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US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on March 30, 2025.
Japan courts both the US and China on security and trade
The two countries agreed tospeed up plans to jointly develop and produce missiles such as Advanced Medium-Range Air to Air Missiles, or MRAAM, and consider producing SM-6 surface-to-air missiles. Japan and the US will also accelerate the maintenance of American warships and warplanes at its air bases in Japan and boost defense industries in both countries.
But America isn’t Japan’s only friend in the neighborhood. On the same day that Hegseth met with Nakatani, the trade ministers of South Korea, China, and Japan held theirfirst economic dialogue since 2020 in Seoul. The three countries are seeking to strengthen their economic relationship in the face of US tariffs set to rise on “liberation day,” April 2. Their next meeting will take place in Japan.A Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces US-2 search-and-rescue amphibian plane, manufactured by ShinMaywa Industries Ltd, is seen in this updated handout photo released by the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces, and obtained by Reuters on November 4, 2013
US, Japan boost military ties
The United States and Japan announced Sunday that they will deepen defense cooperation in response to increasing threats from Russia and China. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Japanese counterparts Minoru Kihara and Yoko Kamikawaannounced the move in a joint statement following a meeting in Tokyo. The announcement builds on Japan’s 2022 commitment to boost defense spending to 2% of its GDP by 2027, which will make it the third-largest defense budget in the world.
Japan currently hosts 54,000 American troops, hundreds of US aircraft, and Washington’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier strike group. The new plan will reconstitute US forces in Japan into a joint force headquarters for better coordination. And for the first time, the two countries also discussed “extended deterrence,” meaning a US commitment to use nuclear force to deter attacks on allies.
Austin described the move as a “historic decision.” The two countries criticized Moscow’s “growing and provocative strategic military cooperation” with Beijing and labeled China’s “political, economic, and military coercion” the “greatest strategic challenge” facing the region and the world.
So far, there has been no official response from Moscow or Beijing, butpro-China media warn the deal will “put Tokyo in the front line of a counterattack from other countries, including a nuclear conflict” – a sensitive subject on the eve of the 72nd anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, on Aug. 6 and 9.Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida poses with U.S President Joe Biden as they are on the way to state dinner in Washington DC, U.S, on April 10, 2024.
Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat
The White House showered Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida with gifts and honors during his state visit starting Wednesday, but the friendly display is aimed just as much at Beijing as it is Tokyo.
Kishida and Biden announced an upgrade to the longstanding US-Japan defense agreement on Wednesday that will make Japan’s military more agile by appointing a local US command and organizing a joint military-industrial production committee. The two will hold a trilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday to discuss further military cooperation.
“The US-Japan security alliance – even though it’s remarkably strong – is not well integrated and unified in a way where forces can rapidly respond,” says Eurasia Group Japan director David Boling, “The long-term goal is for a combined command, with deep force integration, that can respond lickety-split to emergency contingencies.”
A Paul Simonconcert over ribeye must be a nice change of atmosphere for Kishida, who is unpopular and struggling to put a lid on party scandals at home. One of the few areas where he does relatively well with voters is foreign policy, and Kishida has continued the augmentation of Japan’s armed forces while bolstering relations with South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines — all potential conflict zones with China.
Tokyo’s relationship with Manila has seen the greatest strides forward, including a new agreement that could see Japanese troops deployed to the archipelago.
“On the Philippines, Japan has recognized that any contingency that escalates into a kinetic conflict is going to immediately implicate Japan,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. After all, many of the US troops and ships that would support the Philippines (or Taiwan or South Korea) are stationed in Japan, making US bases there tempting targets for China.
We’re watching for Beijing’s reaction to Thursday’s trilateral.
President Joe Biden Meets With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida meet in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC in January 2023.
US and Japan will upgrade military ties
In the past, US military planners have treated Japan as a forward position for its troops in East Asia, but without much coordination with historically underdeveloped Japanese forces, and this move underscores the deeper investment Japan has made in recent years in its own military capabilities.
It’s also a response to a perceived growing threat from China, including in the Taiwan Strait. (The Kishida administration has referred to Taiwan as Japan’s “extremely crucial partner and an important friend.”)
