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Trump, the shifting GOP, & polarized US politics
Remember when midterms were boring? Definitely not this year: the red wave-turned-ripple was only enough for Republicans to narrowly win the House, while the Democrats kept the Senate. But 'why' it happened is a harder question to answer.
On GZERO World, NPR White House correspondent Tamara Keith speaks to Ian Bremmer about all things midterms and what 2024 has in store for both parties.
For Keith, Democrats turned out more voters worried about democracy and abortion.
Keith shares her perspective on whether the GOP is still a MAGA party or a Trump personality cult and, looking ahead to 2024, whether Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is a viable alternative to the former president.
This interview was featured in a GZERO World episode: US democracy after US midterms: polarized voters & Trump's GOP
Back to divided government: Biden's silver lining from a Republican House
The GOP was gearing up for a red wave in the US midterms. But in the end, it was just a ripple, and while the Republicans narrowly won the House Democrats kept the Senate.
Why? Democrats turned out more voters worried about democracy and abortion, NPR's White House correspondent Tamara Keith tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Divided government with such tight margins, she says, now means two things. First, nothing much is going to get done in Congress for two years.
Second, Republicans will have a hard time overcoming dysfunction in the House.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US democracy after US midterms: polarized voters & Trump's GOP
Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto leads a rally ahead of the midterm elections in Henderson, Nevada.
What We’re Watching: Dems’ Senate victory, Iran's first protester death sentence, Ethiopia's peace deal
Dems take the Senate
The long wait has ended with Democrats retaining control of the US Senate. The victory was sealed after Catherine Cortez Masto, the Nevada incumbent locked in a tight race against her Donald Trump-backed rival, squeezed through with a narrow win. Meanwhile, a Democrat also won Nevada’s race for secretary of state – another midterm defeat for pro-Trump election deniers. With the Senate now at 50-49 for Dems (who have the advantage of VP Harris’ tie-breaking vote), the White House is now turning its attention to Georgia. A Senate runoff in the Peach State on Dec. 6 could see the Dems clinch 51 seats, giving them majorities in Senate committees and more wiggle room on key bills. Meanwhile, the House remains too close to call, but the GOP is slightly favored to win, needing just 7 seats to reach a majority, compared to the Dems’ 14. Still, many of the 21 House seats that haven’t been called yet are toss-ups, and the Dems have secured victories in unexpected races over the past few days. Buckle up for a nail-biter.
Iran sentences protester to death and indicts dozens
On Sunday, a Tehran court issued its first death sentence linked to ongoing riots in the Islamic Republic, and dozens more were indicted in a bid to quash the women-led movement that’s rocked the country for two months. At least 300 people have been killed and 15,000 arrested since nationwide protests erupted after the in-custody death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested for donning her hijab "improperly." The death sentence comes weeks after 80% of Iran’s parliamentarians voted in favor of executing demonstrators, the majority of whom are young women calling for regime change. To date, most of the indictments – over 1,000 – have been handed down in Tehran, the capital, but the latest charges were issued in the southern province of Hormozgan, suggesting that the use of Iran’s draconian judiciary to deal with protesters is intensifying. A transnational group that tracks political detentions says at least 65 of those charged are minors. Meanwhile, Iceland and Germany are calling for a special session at the UN Human Rights Council to discuss the situation, which could send a powerful message to the mullahs but is unlikely to have a real bearing on the regime’s crackdown.
Inching closer to peace in Tigray
The Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces have agreed to terms for a peace deal that could end a two-year conflict that’s turned the northern region of Tigray into a hellscape. The deal stipulates that both sides will begin to lay down their arms on Nov. 15 and comes after Ethiopia's central government and the Tigrayan Popular Liberation Front, a paramilitary group, agreed in principle to end the war at an African Union-brokered summit earlier this month. The aim is to create a humanitarian corridor to Tigray, which has long been blockaded by Addis Ababa, leaving more than 89% of Tigray’s population requiring food assistance. Still, several sticking points remain, including whether Eritrean forces, who have fought alongside Ethiopian forces and have their own territorial claims, will put down their arms. Clearly, the Tigrayans won't abide by the deal’s terms until all their opponents do. Will one of the world’s bloodiest conflicts finally come to an end?
