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U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) speaks during an election night party
The Peach State has spoken
“The people have spoken,” US Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock said late Tuesday night as he took the stage after winning a nail-biter run-off election in Georgia. Warnock narrowly defeated his GOP rival Herschel Walker, of former NFL fame, to give Dems a 51-seat majority in the upper chamber. (Neither candidate reaped 50% of votes in the first round last month, sending the Peach State back to the polls for round two.) This result confirms that Senate Dems protected every seat they had on the ballot in last month’s midterms, as well as flipping one crucial seat in Pennsylvania. This edge means that Team Blue will now lead every Senate committee, giving them more wiggle room to confirm President Biden’s judicial picks and prevent their Senate rivals from tinkering with legislation. The defeat of Walker, backed by Donald Trump, is another big blow for the former president, whose interventions in the midterm election proved disastrous for the GOP. It also confirms that Georgia, once a deep-red state where Brian Kemp recently won reelection as governor, is now a battleground state that's up for grabs in 2024.
GOP-led US House will get tougher on China — but not as much as you'd think
Republicans succeeded in unseating Democratic leadership of the House in this US midterm election and will take control of the lower chamber early next year. Still, one foreign policy issue that seems to enjoy unusual bipartisan consensus in Washington is China. While there’s some truth to that assessment, there are differences in the China-related issues that each party tends to emphasize. There’s also quite a lot of partisan politics undergirding deliberation and debate over China.
Both parties are vying to position themselves as the better choice to lead the United States in rising to the China challenge. The Republican primary for the 2024 presidential race will get underway soon, and GOP hopefuls will be competing with each other, seeking to convey to voters their credentials as critics of the Chinese Communist Party. More than 80% of Americans now hold unfavorable views of China, but Republican voters express comparatively greater concern, and that is reflected in GOP candidates’ relatively outspoken support for hawkish China policy.
For both of these reasons, even though the Biden administration continues to take a tough line on China, Eurasia Group analyst Anna Ashton fully expects a Republican-controlled US Congress to charge that the White House is not being tough enough. We asked her how this might affect American policy toward Beijing.
What is known about the China views of the expected new committee heads?
Several key House committees are likely to be run by Republicans who have already distinguished themselves as China hawks. Mike McCaul (R-TX), the presumptive chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, has pushed for greater US military support for Taiwan and sought stronger Congressional oversight of China export controls. Mike Rogers (R-AL), the favorite to head up the Armed Services Committee, has urged greater preparation for a Chinese attack on Taiwan and called for withdrawing US supply chains from China. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), the likely new boss of the Energy and Commerce Committee, has highlighted the risk that green energy solutions will perpetuate US reliance on China. Finally, the likely next chairs of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee (Sam Graves, MO) and the Natural Resources Committee (Bruce Westerman, AR) have both joined McMorris Rodgers in drawing attention to this problem, urging that the US avoid “relying on authoritarian regimes for energy.”
Will the small Republican majority result in less pressure on China than if the expected red wave would have materialized?
Although there are noteworthy divides between House Republicans and Democrats on how to approach China issues, there is significantly more common ground between House Republicans and Senate Democrats. A small majority in the House does not necessarily translate to poor odds for Republicans’ China proposals in Congress overall. Republicans’ very slight lead is looking like it could prove to be powerful leverage for far-right Republicans who want more of a say in House priorities, but Freedom Caucus members are not lead voices on China issues. To the extent they seek to influence the China agenda, they are likely to support attention to issues like the repression of religious freedom and the origins of the COVID virus. But it is also fair to say that most of these members will be focused on other issues.
What new or existing legislation is the Republican House expected to advance?
In 2020, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy established a GOP China Task Force, which later issued a report with more than 300 policy recommendations for Congress and the administration on how to deal with Beijing. The six categories have been common threads in hundreds of proposed bills during the last two congresses and will likely continue to be strong themes: ideological competition, supply chain security, national security, technology, economics and energy, and competitiveness.
China-related issues that have drawn Republican interest suggest that the 118th Congress might push more aggressively to revise America’s longstanding Taiwan policy. The GOP will move so send more high-profile Congressional delegations to Taiwan, intensify pressure to curb licenses for tech exports to China, and further limit Chinese companies’ ability to access US capital.
The GOP also wants to establish a Select Committee on China, which will hold hearings, conduct investigations, and coordinate messaging. Expect hearings focused on Chinese influence over US companies and Chinese influence operations in the United States.
