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U.S. President Joe Biden arrives next to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the House of Commons of Canada, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, March 24, 2023.
Immigration: A political minefield for Biden and Trudeau
After an unsuccessful effort to kill two birds with one stone, President Joe Biden is stoneless and dead-birdless.
To sweeten his request for more aid for Ukraine and Israel, Biden included a request for more funding for security at the Mexico border to appeal to Republicans, who are increasingly reluctant to fund the war in Ukraine and incensed about migrants.
But in tying foreign policy and border security together, Biden opened himself up to demands from the GOP for more consequential changes to his immigration policy. Republicans blocked Biden’s emergency spending bill to provide $50 billion to Ukraine and $14 billion to Israel, demanding the White House impose policies that would make most migrants ineligible for asylum and require them to wait in Mexico until their case is processed.
Biden also opened himself up to backlash from his side of the aisle. Immigration is a divisive and politically vulnerable issue for Democrats heading into 2024. Those on the left feel like Biden used migrants as a bargaining chip, while moderates fear that he has put Israel and Ukraine at risk by including immigration policy in the bill.
The spending fight comes on the heels of Texas enacting a harsh immigration law that would allow the state to take control of border security, a power constitutionally given to the federal government, adding to the appearance that Biden does not have control over his immigration policy.
Across the border, Canada’s PM Justin Trudeau can relate to the perils of linking immigration to other issues. Although Canada is far more welcoming to migrants than the US, support for the statement “there’s too much immigration to Canada,” has jumped 17% over the last year because immigration is being conflated with the housing crisis.
Trudeau’s plan to welcome 500,000 permanent residents each year by 2025 is also under fire from both sides of the aisle, with 67% percent of Canadians polled believing the figure is too high. Those on the right blame migrants for overburdened services and lack of housing, while the left criticizes the lack of funding to adequately support migrants.
In the US, immigration has always been a politically contentious issue, but it's looking like it could be a serious vulnerability for Biden ahead of 2024, especially if his foreign policy agenda is stalled because of it. Meanwhile, immigration is a newly divisive issue for Canada but is shaping up to be a key issue for the 2025 election.
Texas Governor Gregg Abbott speaks during a news conference near the International Bridge between Mexico and the U.S
Texas takes immigration into its own hands
Critics argue that the law could lead to racial profiling and wrongful arrests of US citizens and legal immigrants. Legal experts are questioning the law's constitutionality, as immigration laws can only be enforced by the federal government. Meanwhile, the American Civil Liberties Union has already vowed that they will see Gov. Abbott in court.
The law's supporters, however, argue that it is necessary due to perceived inadequacies in federal immigration enforcement. They believe the law will help protect Texans and deter illegal immigration.
Showdown looms: Whatever the stance, it is likely to trigger a high-stakes legal and political clash between the Texas government, civil rights groups, and the Biden administration. It also raises significant questions about the future balance of power between state and federal authorities in immigration enforcement at the southern border.Migrants stand near the border wall after having crossed into the US from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico.
US immigration wars look ahead to 2024 election
It's been a big week for US immigration politics.
First, the Department of Justice late Monday followed through on its threat to sue Texas if Gov. Greg Abbot refused to remove a controversial floating barrier along the Rio Grande. Then, on Tuesday, a federal judge in California struck down the Biden administration's new rules for asylum-seekers (yet also issued a stay and gave the government 14 days to appeal, so the policy remains in place until then).
If you're a Republican — particularly an immigration hawk — you probably think that President Joe Biden is weaponizing the DOJ to stop Texas from keeping undocumented migrants out and that a liberal California judge wants to toss a policy that has helped curb illegal border crossings. But if you're a Democrat, Abbott's wrecking ball-sized buoys are an inhumane gimmick that violates federal laws. And if you're a progressive Dem, Biden making it so hard for people to seek asylum in America is illegal and not the only reason arrivals have plummeted.
The battle lines are drawn ahead of the 2024 election. Although arrivals dropped with the demise of Title 42, expect this to be a major campaign issue since Americans still give the president a very low 32% approval rating on immigration. With Congress gridlocked and the Republican-led House targeting Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Biden hopes to escape a border crisis with his signature sticks-and-carrots approach to immigration: deter migrants from entering illegally but offer them a legal pathway for asylum.Family of Afghan refugees in Concord, California
Where are fleeing Afghans going?