This was featured in Signal, the daily politics newsletter of GZERO Media. For smart coverage of global affairs that normal people can understand, subscribe here.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
Bracing for 2024: Trump vs. DeSantis
As dust from US midterm elections begins to settle, the focus is shifting to tension brewing within the GOP. Former President Donald Trump looks poised to announce his 2024 presidential bid, and many expect Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to throw his hat in the ring. Trump is publicly discouraging DeSantis from running – threatening him even. With the race for 2024 set to begin, we asked Eurasia Group’s lead US political analyst Jon Lieber for his insights on the DeSantis-Trump feud and the likely 2024 presidential tickets.
Do you believe both Trump and DeSantis will run for 2024? When will they throw their hats in the ring?
Yes. Trump has hinted he's going to go for it next week at a big rally, but I think the Georgia runoff complicates that. He has the opportunity to take credit for a win, but he also faces the downside risk of taking the blame for a loss. I think that it's a pretty risky move for him to continue to go ahead with this plan. He could end up delaying, but I'd be shocked if we got to Christmas Eve and he hadn't figured out some way to get all the attention on him by announcing.
If Trump launches but DeSantis waits until after the next legislative session, would that give Trump the upper hand?
No, it’s a formality. Everybody knows he's doing this. The thing is that Trump and DeSantis, while they may have to play in the same pool of voters to win the nomination, they're not going to play in the same pool of donors. Trump's full money-making operation is the small donors he gets from online and then a couple of large benefactors. DeSantis is going to draw a huge chunk of change the day he announces from deep-pocketed, anti-Trump Republican donors desperate to consolidate the field and have a party led by somebody other than Trump.
How would the GOP change under DeSantis?
The Republican Party wants to be a multiethnic, populist conservative coalition, so pro-border security, anti-trade, anti-big business, anti-woke agenda, pro-life. So all the similar themes you're seeing right now, without all the chaos that Trump brings.
How would you characterize the matchup between DeSantis and Trump?
Trump has proven quite good at destroying his opponents. DeSantis hasn't gone through that gauntlet yet. In 2016, Trump came out of nowhere to just humiliate Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz, and all the other people running, by saying some nasty, sometimes untrue, sometimes true things. DeSantis is going to have to face that. That's the biggest risk for him.
Are Republicans blaming Trump, and what did you make of the New York Post likening Trump to Humpty Dumpty?
Trump is 100% getting blamed for this. His candidates did horribly in statewide elections in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and TBD Arizona. As for Murdoch, his empire has turned against Trump and made a kind of conscious decision to turn against him over the last six months. I think that reflects sort of a broadly held view among the Republican elite that hitching your wagon to the Trump train in 2024 is a mistake.
Do you think DeSantis has the charisma needed for a presidential bid?
Ron DeSantis is an extremely talented political actor. I don't expect he's going to attract a lot of crossover Democratic voters, but I think that when you win Florida by 20 percentage points, you don't do that just with Republicans. So I think he's clearly doing something right. I think he'll be a formidable presidential candidate should he run -- and the biggest threat to him being president in 2024 is probably the threat of Trump running as an independent and cleaving off 30% of the Republican voting base in the general election.
The risk in '24 for the Republicans is that Trump loses the primary and then takes his ball and goes home because he needs to keep his kind of political money-making operation going. He needs to be in the limelight, and that means running as a political candidate so you can do the kind of small-dollar fundraising he's good at. So the risk to DeSantis running, the biggest risk to the Republican Party in 2024, is that Trump loses in the primary, runs as an independent, and splits the Republican vote in the general, giving the election to the Democrats no matter what the state of the economy is.
Biden is saying he plans to run. How are Dems looking at 2024?
Independents broke for Democrats this election cycle. They broke strongly for Democrats in the key swing states where MAGA Republicans were up top of the ticket. Abortion referendums won basically everywhere. Pro-access referendums won basically everywhere they were on the ticket. Michigan Democrats had a very strong night, and they had a pro-choice, pro-access, female governor at the top of the ticket and a pro-access ballot referendum, and they had a very good night.
