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US and Russian leaders gather in Riyadh.
Saudis host US-Russia talks, Europe holds emergency meeting on Ukraine
Before Tuesday’s meeting in Saudi Arabia between US and Russian officials to discuss the war in Ukraine and business dealings between the countries, French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency meeting in Paris of European leaders on Monday to discuss Ukraine. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited to Tuesday’s talks in Riyadh – and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskywas not even formally advised discussions were taking place.
What did European leaders agree on? The gathering wrapped Monday evening with a tweet by European Commission president Ursula von Leyen that “Ukraine deserves peace through strength” – but without any consensus about what that peace would look like. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed willingness to contribute peacekeeping troops, contingent upon a US security guarantee, but Polish President Donald Tusk ruled out sending Polish troops before the meeting even began. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called a discussion of peacekeepers “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” while the war is ongoing. Scholz also opposed any agreements being made without European or Ukrainian involvement.
What might a deal look like? “It is not yet clear what the US and Russia will be able to agree to or even what the agenda will look like” in Tuesday’s meeting, says Eurasia Group analyst Alex Brideau. “Russian officials have indicated they will be pushing for a broader deal that includes ending the Ukraine war on their terms, along with the resolution of a number of other outstanding security-related grievances. Trump’s main declared goal is to end the war quickly.”
We do know that while the Trump administration doesn’t want the Europeans at the table, it expects Europe to shoulder some of Ukraine’s support. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US could reduce the number of troops in Europe as part of the deal with Moscow and that any Ukraine peacekeeping force should lack the protection of NATO’s Article 5. He also signaled that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders would not happen – meaning that a sixth of Ukraine’s territory could be ceded to Russia.
But that doesn’t mean that Ukraine or Europe will agree to anything the US or Russia negotiate. “Zelensky has made clear he will not accept a deal reached without Ukraine and Europe’s participation,” says Brideau. “He and European leaders will, therefore, be working to ensure that Trump brings them into the discussions and takes their views into account,” noting that they view transatlantic unity as key to the future of any peace deal.
After Kazakhstan, how will Russia escalate in Ukraine?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hey everybody, Ian Bremmer here and kicking off the week with some excitement in Kazakhstan and the beginning of the most important bilateral negotiations the US is going to have in some time with the Russians.
First I'll start off on Kazakhstan. It was a surprise to everyone, certainly the Kremlin to find out that suddenly what had started as worker demonstrations that got violent very fast, because fuel prices went up significantly with the Kazakh government, suddenly became nationwide and very violent. And the special forces, the interior forces were basically standing aside. Looks like this... Yes, there's a lot of anger with corruption. There's a lot of anger with a state that's unresponsive to the economic needs of its people. But there was also major elite infighting and Nazarbayev, the former president, the still leader of the Kazakh people, got the short end of the stick. Tried to make a move against Tokayev, failed. His head of intelligence has been removed and arrested. Dozens of Nazarbayev connected oligarchs have fled the country.
And what's most interesting is the Russian government having had no idea that any of this was likely to happen. Was requested by President Tokayev to send troops and they did within 24 hours. And 3,000 Russian peacekeepers, paratroopers and others, and once they showed up to provide support and secure key facilities, suddenly the members of this security forces knew that Tokayev was going to win. It became very violent, very brutal. It looks like some 200 people have died. Thousands have been arrested, but this is the end of the story. So Nazarbayev is basically out, Tokayev is in charge. The Russians have more influence than before though, Kazakhstan's always leaned in that direction. And a message has been sent very strongly to Belarus and to the West. That the Russians are prepared to do whatever is necessary to ensure that they exert dominion over countries and governments that they think are within their sphere of influence.
That of course leads to the big question, which is, well, what about Ukraine? Because of course, Ukraine has an independently elected government that is very aligned to the West. They want to join NATO. They'd like to join the European Union. Neither of those two things are really on offer, but the population is massively anti-Russian, only more so because of the 2014 annexation of Crimea and invasion into Southeast Ukraine. The negotiations have gone nowhere yet. I would say it is on balance slightly better than not, because the Russians and the Americans both agree they'd like more talks in the near future. More talking means that the Russians aren't about to escalate in the immediate future. But the Russians continue to say that this is urgent, decisions have to be made quickly and that nothing has been provided so far from the Americans that would lead the Russians to believe that they don't need to escalate.
The big question is what is that escalation? In the West, there's been a lot of concern that the Russians are going to invade and take further Ukrainian territory. If they do that, of course, then you'll have a collective stronger response from the US and EU, from the US and its NATO allies, which doesn't help the Russians at all. So I think the real issue here is are the Russians prepared to escalate in ways that are short of invasion, but have the potential to drive apart the Americans and the Europeans. And as the Russians say that that is something they are credibly able to do, do the Americans in response allies or without even prepared to provide any level of concession to the Russians that would allow them both face saving and the ability to back down, the willingness to back down? And that right now is a very open question.
So still very big uncertainty and indeed instability over what the Russians are likely to do in Ukraine vis-a-vis the Americans and the Europeans. And hard for the Americans to respond effectively. But at least they're still talking. The US Russia talks that we just had are by far the most important, the NATO talks aren't going to go very well, but that's not where the action is really happening. At least not from Moscow's perspective. And they're the ones that are doing the escalating. What will be most interesting, we see when is the next Putin-Biden conversation. I expect that's going to be announced in short order and more bilaterals at a high level between Moscow and Washington.
That's it for me. Hope everyone is real good. Talk to you soon.
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