Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Boris Johnson is going to be out, one way or the other
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60:
First, will Boris Johnson step down?
I certainly think it is getting likely. He's going to be out, one way or the other. The question is, is it as a result of a second in one month no-confidence vote that he loses this time around, or he reads the writing on the wall, knows he's going to get voted out and so decides to resign himself. If you made me bet, I think he's going to resign, but he might well just force them to do it. He's lost… a majority of conservative voters in the United Kingdom now want Boris Johnson to step down. He's had scandal after scandal after scandal, lied, been caught lying about so many of those scandals, and it's just a disaster, frankly. While the economy's doing badly, while Brexit has not played out the way he said it would, this is a man that has well passed his sell-by date and I don't expect he will be there as prime minister for much longer.
Secondly, with Beijing rolling out China's first vaccine mandate, how soon will China ease its lockdowns?
Not soon enough. This is a big mistake for the Chinese. They're the one country in the world, of course, that had no problem, at scale, doing lockdowns and surveillance for their population and yet they didn't bother with vaccine mandates, and they should have, especially for older populations, especially for vulnerable populations. This mandate is only in Beijing. It's not hitting restaurants. It's just hitting a bunch of other public venues. It's not hitting public transportation. It will matter for Beijing, but it's not enough. They need to be much more extensive around the country before they're going to be able to start loosening zero-COVID policy. I think we're still looking at early to mid next year at the earliest.
Is the United States the only developed country struggling with mass shootings?
Yeah, nobody else close than the United States, and the US is the only country that has assault type weapons that are so easily accessible in the hands of its population. That is the fundamental policy difference between the United States and Canada, between the US and Australia, between the US and Japan, the US and the Europeans. If you look at all of these different countries, they all have various amounts of mental illness, they have different amounts of economic inequality, they have different amounts of racial challenges than the rest. The United States is the one where you have all of this gun violence. Yes, a lot of the gun violence isn't mass shootings. A lot of it is, frankly, in inner cities. It's poor, it's overwhelmingly Black in the United States, but it's with guns. And if you look at how many people are killed through violence and it's not with guns, it's a tiny fraction of that. And so if you had more effective background checks on who's able to get guns, if you had effective checks on assault weapons, assault type weapons, it would be a very different story in the US. The US is very significantly struggling with it and is doing absolutely nothing to make a difference.
US Senate passes bipartisan gun bill but SCOTUS may loosen gun laws
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective on US politics:
How are the rules on gun ownership changing in the US?
This has been the most consequential week for regulations on gun ownership in the US for many years. In response to two recent high-profile mass shootings in New York and Texas, the Senate this week passed a bipartisan bill that restricts access to gun ownership by preventing people convicted of domestic abuse against a romantic partner from purchasing a firearm. And also increases funding for mental health, school security and incentivizes states to adopt laws that prevent people who are in mental distress from purchasing a gun.
At the same time, the Supreme Court struck down a rule in New York State that requires an applicant to demonstrate a "proper cause" before they will issue a concealed carry permit. The Supreme Court's decision, the first on gun rights in over a decade, has the potential to lead to the overturning of similar laws in other states, expanding the ability for individuals to carry firearms outside their home. Though several justices noted that this decision does not overturn other licensing requirements, such as background checks or firearms training.
The courts were reshaped by President Trump who appointed over 200 judges at the circuit and district court level and put three conservative justices on the Supreme Court who have signaled they are ready to overturn decades of precedent in gun laws, abortion, and business regulation. So, once the House passes this gun bill it will be harder for certain people to purchase guns and this is likely to reduce crime and save lives, but thanks to the Supreme Court, it will be easier for other people in some states to own and carry firearms in public.
The effects on public safety from these two measures are unclear. As Justice Alito pointed out, crimes are frequently committed by people who own guns unlawfully. But politicians in states with large densely packed cities worry that limiting their ability to regulate gun ownership will make it harder to stop gun crimes. There's little evidence to support these claims and in fact, the evidence on the effects of concealed carry permits in crime in either direction is mixed the best. And in the absence of stronger evidence linking these permits to higher crime, the court's rightward turn towards liberalizing gun laws is likely to increase access to gun ownership.