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North Korea sends troops abroad and builds walls at home
It was barely 24 hours ago when we asked whether North Korea was really sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. The answer appears to be yes, according to South Korean and Ukrainian sources.
They say there are several dozen North Koreans already in Ukraine, helping to operate the launchers for North Korean ballistic missile systems that Pyongyang has supplied to Moscow.
Western governments have long accused North Korea of supplying artillery and other munitions to Russia, but the presence of troops in the theater of combat would mark a substantial deepening of the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership. North Korea and Russia have denied any of this is happening.
Meanwhile, closer to home, North Korea has for the first time acknowledged that it is building a border wall that will completely sever road and rail ties with the South. The project, which had previously been spotted by satellite images, comes as relations between the two Koreas have been steadily deteriorating.
Earlier this year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un for the first time openly rejected the goal of an eventual reconciliation or reunification between the two countries. Now he is backing up words with actual walls.Israel says presumed successor to Nasrallah has been killed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, had died in an airstrike in Beirut, but it has not been confirmed by Hezbollah. News of the purported assassination came the same day that the Israeli military deployed the 146th Division “Ha-Mapatz” to its invasion of southern Lebanon, where it joined three other divisions in attempting to push Hezbollah back from the border area.
Netanyahu reiterated his priority of enabling 60,000 Israeli civilians evacuated from the North to return home. He also warned that Lebanon faces “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza” if the Lebanese people do not “free” themselves of Hezbollah. Israel has urged Lebanese civilians to flee north of the Awali River, about 15 miles north of the border.
The number of troops committed — full-strength Israeli divisions number 10,000 - 15,000 soldiers, though entire divisions are not always deployed simultaneously — tells Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan that Israel is determined to completely scour out a buffer zone, some of which they may occupy.
“Whatever northern boundary they pick, they really want to destroy any Hezbollah infrastructure or potential for presence within that boundary,” he says. “I think the number of troops reflects the difficulty of the challenge and Israeli goals to absolutely dismantle any potential threat Hezbollah could use the buffer area to shell northern Israel.”
The future of modern warfare
Technology in Ukraine is transforming the battlefield in real time. How will it change the US national security strategy? And could what's happening in Ukraine shift China’s President Xi Jinping’s future plans in Taiwan? Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stravridis joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about how technology is creating a “new triad” of warfare, i.e., unmanned systems, cyber and artificial intelligence, and special forces.
Modern conflict no longer requires huge standing armies to fight effectively; just look at Ukraine’s success in the Black Sea. Smaller militaries are increasingly using drones, satellites, and unmanned systems against larger armies. Stavridis says Taiwan is a “resistance fighter’s dream” because of its geography and resources. Plus, it manufactures about half of the world’s computer chips, which China relies on for its technology infrastructure. But Stavridis also warns the same technology is empowering malefactors and terrorist groups, creating dangerous asymmetrical warfare.
“The US will continue to be the preeminent nation at projecting power. China will make a play to do it. Russia, the lights are going to go out,” the Admiral says, “But it’s acts of terrorism and the ability to use weapons of mass disruption, that’s what you need to worry about.”
For more on technology and the transformation of war, check out Admiral Stavridis’ book "2054: A Novel". His newest book, "The Restless Wave", a historical novel about the rise of new technology in the Pacific during WWII, is out October 8.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US
Technology is rapidly changing how modern wars are being fought, and the United States needs to reevaluate its national security priorities to adapt. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Admiral James Stavridis, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to discuss the transformation of war, China’s calculus in Taiwan, and the biggest threats facing the US, both inside the border and abroad. Stavridis warns China is still intent on pursuing its expansionist goals and territorial claims in the South China Sea. He also thinks President Xi Jinping may be looking at Russia’s stalled Ukraine invasion, as well as the global reaction to it, and wondering whether military action in Taiwan is in China’s best interest. Stavridis predicts a “new triad” of warfare–unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, and cyber special forces–will lead armies around the world to shift their focus from personnel and artillery to unmanned systems and AI. While it will lead to reduced costs for traditional militaries, it’s also empowering terrorist groups and malefactors in an increasingly high-stakes game of asymmetrical warfare. Stavridis’ newest book, The Restless Wave, is out October 8.
