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The future of modern warfare
Technology in Ukraine is transforming the battlefield in real time. How will it change the US national security strategy? And could what's happening in Ukraine shift China’s President Xi Jinping’s future plans in Taiwan? Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stravridis joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about how technology is creating a “new triad” of warfare, i.e., unmanned systems, cyber and artificial intelligence, and special forces.
Modern conflict no longer requires huge standing armies to fight effectively; just look at Ukraine’s success in the Black Sea. Smaller militaries are increasingly using drones, satellites, and unmanned systems against larger armies. Stavridis says Taiwan is a “resistance fighter’s dream” because of its geography and resources. Plus, it manufactures about half of the world’s computer chips, which China relies on for its technology infrastructure. But Stavridis also warns the same technology is empowering malefactors and terrorist groups, creating dangerous asymmetrical warfare.
“The US will continue to be the preeminent nation at projecting power. China will make a play to do it. Russia, the lights are going to go out,” the Admiral says, “But it’s acts of terrorism and the ability to use weapons of mass disruption, that’s what you need to worry about.”
For more on technology and the transformation of war, check out Admiral Stavridis’ book "2054: A Novel". His newest book, "The Restless Wave", a historical novel about the rise of new technology in the Pacific during WWII, is out October 8.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead armies around the world to shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
UFOs must be investigated, says former astronaut Sen. Mark Kelly
Is there life on Mars? When David Bowie asked that question half a century ago, he was speaking for more of us than just Ziggy Stardust. Today, the prospect of intelligent alien life in our universe continues to tantalize stargazers and lawmakers alike. In a wide-ranging interview on the future of the US Space program, Arizona Senator and former NASA astronaut Mark Kelly does not impatiently snicker at the mention of extraterrestrial life. Far from it. In fact, he says, we owe it to the brave military personnel who have seen inexplicable occurrences to investigate them as intensely as possible.
"I've seen some compelling testimony from navy fighter pilots who, in one case, in a position of leadership in a squadron have seen something very compelling. It's our obligation on the Armed Services Committee, to investigate it and put more resources behind studying this kind of phenomena."
Kelly, whose Senate office boasts a green inflatable alien mascot, is skeptical that intelligent life has visited us so far. But he also is smart enough to never say never. "I get these questions all the time. People think as I've been to space, maybe I have this special insight, or maybe I've seen something. While I've spent time orbiting the earth, I haven't."
Watch full episode: Mark Kelly on the new space race
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
As the Arctic melts, geopolitics heats up
As climate change warms the planet, the Arctic Circle ice cap will continue to melt. Beyond the ecological implications, a melting Arctic will open up new opportunities for resource extraction, trade routes, and….military operations. Few nations are more keenly aware of this than the United States and its adversaries, Russia, China, and North Korea.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits with Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy to talk about how the United States will ensure that its economic and geopolitical interests continue to be met as the Arctic melts. And the threat goes beyond Russia. “China's flexing its muscles in the Bering Strait in the Arctic,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer. “ That's changing as well. So I think as a result of that, you're going to see, I hope to see a different approach by Washington involving our armed forces in Alaska.
Such ramp-ups cannot come a moment too soon, Dunleavy says, since the United States is outmatched when it comes to its presence of the crucial icebreaker ships needed to navigate the arctic passages. “I think what's going to happen is you're probably going to see more discussions on increased navy activity in Alaska,” Dunleavy tells Bremmer, “as well as the need for more icebreakers to joint patrols with our Canadian friends to the East.”
Watch full episode: As the Arctic melts, Alaska's importance grows
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don''t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
French President Emmanuel Macron and President of the European Commission (EU) Ursula von der Leyen meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, on April 6, 2023
Hard Numbers: Xi visits Europe, Gaza pier costs skyrocket, Philippines gets too hot for school, Cat survives return flight
320 million: The cost of a pier the US military is building on the Gazan coast has risen to at least $320 million. The purpose of the project is to facilitate the delivery of more humanitarian aid to the besieged strip, as Israel continues to restrict aid trucks arriving by land. The UN warned in March that famine was imminent in the enclave of more than two million people.
