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Is the US about to invade Venezuela?
Seven warships, a nuclear submarine, over two thousand Marines, and several spy planes. Over the past week, the United States has stacked a serious military footprint off Venezuela’s coast. The White House claims this is a drug enforcement mission. And sure enough, yesterday the US Navy carried out its first – though surely not its last – lethal strike against a boat allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela, killing 11 members of the Tren de Aragua gang.
But bringing amphibious assault ships and cruise missiles to a drug bust is like using a blowtorch to kill a mosquito: overkill. A deployment of this scale costs taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars, risks miscalculation and accidents, diverts scarce resources from more strategic theaters, and – fundamentally – it’s far more muscle than the stated mission requires.
Either this is history’s most expensive counter-narcotics operation or it’s … something more.
A run of legal and political escalations points to a bigger play. Over the last few weeks, the Trump administration designated Venezuelan cartels as terrorist organizations and Nicolás Maduro as their leader. It doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million. It authorized the Defense Department to use force against cartels in Venezuela and Mexico. And it made a point of reiterating that the US does not recognize Maduro as a legitimate head of state protected by US law – a crucial step in creating legal cover to target him directly, if Trump so ordered. These moves happened before the flotilla started steaming south.
Add it all up and this reads like the opening act of a pressure campaign to unseat Maduro.
President Trump is usually – though not always (see Brazil, for example) – skeptical of regime change, but Secretary of State and national security adviser (and acting USAID Administrator, and acting Archivist) Marco Rubio has been pushing for a more active US intervention in Venezuela since his Senate days. For Rubio, whose worldview was shaped by Miami Cuban exile politics, hitting Caracas is about more than drugs, crime, and illegal migrants – it's about taking down what he sees as Cuba's oil-subsidized proxy and the first step in cleaning house across Latin America.
Trump himself has competing impulses. On one hand, he promised voters no new foreign wars and still mistrusts the Venezuelan opposition after getting burned by the Juan Guaidó fiasco in his first term. Unlike Rubio, he also has no principled commitments to the cause of Venezuelan democracy. Even as his administration tightened the screws on Maduro and his circle, it quietly reinstated Chevron’s license to pump Venezuelan oil earlier this year. The license is structured to keep oil moving but on terms that favor American interests rather than PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil monopoly.
On the other hand, Trump is not ideologically averse to all military action – only to politically costly quagmires – and he has plenty of reasons to want to see Maduro gone. Judging by the administration’s recent moves, Rubio may have succeeded in convincing the president that Venezuela offers the perfect opportunity for him to project strength on the global stage and take an easy victory lap at a time when the regime is brittle and some of his other big-ticket foreign policy gambits, such as Ukraine diplomacy, are flopping.
None of this implies boots on the ground. Trump has zero appetite for another Iraq that would be politically toxic and unpopular even with his MAGA base (not to mention that a ground invasion would require a much larger troop deployment).
But military actions against cartel infrastructure, key facilitators, or military assets propping up the regime? That would align with Rubio’s agenda, explain the scale of the buildup, and give Trump easier-to-sell wins that don’t risk messy entanglements. Most likely, the goal isn’t to seize territory or topple the regime in one go (though targeted decapitation strikes can’t be ruled out); it’s to ramp up the pressure on the people keeping Maduro in power, shifting their calculations and eventually threatening his standing.
That’s how most autocracies crack – from within. Venezuela's military has stuck with Maduro (and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez) through the country’s economic collapse and international isolation, but its loyalty is transactional. Fifty million-dollar bounties, a naval blockade, and the prospect of death by Tomahawk create powerful incentives to reconsider.
This isn’t to say the regime is about to collapse. Even if Maduro falls – still a big if – the military and palace power brokers would try to manage the transition and install his successor. Think Vice President Delcy Rodríguez or her brother, National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez, both pragmatic insiders who've negotiated with Washington and the opposition before. The ruling PSUV has far-reaching institutional control; any deal that persuades regime elites to stand down will require extensive power‑sharing and amnesty guarantees. The path to real elections and opposition government would be long, messy, and probably violent.
