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Xi Jinping's solution to his "Taiwan problem"
"Xi has made it clear he plans to go solve the Taiwan problem while he's still in office." That's New York Times national security correspondent and New Cold Wars author David Sanger on why China's leader is setting his sights on the slender island off its eastern coast. Xi Jinping has made no secret of his belief that Taiwan belongs to China and that it is a national security imperative to bring it under Chinese sovereignty. But it's also an American national security imperative to prevent Xi from doing so, says Sanger. That's because the small island nation still manufactures the vast majority of the critical semiconductor microchips that power our modern world in both China and the United States.
"What Biden has done here in the semiconductor field of trying to choke the Chinese of the most advanced chips, but also the equipment to make those chips while trying to build up here, is the right step." At the same time, however, the Biden administration's push to manufacture more chips in the United States may also imperil the "silicon shield" that currently protects Taiwan from its Chinese neighbor. Nevertheless, Sanger argues that it's not just an industrial imperative for the United States to become self-sufficient in this area. It's a national defense imperative one as well."For our long-term security, it is much more important to build those [semiconductor factories] fabs than it is to build those aircraft carriers."
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
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China snoops on US from Cuba, US shares drone data with Taiwan
On Thursday, the WSJ reported that China and Cuba have cut a deal to establish an electronic spy base on the island, barely 90 miles from the US mainland, presumably in exchange for a hefty sum of yuan. This is a big deal because it would allow the Chinese to eavesdrop on military comms in the southeastern US and monitor ship traffic from America's doorstep.
Meanwhile, the US, Japan, and Taiwan have agreed to share real-time data from naval reconnaissance drones — crucial to anticipate and respond to a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan. But what'll really trigger Beijing is direct military cooperation between Washington and Taipei.
While China snooping on the US from nearby Cuba — and not hiding it from US intelligence — is likely intended to give Uncle Sam a taste of its own medicine over the US military presence in the South China Sea and near Taiwan, granting Taipei access to intel that would give the self-ruled island a heads-up that China is on its way is probably meant to warn Xi Jinping: We might do a bit more than just help Taiwan defend itself.
We don’t think the US and China are in a Cold War, but they are certainly doing things with Cold War vibes to each other. And this icy bilateral temperature raises the stakes ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned visit to Beijing sometime this month, a trip he had to delay over that spy balloon.Soldier miniatures are seen in front of displayed Chinese and Taiwanese flags.
US vs. China in Taiwan
The US and China may not be in a Cold War — but they could end up fighting a hot war over Taiwan.
For many, the question is not if but when Xi Jinping will decide to invade the self-ruled island. Maybe 2025, especially if a pro-independence candidate wins Taiwan's presidential election next year and the US president is distracted by messy domestic politics. Another option is 2027, when Xi has told the Chinese military to be ready to attack. Or perhaps he will just kick the can down the road until his final deadline, 2049, when the People’s Republic turns 100.
Regardless, annexing Taiwan by force would be a huge gamble for China.
For one thing, Xi knows that no matter how much China boosts defense spending, its military has not been tested in combat since 1979, when it — checks notes — lost a border war with Vietnam. For another, China's leader is probably having second thoughts after the Western response to Russia's war in Ukraine.
What's more, the US is treaty-bound, under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, to help Taiwan defend itself. (Not defend Taiwan, whatever President Biden says.) But getting weapons to Taiwan under China's nose will risk direct conflict with US forces, potentially triggering World War III.
Finally, if you think the war in Ukraine did a number on the global economy, a US-China fight over Taiwan would be much worse. The island is a chipmaking superpower, and the potential hit to global supply chains is uncharted territory.US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy meets Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California.
What We're Watching: Tsai in California, Lukashenko in Moscow, no Easter in Nicaragua
After US speaker meets Taiwan's prez, all eyes on China
US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday met Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen in California, the last stop of her trip to the Americas. McCarthy is the most senior US official to meet a Taiwanese leader on American soil since 1979, when Washington officially recognized Beijing – rather than Taipei – as “China.”