But how do they get there? Most Afghans have taken a flight to Brazil, which offers humanitarian visas for Afghans, before making their way through a host of countries – Panama, Colombia, Nicaragua – and the dangerous Darien Gap, to reach Mexico. The roughly 16,000-mile route is rife with crime, but that hasn’t deterred Afghans from taking the leap.
The numbers are stark. Consider that only 100 Afghans crossed this perilous route from 2010-2019, but that number has jumped to 3,600 since the start of 2022. And while many are apprehended in Mexico or arrested by Colombian or Guatemalan authorities on the way, those who do make it to the US border still face steep challenges to resettlement.
Though roughly 52,000 Afghans have applied for humanitarian parole – a Biden administration policy that allows refugees to work in the US for two years while their asylum claims are being processed – just 760 of these claims have been approved to date.
Indeed, this messy dynamic gets to the heart of Biden’s biggest political pains – the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was the beginning of the end of his approval rating, and the ongoing migration crisis, which is a boon for Republicans ahead of the 2024 presidential race.
Why Chris Christie calls DeSantis "anti-conservative"
The Republican Party is in the midst of an identity crisis. Between the far-right MAGA supporters and more traditional “Never Trump” conservatives, there doesn’t seem to be a coherent through-line for GOP priorities ahead of the 2024 race for US president.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asked rumored 2024 GOP candidate and former governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, what the Republicans’ policy priorities should be as we look ahead to the election. Along with fixing America’s immigration system and shoring up its alliances around the world, Christie argues that Republicans need to become the “fiscally responsible party” once again.
An issue that has received too much attention, Christie says, is the ongoing culture war within the GOP against things like transgender rights and library books, as exemplified by Governor Ron DeSantis’ battle with Disney World over Florida’s “Don’t Say Gay” law. While Christie argues some of those things should be discussed in the context of larger issues, like parental choice in education, he believes using the powers of government to police speech you disagree with is a fundamentally “anti-conservative” position.
“[DeSantis] should have just let it go. But instead he is going to continue to push it and up the ante,” Christie told Ian Bremmer, “I think it’s anti-conservative. I think it’s a mistake.”
Flags of Mexico, United States, and Canada are pictured at a security booth at Zaragoza-Ysleta border crossing bridge in Ciudad Juarez.
US wants Mexico visa restrictions
The US has asked Canada to reintroduce visa requirements for Mexican visitors in an effort to stop the flow of migrants across the northern border. In 2016, Trudeau lifted the visa requirement, which was an irritant in Canadian-Mexican relations. Recently, though, human smugglers have started to use the route for Mexicans who want to enter the United States, taking them on short boat trips from Canada to the US.
US Customs and Border Protection says crossings are on the rise – 1,999 Mexicans were stopped in a six-month period this fiscal year compared to 882 the year before. That’s an increase, but it’s nothing compared to the 738,780 stopped along the southern US border last year.
US Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told CBC that Canada is considering the matter, but a spokesperson for Canada’s Immigration Minister Sean Fraser says the Trudeau government “has no plans to reimpose the visa requirement at this time."
But we don’t expect that to be the end of it, especially with Biden and Trudeau facing mounting pressure over illegal migration in the runup to their respective next elections in 2024 and 2025. Still, for all the chatter, when it comes to border politics, the US-Mexican border drives the agenda much more than the northern one.
Migrants wait to cross into Canada at Roxham Road, an unofficial crossing point from New York state to Quebec for asylum-seekers.
Will US-Canada border deal mean riskier future for migrants?
It had been nearly seven years since a US presidential visit to Canada when Joe Biden arrived in Ottawa last Thursday. President Donald Trump came by in 2018 for the G-7 summit, but it’s not the same as a dedicated stop.
As these things usually go, Biden’s visit was cast as part politics, part policy.
Would it help Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, lower in the polls than he’d prefer and surely thinking about an election that is due by Oct. 2025 but could arrive sooner? Would it help Biden, who comes from a country where presidential elections run 24/7/365? Would anything meaningful come from all the banners and speeches and flags and handshakes?
