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What We’re Watching: Biden’s omicron message, Ukraine invasion rumblings, Haitian migrants sue US, China hearts US natural gas
Biden’s omicron message to America. It’s fair to assume that many Americans were anxious to hear what President Biden had to say at a presser Tuesday about the omicron variant ripping through US cities. So what did the commander-in-chief tell the huddling masses? First, he stuck to the White House script, reiterating that vaccinations, boosters, and masks are crucial to minimizing risk from omicron. Second, he reassured parents that schools will stay open despite the surge. There’s other good stuff in the works too: 1,000 military personnel will be deployed to help strained hospitals, and the government will purchase half a billion COVID tests that Americans will be able to order to their homes for free. That’s great, but this scheme won’t be ramped up until January, several weeks into a surge that many analysts say was highly predictable and that the White House should have prepared for. Current testing failures have been particularly problematic in hard-hit New York City, where cases have risen 80 percent in two weeks. But the Biden administration has still failed to offer guidance for 15 million Americans who received an initial single-dose Johnson & Johnson shot, which scientists say doesn’t offer much protection against omicron. Biden’s message was clear: this isn’t March 2020, go celebrate the holidays with your families. But did he convince millions of very worried Americans?
US-Russia standoff: Rattling or Rolling? Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that if NATO continues to be “obviously aggressive” in Ukraine, the Kremlin would respond with unspecified “military-technical means,” stressing that Russia’s sovereignty is at stake. On the same day, his Defense Minister warned that the US was planning a false flag chemical weapons attack in Ukraine. For a while now, Russian state TV has been riling up nationalist sentiment in evening news monologues. That all seems bad… And yet it seems that beneath the headline fury, diplomacy is slowly wheeling onwards. The US and Russia are set for bilateral talks in January, and there will be NATO-Russia and Russia-EU engagements alongside that. Those talks will focus on what, precisely, Putin is doing with the 100,000 troops he’s massed along the Ukrainian border, and whether there is any agreement to be teased out on the basis of the Kremlin’s recently-released list of maximalist demands from NATO. Those demands would all but turn back the clock to 1997, before NATO expanded into the former Soviet sphere, and deny the right of countries in Eastern Europe to join the alliance if they wish. Those are non-starters for the alliance, but the demands seem to have been an opening position rather than a final one. The US and EU are still threatening to impose crippling economic and financial sanctions on Russia if Moscow does decide to invade Ukraine again. This story will be a big one in January. Hopefully no holiday surprises.
Haitian asylum-seekers vs US government. You might recall these confronting images of US border agents on horses in the Texas border town of Del Rao, using their reins as whips to corral Black migrants trying to enter the US from Mexico. Now a group of Haitian asylum-seekers has filed a lawsuit against the US government for poor treatment and denial of due process, accusing the Biden administration of unfairly keeping in place a Trump-era policy of expelling most migrants on elastic public health grounds. The plaintiffs also say they weren’t given enough food and water while in the US’ care. The accusers, who were deported, are requesting that they be allowed to stay in the US while their applications are processed. Central American migrants have been arriving at the US southern border in record numbers this year because of pandemic-related economic hardships – as have Haitians who are trying to flee a collapsing state. Immigration has been a lightning-rod issue for President Biden during his first year: while most Americans support his tough-on-border approach, it has alienated progressives, a key part of his broad constituency.
China bullish on American natural gas. Even though the US and China continue to clash over broader trade issues, Chinese energy giants are buying a lot of liquified natural gas from America lately. Since October, Chinese energy firms have signed seven big deals to purchase LNG from US suppliers, suggesting that energy is another area — apart from climate — where the world's two largest economies can still scratch each other's back. (The US will next year become the world's top LNG exporter, while China is expected to surpass Japan as the number one importer by the end of the decade.) What's more, Chinese companies are purchasing American LNG at a 25-percent premium due to China’s retaliatory tariffs against US natural gas. Still, US Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants to restrict LNG exports to curb rising natural gas prices in the US. American natural gas execs, for their part, warn that'll be bad for the climate because many countries are looking to replace coal-fired electricity plants with plants powered by natural gas. The latter emit less carbon dioxide than burning coal, but leak methane, which warms the planet way faster.US President Joe Biden and Russia's President Vladimir Putin meet for talks at the Villa La Grange.
