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Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro reacts after shooting an arrow during a rally on the Day of Indigenous Resistance, his first public appearance after opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, in Caracas, Venezuela, on October 12, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Venezuela clamps down on dissidents, Democrats celebrate election successes, Leading economist warns of triple bubble
Venezuela’s Maduro turns the screws as Trump ponders regime change
Amid intensifying US attacks on alleged Venezuela-linked drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean, Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro is cracking down on dissent at home. The largest US military buildup in the Caribbean in decades has raised concerns that US President Donald Trump may seek to knock Maduro out of power altogether. Maduro — who remains deeply unpopular after evidently rigging last year’s presidential election — has deployed loyalist vigilantes to police dissent and arrested dozens more critics. (For more on this see our latest “Debrief” with Eurasia Group’s Venezuela expert Risa Grais-Targow here.)
Democrats celebrate a good election night
As Democrats plot a path back to power in next year’s midterms, last night’s local election results give them much to chew over. First, voters in California authorized a redistricting that gives Dems a shot to overturn five GOP-held seats. Second, centrist Democrats comfortably won the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, while voters in swing-state Pennsylvania re-elected three liberal state Supreme Court justices. A key factor in VA and NJ was that voters of color who had voted for Trump in 2024 swung back to the Democrats. Lastly, of course, democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani’s victory in the New York mayoral race will intensify internal party debates about whether to double down on centrism or populism.
Leading economist warns of three big bubbles
Is the world economy about to take a bubble bath? The head of the World Economic Forum has warned of three potentially crippling financial market bubbles: in crypto, in AI, and in public debt. If any of the three bursts — that is, if a critical mass of investors think they are overvalued and start a mass sell 0ff – we could be in for a world of hurt. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon have both recently warned of a coming market correction. The WEF comments came amid a brief selloff yesterday in tech stocks over concerns about over-investment in AI.
Trump wouldn't actually invade Venezuela...would he?
President Trump reportedly hasn't yet decided whether or not to invade Venezuela. But the fact that a man who got elected on ending endless wars is even considering waging war in the Western hemisphere is remarkable. How did we get here, and what happens next? Eurasia Group's Risa Grais-Targow breaks it down in the latest episode of #TheDebrief
Trump's been cagey on whether or not the US will go to war with Venezuela, but would he? Here's how it could happen and why.
So here's the context. Trump has started taking the war on drugs literally. You've probably seen US strikes on boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying drugs, an issue that plays well with Trump's base in both red states and swing states and makes Democrats look weak. There's also concerns around migration flows, an issue that is very important for key advisors like Stephen Miller within the cabinet.
But this is about more than appearing tough on drugs and immigration. It's also about regime change. Ousting President Nicolas Maduro is unfinished business from Trump's first term and a key priority for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.
There's also an element of psychological warfare here. You have a massive US military buildup just off the coast of Venezuela aimed at getting in Maduro's head, and it just might work.
Geopolitics are also key here. Trump is keen to show China that the US is strong in its backyard, Latin America, as we saw with his moves related to the Panama Canal earlier this year. He's also taking advantage of the fact that Maduro's typical allies, Russia, Iran, China, are either weak or distracted and are unlikely to come to his rescue. All of this suggests that the US may be readying for moves against Venezuela.
Obviously, US war with Venezuela would be a huge deal, but it's also about short-term political wins versus a long-term strategy, and that means that it could escalate very quickly.There's also competing interests within Trump's cabinet. For Stephen Miller, this is about testing the limits of presidential power while Rubio is more focused on toppling a leftist regime in the region that he sees as propping up other leftist regimes, including Cuba and Nicaragua.
Then there's Trump himself, who may or may not lose interest, especially if this is something that's not going to deliver a quick win.
So which way is this going to go? Here are a few things to look out for. The first is an escalation of "Maduro Must Go" rhetoric coming from the White House, something that we're just starting to see. The second is a broader campaign against cartels in the region that shifts the US focus to other countries like Mexico and Colombia.
Finally, there's strikes within Venezuelan territory itself, which could put the US on a clear path to escalation, at which point we may be past the point of no return. And unfortunately, the thing about a point of no return is that you don't always know you're there until you've passed it.
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
Trump hits oil states
Listen: US President Donald Trump has been piling the pressure on Russia and Venezuela in recent weeks. He placed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms and bolstered the country’s military presence around Venezuela – while continuing to bomb ships coming off Venezuela’s shores. But what exactly are Trump’s goals? And can he achieve them? And how are Russia and Venezuela, two of the largest oil producers in the world, responding?
GZERO reporters Zac Weisz and Riley Callanan discuss.
Hard Numbers: Google to build AI data hub in India, Mexican rains kill dozens, Venezuela shuts Norwegian embassy, China puts sanctions on Korean shipbuilder
64: Torrid rains in Mexico last week – the result of an unusual clash of hot and cold fronts – have left 64 dead and another 65 missing. The rain damaged some 100,000 homes, and has left five states without power. The worst-affected areas were in the central parts of the country, as well as along the Gulf Coast.
3: Just three days after the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded its Peace Prize to Venezuela’s opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Caracas shut its embassy in Oslo on Monday. The Venezuelan didn’t mention Machado in its statement about the closure. Norway also suffered a diplomatic blow for similar reasons in 2010, when China suspended trade relations after the Nobel Committee awarded its prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo.
