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Will America's global retreat open new doors for Beijing? Insights from Bill Bishop
Listen: In seven short weeks, the Trump administration has completely reshaped US foreign policy and upended trade alliances. Will China benefit from US retrenchment and increasing global uncertainty, or will its struggling economy hold it back? On the GZERO World Podcast, Bill Bishop, a China analyst and author of the Sinocism newsletter, joins Ian Bremmer for a wide-ranging conversation about China—its domestic priorities, global administration, and whether America’s retreat from global commitments is opening new doors for Beijing.
President Xi Jinping has consolidated power and control in China, but its economy is still dealing with sluggish growth, a property market in crisis, and the specter of deflation. Yet Xi is confident he can bring the People’s Republic into a new era, pushing through major structural reforms, working to transition to a more high-tech economy, and ramping up territorial aggression in the South China Sea. So what’s next for the People’s Republic? Can China shake its economic blues? Has the Trump administration's foreign policy approach created new opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence? Bishop and Bremmer break down China's political and economic landscape.
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What is President Trump's stance on China?
What exactly is President Trump’s view on China? In the first few months of his presidency, Trump has radically reshaped US foreign policy and international relationships. Often, he’s appeared tougher on America’s allies, like the EU, than adversaries, like China and Russia. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down Trump’s complicated views on the People’s Republic, which can be, at times, hard to pin down. Trump had a friendly pre-inauguration call with Chinese President Xi Jinping and often calls him a “brilliant guy.” Yet, in the same breath, he also complains that China “takes advantage” of the US, and his administration says it's pulling back from Europe to focus on security in the Pacific. So where does the US-China relationship go from here? Will Trump cut a deal with Beijing, or will China hawks in Trump’s cabinet, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, convince the president to be more aggressive?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).GZERO World with Ian Bremmer airs on US public television weekly - check local listings.
Is President Trump's Russia pivot a win for China?
Is the Trump administration’s rapid shift in diplomatic relations with Russia and push for a ceasefire deal in Ukraine a win for China? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asked US Senator Elissa Slotkin for her reaction to the 90-minute phone call between President Trump and Vladimir Putin, a move that upended three years of US-led efforts to isolate Russia from the West diplomatically. Slotkin, a former CIA officer, and Pentagon official warned that China is closely watching how the US handles Ukraine, viewing it as a test of America’s resolve that could have major implications for Taiwan and global stability. The Trump administration has made it clear it doesn’t want to play global peacemaker and that Europe needs to step up to maintain its own defenses. With global power dynamics quickly shifting, will America maintain its leadership role or leave a leadership vacuum for China to fill?
“This is a bigger issue than just Russia-Ukraine. The Chinese are watching everything that’s going on here,” Slotkin says, “They’re watching American staying power. They’re trying to understand if America cares about democracies getting invaded or if they’ll roll over eventually.”
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Ian Bremmer: Can the US still lead AI innovation while cutting global ties?
As global AI innovation accelerates, Ian Bremmer unpacks the shifting priorities of world leaders. During a Global Stage livestream at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he highlights the UK’s rebranding of its “AI Safety Summit” to an “AI Action Summit” in 2025, calling it a telling sign of the race to harness AI’s economic potential.
"There is enormous effort by every actor that's touching AI right now to try to ensure competitiveness, try to ensure productivity, try to take advantage of these tools and set them to work," he says. "Everyone agrees with that."
However, Ian flags a contradiction in the US approach: while Donald Trump’s administration is doubling down on innovation, its simultaneous withdrawal from global agreements like the Paris Accord and the WHO poses challenges. “What is a world going to look like when the country that is doing the most to try to ensure that it is driving that innovation is also at the same time withdrawing from global responsibilities and architecture that it created, which we've never seen before?” he asks. Bremmer warns that this duality could hinder efforts to scale AI’s benefits equitably, especially for developing nations.
This conversation, moderated by Becky Anderson, was part of the Global Stage series at the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, presented by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
Click to watch the full discussion for our panel's insights on AI's future and how it is expected to transform our economy and society by 2030.
Marco Rubio speaks after he is sworn in as Secretary of State by U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, on Jan. 21, 2025.
Tough talk on Taiwan
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clashed with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in their first phone call on Friday over the independence of Taiwan, according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce. During the conversation, Wang reaffirmed China’s position that the island nation is part of China and reportedly told Rubio “I hope you will act accordingly,” a Chinese phrase usually employed by a superior warning a student or employee to behave and act responsibly. Rubio has previously called Beijing the top US threat and was twice sanctioned by China in 2020.
And Rubio may have more wars of words with Wang in the future. China is reportedly ramping up efforts to encourage the independence movement on the Japanese island of Okinawa, which hosts 70% of US bases in the region – and is a mere 466 miles from Taiwan.
Chinese state media frequently highlights US military crimes in Okinawa, and Chinese social media propaganda claims most Okinawans favor independence. A poll published in May 2022 showed that only 3% of residents favored full independence, although 48% supported greater autonomy through a federal arrangement with Tokyo.
Reports suggest Beijing also tried but failed to establish an underground police station in Okinawa and plans to establish a Ryukyu Research Centre to remind locals of the island’s status as a former independent empire until it was annexed by Japan in 1609. Beijing has also been conducting a “charm offensive,” stressing Okinawa’s cultural ties to China – and strengthening its claim to the island.Biden tightens China’s access to chips one last time
Throughout Joe Biden’s presidency, the Commerce Department has gradually tightened its chokehold on China’s access to semiconductors needed to access, train, and build artificial intelligence. On Dec. 2, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced what she told reporters amounted to the “strongest controls ever” meant to restrict China’s access to AI for military applications. Today, China responded with its own new restrictions, sending a strong signal to the incoming US president.