Democrats had a really good night across the Midwest, which I think shows a path forward for Democrats in 2024. Some of these Midwestern governors could be viable candidates should Joe Biden decide not to run. Biden's got to make a choice about his age. The good thing for him is that kind of having a good night here helps him within the party because it minimizes the narrative of this blowback against him, but it also gives him an opportunity to gracefully step down.
Which Dems do you believe could become viable candidates in 2024?
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and California Governor Gavin Newsom for sure. Whitmer and DeSantis had the two best nights on Tuesday. I think North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper will probably compete. Someone like Colorado Governor Jared Polis could be a candidate. So I think the Dems actually have a pretty good bench.
And the GOP ticket?
I think it's going to be DeSantis. DeSantis has the advantage of there being a lot of anti-Trump Republicans who are looking to consolidate the field quickly, and I think it's going to be hard for people like Mike Pompeo or Mike Pence to raise enough money to be competitive if DeSantis decides to get in the race.
- Will Trump’s 2024 candidacy sink Republicans? - GZERO Media ›
- Nikki Haley's in, but GOP primary remains Trump/DeSantis showdown - GZERO Media ›
- Podcast: What US midterms tell us about the state of US democracy - GZERO Media ›
- Republican identity crisis: Chris Christie vs. Donald Trump - GZERO Media ›
- Ian Explains: Trump's Republican competition - GZERO Media ›
- AI explosion, elections, and wars: What to expect in 2024 - GZERO Media ›
Georgia Senate candidates: U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock (D) and Herschel Walker (R)
What We’re Watching: US midterm cliffhanger, Russia’s Kherson retreat, ASEAN summit kickoff
Control of Congress hangs in the balance
“It was a good day for democracy and I think a good day for America,” President Joe Biden said Wednesday night about the midterm election results. The US House and Senate both remain in play after Republicans failed to deliver on their promise of giving Democrats a shellacking. While the GOP is still favored to take control of the lower chamber, incoming House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is likely to preside over a slim and dysfunctional GOP majority – hardly the wave he had anticipated. The GOP is still 11 seats short of clinching a majority in the House, and several competitive districts are still being counted. Control of the Senate, meanwhile, rests on three states – Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia – that remain too close to call. The race in the Peach State between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker will go to a run-off on Dec. 6 after neither reaped 50% of the vote. What’s more, measures to enshrine abortion rights were overwhelmingly backed by voters in states including Michigan, California, and Vermont. Even deep-red Kentucky refused to back an amendment denying the constitutional right to abortion, proving that curtailing abortion access is a losing issue for the GOP.
Russia suffers southern setback
In a major blow to Vladimir Putin’s “special operation” in Ukraine, Russia on Wednesday announced it was withdrawing its forces from Kherson city, capital of the strategic southern region of the same name. The retreat comes after weeks of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive meant specifically to retake the only regional capital Russia had taken over since invading in February. Russia’s military leaders, looking cheerful as always, spun the withdrawal as a measure to “preserve combat readiness,” but there’s no doubt that this was a big loss. Still, in retreating across to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, Russia still controls much of Kherson province, which borders on the Crimean Peninsula. Things seem to be going Kyiv’s way at the moment, but will Ukraine push further? Meanwhile, in positive news on Armageddon-watch, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has reportedly been in direct contact for months with his Kremlin counterparts in a bid to avert nuclear escalation.
Bongbong at ASEAN
The annual ASEAN summit, which brings together 10 Southeast Asian nations, gets underway in Cambodia on Thursday. As ever, the US-China rivalry will hang over the entire event. US President Joe Biden is set to attend a US-ASEAN summit on Saturday, where he’ll press to deepen ties in infrastructure, investment, and trade. China, meanwhile, is sending Foreign Minister Li Keqiang for a separate China-ASEAN summit, where Beijing will push to accelerate a free trade deal while dangling more Belt and Road infrastructure investment. Expect the regional powers to tread carefully between the global superpower and the regional heavyweight — China is by far the largest trade and investment partner for ASEAN members, but many are wary of its territorial encroachments on the South China Sea. One thing to watch is the speech of recently elected Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., who is set to address the delicate situation in Myanmar and call for a “code of conduct” in the South China Sea.Voters cast their ballots in the midterm election, in Detroit, Michigan.
