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Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba bows to LDP lawmakers onstage after a press conference, a day after Japan's lower house election, at the party's headquarters in Tokyo, Japan October 28, 2024.
It’s horse-trading season in Japan after shock election
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is promising deep internal reforms to the Liberal Democratic Party after voters delivered what he called a “severe judgment” in Sunday’s elections, costing him the majority in the lower house of Parliament. The LDP has ruled since 1955 with only brief interruptions, but it lost 56 seats as voters expressed frustration with a funding scandal that has tarnished the party’s image with corruption and entitlement.
An unforced error? The PM only came to power on Oct. 1 in an internal party vote after his predecessor, Fumio Kishida, stepped down. Ishiba could have waited up to a year to call an election but wanted to win a mandate from voters quickly. A little patience might have paid off – and given him time to move away from the scandal and work on Japan’s sluggish economy.
What’s next? Ishiba has 30 days to form a coalition, and he will need to include an extra partner beyond traditional allies from the Komeito party. The most likely contender is the Democratic Party for the People, a fellow center-right party that saw its seat count rise from 7 to 28, but its leader is playing hardball. Yuichiro Tamaki says he would prefer to work with the LDP on an issue-by-issue basis — which would mean catering to his needs on every vote.
Will the US-Japan alliance suffer? Not likely. The alliance is a point of broad consensus in Tokyo, but plans to amp up Japanese defense may need to take a backseat.A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces US-2 search-and-rescue amphibian plane, manufactured by ShinMaywa Industries Ltd, is seen in this updated handout photo released by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces, and obtained by Reuters on November 4, 2013
US, Japan boost military ties
The United States and Japan announced Sunday that they will deepen defense cooperation in response to increasing threats from Russia and China. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Japanese counterparts Minoru Kihara and Yoko Kamikawaannounced the move in a joint statement following a meeting in Tokyo. The announcement builds on Japan’s 2022 commitment to boost defense spending to 2% of its GDP by 2027, which will make it the third-largest defense budget in the world.
Japan currently hosts 54,000 American troops, hundreds of US aircraft, and Washington’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier strike group. The new plan will reconstitute US forces in Japan into a joint force headquarters for better coordination. And for the first time, the two countries also discussed “extended deterrence,” meaning a US commitment to use nuclear force to deter attacks on allies.
Austin described the move as a “historic decision.” The two countries criticized Moscow’s “growing and provocative strategic military cooperation” with Beijing and labeled China’s “political, economic, and military coercion” the “greatest strategic challenge” facing the region and the world.
So far, there has been no official response from Moscow or Beijing, butpro-China media warn the deal will “put Tokyo in the front line of a counterattack from other countries, including a nuclear conflict” – a sensitive subject on the eve of the 72nd anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, on Aug. 6 and 9.Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida poses with U.S President Joe Biden as they are on the way to state dinner in Washington DC, U.S, on April 10, 2024.
Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat
The White House showered Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida with gifts and honors during his state visit starting Wednesday, but the friendly display is aimed just as much at Beijing as it is Tokyo.
Kishida and Biden announced an upgrade to the longstanding US-Japan defense agreement on Wednesday that will make Japan’s military more agile by appointing a local US command and organizing a joint military-industrial production committee. The two will hold a trilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday to discuss further military cooperation.
“The US-Japan security alliance – even though it’s remarkably strong – is not well integrated and unified in a way where forces can rapidly respond,” says Eurasia Group Japan director David Boling, “The long-term goal is for a combined command, with deep force integration, that can respond lickety-split to emergency contingencies.”
A Paul Simonconcert over ribeye must be a nice change of atmosphere for Kishida, who is unpopular and struggling to put a lid on party scandals at home. One of the few areas where he does relatively well with voters is foreign policy, and Kishida has continued the augmentation of Japan’s armed forces while bolstering relations with South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines — all potential conflict zones with China.
Tokyo’s relationship with Manila has seen the greatest strides forward, including a new agreement that could see Japanese troops deployed to the archipelago.
“On the Philippines, Japan has recognized that any contingency that escalates into a kinetic conflict is going to immediately implicate Japan,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. After all, many of the US troops and ships that would support the Philippines (or Taiwan or South Korea) are stationed in Japan, making US bases there tempting targets for China.
We’re watching for Beijing’s reaction to Thursday’s trilateral.