2: On Sunday, the Philippines closed schools nationwide for two days amid an unprecedented heatwave. With temperatures nearing 100 degrees Fahrenheit and heat indices (a combination of heat and humidity measures that reflects the temperature actually felt by the body) touching a record 113 degrees, authorities there took action out of concern for the health of their citizens and their power grids alike.
6: Equipped with its standard-issue nine lives and a microchip, a Utah-based cat somehow survived six entire days after finding its way into an Amazon return package that its owner unwittingly mailed to California. “Galeana loves boxes,” said the cat’s owner, who was contacted after an Amazon worker discovered the accidental feline stowaway and took it to a vet who scanned its tracking microchip.A warning sign alerts visitors of the extreme heat dangers at Badwater Basin, the lowest point in North America at 279 feet below sea level, in Death Valley National Park, California, U.S. August 17, 2020.
Hard Numbers: Earth sets gloomy climate record, China’s economy deflates, US Marines found dead, Nigeria faces off with Ivory Coast
15: While much of the world is suffering under the weight of inflation, China is battling deflation. Prices in the country have fallen to their lowest level in 15 years. China’s consumer price index fell 0.8% year-over-year in January, as Beijing struggles to rebound from a tanking stock market, collapsing foreign investment, declining exports, and its property sector in freefall.
5: Five US Marines were confirmed dead in California on Thursday, after the helicopter they were in crashed not far from San Diego early Wednesday during a routine training flight. President Joe Biden said he and first lady Jill Biden are “heartbroken” and extended their “deepest condolences to their families, their squadron, and the US Marine Corps.”
7,000,000: Nigeria will face off against host nation Ivory Coast in the Africa Cup of Nations final on Sunday. Apart from being crowned the champions of Africa’s most prestigious soccer tournament, the winning team takes home $7 million.
US-Iran tensions complicate Biden's Middle East strategy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week. We are still very much focused on the Middle East. That is the top priority. Tony Blinken, Secretary of State, for his fifth trip to the Gulf since October 7th, those horrible terrorist attacks, Ukraine very far down the priority list compared to the engagement the Middle East is presently getting. It certainly feels that way. But that's what we're focusing on.
And the big issue is the American military response to that nightmare scenario that came to pass when US servicemen and women, dozens injured, three killed in Iranian proxy attacks on the Jordan-Syria border. The United States had to respond militarily, did respond militarily, but they also did not want to precipitate an Iranian war with the United States. So they tried to have their way on both sides of the equation and probably end up getting nothing that they want. What do I mean by that? Well, the United States did attack direct Iranian military assets, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps military capabilities on the ground in Syria and Iraq, but also telegraphed that very clearly, very publicly, for about five days before they started the attacks, which meant that proxy leaders and most importantly, Iranian leaders were able to get out of Dodge and potentially protect the most sensitive equipment information from those US strikes.
That meant that the Americans got to show that they would take significant military action, but also did not precipitate an Iranian military response. We aren't going to see war right now between the US and Iran, but we also aren't going to see deterrence by the Iranian proxies or by the Iranians in continuing to engage in strikes in civilian tanker traffic through the Red Sea or against Americans on the ground in the region.
Now, if it doesn't resolve any of that conflict that continues to get worse, what does it resolve? Well, it continues to give the Americans a little bit of time, maybe to get a temporary cease-fire in Gaza. That's really where the effort is right now, particularly being engaged with Qatar in coordinating with the Israelis and with Hamas. The hope is that in the next week or two, you get a month of committed cease-fire from the Israelis and you get large numbers of remaining hostages being held by Hamas released to Israel.
