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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and Republican presidential nominee former US President Donald Trump, meeting on September 27, 2024 in New York City, NY, USA.
For Ukraine, a Trump victory could mean defeat
While Justin Trudeau is likely to be nervously watching the US election, the stakes will be considerably higher for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country’s war against Russian invaders depends on sustained American military assistance.
The Financial Times reported this week that Trump plans to freeze the conflict along the current front line, keep Ukraine out of NATO, and have Europeans enforce the peace. He has previously said the war could be ended within 24 hours, without elaborating on how he’d accomplish this. The Ukrainians might not have much choice but to go along with a Trump plan, given their reliance on US aid, but the Russians have said halting the war might not be so easy.
Zelensky is no doubt hoping for a Harris victory, which would likely mean continued US support for the Ukrainian resistance. But there is tension between the two countries. The Ukrainian leader complained Wednesday that the United States leaked information about Ukraine’s request for long-range Tomahawk missiles, which the Americans consider unrealistic.
The war is escalating just as the US election takes place. North Korean troops are reportedly already in Kursk, the Russian border province where Ukraine has captured 250 square miles of territory. Ukraine is pushing for US approval to fire long-range missiles into Russia, but Washington, afraid of escalating the conflict, has so far refused.
Ukraine’s August surprise attack on Kursk captured headlines and bolstered Zelensky’s argument that Ukrainian forces can win. But the Kursk offensive has not stopped Russia’s advance within Ukraine, as he had hoped. With fresh soldiers from North Korea potentially joining the fight alongside Russia, Ukraine will be under pressure to hang onto its foothold, while hoping Harris wins and provides more powerful weapons.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi emplanes for two-nation state visit to Poland and Ukraine, in New Delhi on Wednesday.
India’s Modi makes first-ever visit to Kyiv
India’s balancing act. New Delhi has long-standing economic and military ties to Moscow and has called for diplomacy but refused to condemn the invasion. India continues to buy Russian oil at a discount.
But India is also an important ally of the United States, owing to their shared concerns about China. Modi’s visit to Kyiv is meant in part to ease concerns in Washington while also showing Russia that he has his own prerogatives. Putin will not love the fact that Modi is in Kyiv while Ukraine still occupies Russian territory and is swarming Moscow with drones.
Could India make progress towards peace? It’s a long shot. The US, and especially China, are better equipped to offer the necessary economic and security guarantees. Still, India will play an important supporting role in any settlement. Modi’s trip is at least partly about exploring what that might be.Ukrainian service members ride an Armoured Personnel Carrier, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the Russian border in Sumy region, Ukraine August 11, 2024.
Russia warns of “tough response” to Ukraine offensive
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this weekend that Ukraine is conducting a cross-border offensive into Russia’s western Kursk region, marking the deepest incursion into Russian territory since that country’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Ukrainian forces have advanced more than six miles inside Russia, prompting the evacuation of over 76,000 people from border areas.
Zelensky saidthe move was designed to “restore justice” and exert pressure on Moscow.According to a senior Ukrainian security official, “The aim is to stretch the positions of the enemy, to inflict maximum losses, and to destabilize the situation in Russia,” adding “There is no idea of annexation.”
Russia's foreign ministry has warned of a“tough response” to the incursion. As of Sunday evening, Russia’s armyclaimed to have halted Ukraine’s advance, hitting targets in areas up to 20 miles from the Russian border, and stepped up attacks on Kyiv, killing a father and son on Saturday. Moscow’s Defense Ministry reported the destruction of 14 Ukrainian drones and four Tochka-U missiles over Kursk, denouncing the operation as “barbaric” and lacking military sense.
Russia has raised concerns about potential attacks on the Kursk nuclear plant, located just 37 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, andthe International Atomic Energy Agency has called for both sides to “exercise maximum restraint to prevent a nuclear accident with severe radiological risks.” In response, Ukrainian officials assured, “We absolutely will not cause problems for nuclear security. This we can guarantee.”Women and babies at the Zamzam displacement camp, close to El Fasher in North Darfur, Sudan, January 2024.
Hard Numbers: Spike in forced displacement, Biden signs long-term deal with Kyiv, Thousands face starvation in Sudan, Sharp increase in travel for abortions
120 million: As of May, the number of forcibly displaced people worldwide stood at a record 120 million — roughly equivalent to the population of Japan — according to the UN refugee agency, which blamed “new and mutating conflicts” as well as the failure to resolve “long-standing crises.” The conflict in Sudan, in particular, has contributed to the historic level of displacement, the UN said. By the end of 2023, nearly 11 million Sudanese had been driven from their homes.
10: President Joe Biden signed a 10-year security agreement for a range of military assistance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday amid Ukraine’s ongoing war with Russia. But if former President Donald Trump — who isn’t a fan of aid for Kyiv — wins in November, he could scrap the agreement without much effort because it hasn’t been ratified by Congress.
756,000: The conflict in Sudan has induced a dire humanitarian crisis. It’s now estimated that 756,000 people in the country could face catastrophic food shortages by September, according to a preliminary projection utilized by UN agencies and other aid groups as they evaluate whether it’s officially a famine. But the US special envoy to Sudan warned Tuesday that parts of the country were already experiencing famine and that the question now is “how much famine, how much of the country, and for how long.”