What We're Watching: Biden-Putin summit, North Korea's food crisis, Tunisian constitutional reform
No fireworks in Geneva: Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden sat together for four hours on Wednesday, and as we anticipated in Signal, both leaders agreed to continue to cooperate where they can and to continue to pursue their national interests, as they see them. They're now expected to work together on nuclear disarmament. That's good, since these two countries still account for most of the world's atomic weapons. They're also open to exchanging prisoners, a welcome development. But more importantly, Biden and Putin set down their red lines: for the US it's the critical infrastructure that should be off-limits from hackers, and for Russia it's further expansion of NATO. US sanctions will remain in place. If the summit was a "success," it's only because expectations were low. Curb your enthusiasm indeed. For now, we'll be watching to see whether US-Russia ties enter a period, however brief, of the stable and predictable relations Biden says he wants, or if some new controversy triggers a new war of words.
North Korea has a food crisis: Kim Jong Un admits North Korea faces a "tense" food shortage problem. That warning is especially worrisome in North Korea, where it is highly unusual for the regime to report bad news — especially coming from the usually hardy Kim Jong Un. State media blames the current food crisis on a series of floods that destroyed crops, China's border closure over COVID, and crippling international sanctions. While the country's economy is in chronic bad shape, any mention of food shortages is a clear reason for alarm, given that a severe famine wiped out almost 20 percent of the population in the 1990s. UN food agencies believe the situation is not yet dire, but they warn North Korea may experience "a harsh lean period" by the fall if it doesn't get imports or aid soon. To address the crisis, Kim has ordered all state resources to be directed to farming. Interestingly, this time even the famously chubby Supreme Leader himself could be feeling the pinch: in recent photos he appears to have lost a lot of weight, though observers say it's likely a result of a voluntary diet to improve his (reportedly) poor health.
Constitutional do-over in Tunisia? Ten years after the Arab Spring revolution that paved the way for democracy and a new constitution in Tunisia, President Kais Saied has called for a debate on how to rework the country's political system. Tunisia has been mired in political deadlock for months as Saied and Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi squabble over who has what powers, including important portfolios like internal security. The current constitution, approved in 2014, created a mixed presidential-parliamentary system that has contributed to the confusion. Tunisia is the only country where the Arab Spring led to democracy, but the call to tweak the basic structures of that system comes at a dicey time: the North African country is struggling with economic malaise, coronavirus, and a recent surge of protests over police brutality.
The small aims of the big Putin-Biden summit
Joe Biden is meeting with Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, and the first thing to say about that is: temper your expectations.
US-Russia relations are at their worst point since the end of the Cold War and perhaps even before that. The US has imposed dozens of economic sanctions on Russia over election meddling, human rights abuses, and the illegal annexation of Crimea.
On a personal level, it's worse: Ronald Reagan may not have fully trusted the Soviets, but he never said — as Biden has done of Putin — that Mikhail Gorbachev was a murderer with no soul. At least not publicly.
The relationship is strained over many things, but they boil down to one big thing: the US still sees itself as a global superpower and Russia is unwilling to accept second-fiddle status.
So while the US considers Moscow a menace — meddling in elections, invading countries in Europe, backing dictators around the world — Moscow sees the US as an arrogant colossus, encroaching on Russia's sphere of influence, waging endless destabilizing wars in the Middle East, and lecturing the world about democracy from a badly broken pedestal of its own.
In other words, there are deep structural problems in the US-Russian relationship, and there's little the two presidents can do to change that with one sit-down in Geneva.
Still, Biden has said he wants to lay the groundwork for a "stable and predictable" relationship. So to get a sense of what we might expect, I asked Alex Brideau, the lead Russia expert at Eurasia Group, our parent company. Here's a lightly edited rundown of what he said.
What are the key points of disagreement?
Plenty, and there are no easy fixes. Biden will almost certainly bring up the recent ransomware attacks on the Colonial Pipeline and the meat processor JBS. The US says they were carried out by criminal groups in Russia and blames the Kremlin for not doing enough to stop them. Biden also wants to send a strong message to Putin about Russian meddling in US elections and will likely raise the treatment of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Putin will of course disregard this as US interference in Russia's internal affairs.