Now, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the war cabinet are nowhere close to succeeding in their war on the ground against Hamas. And that means they have months minimum before they're willing to think about wrapping up that conflict, irrespective of all the international pressure. So what does a month accomplish? While the hope is that a month accomplishes movement towards a Saudi-Israel peace deal where the Americans would proactively recognize a Palestinian state together with the UK and others. The Israeli war cabinet would outline the potential for such a political recognition while security would be provided by somebody else. Don't have to have your own security forces to have your own state, and nobody says that's a requirement. Would it be provided by the Israelis? Well, that wouldn't be acceptable, though. They could have a buffer zone perhaps, would need to be worked out with the Gulf allies, with Egypt, with Jordan. Can that be done in a month? In terms of sticking the landing, that's about the highest degree of difficulty you'd see in gymnastics. And certainly I would take the under in terms of expectations of a peace deal here.
But does Biden feel like he has any better alternatives at this point? And the answer to that is no. Meanwhile, he's being squeezed by the Republicans at home who are pushing for more aid for Israel, not linked to anything. And he's getting squeezed by the progressives that are his own Democratic supporters that are more aligned towards the Palestinians than they are Israel. This is feeling like a no win situation for Biden. And so if he can get a cease-fire and get a few weeks, engage diplomatically, see what shakes loose. Still at the end of the day, there are far more actors around this war, both in Gaza and also more broadly in the Middle East, that are interested in finding ways not to have a lasting cease fire than to see a peace agreement work out. That's true certainly for Hamas. It's true certainly for Netanyahu. It's also true for the Iranian government and the so-called axis of resistance.
And for all of those reasons, I fear that we are still heading for further escalation as opposed to a window that would end this war. Really tough for Biden in an election year, really tough for those in the Middle East living with this at any time.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
US-Iran tensions escalate after deadly drone attack
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take to kick off your week right in midtown Manhattan, New York City. And the Middle East war continuing to expand as we have been convinced it would. This was this weekend, really the nightmare scenario for the Americans that given all of the Iranian proxy attacks against shipping and against US troops in the region, but eventually they would get through and kill some.
And that is exactly what happened. Three American servicemen killed, dozens injured, and now the Americans have to respond. That response will almost certainly be against Iranian forces to some degree directly. Whether or not that means hitting Iranian territory, that's an open question. But even though the Iranian government denied it, the United States has been very clear, “these are Iran supported attacks.”And while I'm fairly comfortable saying that the Iranians didn't likely order these attacks directly, they're certainly comfortable with the fact that they're going on. They're providing real time intelligence to the groups. They're providing real time weapons to the groups. So it's not like they had nothing to do with it.
Now, the United States doesn't want war with Iran, you know, no holds barred across the region. The Iranians don't want war with the US. But that doesn't mean war is not going to happen. And we're certainly taking a step closer to that right now. Will American strikes be sufficient to stop Iranian proxies from hitting the United States? That's very hard to imagine. It might be uncomfortable with it, but I can't see the Iranians cutting off all of these groups just on the basis of the likely American strikes that are coming next, which means even though we're escalating, we're still not yet at sort of a place where anyone is panicking enough to start restraining and reining in the continued escalation that we're seeing.
The other side of this is we do see the United States working very hard with Qatar and the Israelis to try to facilitate a breakthrough on the hostages. And the Israelis are willing to engage in ways that they were not, even a couple of weeks ago, willing to take a deal that would not be as attractive for them. For example, a longer ceasefire in the strikes in Gaza in return for the hostages being released. In part, the Hamas has been unwilling to engage and has been unwilling to give very much. But that could change if the Iranian government now starts pressing them hard. And that is where we could see a bit of a breakthrough, especially if the United States response is serious to what we've just seen over the weekend.
So are we going to see the Iranians stopping support of the proxies in the region, stopping the attacks? No. But might we see a temporary ceasefire and a breakthrough on the hostage side? That looks more likely to me in the coming days and weeks than it was last week. So, you know, it's dangerous environment. We're continuing to see escalation, but there's certainly lots of moving pieces and not everybody wants to see war.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.