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FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 19, 2024.
Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa.
An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur.
US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.
Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the allegedly Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top.
Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, candidate for the Presidency of Mexico by Sigamos Haciendo Historia coalition shows a electoral ballot before casting their vote at a polling booth during the 2024 Mexico s general election on June 2, 2024,
Mexico elects first woman president — will she bring change?
Claudia Sheinbaum made history on Sunday, with preliminary results showing she won roughly 60% of the vote to become the first woman elected Mexico’s president. Her victory was never really in doubt, given the support she enjoyed from outgoing and immensely popular President Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador. But that same popularity means it will be hard for Mexico’s first female president to emerge from her predecessor’s shadow.
Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term, but AMLO has pitched Sheinbaum as his loyal successor. He’s promised she will carry on the work of what he calls Mexico’s populist “Fourth Transformation” (the first three being Mexican Independence in 1821, the civil war of 1858-1861, and the revolution 1910-1917).
Her vote more than doubled the runner-up’s, and her party took 251 seats in the lower house and 60 in the Senate, which should give her so-called “qualified” majorities in both houses alongside coalition partners. In other words, she can change the constitution, and perhaps enact some of the controversial changes AMLO failed to implement.
When the fiesta dies down at Morena headquarters, Sheinbaum will face demands from voters to tackle cartel violence, the country’s historically high murder rate, and immigration – problems she has slim chances of resolving. On the latter issue, she’s at the mercy of Washington, as folks crossing her southern border with Guatemala are trying to get to the United States, not stay in Mexico. She won’t have a clear picture of the policy environment she can act within until the gringos vote in November.
And she’ll need to break away from AMLO’s “hugs not bullets” policy, which has utterly failed to protect Mexicans, especially women and girls, from the predations of drug traffickers. The trick will be doing so without implicitly criticizing her former boss.
“The challenge is to follow Lopez Obrador, manage an extremely challenging security situation, ensure macroeconomic fundamentals remain sound and potentially deal with Trump,” said Eurasia Group analyst Daniel Kerner, who was at Sheinbaum HQ on Sunday. “And if she tries to do the constitutional reforms, economic and social stability will suffer.”
Displaced Palestinian woman Mai Anseir stands with children at a school where they shelter as they prepare to flee Rafah after Israeli forces launched a ground and air operation in the eastern part of the southern Gaza City, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip May 13, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Waves of Palestinians displaced, Deadly cartel violence in Mexico, Fatal riots in New Caledonia, Biden sanctions Nicaragua, Israeli soldiers killed by friendly fire
500,000: Over half a million people have been displaced in Gaza by recent Israeli military operations in Rafah and the northern part of the enclave, according to the UN. As the Israel-Hamas war rages on, over a million people in Gaza are on the verge of starvation, and a “full-blown famine” is occurring in the north.
11: Recent clashes between rival cartels in the southern Mexican state of Chiapas have killed at least 11 people, with two nuns and a teenager reportedly among the dead. The Sinaloa cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are fighting for control of the area.
4: At least four people are dead due to riots over electoral reform in New Caledonia, a Pacific island and French overseas territory. France declared a state of emergency over the situation, which grants authorities more power to ban gatherings and restrict movement.
250: The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Nicaraguan companies and visa restrictions on 250 people, accusing President Daniel Ortega’s government of “profiting off of irregular migration” to the US. Officials say the Nicaraguan government is exploiting migrants trying to reach the US by selling visas that require them to leave the country within 96 hours. Biden’s move aims to reduce the flow of migrants to the US — an issue that he continues to face pressure over with an election looming.
5: Five Israeli soldiers were killed in a friendly fire incident in northern Gaza on Wednesday, Israel’s military said today. The Israel Defense Forces have opened an investigation into the incident, which involved tank cross-fire in the town of Jabalia. Seven others were injured.
Participants in a rally to mark an attack on an SPD politician stand on Pohlandplatz. After the brutal attack on the SPD politician Ecke, a 17-year-old turned himself in to the police.
Latest attack on a German politician stokes concern ahead of elections
Last week, the top European Parliament candidate of the governing Social Democrat Party was beaten unconscious in the eastern city of Dresden while campaigning. A Green Party operative was assaulted there as well. Several teens with ties to far-right ideologies are suspected in both cases.
Statistics show rising violence against German politicians. In 2023, there were nearly 2,800 physical or verbal attacks, twice as many as in 2019, when a neo-Nazi assassination of conservative lawmaker Walter Lübcke stunned the country.
Last year’s violence included about 500 attacks on politicians from the far-right Alternative for Deutschland, or AFD, and more than 1,200 on members of the center-left Green Party.
Why now? The problem has deep roots, according to Jan Techau, a Berlin-based Europe expert at Eurasia Group. Establishment parties’ long-standing failure to address big issues like immigration, schooling, or the economy, he says, opened the way for more radical and violent forces on both the left and right. “What we see is an overall more charged, political atmosphere where this kind of violence becomes more legitimate.”FILE PHOTO: Parts of a ghost gun kit are on display at an event held by U.S. President Joe Biden to announce measures to fight ghost gun crime, at the White House in Washington U.S., April 11, 2022.