The meeting was a bold move by the Taiwanese leader, given that China considers Taiwan part of its territory and is triggered by even the slightest hint of Americans normalizing ties with Taipei. And it definitely won’t help improve the US-China relationship. But so far, Beijing’s response has been more meow than growl.
Ahead of the tête-à-tête in California, China sent fighter jets and naval vessels near the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland. Beijing followed that up by dispatching an aircraft carries and announcing spot inspections of Taiwanese ships.
Still, it wasn’t quite the massive show of force put on by China right after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last August. Blame bad timing: Xi Jinping likely doesn’t want to freak out French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, who Xi is hosting this week at a very awkward time for China-EU relations.
Lukashenko’s delicate dance
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko went to Moscow on Wednesday to pay a visit to his ally (?), friend (?), overlord (?), and partner Vladimir Putin. Whenever these two meet, Lukashenko must tread carefully. Since December 1999, Russia and Belarus have been part of a “Union State” meant to deepen economic and defense cooperation between the two former Soviet countries.
But now Putin, frustrated by a war gone wrong, is nudging Lukashenko toward further integration steps that appear to expand Russian power. Lukashenko has good reason to fear that full “integration” would allow giant Russia to swallow little Belarus whole. But he also can’t resist too aggressively, because he has faced pro-democracy protests at home that might have brought down his regime had Putin not come to his rescue.
For this reason, Lukashenko must continue a delicate dance. He allows Russia to use his country as a staging ground for war on Ukraine, and as a location for the Kremlin’s tactical nuclear weapons too, but he still resists Putin’s pressure to send Belarusian troops to join the fight.
Nicaraguan strongman cancels Easter
The Nicaraguan government is banning Holy Week street celebrations as it cracks down on critics amid a spat with the influential Catholic church.
Tensions have simmered between the church and strongman President Daniel Ortega since the anti-government protests of 2018, when his government accused clerics — who were seeking to mediate between the two sides — of supporting the streets. And amid a sweeping crackdown on dissent, Bishop Ronaldo Alvarez, a prominent Ortega critic, was sentenced in February to a 26-year prison sentence for treason, inflaming tensions in the fiercely Catholic country.
Last month, the government suspended ties with the Holy See altogether after Pope Francis called the government of Ortega – a former Marxist guerilla who somewhat unconvincingly reinvented himself as a man of faith 15 years ago – a ‘crude dictatorship’ and compared its repression of Catholics to Nazi Germany.
As Easter Sunday approaches in Nicaragua, it’s fair to ask: WWJD?
Viewpoint: As an angry China looms, Taiwan’s president seeks support in the Americas
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen will travel to the US, Guatemala, and Belize from March 29 to April 7 against a backdrop of deepening tensions with China, which regards Taiwan as a breakaway province. In the US, Tsai is expected to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and in Guatemala and Belize she aims to shore up relations with two of the last 13 countries in the world that recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty. We asked experts at Eurasia Group to explain the motivations behind Tsai’s visit.
Why is Tsai making this trip now?
Anna Ashton, China team: McCarthy had said he wanted to visit Taiwan when he became speaker, like his predecessor Nancy Pelosi did. Once he gained the speaker’s gavel in January, Tsai appears to have decided to go and see McCarthy instead and use the trip as an opportunity to see Taiwan’s supporters in Central America as well. Belize Prime Minister Johnny Briceno traveled to Taipei in 2021, and Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei had invited Tsai to visit his country. The timing of Tsai’s effort to bolster support in the region is fortuitous given Honduras’s announcement on March 25 that it was switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.
The framing of the issue of recognition as a binary choice originated in the aftermath of China’s civil war, when both the Chinese Communist Party on the mainland and the Chiang Kai-shek-led government in Taiwan claimed to be the only legitimate rulers of China. Beijing steadily made headway winning recognition away from Taipei, and in 1971, the UN General Assembly switched recognition to Beijing. Using a combination of political pressure and economic incentives, China has been peeling off other Taiwan supporters ever since.