Given the fairly strong anti-China stances of both parties, what are the prospects for cooperation with the Democrat-controlled Senate and White House?
The Senate, under narrow Democratic control, has demonstrated strong cooperation on China legislation, passing the sprawling US-China Innovation and Competition Act, or USICA, in June 2021 with 19 Republican yes votes. The CHIPS and Science Act that ultimately became law is far less comprehensive than USICA — in part because bipartisan cooperation on the wider array of issues proved impossible. The House will likely continue to struggle for consensus on many China issues, though both parties might find some common ground on proposals that call out China’s human rights record, improve US competitiveness at home, or better protect US security interests.
How is China expected to react and what are the risks of crossing Chinese “red lines”?
In general, when Beijing opts for an official response to punitive US actions, it opts for equal and reciprocal measures. But moves that are not officially retaliatory are more common.
The most significant known red line for China is official US recognition of the sovereignty and independence of Taiwan, but that’s highly unlikely to happen under the Biden administration. American efforts to strengthen ties with Taiwan — especially measures that grant more trappings of sovereignty to Taiwan — will provoke strong responses from China. Congressional visits and legislation that appear to grant Taiwan more of the trappings of sovereignty could result in additional live-fire military exercises, sanctions on US officials, and reduced cooperation and communication on issues of mutual interest.
Provocations centered on Taiwan, human rights, democracy, or other issues that Beijing views as matters of sovereignty could spur China to enforce some of its provisions aimed at countering US long-arm jurisdiction — the ability of American courts to exercise jurisdiction over foreign defendants from China. US efforts to contain China’s technological advancement could also ultimately trigger strong retaliation, but the two sides are currently seeking to stabilize ties.
What We’re Watching: Republican House, Israeli robo-guns, Poland’s back
GOP wins slim House majority
More than a week after the US midterm elections, the Republican Party finally clinched its 218th seat in the House on Wednesday, giving the GOP a razor-slim majority in the chamber. But with several races still not called, the exact margin remains unclear — the tighter it is, the harder it'll be for Kevin McCarthy, who’s expected to replace Nancy Pelosi as House speaker, to keep his caucus together. A Republican-held House effectively kills the Democrats’ legislative agenda, although retaining control of the Senate will keep extremist proposals away from President Joe Biden's desk and allow him to appoint federal judges. For the GOP, it's an opportunity to launch investigations on stuff like the origins of COVID, the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Republicans' favorite target: Biden's own son, Hunter. It might even lead to impeaching the president. On foreign policy, expect the GOP to penny-pinch US aid to Ukraine and make Congress get even tougher on China — perhaps not the best idea after Biden and Xi Jinping decided to cool things down at the G-20 in Bali.
AI-controlled guns in the West Bank
You may be worried about the implications of self-driving cars, and fair enough after that rogue Tesla went on a killing spree in China earlier this month. But now consider the challenges of self-shooting … guns. It’s not a hypothetical anymore, as Israel has now deployed AI-controlled weapons in the occupied West Bank that can fire tear gas, stun grenades, and sponge-tipped bullets at protesters. Weapons like these are, like remotely piloted drones, hailed as a way to limit soldiers’ exposure to battlefield harm. But they naturally provoke a host of legal and moral issues. Who is responsible for misfires or malfunctions? What biases are baked into the AI programs that control them? Could these weapons be hacked? And in conjunction with the use of facial recognition algorithms, do these weapons raise potentially lethal questions about privacy and what human rights activists call “digital dehumanization”? One thing seems certain: 20th-century rules of war will not be adequate for these 21st-century weapons.
What’s the view from Poland?
Poles have even more reason to watch their collective back after a missile hit the eastern village of Przewodów on Tuesday, killing two. Polish officials said the hit was unintentional and linked to Ukrainian defenses, but President Volodymyr Zelensky pushed back on Wednesday, insisting “this is not our missile.” Ukrainians want access to the impact site and have offered to help investigate — and to produce evidence of a “Russian trace.” Przewodów parents, meanwhile, kept their children home Wednesday to avoid sending them to a school located just 330 feet from the blast site. Polish border towns have been fearing spillover from the war in Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February. While many were relieved by the prospect of this being an accident, Poland remains on high alert, and the incident has sparked renewed debate over the need for a NATO-patrolled no-fly zone to thwart Russian missile attacks. Germany rejected the idea, but Berlin is offering support to Poland’s air defenses. And although the episode highlights the risk of tripping into World War III, it’s reassuring that both Russia and the West were quick to deny this was an intentional — or escalatory — event.This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto leads a rally ahead of the midterm elections in Henderson, Nevada.