But that's getting ahead of ourselves. The immediate question is simpler: are we looking at theater or prelude? My bet is it’s a little bit of both, but we will know soon enough. Those around Maduro must be wondering whether he’s still worth the risk of sticking around to find out.
US strike on vessel from Venezuela
Is the US trying to topple Venezuela's leader?
In this episode of ask ian, Ian Bremmer breaks down the recent US military strike on a vessel leaving Venezuela and what it signals for the Trump administration’s broader strategy.
“The United States has now engaged in an initial strike claiming a drug enforcement mission,” Ian explains. But the scale of the operation tells another story: “Seven US warships, a nuclear submarine, over 2,000 Marines, and several spy planes…this is clearly not just a drug interdiction.”
Ian suggests the move could be the start of a blockade or even strikes on gangs and terrorist groups inside Venezuela. While some US officials have long pushed for Nicolás Maduro’s removal, he cautions against assuming regime change. Ian notes, “I’d be very surprised to see boots on the ground.”
The Venezuela policy, Ian remarks, stands in stark contrast to Trump’s approach in Israel, where the US government continues to provide funding and political support, an exception to his ‘America First’ stance.
China's liquid-fueled intercontinental strategic nuclear missiles DongFeng-5C, which have a global strike range, pass through Tiananmen Square during the V-Day military parade in Beijing, China, on September 3, 2025.
What We’re Watching: Xi hosts military parade, Poland’s new prez to meet Trump, US hits drug-carrying Venezuelan ship
China’s giant parade sends a message to the West
Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted a massive military parade in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square earlier today, featuring 10,000 troops and a show of new weapons, including an intercontinental ballistic missile that could strike the United States mainland. The procession wrapped up a jam-packed week of diplomacy and showmanship, with some 26 foreign leaders – including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un – in attendance. Though the display officially marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II – especially China’s war with Japan – the purpose was a little more contemporary: Xi wants to subvert the notion that the US is the lone global hegemonic power.
Poland’s new president comes to Washington to discuss own Russia border
Unlike other European leaders, Polish President Karol Nawrocki won’t be imploring US President Donald Trump to lend more support to Ukraine when he makes his first official White House visit today. He’ll instead focus on his own border with Russia. The Trump administration’s interest in Europe appears to be dwindling, so Poland – which relies heavily on US military support – will be hoping to maintain that backing. Nawrocki, just four weeks into the new job, also faces his own power struggle with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk over everything from foreign policy to social welfare, making this trip a useful opportunity to position himself as the leading Polish voice on the world stage.
Trump escalates pressure on Maduro with Caribbean strike
The US president said a military strike destroyed a drug-laden vessel near Venezuela, killing 11 suspected members of the Tren de Aragua gang. Trump shared a grainy video of the explosion on Truth Social, warning traffickers to “beware.” Caracas dismissed the footage as AI-generated, but Washington insisted it was authentic. The operation comes as Trump escalates pressure on President Nicolás Maduro, recently doubling the bounty to $50 million for information leading to the Venezuelan leader’s arrest on drug charges. Venezuela has vowed to resist US intervention, calling the growing American military presence in the Caribbean the greatest regional threat in a century.
Is the US preparing to strike Venezuela?
In this episode of Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take, Ian breaks down escalating US actions toward Venezuela.
Ian explains why Venezuela isn’t making headlines, but should be. The Trump administration recently designated Venezuela’s powerful Tren de Aragua cartel a terrorist organization, directly tied Nicolás Maduro to another drug cartel, Cartel de los Soles, doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million, and authorized the Pentagon to target cartels in Venezuela and Mexico.
Most strikingly, the US has deployed three guided missile destroyers and other ships to Venezuela’s coast, a clear show of force that suggests options beyond drug interdiction.
Military strikes are not inevitable, but Ian notes the dots are being connected. Any action would likely resemble past US strikes on Iran: a sudden, limited but heavy show of power, not a long war.
Still, labeling Maduro a narco-terrorist opens the door to broader moves against his regime, a possibility to watch closely in the coming weeks.