Putin will have demands of his own, in particular about the seven-year-long conflict between Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists in Eastern Ukraine, which has already claimed more than 14,000 lives. Putin, who denies Russian involvement, wants Biden to lean on the Ukrainian government to negotiate directly with the separatists to jumpstart a political reconciliation with them. Biden, however, supports the Ukrainian position that Russia must negotiate with Kyiv and make security concessions before a political settlement.
And where exactly can Biden and Putin cooperate?
There aren't many areas, but there are some important ones. Both leaders want progress on nuclear arms control. At the beginning of Biden's term they renewed the New START treaty for five years, rescuing the last major US-Russia strategic arms control pact from oblivion. They also see eye-to-eye on reviving the Iran nuclear deal, where Russia-US talks seem to be going very well. Lastly, they may discuss use of the Arctic, where despite some border disputes, they have an interest in avoiding escalation, and each wants to limit Chinese influence in the region.
How is the meeting perceived in Washington and Moscow?
Washington on the whole is fairly hawkish toward Russia. And Biden's decision to meet with Putin has faced skepticism from members of Congress who don't see much upside.
Russian officials meanwhile have little expectation that US economic sanctions against Russia — which came in response to US election interference, Ukraine, and the poisoning of Russian dissidents — will be eased any time soon. But there is hope that the summit could bring the temperature down a bit, by engaging on issues of common concern, thereby lowering the likelihood of another round of punishment from Washington.
The big takeaway: As Brideau's answers show, this summit isn't going to produce any breakthroughs — because it's not meant to. At best, it'll open a pathway toward a somewhat more "businesslike relationship" between two countries that are deeply at odds.
Stable and predictable? The relationship already is. It's just that it's stabley and predictably bad. Any improvement over that will be a win for both sides at Geneva.
- Biden-Putin summit: US wants predictability; G7's strong COVID ... ›
- Biden meets Putin: Much to discuss, little chance of progress ... ›
- Biden likely to push Putin on cybersecurity in Geneva meeting ... ›
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- Ukraine: Biggest foreign policy test for the Biden administration - GZERO Media ›
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Biden likely to push Putin on cybersecurity in Geneva meeting
Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford's Cyber Policy Center, Eurasia Group senior advisor and former MEP, discusses trends in big tech, privacy protection and cyberspace:
When President Biden and President Putin meet, will cybersecurity will be a key issue that they discuss?
Now, I'm sure that there will be many thorny issues on the table. But after American fingers pointed to Russia and hold it responsible for the SolarWinds hack, it's likely. Criminals in Russia were also not hindered when they held the Colonial Pipeline Company ransom through a ransomware attack. And really, when journalists and opposition leaders cannot speak a single critical word without being caught, how come cybercriminals can act with impunity in Russia? So the need for prevention and accountability really is significant. And I hope the President Biden can push and persuade Putin to change the confrontational and aggressive course that he is on.
A Republican Congressman’s take on the "Russia threat”
What is Russia's current threat level to the US? US Congressman Mike Waltz (R-FL), thinks that the Russian government and other hardline regimes "smell weakness in Washington right now" and that the Biden administration's stance isn't tough enough. Waltz, who served as an advisor to George W. Bush, tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World that his recommended policy approach to Russia would be "Lethal aid to Ukraine. I think that's the only thing that the Russians will respond to." Watch the full conversation on GZERO World, airing on US public television starting April 23.
Watch the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode.
- Navalny's health and US-Russia tensions - GZERO Media ›
- SolarWinds hack a wake-up call to the tech sector - GZERO Media ›
- Russia will withdraw forces from Ukraine but Putin reveals nothing ... ›
- Putin's next move won't be a Baltic invasion that could unify NATO ... ›
- Who would Putin vote for? - GZERO Media ›
Navalny's health and US-Russia tensions
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here, kicking off your beautiful spring week from New York City. A little Quick Take. I thought I'd talk today about Russia, going to be in the news this week. Putin doesn't like it when they're out of the news for too long, certainly plenty going on between the US and Russia right now.