What We’re Watching: Dems’ Senate victory, Iran's first protester death sentence, Ethiopia's peace deal
Dems take the Senate
The long wait has ended with Democrats retaining control of the US Senate. The victory was sealed after Catherine Cortez Masto, the Nevada incumbent locked in a tight race against her Donald Trump-backed rival, squeezed through with a narrow win. Meanwhile, a Democrat also won Nevada’s race for secretary of state – another midterm defeat for pro-Trump election deniers. With the Senate now at 50-49 for Dems (who have the advantage of VP Harris’ tie-breaking vote), the White House is now turning its attention to Georgia. A Senate runoff in the Peach State on Dec. 6 could see the Dems clinch 51 seats, giving them majorities in Senate committees and more wiggle room on key bills. Meanwhile, the House remains too close to call, but the GOP is slightly favored to win, needing just 7 seats to reach a majority, compared to the Dems’ 14. Still, many of the 21 House seats that haven’t been called yet are toss-ups, and the Dems have secured victories in unexpected races over the past few days. Buckle up for a nail-biter.
Iran sentences protester to death and indicts dozens
On Sunday, a Tehran court issued its first death sentence linked to ongoing riots in the Islamic Republic, and dozens more were indicted in a bid to quash the women-led movement that’s rocked the country for two months. At least 300 people have been killed and 15,000 arrested since nationwide protests erupted after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for donning her hijab "improperly." The death sentence comes weeks after 80% of Iran’s parliamentarians voted in favor of executing demonstrators, the majority of whom are young women calling for regime change. To date, most of the indictments – over 1,000 – have been handed down in Tehran, the capital, but the latest charges were issued in the southern province of Hormozgan, suggesting that the use of Iran’s draconian judiciary to deal with protesters is intensifying. A transnational group that tracks political detentions says at least 65 of those charged are minors. Meanwhile, Iceland and Germany are calling for a special session at the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the situation, which could send a powerful message to the mullahs but is unlikely to have a real bearing on the regime’s crackdown.
Inching closer to peace in Tigray
The Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces have agreed to terms for a peace deal that could end a two-year conflict that’s turned the northern region of Tigray into a hellscape. The deal stipulates that both sides will begin to lay down their arms on Nov. 15 and comes after Ethiopia's central government and the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a paramilitary group, agreed in principle to end the war at an African Union-brokered summit earlier this month. The aim is to create a humanitarian corridor to Tigray, which has long been blockaded by Addis Ababa, leaving more than 89% of Tigray’s population requiring food assistance. Still, several sticking points remain, including whether Eritrean forces, who have fought alongside Ethiopian forces and have their own territorial claims, will put down their arms. Clearly, the Tigrayans won't abide by the deal’s terms until all their opponents do. Will one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts finally come to an end?
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
Bracing for 2024: Trump vs. DeSantis
As dust from US midterm elections begins to settle, the focus is shifting to tension brewing within the GOP. Former President Donald Trump looks poised to announce his 2024 presidential bid, and many expect Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to throw his hat in the ring. Trump is publicly discouraging DeSantis from running – threatening him even. With the race for 2024 set to begin, we asked Eurasia Group’s lead US political analyst Jon Lieber for his insights on the DeSantis-Trump feud and the likely 2024 presidential tickets.
Do you believe both Trump and DeSantis will run for 2024? When will they throw their hats in the ring?
Yes. Trump has hinted he's going to go for it next week at a big rally, but I think the Georgia runoff complicates that. He has the opportunity to take credit for a win, but he also faces the downside risk of taking the blame for a loss. I think that it's a pretty risky move for him to continue to go ahead with this plan. He could end up delaying, but I'd be shocked if we got to Christmas Eve and he hadn't figured out some way to get all the attention on him by announcing.
If Trump launches but DeSantis waits until after the next legislative session, would that give Trump the upper hand?
No, it’s a formality. Everybody knows he's doing this. The thing is that Trump and DeSantis, while they may have to play in the same pool of voters to win the nomination, they're not going to play in the same pool of donors. Trump's full money-making operation is the small donors he gets from online and then a couple of large benefactors. DeSantis is going to draw a huge chunk of change the day he announces from deep-pocketed, anti-Trump Republican donors desperate to consolidate the field and have a party led by somebody other than Trump.
How would the GOP change under DeSantis?
The Republican Party wants to be a multiethnic, populist conservative coalition, so pro-border security, anti-trade, anti-big business, anti-woke agenda, pro-life. So all the similar themes you're seeing right now, without all the chaos that Trump brings.
