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Marco Rubio speaks after he is sworn in as Secretary of State by U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building in Washington, on Jan. 21, 2025.
Tough talk on Taiwan
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clashed with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in their first phone call on Friday over the independence of Taiwan, according to State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce. During the conversation, Wang reaffirmed China’s position that the island nation is part of China and reportedly told Rubio “I hope you will act accordingly,” a Chinese phrase usually employed by a superior warning a student or employee to behave and act responsibly. Rubio has previously called Beijing the top US threat and was twice sanctioned by China in 2020.
And Rubio may have more wars of words with Wang in the future. China is reportedly ramping up efforts to encourage the independence movement on the Japanese island of Okinawa, which hosts 70% of US bases in the region – and is a mere 466 miles from Taiwan.
Chinese state media frequently highlights US military crimes in Okinawa, and Chinese social media propaganda claims most Okinawans favor independence. A poll published in May 2022 showed that only 3% of residents favored full independence, although 48% supported greater autonomy through a federal arrangement with Tokyo.
Reports suggest Beijing also tried but failed to establish an underground police station in Okinawa and plans to establish a Ryukyu Research Centre to remind locals of the island’s status as a former independent empire until it was annexed by Japan in 1609. Beijing has also been conducting a “charm offensive,” stressing Okinawa’s cultural ties to China – and strengthening its claim to the island.U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., March 18, 2024.
US and China hold high-level talks in Beijing
Jake Sullivan is holding talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Tuesday during his first visit to China as US national security adviser. The two are expected to discuss a variety of issues, including Taiwan, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and US import tariffs on China, as well as Gaza, North Korea, and Myanmar. The meeting follows five previous bilaterals, including secret meetings in Malta, Austria, and Thailand, that aimed to restore high-level communications between Washington and Beijing.
The agenda is packed, but neither side expects significant changes in the relationship, says Eurasia Group’s Rick Waters, formerly the State Department’s top China policy official.
“These talks are more like caring for a garden: If you don't do it constantly, something bad will happen,” he says. “What you can achieve is making sure that when you do certain things, the other side understands why. When the channels break … they tend to make up narratives about what the other is up to.”
By way of example, the US added 42 Chinese firms to a trade restriction list last Friday over their material support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, but don’t expect an overreaction. The US can use these high-level talks to make clear that such actions are reversible if Beijing backs off on supporting Moscow. Without that, says Waters, “There would be some in China who would say these export controls are not really about Russia – that they are about a comprehensive US containment effort to go after Chinese companies.”
Will Biden and Xi meet again? The White House seemed to leave the door open, telling reporters it would “look for opportunities to continue” high-level bilateral discussions “through the end of the year.” US and Chinese Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping are scheduled to be in Brazil for the G20 on Nov. 18 and 19 — conveniently after the US election. We’ll see if they grab a room on the sidelines.
What’s Beijing thinking about Harris? Vice President Kamala Harris’ whirlwind ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket in July surprised Chinese leaders as much as it did the rest of us, and her scant track record on China leaves plenty of unknowns. That said, the question may be more one of tactics than strategy, as Harris has given no indication she intends to depart from Biden’s path.U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan attends a session during the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 16, 2024.
US and China set up back-channel meetings as pressure over Yemen grows
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will reportedly meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi behind closed doors in the coming days to discuss the Middle East and Taiwan.
Several top-level meetings had already been on the public schedule, but this private format – previously used to set the stage for the 2023 Biden-Xi summit as well as to smooth things over after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit to Taiwan – allows a more candid exchange on sensitive issues.
Taiwan on the agenda. The meeting comes just one month after pro-independence candidate William Lai won the Taiwanese presidential elections. As such, it’s a chance for Washington and Beijing – which considers Taiwan to be part of China – to speak frankly about boundaries over the self-governing island, minimizing risks to the stability of the US-China relationship.
But the Houthi issue may be more pressing, as the Iran-backed rebel group’s attacks on Red Sea are posing a broader risk to the global economy. Some 15% of global trade normally passes through the Red Sea, including crucial cargoes of oil, natural gas, and grains. Ships forced to take the 4,000-mile longer alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope add about 10 days time and triple the cost of shipping, raising prices for the producers and consumers who rely on those goods.