It signals a stronger stance by the US and its East Asian allies on threats from North Korea. And thanks to the improvements in Japan’s relationship with South Korea, Seoul is not objecting to the upgraded ties as it once might have..
The specifics will take months for senior US and Japanese officials to hash out, but even the initial announcement will raise heart rates in Beijing.
Thick plates of steel for use in construction and ship building are hot-rolled by machinery at the Nippon Steel Corp. Kimitsu steel mill in Kimitsu, Japan near Tokyo February 6, 2008.
Biden slams Nippon Steel deal — but Tokyo plays it cool
US President Joe Biden on Thursday came out against Japan’s largest steel producer acquiring Pittsburgh-based US Steel, saying America must “maintain strong American steel companies powered by American steelworkers.”
Nippon Steel made an offer worth over $14 billion in December, and shortly afterward the White House indicated it would be scrutinized by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States. For now, the deal is still on, but CFIUS review is usually reserved for deals involving companies from potential adversaries – not from trusted allies like Japan — and presidents rarely comment before the committee finishes.
But this is 2024. Biden and presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump are battling over blue-collar workers in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania in November. Trump promised to block the deal “instantaneously” during a meeting with Teamsters earlier this year, and Biden has never been shy to flex his union bona fides.
How does Tokyo feel? Discretion seems to be the better part of valor for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
“Tokyo understands that in love and politics, timing is everything and that the political timing of this deal is awful for Biden,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan analyst David Boling. “That doesn’t mean that Tokyo is happy that Washington is treating an ally this way. But it’s not putting up a big fuss.”
Would US-Japan ties be hurt by a Trump re-election?
Can one of the United States' closest allies count on it when the chips are down?
That question was up in the air during the four years of President Trump's administration. And now that the former President has a real chance of winning the White House in 2024 again, it's an urgent question again. And it's one that Ian Bremmer puts to the US Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, in the last episode of GZERO World.
In an exclusive interview in Tokyo, Bremmer and Emanuel discuss various topics, ranging from the crucial (but complicated) US-Japan relationship, the ever-present security threats China poses, and the raging conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
But perhaps no question hit closer to home than America's reliability. "Elections may fluctuate," Emanuel assures Ian, "but strategic interests align."
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode: The complicated US-Japan relationship
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
The complicated US-Japan relationship
The US-Japan alliance is complex. But among other priorities, to rein in China, both countries need each other.
If you know anything about Rahm Emanuel, it's that speaking diplomatically may not be his forte. And yet, his current post demands it. The former White House chief of staff (called, in his day, a "pitbull") and the polarizing mayor of Chicago now serves as the US ambassador to Japan, one of the US' closest allies. Ian Bremmer was in Tokyo for an exclusive interview with Emanuel. And though the ambassador did his best to remain "diplomatic," there were flashes of the "pitbull" as well.
In a wide-ranging interview, the Ambassador discusses Japan's critical role as a key US ally in the Asia-Pacific and a bulwark against an ever-expanding China. Emanuel also discusses a recent trilateral meeting between the US, Japan, and South Korea at the Camp David presidential compound and the significance of these alliances in countering aggression and promoting diplomacy. Perhaps he is most wary of drifting out of his lane when commenting on wars in the Middle East and Europe. But he does touch on the polarization of the Israel-Palestine issue and the need for a moral grounding in addressing the conflict.
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Podcast: Unpacking the complicated US-Japan relationship with Ambassador Rahm Emanuel
Ian Bremmer is in Tokyo, Japan, to check in on America’s “pivot to Asia.” How’s that going? Given that neither Ukraine nor Israel is located in the Asia Pacific, it is not so great!
In 2011, then-President Obama announced on a trip to Australia that US foreign policy would be shifting its focus away from costly wars in the Middle East and towards strengthening partnerships in the Asia-Pacific to curb a rising China. Twelve years later, we’re still pivoting. But if we ever do get there, we will have to take Japan, one of our closest regional allies, along with us. To talk about US-Japan relations, as well as a whole host of sticky policy issues, foreign and domestic, Ian is joined by US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel. Ian will also get his take on the Israel-Hamas war and the fighting in Ukraine.