How would you characterize the matchup between DeSantis and Trump?
Trump has proven quite good at destroying his opponents. DeSantis hasn't gone through that gauntlet yet. In 2016, Trump came out of nowhere to just humiliate Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz, and all the other people running, by saying some nasty, sometimes untrue, sometimes true things. DeSantis is going to have to face that. That's the biggest risk for him.
Are Republicans blaming Trump, and what did you make of the New York Post likening Trump to Humpty Dumpty?
Trump is 100% getting blamed for this. His candidates did horribly in statewide elections in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and TBD Arizona. As for Murdoch, his empire has turned against Trump and made a kind of conscious decision to turn against him over the last six months. I think that reflects sort of a broadly held view among the Republican elite that hitching your wagon to the Trump train in 2024 is a mistake.
Do you think DeSantis has the charisma needed for a presidential bid?
Ron DeSantis is an extremely talented political actor. I don't expect he's going to attract a lot of crossover Democratic voters, but I think that when you win Florida by 20 percentage points, you don't do that just with Republicans. So I think he's clearly doing something right. I think he'll be a formidable presidential candidate should he run -- and the biggest threat to him being president in 2024 is probably the threat of Trump running as an independent and cleaving off 30% of the Republican voting base in the general election.
The risk in '24 for the Republicans is that Trump loses the primary and then takes his ball and goes home because he needs to keep his kind of political money-making operation going. He needs to be in the limelight, and that means running as a political candidate so you can do the kind of small-dollar fundraising he's good at. So the risk to DeSantis running, the biggest risk to the Republican Party in 2024, is that Trump loses in the primary, runs as an independent, and splits the Republican vote in the general, giving the election to the Democrats no matter what the state of the economy is.
Biden is saying he plans to run. How are Dems looking at 2024?
Independents broke for Democrats this election cycle. They broke strongly for Democrats in the key swing states where MAGA Republicans were up top of the ticket. Abortion referendums won basically everywhere. Pro-access referendums won basically everywhere they were on the ticket. Michigan Democrats had a very strong night, and they had a pro-choice, pro-access, female governor at the top of the ticket and a pro-access ballot referendum, and they had a very good night.
Democrats had a really good night across the Midwest, which I think shows a path forward for Democrats in 2024. Some of these Midwestern governors could be viable candidates should Joe Biden decide not to run. Biden's got to make a choice about his age. The good thing for him is that kind of having a good night here helps him within the party because it minimizes the narrative of this blowback against him, but it also gives him an opportunity to gracefully step down.
Which Dems do you believe could become viable candidates in 2024?
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom for sure. Whitmer and DeSantis had the two best nights on Tuesday. I think North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper will probably compete. Someone like Colorado Governor Jared Polis could be a candidate. So I think the Dems actually have a pretty good bench.
And the GOP ticket?
I think it's going to be DeSantis. DeSantis has the advantage of there being a lot of anti-Trump Republicans who are looking to consolidate the field quickly, and I think it's going to be hard for people like Mike Pompeo or Mike Pence to raise enough money to be competitive if DeSantis decides to get in the race.
- Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans? - GZERO Media ›
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Georgia Senate candidates: U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R)
What We’re Watching: US midterm cliffhanger, Russia’s Kherson retreat, ASEAN summit kickoff
Control of Congress hangs in the balance
“It was a good day for democracy and I think a good day for America,” President Joe Biden said Wednesday night about the midterm election results. The US House and Senate both remain in play after Republicans failed to deliver on their promise of giving Democrats a shellacking. While the GOP is still favored to take control of the lower chamber, incoming House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is likely to preside over a slim and dysfunctional GOP majority – hardly the wave he had anticipated. The GOP is still 11 seats short of clinching a majority in the House, and several competitive districts are still being counted. Control of the Senate, meanwhile, rests on three states – Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia – that remain too close to call. The race in the Peach State between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker will go to a run-off on Dec. 6 after neither reaped 50% of the vote. What’s more, measures to enshrine abortion rights were overwhelmingly backed by voters in states including Michigan, California, and Vermont. Even deep-red Kentucky refused to back an amendment denying the constitutional right to abortion, proving that curtailing abortion access is a losing issue for the GOP.