The new US controls announced Monday, the third order in as many years, apply to 24 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, three types of software tools, and high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, an interface often used in producing AI chips. The department also added 140 Chinese companies to its Entity List, which requires regulatory approval should a US company wish to sell to a member of the list. “By adding key semiconductor fabrication facilities, equipment manufacturers, and investment companies to the Entity List, we are directly impeding the PRC’s military modernization, WMD programs, and ability to repress human rights,” said Matthew Axelrod, assistant secretary for export enforcement at the Commerce Department.
In response, on Dec. 3, China banned shipments of certain materials using gallium, germanium, and antimony to the US, as well as super-hard materials such as diamonds. These items can be used both for military and semiconductor applications. “China firmly opposes the US overstretching the concept of national security, abuse of export control measures, and illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction against Chinese companies,” said Lin Jian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson.
Jacob Feldgoise, an analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, said the new US order plugged holes in the previous year’s rules. It requires a license for many more exported tools, focuses on high-bandwidth memory “because HBM is used by nearly all of the most capable AI chips” and strengthens the US’s grasp beyond its borders. “Notably, this set of controls is newly extraterritorial: It will impose licensing requirements on certain foreign-produced tools so long as they contain US technology,” Feldgoise said.
Xiaomeng Lu, director of Eurasia Group's geo-technology practice, noted that the US excluded the Chinese semiconductor company ChangXin Memory Technologies from the Entity List to appease the Japanese government. CXMT has been buying materials from Japanese suppliers to make its memory chips. “With the Trump administration on its way, they are expected to take a more unilateral approach and will be less likely to make concessions per requests of allies,” she said.
Jeremy Mark, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, said it’s difficult to judge how significant these new rules are because of the looming change of guard in the White House. Had they come ahead of the transition to a Kamala Harris administration, “they would continue making life complicated for Chinese semiconductor companies and US companies that rely on the China market for a significant portion of their sales.” However, Mark said that Donald Trump could strengthen or weaken export controls when he takes office, so it’s “impossible to say” what the legacy of this final move will be.
For Biden, it marks the end of an era of success: While his restrictions on China could have been tighter or less porous, he leaves office with China still searching for AI breakthroughs. The US, at least under Biden’s watch, is still on top.
But China’s next-day retaliation shows that it is ready to play hardball ahead of the incoming Trump administration. Beijing understands that diplomacy alone might not do the trick, and that to succeed in getting America to the bargaining table it needs to safeguard its own crucial resources. “This is a step up in China’s reaction to US technology sanctions,” Lu said. “China is very frustrated with the lack of communication channels with the incoming administration. They are trying to send a shot across the bow to get attention from the Trump team.”
Ian Bremmer: AI and clean energy are reshaping the US-China rivalry
As these technological races accelerate, it remains clear that the US and China will continue to shape the future in distinct and often opposing ways, leaving other nations to navigate the complex terrain between these global giants.
Click to watch Ian Bremmer’s analysis and his full 2024 "State of the World" speech.
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A global leadership void and ongoing wars
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I am here in Tokyo, Japan. Just got back from Beijing. Being in this part of the world has me thinking a little bit about the state of our world and leadership, or should I say, the lack thereof. Those of you following me know I talk about a G-zero world, not a G-7, not a G-20, a place where we lack global leadership, and that has been so clear, thinking about the wars that continue, between Israel and Palestine, and now Lebanon, and more broadly in the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine, and increasingly NATO in Europe.
I think about the fact that all over the world, everyone wants these wars to be over. They're causing enormous amounts of suffering, displacement of human beings, massive war crimes, but they persist. It's worth thinking about what that means in terms of leadership because when we talk about the Middle East, and Israel-Palestine in particular, the United States is the most powerful ally of Israel, overwhelmingly in terms of its political and diplomatic support, its economic support, technological support, its military aid and training and intelligence. And yet, over the last year, the United States has had virtually no influence in the ability to contain, constrain, or end this war, irrespective of all the suffering.
You can complain about the United States on that with good reason, but then you look at Russia-Ukraine, and you see that over the last three years, China's been, by far, the most powerful friend and supporter of Russia, massive amounts of trade only expanding and dual-use technologies and diplomatic support. Yet, despite that, China has been unwilling to use any influence on Russia to try to bring the war to the end.
Now, to be clear, both the United States and China say all the right things. In Beijing, I was hearing from the leaders that they're friends with the Ukrainians and they maintain stable relations, and of course they want the war over, and they respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. And of course, the Americans support a two-state solution for the Palestinians and want to ensure that they get humanitarian aid and want to see a ceasefire happen, but I mean, the revealed preferences of both of these countries is their willingness to do anything about it is virtually zero. The Chinese don't care about the Ukrainians ultimately. That's what we're learning over the last few years. The Americans don't care about the Palestinians ultimately. That's what we've learned over the last year.
Absent leadership from the two most powerful countries in the world, where do you think we're going to get geopolitically? The answer is, to a much more dangerous place. That's the concern. I don't see that changing, particularly whether we have a Harris or a Trump presidency. I don't see that changing whether we have a Xi or a Xi presidency in China. It's not like they're making any real choices going forward. But look, maybe I'll be surprised. And certainly, it would be nice if no matter who wins, this was a topic of conversation between the Americans and the Chinese. That, "Hey, China. If you'd be willing to do a little bit more with Russia, we'd be willing to do a little bit more with Israel." I mean, frankly, at the end of the day, that's the kind of horse-trading I think we could really use diplomatically. Right now, that's a conversation that hasn't happened yet, but maybe it will.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.