5: China sanctioned five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, accusing them of aiding US investigations. The move coincided with new US-China port fees and sent Hanwha shares down nearly 6%. Seoul said it’s assessing the impact as tensions over shipbuilding escalate.Israeli protestors hold up pictures of Israeli soldiers held by Hamas in Gaza during a demonstration earlier this week following the announcement of a Gaza ceasefire proposal by US President Donald Trump and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Hard Numbers: Trump sets Hamas deadline, Venezuela vents at US, Diddy awaits fate, Church of England appoints first female leader
2200: Donald Trump has given Hamas until Sunday at 2200 GMT – which is 6pm in Washington, DC –to accept the Gaza deal that he and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu proposed earlier this week. The framework calls for the release of Hamas-held hostages in exchange for Israeli-held Palestinian prisoners, a phased withdrawal of Israeli troops, an internationally-overseen transitional Gaza government, and amnesty for Hamas fighters who lay down arms. If the group refuses, Trump said, “all hell” will break loose.
5: Venezuela accused the US of “provocation” after detecting five US fighter jets near its Caribbean coast on Thursday. The flyover follows Trump telling Congress that the US is in an “armed conflict” and recent US strikes on alleged Venezuela-linked drug-trafficking boats. Caracas fears Washington’s real aim is to oust President Nicolás Maduro – read what that could look like here.
11: Music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs will be sentenced Friday in Manhattan federal court after his recent conviction on charges that he transported women across state lines for prostitution. Acquitted of more serious charges, he faces a wide sentencing range: with the defense seeking no more than 14 months, while prosecutors want 11 years.
1: Dame Sarah Mullally, former chief nursing officer for England, has been appointed the first female archbishop of Canterbury to lead the Church of England. The church did not allow women to become bishops until 2014.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro attends to a military event in Caracas, Venezuela August 4, 2018.
Regime change in America’s backyard?
The Trump administration is moving closer to a direct confrontation with Venezuela, raising the possibility of what the president once vowed to avoid: another US-backed regime change.
Washington has already deployed warships, surveillance planes, and submarines to the Caribbean, and indicated the possibility of a strike inside Venezuela. US forces recently sank Venezuelan boats claiming drug smugglers were aboard, killing 17 people. At the same time, officials have branded Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro a cartel boss, “fugitive of American justice,” and threatened to categorize his government as a “state sponsor of terror.”
Behind the scenes, senior officials are actively debating whether to escalate further. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, White House policy chief Stephen Miller, and CIA Director John Ratcliff are leading the charge for Maduro’s ouster. Their strategy appears to hinge on applying enough military pressure to trigger an internal rupture — splitting the regime and forcing the Venezuelan military to abandon its leader.
“I think the administration has been pretty clearly signaling that they would like to strike,” said Eurasia Group Latin America director Risa Grais-Targow. “If they haven’t yet, it’s less about lack of desire than an inability to identify reliable targets — US intelligence inside Venezuela has long been weak.”
The stakes are high. Though opposition leaders, including recent election winner Edmundo González, have signaled readiness to govern, most analysts doubt a smooth handover is likely. The opposition won the country’s 2024 presidential election but was denied power after Maduro refused to step down, and has been lobbying Washington ever since to put economic and military pressure on Maduro’s regime.
But a more probable outcome would be an initial transition from within the regime itself — perhaps a senior military figure replacing Maduro. But as Grais-Targow cautioned, “Even if Maduro is removed, the transition will be long, messy, and potentially violent. Deep mistrust between the opposition and the military makes a clean break unlikely.”
And there’s always the chance of blowback. Limited US strikes could strengthen Maduro’s grip by rallying regime loyalists and even some ordinary Venezuelans against a foreign threat. For many in Latin America, US-imposed regime change recalls a long history of interventions that left behind bloodshed and instability.
Why risk it? Three drivers appear to be shaping Trump’s calculus. First, drugs: disrupting smuggling routes plays well with voters concerned about fentanyl and cocaine flowing into swing states. Second, ideology: Rubio and other hawks see Maduro’s fall as the first domino in toppling Cuba and Nicaragua next. Third, geopolitics: Trump views Latin America as America’s backyard, where a military buildup is also a show of strength against China, which has become the region's biggest economic partner in recent years.
“Trump sees Latin America as within the US sphere of influence, and he's really keen to exert US dominance in the region vis-a-vis China," says Grais-Targow.
US President Donald Trump displays a signed executive order on gold card visa in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on September 19, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Trump admin introduces visa fee, Ransomware flies through European airports, Drone strike in Sudan kills 78, US bombs third boat from Venezuela
$100,000: The Trump administration introduced a $100,000 one-time fee for those who wish to obtain a H-1B visa. The initial announcement sparked upheaval among major US firms, as it appeared to suggest that there would be an annual $100,000 fee for the visa. The White House clarified that it would be a one-off payment, and wouldn’t apply to existing visaholders. The majority of H-1B visaholders are Indian nationals.
140: A ransomware attack that struck several major European airports on Friday continues to sow chaos, with Brussels Airport asking airlines to cancel 140 of the 276 scheduled outbound flights on Monday. The source of the attack remains unclear.
78: A drone strike on a mosque in El Fasher, in North Darfur, on Friday killed 78 people, per a local medic. The rebel Rapid Support Forces have been blamed for the attack, though they deny responsibility. Drones have expanded the scope of Sudan’s civil war, putting more and more civilians at risk – read more here.
3: A pattern is beginning to emerge, as the US military – for the third time in recent weeks – bombed a boat that was reportedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. The attack killed three people on board. US President Donald Trump has argued that the move is legal, since drug cartels in his view are foreign terrorist organizations.