US midterms: What we know and what we don’t
It was anything but a boring night in US politics. Votes are still being tallied in many states, but one thing is clear: There was no red wave.
Here’s what we know – and what we don’t – after a night spent watching breathless vote counting and downing too much coffee.
What we know:
A nightmare scenario for Trump. In Florida, incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis won in a blowout, setting up one helluva showdown with Donald Trump, who is expected to announce his third bid for the White House next week.
Trump appears to be feeling increasingly threatened by DeSantis, a rising Republican star, and has sought to intimidate the Floridian in recent days. Crucially, DeSantis won Miami Dade, Florida's most populous county, by more than 11 points, reflecting the Republican Party's inroads with Hispanic voters.
What’s more, many of the candidates that Trump backed – including Michigan's John Gibbs and Tudor Dixon, running for the House and governor respectively, as well as Pennsylvania gubernatorial contender Doug Mastriano – had very bad nights. Predicting that the riffraff of election deniers and provocateurs would not appeal to American voters, Dems – yes Dems – poured millions of dollars into propping up these GOP candidates in primary races, and the strategy seems to have paid off.
It was also a night of firsts. In Maryland, Democrat Wes Moore, a combat veteran who has never held public office, will become the state’s first Black governor. Meanwhile, Maura Healey, the attorney general of Massachusetts since 2014, won her gubernatorial race to become the state’s first female governor and the first openly lesbian governor in US history.
Was it a red sputter? Proving naysayers wrong, Dems outperformed in several close House races, including Virginia’s 7th district – largely seen as a national bellwether – where blue-dog Democrat Abigail Spanberger narrowly retained her seat. The Dems also flipped a House seat in an Ohio district that includes much of Cincinnati, while Republicans’ hopes of picking up Senate seats in New Hampshire and Colorado also proved futile. So far, the GOP has ousted just one Democratic incumbent in the House.
Crucially, after a grueling campaign, Democrat John Fetterman narrowly beat Trump-backed Republican Mehmet Oz to become Pennsylvania’s next senator.
What we don’t know:
John Mayer had it right when he asked Why Georgia. You’ll recall that special elections there in 2021 also left us on the edge of our seats waiting to find out which party would wrestle control of the US Senate. And again, Georgia has left us waiting.
While Democrat Stacey Abrams got trampled last night by incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp in the gubernatorial race, the Peach State’s Senate contest remains a nail-biter. Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker remain neck-and-neck and could go to a run-off next month if neither reaps 50% of the vote. That Abrams dramatically underperformed her fellow Democrat as a result of split-ticket voting is extremely surprising in an age where party fealty is also on the ballot.
States playing hard to get? The country is anxiously waiting to see what happens in Senate races in Arizona, Nevada, Alaska, and Wisconsin. Indeed, the race to get to 51 Senate seats is hot, with Dems currently holding 48 Senate seats to the GOP’s 47.
Though Republicans are still expected to gain control of the lower chamber (dozens of seats are still being counted), it won’t be by the margin that the party had been hoping for. But a win is a win, and a narrow victory in the House could still be enough for Republicans to stonewall Biden’s legislative agenda.
Now what? The dust will settle and we’ll soon know which party will control the House and Senate. But the race for 2024 is on, and we’ve seen before how Trump responds to personal defeat.
The last push for Pennsylvania
Welcome back to our new daily feature, Midterm Matters, where we pick a red-hot US midterms story and separate the signal (what you need to know) from the noise (what everyone is yelling about).
In the final stretch of the midterm race, Democrats and Republicans are pushing hard in Pennsylvania. On the blue side, President Joe Biden and his old boss Barack Obama will hold an event in Philadelphia on Saturday in a bid to get out the vote amid fears that turnout could lag, particularly among communities of color.
Meanwhile, on team red, former President Donald Trump will also make a stop in southwest Pennsylvania over the weekend to campaign for Senate candidate Mehmet Oz, as well as state Senator Doug Mastriano, who’s trailing Democrat Josh Shapiro in the race for governor.