How big of a deal is Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy?
Anna: Tsai will stop in Los Angeles to see McCarthy at the end of her trip (and will make another stop in New York at the beginning). As the third in line for the US presidency, McCarthy will be the most senior US official to meet with a sitting Taiwan president on US soil. Beijing has bristled historically at Taiwan presidents visiting the US in any capacity. In the mid-1990s, then-President Lee Teng-hui’s trip to give a speech at Cornell University, his alma mater, prompted the Chinese to fire a barrage of missiles into the waters of the Taiwan Strait and the US to send a large fleet to the area in response. Tsai has made previous stops in the US during her time in office, but McCarthy’s official reception will amplify the diplomatic significance of her upcoming stop in California, where she will also reportedly give remarks at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.
Why did McCarthy opt to see her there and not go to Taiwan like Pelosi did?
Anna: Prior to Pelosi’s Aug. 2022 trip, there had not been a visit by a sitting House speaker since Newt Gingrich stopped in Taiwan in 1997 as part of a broader itinerary focused on mainland China. After assuming the role of speaker early this year, McCarthy reportedly began planning for a spring visit to Taiwan. But Tsai’s administration is said to have urged McCarthy to accept a visit from Tsai instead. Beijing responded to Pelosi’s trip with live-fire military exercises in the strait and more aggressive incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone ever since. Ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election in January 2024, Tsai was wary of an even more forceful reaction if McCarthy came. Though not running for reelection, she wants to position her party as able to protect Taiwan’s de facto independence without overly provoking Beijing.
Clayton Allen, US politics team: McCarthy likely opted to go along with the Tsai administration’s request because US policymakers are more cognizant of the role their actions may play in intensifying tensions with China. Amid clashes with China over concerns it could provide military assistance to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, a visit to Taiwan by McCarthy now could provoke an even more aggressive reaction than that of Pelosi. An in-person meeting with Tsai in Los Angeles will still allow McCarthy to demonstrate his tough-on-China bona fides.
How might China respond to her meeting with McCarthy?
Anna: It will likely be angry, but there is little question that Los Angeles is a less provocative venue than Taipei. Any show of military force in response is likely to, at most, mirror activities undertaken in the wake of Pelosi’s visit.
How will Tsai's visit play into US domestic politics on China?
Clayton: Anti-China sentiment is at an all-time high among US voters, and policymakers are competing to show who is more hawkish toward Beijing. McCarthy, a Republican, is under pressure to demonstrate he is at least as aggressive as Pelosi, his Democratic predecessor. A meeting in California is less useful to that goal than a trip to Taipei, but the optics of meeting directly with Tsai will go quite a way to putting him on equal ground with his predecessor.
Longer term, McCarthy’s meeting with Tsai indicates that congressional support for Taiwan is unlikely to abate, and efforts to expand military cooperation will remain popular. President Joe Biden’s administration, meanwhile, is likely to prioritize efforts to stabilize a steadily deteriorating US-China relationship over near-term political benefit; no White House officials have plans to meet with Tsai while she is in the US.
How might Honduras's recent decision to switch recognition to China affect the Central America leg of Tsai’s trip?
Yael Sternberg, Latin America team: It ups the pressure. Honduras’ decision reflects a combination of economic and political motives. The country reportedly has been seeking a $2 billion loan from Beijing. While Chinese officials reportedly haven’t announced specific investment or financing commitments, they have indicated a willingness to increase their imports of Honduran products. Meanwhile, the country’s relations with the US have been deteriorating, thwarting Washington’s attempts to keep Honduras on Taiwan’s side.
China is sure to redouble its effort to woo Taiwan’s remaining Central American supporters, though Guatemala and Belize have shown no signs of wavering. Guatemala has a presidential election coming up in May, and whoever wins is likely to broadly maintain the same policies as the current administration.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor, Eurasia Group.
