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A woman uses a phone next to a fighter of the ruling Syrian body, after members of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in the Damascus old city, Syria, December 12, 2024.
Trump may follow Biden's line on Syria
On Saturday, not long after Syrian dictator Bashar Assad fled to Russia, Donald Trumpwrote — in all caps — that the United States should stay out of Syria: “This is not our fight,” he wrote. “Let it play out. Do not get involved.”
Trump, Vice-President-elect JD Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee as Director of National Intelligence, are all skeptical of American military involvement in the Middle East. But experts think the next US administration will end up taking a position similar to the one taken by President Joe Biden, mostly because it is in the interest of the United States to prevent Syria from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists.
Successful rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Golani is a former al-Qaida fighter, but he has signaled that he has no interest in transnational terrorism and has sought to give assurances to Druze, Christians, and Alawite religious minorities that the new government of Syria will respect their rights.
Secretary of State Antony Blinkenhas offered to recognize Golani’s new government if he lives up to his promises. At the same time, the US military has been carrying out airstrikes against remnants of the Islamic State terrorist group. Two congressmen have written to Blinken asking him to ease US sanctions on Syria to give the new government a chance to rebuild the economy.
Experts think that although Trump might like to wash his hands of the whole country, American interests will likely require the US government to maintain troops in Syria, at least in the short term. He ordered the withdrawal of US troops from the region during his first term and then reversed his decision when confronted by the facts on the ground.
Hot topics at the IMF-World Bank meetings
Delegates at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings have been giving rosy outlooks to the press while the cameras are rolling, but GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick heard a different story in private settings. He told Tony Maciulis that the global outlook depends heavily on US policy continuity — which is highly unlikely under a second Trump administration — and successful efforts in China to revive its own floundering economy.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Delegates are eager to point to success stories, including in Ukraine and Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting how the world’s leading development banks can make a real impact on some of the most fragile economies and vulnerable populations.
Watch to learn more about what Matt heard on the ground.
Watch more from Global Stage.
Ukraine: Biggest foreign policy test for the Biden administration
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares his perspective on Biden's strategy on the Ukraine crisis.
How has Biden's response to the Ukraine crisis been so far?
Well, Ukraine is emerging as a major foreign policy test for the Biden administration who came into office seeming to want to set the Russia issue aside so they could focus on US policy in Asia. The Biden administration wants a diplomatic response because diplomacy is probably all they have. In public opinion polling, Americans say they do not want to get involved militarily in Ukraine, even if Russian invades, but near majority of Americans say they're not following the issue closely either, which means many of them could probably be convinced one way or the other. The White House efforts to deterrence have included a clever play to foil Russia's invasion plans by releasing intelligence about misinformation President Putin was planning on releasing as a pretext for invasion.
But one thing they have not yet done are sanctions, which members of Congress are pushing for to do in advance of a Russian invasion. If Putin invades, sanctions are likely to come very fast for Russian state-owned banks, individuals involved in the invasion, and against anyone globally for trading in new Russian debt. This will cut off a number of critical financial lifelines for the Russians. It'll have significant cost for the West, however, as it could dramatically increase energy prices and potentially cut off supplies for Western European countries that rely on Russian gas.
Politically, if the Biden administration's unable to stop an invasion, it will contribute to a narrative that undermines the foreign policy credibility that Biden ran on in 2020, and will be another major drag on Biden's approval ratings, which have already suffered due to high inflation and the ongoing pandemic.
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