Russia suffers southern setback
In a major blow to Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” in Ukraine, Russia on Wednesday announced it was withdrawing its forces from Kherson city, capital of the strategic southern region of the same name. The retreat comes after weeks of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive meant specifically to retake the only regional capital Russia had taken over since invading in February. Russia’s military leaders, looking cheerful as always, spun the withdrawal as a measure to “preserve combat readiness,” but there’s no doubt that this was a big loss. Still, in retreating across to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, Russia still controls much of Kherson province, which borders on the Crimean Peninsula. Things seem to be going Kyiv’s way at the moment, but will Ukraine push further? Meanwhile, in positive news on Armageddon-watch, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has reportedly been in direct contact for months with his Kremlin counterparts in a bid to avert nuclear escalation.
Bongbong at ASEAN
The annual ASEAN summit, which brings together 10 Southeast Asian nations, gets underway in Cambodia on Thursday. As ever, the US-China rivalry will hang over the entire event. US President Joe Biden is set to attend a US-ASEAN summit on Saturday, where he’ll press to deepen ties in infrastructure, investment, and trade. China, meanwhile, is sending Foreign Minister Li Keqiang for a separate China-ASEAN summit, where Beijing will push to accelerate a free trade deal while dangling more Belt and Road infrastructure investment. Expect the regional powers to tread carefully between the global superpower and the regional heavyweight — China is by far the largest trade and investment partner for ASEAN members, but many are wary of its territorial encroachments on the South China Sea. One thing to watch is the speech of recently elected Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who is set to address the delicate situation in Myanmar and call for a “code of conduct” in the South China Sea.Voters cast their ballots in the midterm election, in Detroit, Michigan.
US midterms: What we know and what we don’t
It was anything but a boring night in US politics. Votes are still being tallied in many states, but one thing is clear: There was no red wave.
Here’s what we know – and what we don’t – after a night spent watching breathless vote counting and downing too much coffee.
What we know:
A nightmare scenario for Trump. In Florida, incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis won in a blowout, setting up one helluva showdown with Donald Trump, who is expected to announce his third bid for the White House next week.
Trump appears to be feeling increasingly threatened by DeSantis, a rising Republican star, and has sought to intimidate the Floridian in recent days. Crucially, DeSantis won Miami Dade, Florida's most populous county, by more than 11 points, reflecting the Republican Party's inroads with Hispanic voters.
What’s more, many of the candidates that Trump backed – including Michigan's John Gibbs and Tudor Dixon, running for the House and governor respectively, as well as Pennsylvania gubernatorial contender Doug Mastriano – had very bad nights. Predicting that the riffraff of election deniers and provocateurs would not appeal to American voters, Dems – yes Dems – poured millions of dollars into propping up these GOP candidates in primary races, and the strategy seems to have paid off.
It was also a night of firsts. In Maryland, Democrat Wes Moore, a combat veteran who has never held public office, will become the state’s first Black governor. Meanwhile, Maura Healey, the attorney general of Massachusetts since 2014, won her gubernatorial race to become the state’s first female governor and the first openly lesbian governor in US history.
Was it a red sputter? Proving naysayers wrong, Dems outperformed in several close House races, including Virginia’s 7th district – largely seen as a national bellwether – where blue-dog Democrat Abigail Spanberger narrowly retained her seat. The Dems also flipped a House seat in an Ohio district that includes much of Cincinnati, while Republicans’ hopes of picking up Senate seats in New Hampshire and Colorado also proved futile. So far, the GOP has ousted just one Democratic incumbent in the House.
Crucially, after a grueling campaign, Democrat John Fetterman narrowly beat Trump-backed Republican Mehmet Oz to become Pennsylvania’s next senator.
What we don’t know:
John Mayer had it right when he asked Why Georgia. You’ll recall that special elections there in 2021 also left us on the edge of our seats waiting to find out which party would wrestle control of the US Senate. And again, Georgia has left us waiting.
While Democrat Stacey Abrams got trampled last night by incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp in the gubernatorial race, the Peach State’s Senate contest remains a nail-biter. Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker remain neck-and-neck and could go to a run-off next month if neither reaps 50% of the vote. That Abrams dramatically underperformed her fellow Democrat as a result of split-ticket voting is extremely surprising in an age where party fealty is also on the ballot.
States playing hard to get? The country is anxiously waiting to see what happens in Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Alaska, and Wisconsin. Indeed, the race to get to 51 Senate seats is hot, with Dems currently holding 48 Senate seats to the GOP’s 47.
Though Republicans are still expected to gain control of the lower chamber (dozens of seats are still being counted), it won’t be by the margin that the party had been hoping for. But a win is a win, and a narrow victory in the House could still be enough for Republicans to stonewall Biden’s legislative agenda.
