply through disputed sea under new deal
On Saturday, Filipino vessels carried food and supplies to the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed atoll in the South China Sea that has been the source of severely strained relations with Beijing in recent months. Manila deliberately beached a ship called the Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1997 to effectively control it and now must regularly resupply Marines based there.
The mission represents an early success for the recently signed deal between China and the Philippines intended to cool temperatures in the region and preserve the status quo through better coordination and communication.
Manila and Beijing’s coastguards reportedly communicated about the mission in advance, and Chinese ships did not shadow or intercept the Filipinos as in past attempted resupply missions.
While details about the deal have not been made public, both sides passed the first test with flying colors. Confrontations between Manila and Beijing had been posing a serious risk of escalation – and such encounters could spiral quickly given the longstanding mutual defense treaty between the US and the Philippines.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken applauded the peaceful coordination and said the US “[expects] to see that it continues going forward.”