I'd say, first of all, to start off, the relationship is in the toilet. We know this. It is the worst it's been since the early '80s. That was true even under Trump. Trump and Putin personally had a pretty good relationship, but Trump wasn't able to get anything really done for the Russians, because both the Republicans in Congress, key members of cabinet under Trump, massive amount of constraints on what Trump could actually do, whether it's trying to bring Russia back into the G7 or recognize Crimea as a part of Russia, or remove or reduce sanctions. None of that actually got done. In fact, the relationship deteriorated over the four years.
But now we've got Biden and the focus is of course, more on human rights. The focus is more on climate change, which means that Russia as a massive energy exporter and particularly in terms of their influence on Eastern Europe and Western Europe on the downstream for gas delivery, for example, something that Biden is much more focused on. So a lot more pressure on the Russians, and the Russians don't care. Their willingness to hit back and show that the Americans are not willing to take any significant risks to constrain the Russians is also fairly significant. And this is playing out in a number of ways.
And perhaps most importantly, for the media this week, will be Alexei Navalny. He has been in jail. He's still very much incarcerated, but has just in the last few hours, been moved to a hospital. Some doctors who have not been able to see him directly say that his health is in danger, that he could potentially die. I have no way of knowing whether that's true or not, but we do know the Russians tried, indeed did poison him before and could have killed him but did not because of some quick thinking medical response. And that, that means that their willingness to assassinate him certainly is there.
Now the consequences, they say ... Jake Sullivan, the national security advisor of Biden says that there will be consequences if Navalny dies in Russian custody. I think the consequences there would be, would be additional sanctions. But they probably wouldn't be all that great, certainly not more than the Russians would expect or be willing to tolerate. What's more interesting perhaps is that over the course of the next couple of days, Navalny's supporters are organizing nationwide demonstrations. They were planning on holding off until the summer, but they pushed it up, because of the health decline. And the date of this, on Wednesday, coincides with the date of Putin's annual State of the Union speech, which goes on for hours. And he takes all of these questions from the media, and he shows what a wonderful guy he is, and how he can talk about just about anything, because he, of course, is the absolute authority in Russia, and nothing he says can or will be used against him. He's not going to like a backdrop of big demonstrations, which means the potential for large scale arrests and violent repression is pretty high. That is going to indeed continue to worsen the relationship between the two countries as well as Russia and the Europeans. But I still don't think this is going to move the needle very much.
A couple of points here, one, all of the sanctions that the US have put against the Russians so far have paled in terms of response to Navalny, compared to what the US did to the Saudis following the Khashoggi assassination. There, you had 76 members of the Saudi government that reported directly into Mohammed bin Salman that were personally sanctioned. The US has done none of that to people that are close to Putin. In fact, they've assiduously avoided putting sanctions on any oligarchs that would embarrass or cause problems for Putin directly. And that's the message, right? I mean, the Russians know that the Americans are capable of doing that, and they also know that it would have major knock-on economic effects. So, Biden doesn't want to do that.
Also, I want to say that as much as it disturbs me, it even repulses me that Navalny is being treated, has been treated the way he is, there is no effective opposition in Russia. It is an authoritarian state. It is like China, and many other authoritarian governments in that regard. And there are many things the Russians have done that are far more brutal and consequential for human rights around the world, like the war, the intervention, the invasion in Georgia, like the cyberattacks against Ukraine, like the invasion into Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea, and much more impactfully and importantly, the little green men into Southeast Europe, where they continue to occupy territory, and where there has been a massive military buildup on the border just over the last couple of weeks. These are bigger deals.
The media and the Americans focus more on Navalny. He speaks English. He is sort of charismatic. He's tall. He's attractive. And I mean, he gives lots of interviews. And so, the Westerners like that. But these other stories affecting poor people that don't get the media time actually matter a lot more. And even there, the willingness of the US to engage seriously, the US was planning on sending ships to the Black Sea. They demurred. They decided against doing that because the Russians told the Americans that this was just two weeks of military exercises, and then they were going to stop. But they still occupy Ukraine. It's a sovereign nation. And the Americans indeed had said before, along with other countries, that if they got rid of the nuclear weapons that the sovereignty would be respected. That was a treaty. So much for that.