Now what? The dust will settle and we’ll soon know which party will control the House and Senate. But the race for 2024 is on, and we’ve seen before how Trump responds to personal defeat.
U.S. President Joe Biden campaigns in support of Democrats in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S.
US midterms: Did Democrats blow it?
Bracing for some big losses in midterm elections on Tuesday, many Democrats are expressing disbelief at their impending doom. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently told the New York Times, “I cannot believe anybody would vote for these people,” referring to Republicans on the ballot.
With Democrats fighting to retain control of Congress and with some formerly safe blue seats now up for grabs, many analysts are asking whether the Dems’ poor electoral prospects were inevitable – the curse of incumbency – or if the party shot itself in the foot with out-of-touch electioneering.
Why are things looking so bleak for Dems?
Midterm elections are always a referendum on incumbency, as demonstrated by the fact that the party in control of the White House has lost Congressional seats in 36 out of 39 midterm races since the Civil War. It’s almost impossible to satisfy voters – particularly those caught in a painful spiral of inflation and recession fears – by advocating for the status quo. That’s the current challenge for Democrats: trying to defend their own track record while simultaneously pushing for change.
Making matters worse is that Dems have virtually no margin for error. Defending a 50-50 split in the Senate, and with only a five-seat shift needed to give the GOP control of the House, it was always going to be an uphill battle for team blue.
Americans are deeply divided, but many are united by a shared sense that the country is in free-fall. This time, however, the Dems – in control of the White House and Congress – are most vulnerable to electoral backlash. What’s most surprising is that this dynamic is also playing out in matchups like gubernatorial races in New York and Oregon that should be slam dunks for Dems regardless of the broader political climate.
But were the 2022 midterms always going to be a fait accompli or do current trends reflect a Democratic faux pas? The answer is … a little of both.
Voters have been direct about their concerns, telling politicians for months that they are worried about gas prices, mortgage repayments, and feeding their kids amid 40-year high inflation rates. They’re also focused on rising crime rates – particularly in big cities – something New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is learning the hard way. Those running for office have not had to engage in guesswork to identify voters' deepest insecurities.
Republicans, for their part, have talked relentlessly about the cost-of-living crunch, driving home the message that their opponents are weak on the economy. Though Democrats have addressed economic grievances here and there, their primary message to voters has been to focus first on democratic ideals – and then on their very real economic fears.
This game plan is coming directly from the top. Indeed, in his first major midterm stump speech on Sept. 1 in Philadelphia, the birthplace of American democracy, President Joe Biden claimed that “equality and democracy are under assault,” imploring Americans to go out and vote. This was also his message in a final pitch to voters over the weekend, when Biden reiterated that “democracy is on the ballot for all of us.”
Clayton Allen, a US analyst at Eurasia Group, says this strategy could prove to be a mistake. Playing up the threat to democracy is “an issue that seems like it performs well with focus groups and base Democratic voters, but doesn’t seem like it’s an especially effective measure in swaying undecided voters,” Allen says.
They’ve also missed an opportunity with regard to the economy. “Democrats haven’t been able to coalesce around a core economic message either, which limits their ability to effectively use economic urgency to appeal to voters,” he adds.
Allen may be right. The Dems’ approach doesn’t seem to be resonating with voters who are overwhelmingly focused on bread-and-butter issues. For instance, independent women voters – a highly sought-after electorate – supported Dems by 14 points in September, but by mid-October flipped to favor Republicans by 18 points.
Jon Lieber, US managing director at Eurasia Group, says that “part of the challenge with the threat to democracy narrative is that it means different things to different people,” adding that “big majorities of Republicans think the media or unsecured ballot boxes is the big threat to democracy and will vote on that.”
But even some Democrats have criticized their party for failing to compensate for earlier economic missteps (the Biden administration last year called inflation “temporary") by conveying a sense of urgency about the state of the economy – now!
Something the Dems should have identified as temporary, however, was the summer boom sparked by the reversal of Roe v. Wade as well as a slate of legislative wins. Indeed, as inflation has remained stubbornly high – still topping 8% – Dems appear to have overplayed their hand, believing that the Supreme Court’s move, unpopular with voters, could get them over the finish line.
Economic turmoil has always been a toxic agent that gives the underdog plenty of ammunition to oust the incumbent party. If Dems lose big on Tuesday, paving the way for a slate of GOP newbies, it will be a boon to Trump as he looks set to announce a run for the White House in 2024.
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