The Supreme Court takes aim at “ghost guns”
The US Supreme Court agreed Monday to rule on a challenge to the Biden administration’s efforts to crack down on untraceable “ghost guns.”
What are “ghost guns”? Basically, privately manufactured kits that give customers all the individual parts they need to build a firearm themselves, like a deadly version of IKEA.
Before the Biden administration’s new regulations, customers did not need to pass background checks to buy these kits, and law enforcement struggled to trace the guns when they were used in crimes. Unsurprisingly, a lot of criminals bought these kits. In 2020, law enforcement agencies recovered 19,344 ghost guns from crime scenes, up from just 1,758 in 2016.
What’s the argument? The White House’s regulations don’t ban the sale of gun kits but require manufacturers to put serial numbers on components and conduct background checks. Manufacturers and Second Amendment activists say the government is overstepping its powers in regulating the kits like actual firearms.
What’s the outlook? The court has a 6-3 conservative majority that generally favors expansive Second Amendment rights. That said, two conservatives – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett – joined the liberals to let the White House allow the regulations to take effect temporarily last August. Their votes will be key, with a decision expected after the November election.Claudia Sheinbaum (c), candidate for the presidency of Mexico from the MORENA party, is visiting the facilities of the Tlatelolco Cultural Center in Mexico City to sign the National Commitment for Peace, organized by the Society of Jesus in Mexico and the Mexican Episcopate Conference, on March 11, 2024.
Mexico’s presidential front-runner and the politics of violent crime
In June 2022, a man fleeing a drug gang took refuge inside a church in a remote region of northern Mexico. Armed men followed him into the church, killed him, and murdered two Jesuit priests who tried to intervene.
That event has since strained relations between the Catholic Church and President Andres Manuel López Obrador, whom church leaders blame for failing to contain the country’s still-high rates of violent crime.
López Obrador’s presidency will end – he’s term-limited – later this year following an election to choose his successor. The popular leader has endorsed former Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum of his Morena party, and she is the heavy favorite in June’s election.
This week, all three presidential candidates signed a document entitled “Commitment for Peace,” drafted by Mexico’s Roman Catholic leadership, that calls for new efforts to lower the country’s violent crime rate. But Sheinbaum, beating back implicit criticism of López Obrador’s failure on the issue, noted that she disagreed with the church’s claim that Mexico suffers a “profound crisis of violence.”
López Obrador’s security minister reported in January that the country’s homicide rate fell 10.8% in 2023, but Mexico's 29,675 murders last year still averaged 81 per day. The challenge of violent crime, and the delicate political dance around it, will continue.A woman with a gunshot wound is transported by two men on a motorcycle as Haiti remains in state of emergency due to the violence, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti March 9, 2024.
Haitian Interior Ministry torched in weekend violence
Regional leaders are meeting Monday in Jamaica to discuss Haiti’s political crisis after intense violence in Port-au-Prince saw gangs burn down the country’s Interior Ministry this weekend. They also attacked police stations near the National Palace in offensives that have paralyzed the country. The US Embassy has evacuated non-essential staff.
Washington is pushing for a transitional council to replace unpopular Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who is stuck outside Haiti. He left for Nairobi on Feb. 25 to try to salvage a multinational intervention force to be led by Kenya. The leader of the largest gang coalition, Jimmy Chérizier (aka Barbecue), used Henry’s absence as an opportunity to play for power.
What happens now? Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, the president of regional bloc CARICOM, says he is in talks with Henry and other Haitian power players.
We expect Henry to step down – without support from Haitians, the US, or regional leaders, how can he hang on?
The tricky question is who comes next. Guy Philippe, a convicted drug trafficker who led the 2004 coup, is building support for his “National Awakening” movement, and some Haitians say he is in a position to negotiate with the gangs. But considering he’s fresh out of a US prison, don’t expect Washington to back him.FILE PHOTO: Men run next to burning tires during a protest demanding an end to gang violence, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, August 14, 2023.
How long must Haitians wait for help?
On Wednesday, armed men surrounded the Fontaine Hospital Center in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, trapping scores of people for hours before police managed to evacuate at least 40 children and 70 other patients. This type of violence has become a daily occurrence in Haiti, where police have struggled to gain the upper hand against gangs since the July 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse. Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry has been urgently calling for international intervention for over a year to help crack down on the mayhem.
While most countries have opted not to jump into the fray, Kenya offered to lead a police force to quash Haiti’s gangs. The UN approved the plan last month, but it immediately hit a legal hurdle back in Kenya, where opponents say Kenya’s Constitution only permits military deployments overseas, not the dispatch of police officers. The court has yet to rule – a verdict is expected on Jan. 26, 2024 – but proponents of the mission got a boost this week when Kenya’s Parliament approved the mission. Lawmakers cited a committee report that found it constitutional on the grounds that Henry requested the police and because the government solicited public participation.
Kenya can’t go it alone: If the court greenlights the mission, the force consists of just 1,000 Kenyan officers, who would be joined by promised deployments from other nations, bringing the total to 2,500. Even combined with roughly 9,000 Haitian National Police officers, the proposed mission would still be outnumbered.
Haiti’s roughly 200 gangs – estimated to have had at least 100 members each in 2021, totaling 20,000-plus — have merged into two large coalitions, fighting both each other and the police for control.