The US, which has pounded Houthi positions with airstrikes, has also been asking Beijing to use its good offices with Iran to ask Tehran to restrain the Houthis. Beijing’s reaction has essentially amounted to “sinking ships is bad, but you’re on your own, pal.” In part that may be because the Houthis have promised not to attack Chinese ships, a pledge that some Chinese shipping companies are capitalizing on. Still, if the Red Sea choke-out starts to have wider effects on the global economy, China – still nursing a slow post-pandemic recovery – may start to see things differently.White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 15, 2023.
A Maltese meeting between the US and China
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held “candid, substantive, and constructive” talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Malta over the weekend, in an important step toward stabilizing frayed relations.
The two diplomats agreed to hold more meetings on “political and security developments in the Asia Pacific” and to resume military-to-military contacts.
That’s good news in this environment. Sullivan is just the latest in a train of high-ranking Biden officials to meet with their Chinese counterparts over the last few months. After relations hit a nadir with then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced they would work to patch things up.
But it hasn’t been easy going. There was the spy balloon incident in February, the U.S. export controls on semiconductors, that time when Biden called Xi a dictator, the Shangri-la Dialogue meeting that was canceled – the list goes on. (And don’t forget the magic mushrooms story).
The upshot is that a much anticipated Xi-Biden summit is still in the cards. Still, China’s Ministry of State Security said the prospective meeting — likely at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in San Francisco in November — depends on US “sincerity.” It points to a fundamental problem: For all this year’s trust building work, Beijing has limited confidence in Washington's candor on crucial issues like Taiwan, trade, and technology.(Now former) Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang attends a press conference after talks with his Dutch counterpart Wopke Hoekstra in Beijing.
China's missing foreign minister is out (of a job)
A full month after he vanished from public view, China confirmed the exit of Qin Gang as foreign minister. Qin will be replaced by Wang Yi, who had the job for almost a decade before Qin and is currently the country's most senior diplomat. (Wang also runs foreign policy for the ruling Communist Party, which puts him higher in the CCP pecking order than Qin).
Qin was a rising star who was fast-tracked to the post by Xi Jinping despite a bitter rivalry with Wang. But then he abruptly disappeared, initially for health reasons, as rumors swirled that he was cheating on his wife with a journalist. The Chinese government did not give any reason for his departure.
While the shakeup probably won't have much of an impact on China's foreign policy, which like everything is stage-managed by Xi himself, it might have two spillover effects.
First, with Wang again in charge, Chinese diplomats could feel emboldened to return to aggressive "wolf warrior" rhetoric — right when Beijing is trying to restore dialogue with the US and cool things down with Europe. That said, Wang, 69, will likely only take over the job for one or two years until a suitable replacement is found.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, Qin's departure is (potentially) bad news for his mentor. While state media will quietly sweep the scandal under the rug, the messiness of it all does show that political infighting is still bubbling under the surface even under Xi's tight control of the party. And it highlights one of the main dangers of "Maximum Xi," Eurasia Group's No. 2 top geopolitical risk for 2023: "With few checks and balances left to constrain him and no dissenting voices to challenge his views, Xi's ability to make big mistakes is also unrivaled."
On the one hand, Qin's exit — although probably driven by personal reasons over policy — sure looks like an unforced error by China's leader. On the other, as we've seen with ending zero COVID, Xi also has an uncanny ability to move past screwups very quickly and then act like they never happened.
Photo composite of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping
What We’re Watching: China’s budding diplomacy, Biden’s border control, Russia’s big plans
What’s next for Russia & China?
Russia and China broadcast their friendship to the world on Wednesday as the West freaked out about the possibility of Beijing turning to arm Moscow’s troops in Ukraine. After meeting Chinese top diplomat Wang Yi in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin said that strong Russia-China ties are “important for stabilizing the international situation.” (A tad rich coming from the guy who upended geopolitics by invading Ukraine a year ago.) Putin also confirmed that Xi Jinping would visit Moscow for a summit in the coming months. Wang, for his part, clarified that while their famous partnership “without limits” is not directed against any other nation, it certainly should not be subject to external pressure. He said both countries support “multipolarity and democratization of international relations” – in other words, not a US-led liberal international order. Still, no matter what Western governments say, the Chinese are not so willing to break ties with the US and its allies, mainly because Beijing's trade relations are too important. Meanwhile, we wonder whether the current status of the Russia-China relationship — friends with benefits but complicated — will blossom into a marriage (of convenience) or end in a bad breakup. What we know for sure is that China is getting more involved in the Ukraine conflict generally. Learn more here.