On the eve of Biden’s arrival, news started to leak about a border deal — an agreement that was announced on Friday. The amendment to the Safe Third Country Agreement will see Canada officially accept 15,000 asylum-seekers from the Western hemisphere under a new refugee program while gaining the right to send back migrants who attempt to enter the country through unofficial crossings within 14 days of intercepting them.
More details are to come, including who the 15,000 will be, where they will be drawn from and how they will enter Canada. There is also more to come on precisely how the 14-day interception period will work, although those who cross irregularly and are not apprehended within that window may apply for asylum and have their case heard by the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada.
New deal, a long time coming, closes loophole
For years, the two sides have wrangled over irregular crossings, which were not covered in the STCA back in 2002-2004 for reasons that aren’t exactly clear. This “loophole” made asylum-seekers the responsibility of whichever country they crossed into through unofficial points of entry, a challenge that the U.S. didn’t mind shifting onto their northern neighbor as many claimants crossed into Canada across its border.
In 2022, Canada saw nearly 40,000 people arrive at these unofficial border spots, asylum-seekers who, had they crossed at official points of entry, would have been turned around and sent back to the United States under the terms of the agreement.
But as the issue became more of a problem for the United States – over 100,000 migrant encounters from Canada were reported by US Homeland Security officials last year – the Biden administration warmed up to the idea of amending the agreement.
Migrants now face even more risks
The new Trudeau-Biden agreement took effect immediately. No notice. No grace period. As Verity Stevenson reported for CBC, migrants were stunned and heartbroken.
Migration advocates and experts warn the amendment will drive asylum-seekers underground, which may lead to increased deaths. Moreover, it may not solve the crisis at the border, which is a significant but small part of a much deeper and growing catastrophe worldwide: The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that more than 117 million people will be displaced in 2023. What does that conclusion say about the deal?
Christina Clark-Kazak, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa and migration expert, says the approach is unproven. Indeed, she says the deal is “part of a trend of rich countries ensuring that asylum-seekers never get to their borders, so they never have to deal with them.” Instead, governments prefer to pick and choose their claimants from a distance.
Whether the deal is good policy will be determined by outcomes, but the forecast is a bit grim: People are still going to come, and their journey will become riskier.
A mix of public policy and politics
The whole thing is political — and politics. The Roxham Road crossing between New York state and Quebec has seen the lion’s share of irregular crossings. Quebec Premier François Legault said he was “happy” with the deal and called it a “very good victory,” citing his province’s inability to process and settle claimants who entered at Roxham.
The STCA amendment is a political win for Trudeau, at least for now. It’s particularly important for what it may do for his party’s fortunes in Quebec, where the future of the Liberal government will be determined.
Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center, says there’s a sound political logic to the deal. Canada will be alleviating some of the pressure on the U.S. border with its acceptance of 15,000 asylum-seekers while closing unofficial crossings, which may play well for the Liberals and the Democrats with their voters. As noted, there will also be fewer migrants coming into the United States through Canada after years of increased north-south crossings.
“We both get things that will help our current leaders with elections,” Sands says. This is a critical point to understand the machinations of the deal, which could serve as a model for the US-Mexico border, too — a much bigger challenge for Biden and U.S. policymakers. Given that, this deal could be “a reasonable plan that buys Biden time and takes the pressure off,” he adds.
Moreover, Biden may be thinking that Trudeau is his best bet for a workable deal, Sands notes, as there’s no guarantee the Liberal prime minister will still be the country’s head of government in a few years. For the Canadian side, Trudeau might be thinking the same thing, staring down a possible DeSantis or Trump redux administration.
Do as we say, not as we do?
Whatever the case, Clark-Kazak warns that the change to the STCA may further undermine Canadian, and by implication US, standing abroad. “We can’t go to a country like Pakistan and say, ‘You must continue to accept hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of Afghans because you have a moral obligation to do so’ and in the meantime, we’re closing our borders,” she says.
The border deal is the marquee story of Biden’s visit to Canada. The STCA amendment may be good politics. But it may backfire. Whether it’s good policy will be determined in the months and years to come. And the devil will be in the details. In the meantime, there are plenty of reasons for concern despite two days of toasts and pats on the back.
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A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.