US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., attend a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on August 26, 2025.
Washington’s double game in Venezuela: Warships, oil tankers, and uncertain outcomes
– By Tony Frangie Mawad
The turquoise Caribbean waters off Venezuela now carry two rival fleets under the same flag. One consists of US destroyers, an amphibious squadron and a nuclear submarine deployed as part of US President Donald Trump’s newest offensive against Latin American drug cartels. The other is Chevron oil tankers loading Venezuelan crude and heading north, supplying US refineries.
This duality is indicative of the Trump administration’s internal conflict over how to deal with Venezuela. While figures like Special Envoy Richard Grenell and MAGA influencer Laura Loomer dismiss “regime change” rhetoric and prioritize access to Venezuela’s oil reserves – the world’s largest – Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Florida Republicans push for sanction-centered “maximum pressure” and alignment with opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.
The strain comes after the contested July 28, 2024, presidential elections in Venezuela, when – despite overwhelming evidence of an opposition landslide victory – the Maduro government deepened repression and clung to power despite its unpopularity. The opposition, with no institutional leverage and facing a security apparatus loyal to the country’s ruling socialists, pinned its hopes on external pressure. Opposition leader Machado therefore welcomed Trump’s naval deployment, praising “the firm and brave decision to dismantle the criminal enterprise that has seized Venezuela.” She and Rubio link President Nicolás Maduro not only to alleged drug trafficking group, “Cartel of the Suns,” but also to the transnational criminal gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), portraying the Venezuelan regime as the “criminal hub” of a hemispheric syndicate. Their campaign has borne fruit: Trump formally designated the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization, accusing Maduro of leading it, and raised the bounty for his capture to $50 million – twice the figure once set for Osama bin Laden.
These actions are more defensible if Venezuela is considered a narco-state. Transparencia Venezuela, Transparency’s local branch now in exile, estimates illicit economies – including cocaine, gold smuggling, and port kickbacks – may amount to close to 16% of national GDP. Almost 25% of the world’s cocaine, routed through Colombia, now passes through Venezuela, according to the DEA and other agencies. These numbers support the hard-liners in the US administration. Yet experts caution against taking the US designation of the “Cartel of the Suns” literally. Far from a rigid hierarchy, it is more an umbrella term for informal trafficking networks facilitated by corrupt officials and state institutions in the vacuum left by Venezuela’s weakened state control. Similarly, evidence linking TdA to the Maduro government is scarce.
For now, Washington is keeping its options open. The naval and marine presence – over 4,000 troops, amphibious carriers, reconnaissance aircraft, and three destroyers – is tailored less to invasion than to interception. “Suspicious vessels may be detained and boarded on the high seas, with or without flag consent. This exerts pressure, but it doesn't overthrow anyone,” says Víctor M. Mijares, a Venezuelan geopolitical expert.
Nobody knows what happens next. The presence of precision-strike platforms revives fears of a surgical operation, akin to US and Israeli strikes against Iran, a close ally of Venezuela’s regime. In anticipation, Maduro has banned non-state sale and use of drones. He has also reacted with fiery anti-imperialist rhetoric, calling for a nationwide mobilization that supposedly enlists firefighters, communal councils, and 4.5 million militia members – though local analysts note that figure is inflated, consisting largely of pensioners and state clients. On Monday, perhaps as a show of strength and to reinforce defensive border security, Venezuela also announced the deployment of 15,000 troops – allegedly as part of a domestic anti-drugs operation – to the border with Colombia, a key US regional security partner. Venezuela is also deploying ships to the northern part of the country’s territorial waters, likely facing the US fleet.
Despite the military deployments, one key factor supports a continuation of the status quo: economics. US sanctions notwithstanding, Chevron is able to export oil thanks to the renewal of their license to operate. While the opposition had urged Washington to revoke the license, calling instead for the “financial asphyxia” of the regime, tankers have resumed crude exports to the United States. The trade is estimated to generate roughly $4 billion a year, and accounts for the bulk of Venezuela's oil production.
