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Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman receives US President Joe Biden at the Royal Palace in Jeddah.
Are Saudi and Israel getting close to a normalization deal?
The US and Saudi Arabia have reportedly agreed on the outline of a normalization deal between Israel and the Gulf Kingdom that could take place within 9-12 months.
Though it’s unclear what the two parties have decided, it’s relevant that US officials leaked this update in an attempt to raise expectations that progress is being made.
What’s the background here? Israel has long made it clear that normalization with Saudi Arabia, including official diplomatic relations, is a key priority that would help pave the way for the Jewish State to gain legitimacy throughout the Muslim world.
As the custodian of two of Islam’s holiest sites, the epicenter of Sunni Islam, and an influential petrostate, Saudi Arabia is one of the most powerful states in the Muslim world.
While Israel and the Saudis have for decades cooperated behind closed doors – even more so in recent years due to their shared enmity of Iran – the latter has been reluctant to officialize the relationship. Riyadh has cited the Palestinian issue as the main obstacle, but the bottom line is that accepting Israel is still taboo in the Arab world.
To be sure, that all started to shift three years ago when three Arab states – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco – normalized relations with Israel under the Trump-backed Abraham Accords.
So what does everyone want? In addition to the hoped-for trickle-down effect, for Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, the Saudis abandoning their long-standing insistence that the Palestinian issue be resolved beforehand would be a symbolic and ideological victory.
Meanwhile, for the Biden administration, the deal would be a foreign policy win ahead of the 2024 election. But as foreign policy isn’t a huge electoral issue for American voters, Washington is likely more motivated by the need to create a new web of alliances in the Middle East as Russia and China seek to enlarge their respective footprints in the region. Indeed, Washington reportedly asked Riyadh to cool relations with Beijing to move things along.
What’s the Saudi angle? While normalization presents an economic opportunity, Riyadh is likely more concerned about securing from the US several concessions that have long been on its wishlist, including a bilateral NATO-like security guarantee, the go-ahead for a civilian nuclear power program and the removal of some arm sales embargos.
Here’s the catch: Bibi, a right-winger, is very popular in the Republican Party, and so Biden will likely have an easier time pitching the deal to the GOP. However, it could be harder to sell it to members of his own party, many of whom don’t think the US should give an inch to the Saudis due to their human rights record. And they aren’t very fond of Bibi Netanyahu either.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Is the US trying to patch things up with Saudi?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled on Tuesday to Saudi Arabia for a three-day trip, marking the second high-level US visit to the kingdom over the past month.
While few have expectations of a large breakthrough in a relationship that's been underpinned by awkward exchanges and tense standoffs for some time, Blinken is likely hoping to bolster waning trust.
Why now? The US’ top diplomat likely hopes that confidence-boosting measures can help give Washington some renewed influence over global oil policy, which the Saudis largely steer. And the timing of this trip couldn’t be more apt, particularly after Riyadh announced Sunday that it will unilaterally slash oil production by 1 million barrels per day starting next month. (You may recall that the kingdom’s decision to cut oil output – in turn raising gas prices – ahead of the 2022 midterm elections deepened the US-Saudi rift.)
Blinken also reportedly aims to push the Saudis to normalize ties with Israel, which has long been on the cards but hasn’t materialized due to a range of sticking points.
To be sure, the US-Saudi relationship is important to both sides. However, deteriorating relations amid a changing geopolitical landscape reinforce that the longstanding model of Saudi oil in exchange for US arms and security guarantees no longer flies.
Saudi Arabia proved it's still the key player in the Gulf
Joe Biden's pledges to prevent Iran from getting the bomb and to defend Saudi Arabia from an attack were "music to Saudi Arabia's ears," Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and confidante of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World. Biden's controversial trip was largely viewed as a big win for the Saudis, while the US didn't get much out of the discussions because Biden's team didn't do their homework, says Haykel.
The Saudis "were able to show that they have tremendous convening power" by bringing in all the Gulf leaders, thus demonstrating that Riyadh is the most important player there — and the partner you need for political and energy stability.
Haykel discusses how MBS consolidated power, the kingdom's strategic value to the US in the Middle East, MBS's strategy to modernize his country, and the prospects for future warmer ties with Israel. After the international furor over murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Haykel says, "I don't think that they will ever do anything like that again."
Oil, entitlement, & how MBS is changing Saudi Arabia
What is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman really doing to modernize Saudi Arabia? On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer asks Princeton University's Bernard Hayel.
MBS, as he's known in the West, is "basically banking on the bulk of the population that's under 30, [who think] he's a rock star because of the things he's doing."
Meanwhile, "anyone over 40 hates him because he's taking away entitlements" and changing the modus operandi of the country.
Haykel explains that the crown prince knows it's unsustainable for Saudi Arabia to continue relying exclusively on oil to grow.
They're still raking it in because prices are high, but MBS needs to get ahead of the curve by reforming subsidies and taxation.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
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Blowback on MBS from Khashoggi murder saved many other journalists, says expert
US-Saudi relations were strained after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which the CIA says was ordered by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS. And he knows it was a risky move.
"I don't think that they will ever do anything like that again," says Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and MBS insider.
Still, he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, the regime will continue to be very repressive and authoritarian, doing things like mass executions of convicted terrorists from al-Qaeda and the Islamic State but also dissident Shiites.
Haykel says no one in the US will shed a tear for the former, but the latter "certainly did not deserve execution."
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
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How MBS consolidated power in Saudi Arabia
What sets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, better known as MBS, apart from other autocrats who've risen to power in recent years?
He's consolidated power by "emasculating" his own family, including America's pick to succeed his dad, says Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton University and MBS confidante.
The effort "was extremely brutal and messy at times," he tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
On the heels of the US president's recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Haykel thinks that even if there's no love lost between Joe Biden and MBS, America needs a "status quo power" like the kingdom in the region to defend US core strategic interests.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
From Biden’s pariah to core partner: US Saudi visit a win for MBS
In October 2018, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered in Istanbul. The CIA says de-facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, gave the order.
That led US President Joe Biden to ghost MBS, and even label him a "pariah."
But after Biden's recent Middle East trip, the Saudi crown prince now looks less like a pariah and more like a partner, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
MBS, for his part, deserves credit for some reforms in the kingdom, and the Saudis have warmed toward Israel on his watch.
Still, Biden didn't get much out of his visit, and the trip was largely viewed as a big win for the Saudis.
Watch the GZERO World episode: Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
Saudi Arabia’s repressive power politics
US President Joe Biden famously said he would treat Saudi Arabia as a "pariah" for ordering the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But with oil prices near record highs and Iran seen as a growing menace, he felt he had no choice but to go there to revive the US-Saudi relationship.
Biden didn't get much out of his trip, which Princeton University professor and MBS confidante Bernard Haykel says was a "big win" for the Saudis and the crown prince himself. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Haykel, a Saudi expert, who discusses how MBS consolidated power, why the targeting of other journalists is unlikely, the kingdom's strategic value to the US, MBS's strategy to modernize his country, and the prospects for future warmer ties with Israel.
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