Biden’s “new” Taiwan policy: strategic clarity or confusion?
China on Monday blasted the US for egging on Taiwan “separatists” after President Joe Biden vowed that the US would defend the self-ruled island from a Chinese invasion. Okay, nothing new here, right? Not exactly.
First, unlike current US support for Ukraine against Russia, which is limited to cash and weapons, Biden said that he’d send American troops to fight China. Second, the US president weighed in on American policy toward Taiwan for the first time since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi kicked a hornet’s nest in Beijing by visiting Taipei six weeks ago.
More importantly, Biden’s remarks follow a recent flurry of political smoke signals from Washington that aim to deter China from making a play for Taiwan. The US has responded to Beijing's military shows of force near the island after Pelosi's trip by announcing trade talks with Taipei, greenlighting its first big arms sale to the island, and leaking a threat of unspecified preemptive sanctions.
Biden has also signed into law the so-called CHIPS Act, which offers Taiwanese semiconductor makers subsidies to churn out more chips on US soil (thus leaving China with a smaller slice of the global pie). And less than a week ago, a Senate panel advanced a bill that would for the first time provide direct US military aid to Taiwan.
America’s message to China: If you move on Taiwan, we'll double down on making it a porcupine you won't want to touch.
Strategic what? Since 1979, US policy toward the island has been governed by the Taiwan Relations Act, which among other things mandates selling Taiwan arms to defend itself from a Chinese invasion. The law is intentionally vague about what the US would actually do in the event of an attack — a loophole often referred to as “strategic ambiguity.”
Yet, as China hawks push Biden to move toward “strategic clarity,” so far the president's rhetoric has instead produced "strategic confusion," says Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, DC.
For Glaser, recent actions and statements by US officials and lawmakers — later walked back by the White House — have led many to question what the US position on Taiwan really is. That’s a slippery slope with China, becoming irritated at what it perceives to be American doublespeak.
“I don't think that this helps strengthen deterrence [or] is going to make war in the Taiwan Strait less likely,” she adds.
So, why is Biden doing this? Perhaps he truly believes he's reaffirming longstanding US policy when discussing self-determination for the island, which Glaser finds “worrisome.”
There's also a US politics angle. Since being "tough” on China is pretty much the only thing Democrats and Republicans can agree on these days, poking Beijing is hardly a tough sell for Biden.
It won't get him any decisive votes in Wisconsin, but if the Dems pick up Senate seats in the midterms and ditch the filibuster, any bill overhauling US policy on Taiwan faces better odds of passing — even if the administration formally opposes it. That, in turn, would give Biden political cover to tell Xi Jinping his hands are tied with a coequal branch of government (the same way the president likely did with Pelosi’s trip).
China, for its part, sees all this as Washington trying to hollow out its own Taiwan policy. For Glaser, Biden didn’t get the memo that Beijing will never, ever allow Taiwan to become independent: “Going forward, if the US is not learning the lesson that China is trying to teach us, then they will continue to find ways to drive that lesson home.”
On the one hand, the more the US triggers China with Taiwan microaggressions, the harder Beijing will hit back in the Taiwan Strait. And if both sides keep dialing up the tension, that raises the risk of miscalculation on either side that might cross a red line into uncharted territory.
On the other hand, Glaser believes the situation is still “manageable.” Although Xi likes to talk up Taiwan reunification, he's already got enough on his plate with the sputtering economy and zero-COVID, while the “deadline” is ... 2049.
The Graphic Truth: As US arms Taiwan, China arms itself
The White House announced on Friday that it plans to sell Taiwan $1.1 billion worth of new weapons, its biggest arms sale to the self-governing island since President Joe Biden took office. It's also the first since China upended the status quo in the Taiwan Strait in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's uber-controversial trip to Taipei.