In the medium term, it is most likely that tensions will gradually escalate. If it comes to a head and Maduro is replaced in a haphazard way, without coordination between the democratic opposition and state actors, the result may not be a democratic transition but a power vacuum quickly filled by hardliners or even a military junta. At least for now, in a country increasingly accustomed to secrets and conspiracies, the full picture remains unclear.
Tony is a Venezuelan journalist and political scientist based in Caracas. He has written for several international outlets, runs a bilingual newsletter on his country called Venezuela Weekly, and is launching Ecosistema, a digital outlet on Venezuelan business, tech, and society.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro addresses supporters during a march marking the first anniversary of his victory in the disputed July 28 presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela July 28, 2025.
Hard Numbers: US doubles Maduro’s bounty, Trump appoints new Fed member, Modi and Lula combine forces, & more
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7: US President Donald Trump will nominate Stephen Miran, a tariff advocate and critic of current Fed chair Jay Powell, to temporarily join the seven-member Federal Reserve board, a move analysts say could be positioning Miran to take over for Powell once his term is up in February of 2026. Miran is known for supporting the goal of structurally weakening the US dollar – more on that here.
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What We’re Watching: Iran meets with Putin, NATO gathers at the Hague, Venezuela targets black markets
US bombing of Iran creates Russian conundrum
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Iran’s foreign minister on Monday, offering rhetorical support for Tehran – but it’s unclear what more the Kremlin is willing to do for its last major Middle Eastern ally right now. Putin has cultivated good ties with Iran, but also with Israel. At the same time, with Washington focused on Iran, Russia continued to hammer Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. Just days ago, Putin openly declared that the “whole of Ukraine is ours” – does he think the end goal is in sight?
NATO allies meet for an uncomfortable summit
Defense expenditure will be the top agenda item when leaders of 32 countries – all from Europe and North America – gather at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit tomorrow in the Hague, Netherlands. Ahead of the gathering, the group agreed to increase its defense-spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP, but granted an exception to Spain due to the prime minister’s political problems at home. Questions about the strength of the alliance are swirling: US President Donald Trump has sparred with his NATO allies for years now, and there’s no sign that the tensions will subside – his decision to bomb Iran undercut European efforts to foster a truce in the Middle East.
Venezuela cracks down on black markets – could it backfire?
The Venezuelan government has arrested dozens of people, including former top officials, in a crackdown on the country’s sprawling black market for dollars. Authorities blame off-the-books dollar traders for destabilizing the exchange rate, but experts say that the government’s economic mismanagement, coupled with US sanctions, means that black markets are the only way to satisfy popular demand for greenbacks. Stamping out those channels could, they warn, make things worse. Venezuela’s inflation rate has already surged past 200% this year.
Venezuela’s opposition leader on Trump, Maduro, and why the ballot box isn’t the answer this time
This Sunday, Venezuelans will go to the polls in the first nationwide elections since the contested presidential election last July.
But unlike that election, which by all independent accounts President Nicolás Maduro stole, the country’s embattled opposition has decided this time not to participate at all.
Ahead of the vote – which is for local, regional, and legislative positions – I sat down with opposition leader María Corina Machado, who has been in hiding amid a fierce government crackdown since the election last year.
I asked her why she has gambled on boycotting the vote rather than participating, what she thinks of the Trump Administration’s Venezuela policy, and millions of Venezuelans who have fled the country…
Here's the full interview.
Riley Callanan: Hello, Maria. Thank you for speaking with GZERO today ahead of Venezuela's elections this Sunday. I understand that you're in hiding right now, but could you tell me a little bit about what your life has been like since the election last summer? How have you processed both the massive victory of being able to prove that Maduro didn't win, but also the disappointment of him not stepping down?
Maria Corina Machado: Well, Riley, I first of all have to say that I feel so proud of what the Venezuelan people were able to do. It was a huge victory and most people thought it was impossible. We were able to build a movement of over 1 million volunteers that were able to secure the tall sheets in less than 24 hours under fierce persecution to prove that we won by a landslide.
