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Russian mercenary Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in military gear.
Wagner's Prigozhin presumed dead
A private aircraft reportedly carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group warlord who launched a failed mutiny against the Kremlin back in June, has crashed outside Moscow, killing all 10 aboard, according to Russian state media.
Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency says it is investigating the cause of the crash in the Tver region north of Moscow, which happened 30 minutes after the jet, headed for St. Petersburg, took off. Moscow says that Prigozhin’s name was included on the passenger list.
Remarkably, some Wagner troops have claimed that the plane was shot down by … Russian defense forces, presumably on Putin’s orders. This has not been confirmed.
For more on the ins and outs of the wild Wagner mutiny see our coverage here and here.
It’s not a huge surprise that the man who posed the biggest threat to Putin’s reign in decades might have turned up dead almost two months to the day since the botched mutiny. At the time, GZERO President Ian Bremmer said it was just a matter of time before Prigozhin would meet his end.
Indeed, when CIA chief Bill Burns was asked recently why Prigozhin was still alive – a nod to the many people who’ve mysteriously fallen out of windows during Putin’s tenure – he implied that the Wagner chief should certainly still be sleeping with one eye open: “Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback,” he said.
Much is still unknown about the circumstances of the crash, but it comes just days after the Wagner chief released a video, the first since June, claiming to be in Africa furthering Russia’s interest throughout the continent. It also coincided with news that Gen. Sergei Surovikin had reportedly been relieved of his command of Russia's aerospace forces.
Looking ahead. Now that the mercenary group is leaderless, what does it mean for Wagner’s vast operations across Africa? What will happen to the reported 10,000 Wagner troops exiled in Belarus? And if it’s confirmed that the Russian military did in fact shoot down the plane, how will the thousands of enraged, battle-hardened Wagner fighters, many of whom listed prison as their last known address, respond?
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks with mercenaries during the withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut in Ukraine.
Wagner Group vs. Russian military, again
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the hardline boss of the Wagner Group mercenary outfit, on Sunday turned down an order for his fighters to sign contracts with the Russian army by the end of June, which Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu says would make Russia's war machine more effective in Ukraine. (On Monday, Chechen warlord and Prigozhin rival Ramzan Kadyrov announced that his men had signed on the dotted line.)
Picking fights with Shoigu, with Kadyrov, or with Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, is nothing new for Prigozhin. But this very public feud is happening as the much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive is officially underway. “Russians in disarray” is not the narrative that Vladimir Putin wants to prevail at this crucial moment in the war.
Failing to rein in the Wagner Group would make it harder for the Russians to coordinate resisting Ukrainian forces as they try to retake Russian-held territory. And that, in turn, would have ripple effects beyond the country's borders: Russia needs to show Ukraine and its allies that it can withstand the advance and that showering Kyiv with more money and weapons is a fool's errand because only Russia can win a war of attrition.
Perhaps the best that Putin can hope for is that Prigozhin ultimately decides that Ukraine is not worth the trouble and follows through on his threat to pull out his soldiers of fortune to seek more lucrative contracts in Africa.
Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks next to the bodies of what he says are Wagner fighters killed in Ukraine.
As Wagner backs down, the battle for Bakhmut continues
On Sunday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group mercenary force fighting for Russia in Ukraine, suddenly reversed his threat of withdrawing from the eastern city of Bakhmut after Moscow reportedly promised to send more bullets. In an expletive-laden video last week, Prigozhin had threatened to pull out entirely if the Russian military continued to starve them of ammo and other equipment.
Prigozhin, a hardcore nationalist who loves to pick public fights with top Russian generals and the defense minister, had given May 9 as the final deadline before "licking our wounds." But it's unclear whether the significance of the date — it's when Russia celebrates victory over Nazi Germany in World War II — alone compelled the Kremlin to patch things up with Prigozhin. (On Monday, Russian airstrikes pummelled Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities on the eve of Victory Day.)
Russia’s military might have been uneasy about Prigozhin handing over Wagner's positions to men loyal to Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov, another Vladimir Putin ally with forces fighting in Ukraine. And more importantly, after all the bloodshed that's gone into the battle for Bakhmut, the last thing Putin wants is to make it easier for the Ukrainians to retake the city when it starts its much-touted spring counteroffensive.