For decades, the US has sold weapons to Taiwan over China's strong objections. While Beijing claims the island is part of the People's Republic of China, Washington does not take a position on the question of Taiwan's sovereignty, holding that the issue should be resolved peacefully by both sides — while supporting Taiwan's self-defense capabilities. But tensions between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan have been rising as the US-China relationship deteriorates more broadly.
If China were to someday invade Taiwan — which it regards as a renegade province that sooner or later will be brought under mainland control — would the US come to the island's defense? A 1979 law provides "strategic ambiguity" on whether America would have to do so. In the meantime, US arms sales have bolstered Taiwan's defense deterrent while China's military budget has skyrocketed.
We take a look at US military sales to Taiwan compared with China's own defense spending since 1990.
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Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres in Lviv, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: Erdogan's diplomacy, carnage at Kabul mosque, US-Taiwan trade talks
Erdogan is everywhere
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been very busy this week. On Thursday, he flew to Lviv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the Turkish president’s first visit to Ukraine since Russia’s war began six months ago. Erdogan, who has tried to position himself as an elder statesman and mediator between Kyiv and Moscow, vowed to help rebuild Ukrainian infrastructure just weeks after brokering a deal with Russia to resume Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports amid a global food crisis. The trio also discussed efforts to secure a contested nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. This comes a week after Erdogan held a face-to-face with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, where they pledged to boost energy cooperation. What’s more, Erdogan’s Ukraine trip came just one day after Ankara announced it was restoring full diplomatic ties with Israel. Indeed, Erdogan is looking to get wins wherever he can as he tries to divert attention from Ankara’s deepening economic woes. In a move that made many economists shudder, Turkey’s central bank on Thursday further slashed interest rates to 13% despite the fact that inflation has topped a whopping 80%. Loosening monetary policy to boost growth has long been Erdogan’s shtick, but as a cost of living crisis continues to hurt Turks, his ruling party is falling in the polls less than a year out from elections.
Worshippers killed in Kabul
At least 21 Afghans were killed, and scores more injured, in a blast on Wednesday night at a mosque in Kabul while worshippers were engaged in evening prayers. Though no group has taken responsibility for the carnage, it is thought to be the work of ISIS-K, an offshoot of the broader Islamic State movement that expanded to Central Asia in 2015 and was responsible for a deadly attack on American troops amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. Over the past year, ISIS-K has been intent on antagonizing the Taliban, which it says insufficiently enforces Sharia law (the two groups have also clashed over territory in the past). This attack also comes weeks after the Taliban labeled ISIS-K “a false sect,” banning Afghans from interacting with the group. Some analysts say that Afghanistan has recorded fewer violent incidents over the past year, in part because US forces are no longer targeting Taliban strongholds. But it's unlikely that many Afghans caught in the crossfires of this deadly battle for influence — in addition to a growing humanitarian crisis — feel the same way.
US-Taiwan trade talks
The US and Taiwan will hold formal trade talks in the fall, Washington announced two weeks after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's uber-controversial trip to the self-governing island sparked a furious response from China. Details are vague, but so far the discussions will focus on boosting digital and agriculture trade, anti-corruption standards, and a range of other issues. Taiwan sold almost $66 billion worth of goods in 2021 to the US, which is Taipei’s second-biggest market after China. But the island is far more dependent on trade with the mainland, which along with Hong Kong accounts for more than 40% of Taiwanese exports. The US, for its part, is keen to deepen economic ties with Taiwan as it tries to expand its influence in the Asia Pacific. Additionally, Washington is very hungry for one thing that Taiwan makes a lot of: semiconductors. Although the CHIPS Act recently signed into law by President Joe Biden aims to boost domestic manufacturing of the tech, the US will still need lots of Taiwanese-made semiconductors in the near term. China, for its part, blasted the talks, warning the US not to undermine Beijing’s “core interests.” While the US maintains robust ties with Taiwan, it does not formally recognize its independence from the mainland.