After Maduro was defeated, he accused me of terrorism. He said that I would have to spend the rest of my life in prison. Every single coordinator involved in directing these huge processes are either in exile, jail, or in hiding. And that's what I decided to do. It was almost 10 months ago. And to be honest, it hasn't been easy. You're never prepared to be in absolute isolation.
But fortunately, I've had the possibility to work without stopping in order to maintain the strength, the pressure, and even scale up [our effort] so that we will finally, as I have no doubt, make the popular sovereignty of the Venezuelan people be respected.
Callanan: Do you think that Maduro's regime is at risk of losing power on Sunday?
Machado: Well, look, Sunday is not an election and it has nothing to do with Maduro getting more power in the country. It's going to be a huge defeat because people will not participate, and will not go. And I want to make this very clear. We are under not a conventional dictatorship, but a criminal structure that uses these kinds of processes to try to whitewash their faces. In this process, only those individuals that the regime allows are able to participate as candidates. They have completely changed the rules and violated the laws regarding who votes and where they vote. So in this case, a massive boycott will leave the regime alone and even further weaken what they have left of support. That I insist is only a few top brass individuals and financial enablers.
Callanan: Tell me a little bit more about that. After pulling off such a massive organizational feat in the presidential election, how did you decide to use your power as the opposition leader to call for a boycott? How'd you decide that abstention was the best route forward for the opposition at this point?
Machado: Because we've already proven where the power is, we've already shown where the people are. That happened on July 28th, and everybody knows it. They never expected that we had such a strong organization or that we could prove the results.
So once that happened, they decided to cut short any possibility of a genuine electoral process—it was over. Our concern, our mandate, our duty right now is to ensure that result is respected.
In that context, we need to evaluate every action the regime takes in terms of whether it facilitates or accelerates the transition to democracy and Maduro’s exit from power, or whether it stabilizes the regime. And in this case, it is clear to the Venezuelan people that this maneuver by the regime is designed to help them stabilize.
So we’re going to do exactly what the country needs—and certainly, we want to vote in truly free and fair elections. That’s what we’re fighting for—not this operation designed by the regime.
Callanan: I know you've also called on the international community to pressure Venezuela to move toward democracy. Specifically regarding the US, have you been able to make any inroads with the Trump administration? I know you appeared on Donald Trump Jr.'s podcast a few months ago. What are your thoughts on Donald Trump's current policy toward Venezuela?
Machado: Well, I have to say that I’m very grateful to the administration and to President Trump for his position on Venezuela. It has been unwavering support, along with that of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Under Secretary of State Christopher Landau. They have been very clear in their stance. I also have to acknowledge members of Congress — senators, congressmen, and congresswomen — who understand that the regime in Venezuela represents an ongoing threat, one that is already destabilizing the region and endangering both hemispheric and US national security. We are very grateful to President Trump for the decisions he has made in this regard.
Callanan: On the other hand, hundreds of Venezuelans have been deported to El Salvador to some of the harshest prisons in the region. That number is likely to increase now that the Supreme Court, on Monday, lifted deportation protections for 350,000 Venezuelans. What are your thoughts on the Trump administration’s policy regarding deportations?
Machado: Look, I’ve been very clear—and members of the administration are well aware of my position. Venezuelans who have left our country have been forced to do so by the regime—not only because it has destroyed and impoverished our population, but because anyone who thinks differently is persecuted. Almost all of those who have fled are good, hardworking, honest, family-loving people. And you know what? They want to come back — but they want to return to freedom.
The best way to solve the migration crisis stemming from Venezuela involves a broad international effort — not just from the United States, but also from many countries in Latin America that are under similar pressure. We have a third of our population living abroad. Imagine if a third of Americans had to leave their country — what would that mean? It’s devastating. We want our families back, we want our children back. But to make that happen, we need a transition that offers opportunity and safety for them at home.
So I insist: the only way to solve this immigration problem is at the source — not at the border. That means a transition to democracy in Venezuela. And that’s why we are asking our allies to help us.
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