So, I mean, I think those are more significant things. Just like in Saudi Arabia, the war in Yemen has been much more consequential than Jamal Khashoggi. But Yemenis aren't writing for the Washington Post and Khashoggi was, so there you have it. I think that's significant. I mean, my friend, Mike McFaul, the former ambassador to Russia, and a very good guy, came out and posted that if Navalny is killed, that no leader that focuses on human rights, cares about human rights should ever meet with Putin again. That's wrong, and that's wrong because you have to meet with leaders that do repugnant things in a world where national security means that we are dependent on each other. There's mutually assured destruction that we don't want these much greater consequential issues to impact us.
And also, just the fact that we focus so much on these issues around consequential individuals, as opposed to masses of people that end up suffering so much is one of the big problems that we have in society today. And we'd all be much better off if we were spending a lot more time focusing on the occupation in Ukraine, for example. I do think that ultimately, even though the Russian/US relationship is not about to break, it's not about to explode. I didn't mention the cyberattacks yet, and we didn't do much in response to the cyberattacks on the US except that we engage in cyberattacks against Russia all the time. And our cyber capabilities are every bit as great as Russians on the United States. And so they hit us with SolarWinds, it's embarrassing. That becomes public. We're engaging in espionage all the time, and we're not destroying each other's critical infrastructure.
I think the bigger issue is the fact that Russia is a country in decline, that their economy is doing poorly, that that makes it worse for their pensioners. It makes it worse for the average Russian member of the middle class. It means that Putin's support levels, which were very high when they annexed Crimea have gone down, and they're likely to continue to. And that means that Navalny or not, there are going to be more demonstrations. There's going to be more willingness to go against the existing regime. At the same time that Putin has just forced through a law that says that he can basically be president through the 2030s, because heck, why not? It's not a real democracy. We can do whatever we want.
A sad state for an important country. Opportunities that were missed, the whole "who lost Russia debate" back in 1991. The Soviet Union collapsed and there was lots of ideas that the Russians would eventually integrate, become part of the United States. The Russians mishandled their reforms. The Americans didn't provide much support. And now we're in a situation where the relationship is very much back in cold war footing, except the Russians are much less consequential than they used. They still got lots of nukes though. We still have to pay attention to them. They can cause trouble in their country, and around their borders. And they are still doing that. And as a consequence, that's why we're talking about them today.
So that's it for me. Be safe, avoid fewer people. We're coming out of this. Talk to you soon.
A woman carries a picture of Cuba's former President Fidel Castro and Cuba's President Raul Castro during a May Day rally in Havana.
What We’re Watching: Castro steps down, US sanctions Russia, a crescent-shaped critter in Krakow
A Castro-less Cuba: Raúl Castro, younger brother of the late Fidel, is expected to retire on Friday as secretary-general of Cuba's ruling communist party. When he does, it'll mark the first time since the 1959 revolution that none of Cuba's leaders is named Castro. The development is largely symbolic since Castro, 89, handed over day-to-day affairs to President Miguel Díaz-Canel in 2018. It's worth noting that US sanctions laws do specify that one of the conditions for normalizing ties with Cuba is that any transitional government there cannot include either of the Castro brothers. So that's one less box to tick in case there is a future rapprochement across the Straits of Florida. But more immediately, we're watching to see whether a new generation of leaders headed by Díaz-Canel will bring any serious reforms to Cuba. COVID has killed the tourism industry, plunging the island into an economic crisis that's brought back food shortages and dollar stores reminiscent of the early 1990s.
US hits Russia with sanctions: The Biden administration on Thursday announced a new wave of US economic sanctions against Russia, in retaliation for Russia's alleged backing of the SolarWinds cyberattack against American government agencies and large corporations, and the Kremlin's meddling in the 2020 election. Along with blacklisting a few dozen Russian companies and officials, the new measures prevent US banks from buying new ruble-denominated bonds, a measure meant to inflict pain on the Russian economy. For now, bond markets seem not be too worried, but one big question is whether the US is able to get its Asian and European allies to impose similar restrictions, which would hurt Moscow more. The Kremlin, which denies any involvement in cyberattacks or election shenanigans, has pledged to retaliate. There will certainly be lots to discuss if Vladimir Putin accepts Joe Biden's recent proposal to hold the first US-Russia summit since Helsinki in 2018.