Biden’s tough new move on immigration
The Biden administration this week unveiled a new hardline immigration plan that will likely come into effect after the current pandemic-era immigration policy, known as Title 42, lapses on May 11. It would then stay in place for two years. Under the measure, first revealed last month, asylum-seekers who cross the US southern border illegally or who fail to apply for asylum in the first country they cross through will be banned from applying for asylum in America. This comes after Biden’s team last month introduced a new policy, whereby migrants from Nicaragua, Haiti, Cuba, in addition to Venezuela, would be eligible for “parole” – meaning temporary two-year work visas – only if they apply for asylum from outside the US and if they have a US sponsor. The new plan mirrors a similar policy introduced by former President Donald Trump that was ultimately blocked by the courts. Rights groups, citing a potential threat to humanitarian protections, say they will seek legal action again. Biden has been struggling to contain an uptick in migrants arriving at the southern border in recent months – and the subsequent political backlash. But this plan will infuriate the left flank of the Democratic Party whose support Biden needs as the 2024 presidential race gets underway.
Russia looks beyond Ukraine?
Ukraine is not the only piece of former Soviet ground that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin might like to recapture. Belarus, allied with Russia as part of a “union state” since 1999, has seen Kremlin influence within its borders grow since strongman President Aleksandr Lukashenko called on Putin for help with domestic protests that broke out in response to a rigged 2020 election. Lukashenko has so far resisted pressure from Putin to commit Belarusian troops to the war in Ukraine, but he has allowed Russia to use his country as a staging ground for invasion. This week, a consortium of journalists representing Yahoo News, Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung, and other media organizations published a document they say was obtained from inside Putin’s government that details a Russian plan to essentially annex Belarus by 2030. The 17-page report, titled "Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus" and completed in the summer of 2021, calls for Russian infiltration of Belarus’ politics, economy, and military. Like Ukraine, Belarus is situated on land that has sometimes been ruled by Moscow, and it serves as a forward buffer against further NATO advance toward Russian borders. It’s also consistent with a Kremlin announcement this week that created uncertainty over Russian recognition of the independence of Moldova, another former Soviet Republic. Moldova’s pro-Western President Maia Sandu and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky recently alleged a Russian plan to organize a coup in Moldova.Russian President Vladimir Putin walks to deliver his annual address to the Federal Assembly in Moscow.
What We’re Watching: Putin blames the West, China in Ukraine war, Sunak close to Northern Ireland deal
Putin blames the West … for everything
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin played all the greatest hits Tuesday when he took to the podium for a State of the Union address to Russian legislators and the military just days out from the one-year anniversary of the Ukraine war. In his typically defiant fashion, Putin said that the West “started the war” and warned that Moscow would not back down from its objectives in Ukraine, emphasizing Russian unity on the issue. He also revived the (debunked) justification that the war was crucial to “protect Russia and liquidate the neo-Nazi threat” from Kyiv. Crucially, Putin implied that Russia would break with the New START treaty, which limits Moscow and Washington to deploying 1,550 nuclear weapons a piece, though Russia has reportedly already exceeded that number. Suspending the treaty would also block the US from monitoring compliance. This comes just hours before US President Joe Biden will deliver a speech in Warsaw, where he is expected to again frame the war in Ukraine as a fight for democracy itself.
US-China exchange barbs over Ukraine
China on Monday denied US accusations that it might provide Russia with lethal aid — weapons — to attack Ukraine, telling Washington to stay out of its (albeit complicated) relationship with Moscow. After meeting Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, over the weekend at the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that giving the Russians lethal aid would be a "serious problem" for Beijing, though he didn’t give further details. In the early stages of the war, the US sounded the alarm about Russia asking Beijing for help and China possibly looking to supply Russia with arms, despite the fact that Beijing actually buys weaponsfrom Moscow and doesn't sell any to the Russians. Ultimately, China didn't answer Russia’s plea for arms — likely to avoid Western sanctions. Now, however, Blinken says that Xi Jinping wants to have his cake and eat it too by calling in public for a negotiated peace in Ukraine while privately supplying Russia with all sorts of non-lethal stuff, such as spare parts for Su-35 fighter jets, to help Vladimir Putin defeat Ukraine. This week, we'll be keeping an eye on Wang as he travels to Moscow and perhaps meets with Putin ahead of a big Xi “peace” speech reportedly planned for Friday.