171,000: New estimates show that roughly 171,000 US patients traveled for an abortion in 2023. By comparison, around 73,000 traveled for abortions in 2019. The sharp increase is indicative of the far-reaching impact of the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, which saw a number of states institute full abortion bans. This includes Texas, a state that saw 14,000 patients travel across the border into New Mexico for abortions last year.
Volodymyr Zelensky
Zelensky risks public anger with new draft plan
Ukraine’s parliament passed this law in May 2023, and former military commander Valery Zaluzhny warned last year that Ukraine needed up to 500,000 more men to repel Russian invaders. In a highly controversial op-ed published in February by CNN, he noted Russia’s “significant advantage … in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.”
Zelensky, who fired Zaluzhny soon after that piece was published, had been reluctant to sign a law he knew would be unpopular. But growing fears that Russia intends to intensify its attacks in coming months have forced his hand.
Ukraine’s president must now hope this move will also signal Ukraine’s urgent need for more weapons and money from its Western allies.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky posted this picture with commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny in announcing his replacement on Thursday Feb 8, 2024.
Ukraine’s president fires his top general
After a week of confusion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has pulled the trigger. He announced Thursday that he had fired Valery Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, 10 days earlier.
For now, the divorce appears amicable. Both men posted a social media photo of the two exchanging smiles and a handshake. Zaluzhny wrote that “A decision was made about the need to change approaches and strategy.” Zelensky posted his gratitude for his general’s “two years of protecting Ukraine.”
The new top general will reportedly be Colonel GeneralOleksandr Syrsky, a man some experts warn is “widely disliked” by many of Ukraine’s frontline troops.
The shake-up isn’t a shock. Zelensky signaled earlier this week that he wants “a reset, a new beginning” for both his government and military. Last year’s deeply disappointing counteroffensive exposed differences between the president and his lead general. It also demanded a political move to reinvigorate public confidence that Ukraine can still win the war.
Will this move yield results? A number of Russian military reshuffles since the invasion have done little more than create an increasingly dangerous battlefield stalemate that encourages the taking of bigger risks on both sides.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky gives a speech at the World Economic Forum.
Zelensky fights for funding
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in many ways battling two wars at once – one against Russian invaders, and another to maintain financial and military support from Western allies. Lately, he’s been facing a deadlock in both.
On Tuesday, Zelensky spoke in front of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and implored the West to ramp up aid. The Ukrainian leader presented the war as a threat not just to his country but to Europe as well, making the case that strengthening Ukraine’s economy would strengthen European security.
"If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken,” Zelensky said.
Frozen conflict, frozen funding. The frontline in the war has barely moved in recent months, as Ukraine creeps toward the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion. But Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin will keep wanting more. “Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products,” Zelensky said
Zelensky’s address came as internal debates in the US and EU continue to delay new aid packages to Kyiv, which has been heavily reliant on outside assistance. But the Ukrainian leader also noted that he’d seen “positive signals” that more EU funding would come soon.
The EU has moved to send €50 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine but has faced a roadblock in the form of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Still, EU leaders have signaled they might take steps to bypass Hungary’s veto when the bloc meets for a summit on Feb. 1.
Meanwhile, there seems to be less hope that the US Congress, which is currently working to avoid a partial government shutdown and has been divided over issues like border security, will be sending more aid to Ukraine anytime soon. But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday told Zelensky in Davos that the Biden administration is “determined to sustain [its] support for Ukraine and [is] working very closely with Congress in order to work to do that.”
Macron to the rescue. As Ukraine anxiously awaits large aid packages from the EU and US, French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday said that Paris in the near future would provide Ukraine with 40 long-range cruise missiles and hundreds of bombs.
US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House.
Zelensky had his work cut out for him in Washington DC
After a marathon few days in New York where he attended the UN General Assembly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Washington on Thursday where he attempted to convince US lawmakers that continuing to fund Ukraine’s war effort is an investment worth making. On Friday, Zelensky traveled to Canada for the first time since the war began.
In Washington, Zelensky met with President Joe Biden at the White House, after which a Biden aide said that the administration would continue to provide Kyiv with military aid, emphasizing new air defenses.
But the White House stopped short of committing to provide Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS – ballistic missiles with a range of up to 190 miles that could fit in Ukraine’s existing rocket launchers – that Zelensky has been requesting since last year.
“US reluctance has been driven primarily by concerns that providing ATACMS to the Ukrainians could lead to a jump in US-Russia tensions,” says Eurasia Group’s Russia expert Alex Brideau, noting that this is “either because of the transfer itself, or if Ukraine were to use the missiles on targets on Russian territory.”
The Ukrainian president had his work cut out for him on Capitol Hill, where he was trying to convince lawmakers to green-light $24 billion in military aid requested by the White House. During the visit, Biden confirmed an extra $325 million in military aid would be doled out, but it is a far cry from the total awaiting approval from Congress.
Dealing with growing opposition to additional funds for Ukraine within his caucus, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy refused to let Zelensky address a joint session of Congress, saying he was able to do so last December. While other lawmakers – particular Senate leadership – were much more deferential to Zelensky, one key question kept coming up on the Hill: What is the plan for victory?