The Great Croissant of Krakow: The Krakow Animal Welfare Society recently received an alarming phone call. Sharp-eyed locals in Poland's second largest city had spotted an unusual animal of some kind, sitting in a lilac tree near an apartment block. They were worried about what the strange creature might do next. Residents speculated that it might be some monstrous bird of prey, or perhaps an iguana on the loose from some far-off tropical country. They feared leaving their windows open. When animal rescue workers finally appeared on the scene, they quickly discovered that the dangerous beast was, in fact, a large croissant. Word on the street is that it had fallen into the tree from the windowsill of some thoughtful person who wanted to feed any birds of prey — or iguanas — that might happen by. Officials managed to surround and subdue the two-day old croissant, and we assume they then released it back into the wild. But don't let the happy ending lull you into complacency, Signal readers. If you see something, say something.
Putin's next move won't be a Baltic invasion that could unify NATO
Russian President Vladimir Putin needs a way to boost his popularity at home, but is he likely to launch a military campaign targeting the Baltic states, as Russian studies expert Leon Aron argues in a recent Politico op-ed? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analysts Alex Brideau and Zachary Witlin take out the Red Pen to break down why a Baltic invasion is unlikely to be on Putin's agenda.
Today we're taking a look at a recent op-ed from Politico, penned by Russian studies scholar Leon Aron of AEI.
And the title asks a provocative question, "Could Putin launch another invasion?" Aron links the current political moment in Russia, big protests, struggling economy, and Putin's own thirst for power and popularity, with the factors that led to Russia's incursion into Ukraine and annexation of Crimea in 2014. He lays out the possibility that Russia could make military moves yet again, potentially against Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania, the three Baltic states that all happen to be members of both the European Union and NATO.
Some context: This has been quite a week for US/Russia relations. President Biden in an interview with ABC News agreed with an assertion that Vladimir Putin is a "killer," I think he called him "soulless," too. And Russia responded by recalling their ambassador to the United States. All this comes as the American intelligence community released a report this week claiming that Russia had launched yet another campaign in the 2020 election to undermine Biden.
So a logical question would be: What is Putin's next move? Could he wage yet another military campaign?
Now, as with many of the pieces that we look at, some points Aron makes are right on the money. Yes, Putin did gain a lot of popularity after the operation in Crimea, especially. And yes, NATO faces real issues; Turkey is barely an ally these days, countries are slow rolling in terms of spending cash that they're promised, the French are talking about strategic autonomy, and yes, Putin always seems to have a surprise or two up his sleeve. But we are completely not convinced by the argument that an invasion of the Balts may be on its way.
So let's take out the Red Pen.
First, Aron writes that Putin's interventions, especially in Ukraine "worked," driving a "Crimean consensus" that victory in war overshadows troubles at home.
Sure, the Crimea intervention "worked" for Putin. Until it didn't. Putin has had to downplay military involvement in Ukraine of late to avoid a backlash from a Russian public that cares primarily about domestic issues still, like pensions, for example. And let's not forget that getting involved in Libya, in Syria, even in Nagorno-Karabakh didn't yield any real popularity bump of note for Putin.
Next, Aron writes that "we tend to repeat what worked." That is, Putin reached for the military lever before when he faced trouble, so he might do so again.
Well, Putin's decision making doesn't occur in a vacuum. Every past intervention was driven by national interest and foreign policy goals. Does Putin care about Putin? Of course. But Putin can't be sure that cooking up a foreign war would help matters it home. In fact, it might actually make them worse.
Finally, Aron says that Putin may consider a "fast and victorious poke at NATO's eastern flank," targeting the Baltic states and breaking NATO.
An attack on the Balts may be fast or it may be victorious, but probably not both. And Putin knows this. Western leaders are conflicted about the alliance, but an assault on full-fledged NATO State and EU members is exactly the kind of provocation that could awaken it. Putin understands this. He hardly wants to bring the alliance together as it's eroding. Low-cost efforts to steadily undermine legitimacy and grabbing targets of opportunity when available, that is much more Putin's speed.
Putin certainly seems to want to be president for life and probably is going to end up running for a fifth term, though a lot can happen in three years. Military moves that diminish his popularity or lead to further widespread protest, never mind bring together his adversaries, that is a strong NYET for now tovarishchey.
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