Brexit never (really) ends
As soon as Tuesday, British PM Rishi Sunak aims to finally confirm a deal with the EU on post-Brexit Northern Ireland trade rules. (Once again, this is the arrangement that his predecessor, Boris Johnson, reached with Brussels to avoid a hard border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member state, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK.) Sunak hopes that the agreement will both restart Northern Ireland's power-sharing government, currently boycotted by DUP unionists who want to keep the EU at arm's length, and steal the thunder from hardcore Brexiteers within the Conservative Party led by Johnson who back a bill allowing British ministers to override provisions in the 2020 Brexit agreement. Still, it won’t be easy for Sunak to sell the deal to the DUP, which fears being perceived as selling out to Brussels, and to the Tory Euroskeptics, who want to have a say even if the agreement is not put to a vote in parliament. And all this, mind you, is just one of Sunak's myriad ongoing headaches … with Johnson looking over his shoulder.
A new 1000 Naira note as the Central Bank of Nigeria releases the notes to the public, December 15, 2022.
What We’re Watching: Nigeria’s dwindling cash/patience, Bolsonaro’s next move, China's diplomatic European tour, Armenia’s olive branch
Nigeria’s currency crisis
It’s a little over a week before voters head to the polls in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, and temperatures on the streets are rising amid protests over a cash shortage. In November, outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari began a program of phasing out currencies of high denominations, saying it would help transition the country to a cashless economy and clamp down on the currency black market and inflation. The timing appears odd so close to an election, but Buhari’s explanation has been that the measure will curb vote buying. But fast forward three months, and banks are running low on cash, with people having to line up for hours to withdraw their own savings. After being told by the government to hand in large denomination notes in exchange for new wads of cash, many are being sent home empty-handed. This is particularly problematic because the West African country of more than 213 million is highly reliant on cash, with just 45% having access to a bank account in 2021. Violence is on the rise as frustrated Nigerians take to the streets, which presents increasing governance challenges ahead of the crucial Feb. 25 vote. In a bid to calm things down, Buhari announced Thursday that one of the three banknotes being phased out would remain legal for another two months. For more on what’s at stake, see this Q+A with Eurasia Group’s Africa expert Amaka Anku.
Bolsonaro plans to return home
The famous Brazilian singer Tom Jobim once said, in so many words, living abroad is great, but it’s crap – living in Brazil is crap, but it’s great. Brazil’s right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro seems to agree: After months of self-imposed exile in South Florida, he reportedly plans to return to Brazil in March to lead the opposition against his nemesis, left-wing President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Bolsonaro has been a “Florida Man” since December, after losing to Lula in a presidential election he and his supporters believe was stacked against them. Although Bolsonaro is still hugely popular in Brazil — he lost by less than 2 points — returning is risky. Brazil’s Supreme Court is already investigating his role in the January 8 riots, when thousands of Bolsonaristas ransacked government buildings in the capital, Brasilia. When Bolsonaro arrives, Lula will have a big decision to make. With things as polarized as they are, jailing Bolsonaro or banning him from politics could backfire. Who would know that better than Lula himself? He was imprisoned for corruption in 2018, only to walk free a year later and storm his way back to the presidency.
Beijing’s balancing act
Former Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a chief foreign policy advisor to President Xi Jinping, is on a whirlwind trip to Europe, where he aims to bolster economic ties. On Wednesday, he met with Emmanuel Macron, reportedly asking the French president for help in getting the US to rein in efforts to clamp down on China’s tech sector (the US recently recruited Japan and the Netherlands to join tech export controls on China). Wang is also making stops in Italy, Hungary, and finally Germany, where he’ll attend the Munich Security Conference. Relations between China and the US, as well as much of the EU, have been strained in recent months – to put it mildly. But with Beijing’s economy in decline after years of self-imposed zero-COVID chaos, Beijing is looking for friends with deep pockets wherever it can find them. This might also explain why Wang is reportedly hoping to meet with US Sec. of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of Munich. If it happens, it’ll come just a few weeks after Blinken’s planned visit to Beijing was canceled after a Chinese spy balloon was identified – and subsequently shot down – over US airspace. EU leaders, meanwhile, are unlikely to acquiesce to China unless Beijing starts distancing itself from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.