Why Pennsylvania? Well, it’s one of just a few states – along with Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona – that will determine which party controls the Senate. Democrat John Fetterman currently leads Oz by a smidge, but Fetterman, whose health woes have become a central electoral issue, was leading his opponent by six percentage points just a month ago. Indeed, Democrats are rightfully concerned about their prospects in the state.
It’s also one of the very few opportunities Dems have this cycle to flip a Senate seat as opposed to playing defense.
In recent weeks, Obama, who remains extremely popular in the Democratic Party, has made stops in other crucial swing states like Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. We’ll know in just a few days whether it’ll make a difference …
Is US support for Ukraine waning?
Republicans and Democrats disagree on pretty much everything these days, yet they’ve shown remarkable unity to date on one issue: Ukraine.
But as midterm elections loom, the winds are changing in Washington, D.C., where an increasing number of legislators on both sides of the aisle – particularly Republicans – have warned that the days of unchecked handouts to Ukraine could soon be over.
That’s bad news for Ukraine, of course, but it’s also bad news for President Joe Biden, who has staked his dwindling reputation on being able to unite a Western alliance – including a politically divided US – against an aggressive Russia.
An awkward Democratic flip-flop. A group of 30 progressive Democrats on Monday sent a letter to the White House calling for dialogue with the Kremlin and for future aid to be contingent on a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. After a savage backlash from the Democratic Party, the group withdrew the statement, but the excuse they gave for the about-face was … unconvincing: They said it was an old letter drafted over the summer that was mistakenly released by staffers.
Amid mounting criticism, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, claimed that despite espousing a very similar view to some of her colleagues across the aisle, her crew’s take is different: “The proximity of these statements created the unfortunate appearance that Democrats … are somehow aligned with Republicans who seek to pull the plug on American support for President Zelensky and the Ukrainian forces,” she said.
The GOP game plan. Though this awkward flip-flop is the last thing Biden needs ahead of Nov. 8, schisms within the Democratic Party on Ukraine policy will be less consequential in a post-midterm world, in which Republicans are slated to take control of the House of Representatives and perhaps the Senate. Indeed, all funding decisions are regulated by the House’s powerful Appropriations Committee (with support from Senate colleagues) – so whoever controls the lower chamber holds the power of the purse.
And there are signs that things will indeed be different under a GOP-led Congress. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – who is all but assured to take over as House speaker in January and is likely trying to gain the support of his caucus – recently said that the days of giving a “blank check” to Ukraine are over.
Though McCarthy has himself been supportive of high levels of military and economic support for Ukraine in recent months, this approach is consistent with those espoused by the ragtag of election-denying and isolationist Republicans running for House seats next month. Tellingly, when asked about the prospects of sending more packages of similar value (Congress has so far greenlit a whopping $65 billion for Ukraine), McCarthy said “they [his GOP colleagues] just won’t do it.”
Will Biden front load? To date, the lion’s share of US support for Ukraine has been distributed through Congressional appropriations, just as the founding fathers intended. But if the GOP wins the House and/or Senate – and slashes the Ukraine budget – Biden still has options.
First, there are indications that the White House will try and secure a massive aid package – worth up to $50 billion – for Ukraine before the new Republican cohort takes office in January. This would be almost equal to the entire amount Washington has sent Kyiv over the past eight months. Importantly, there are reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican stalwart and pro-Ukraine crusader, has Biden’s back on this.
Moreover, Biden could also use a stopgap known as the Lend-Lease Act of 2022, a bill passed earlier this year that allows the White House to lease military hardware to Ukraine and Eastern Europe through the end of the 2023 fiscal year. This would allow Kyiv to continue accessing the equipment it needs to wage a powerful defense, while also sending a message to President Vladimir Putin that the US isn’t backing down in its support for Ukraine. (Irony alert: Lend-lease isn’t new. During World War II, the US armed the Soviet Union under this program, with the Soviets – and then the Russian Federation – continuing to pay back the loan well after the Cold War.)
For now, Americans across the aisle continue to support the government's efforts to arm Ukraine. But as gas and food prices remain sky-high throughout the winter, that could change. Everyone’s pain threshold has limits.
Don't miss: Eurasia Group's lead US politics analyst Jon Lieber weighs in on whether America's support for Ukraine is softening.
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