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Why Giles Duley advocates for the forgotten victims of war
In 2011, documentary photographer Giles Duley had what he describes as his “worst day at the office,” a day when he was critically injured by an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan. He lost both of his legs and his left arm, ended up in the hospital for a year, and was operated on 37 times. Duley was told he would never walk again, but 18 months after nearly being killed, he returned to Afghanistan and was back on the job.
“I realized that if I went back to do the work that I did, I would be better at it. I would have that relationship with the people that I documented that nobody else would,” Duley told GZERO this week in a conversation at the SDG Media Zone during the 79th UN General Assembly.
Duley is now the UN’s first global advocate for persons with disabilities in conflict and peacebuilding situations. He’s dedicated his life to documenting and spreading awareness on the long-term impact of war. Through his organization, Legacy of War Foundation, Duley also works to provide vital assistance to civilians affected by conflict.
With civilian casualties from landmines and explosive ordnance on the rise, particularly in places like Ukraine and Myanmar, Duley’s work could not be more pertinent. He’s calling for greater efforts to clear munitions used in present-day conflicts. If more isn’t done in this regard, Duley warns that “children not yet born will die from these wars.”
Can the US and Philippines get Beijing to back off?
On Monday, 3,500 US and Filipino troops began what could become their largest-ever annual training exercises on the Philippine island of Luzon. This came a day after major multilateral naval drills in the South China Sea and just ahead of a trilateral US-Philippines-Japan summit in Washington on Thursday.
The message to China? Take the US-Philippines alliance seriously.
How we got here: China’s beef with the Philippines is over control of the South China Sea, which Beijing sees as its territory. Manila deliberately beached a ship on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 and has based a small contingent of Marines in the hulk ever since.
But that shell is falling apart, and when Manila tried to send reconstruction supplies last month, Chinese Coast Guard ships blasted the supply vessel with water cannons, immobilizing it and injuring several aboard.
“China is going up to 9 out of 10 of what it can do short of an armed attack on a public vessel, which would likely trigger the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty obligations,” says Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group.
Could it lead to war? Washington hopes displays of allied strength and unity will keep Beijing from crossing the line, but Beijing is equally determined to assert what it sees as sovereign rights.
“This is one of China’s absolute red lines,” says Chan. “The South China Sea is one of their core interests and part of party doctrine, just like Taiwan.”
Thursday’s trilateral will focus on joint efforts to deter China and will likely include announcements of upgraded US-Japan security ties.Why Sweden and Finland joined NATO
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Hanoi, Vietnam.
Was the Swedish and Finnish decision to move into NATO, was that driven by fear of Russia attacking them?
Not really. I don't think either of our countries feel any immediate threat by Russian aggression. But what happened when Russia, Mr. Putin, to be precisely, attacked Ukraine was a fundamental upsetting of the entire European security order. And although Mr. Putin's priority at the moment, he’s very clear on that, is to get rid of Ukraine by invading and occupying all of it, you never know where he's going to stop. And this led Finland and Sweden to do the fundamental reassessment of their security policies. Giving up, in Swedish case, we've been outside of military alliances for the last 200 years or something like that.
So it was not a minor step. And that step has now been taken. Finland completed its ratification, has been a member for a couple of months. Sweden has now formally become a member after some hiccups with the ratification process. It's a major change for our two countries need to say. It is a significant strengthening of NATO. It is a significant strengthening of the security in northern Europe and I think also will facilitate a better coordination between the military alliance of NATO and the security alliance of the EU to the obvious advantage of security of Europe and the security of the West.
It's a good day.
US approves F-16s for Turkey, moving Sweden NATO membership closer
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How are things proceeding with the ratification of the Swedish membership in NATO?
Well, it’s been some back and forth. But now Turkey has ratified and that is important. That has to do with also the agreement with the US on deliveries of F-16s and modification kits of F-16s and deliveries of F-35s to Greece. A major package has been negotiated, so that should be okay. Now, remaining with Hungary. Prime Minister Orban is a slightly unpredictable fellow, but I would guess that he can't hold off for very long. So I would hope, expect this process to be wrapped up within a couple of weeks.
What about British generals and others warning for the danger of a major war in Europe?
There have been a couple of such voices. I don’t think they signify anything that is imminent in terms of dangers, but they signify a concern. What might happen if the war between Russia, the aggression, if that continues? If we don't have sufficient support for Ukraine, if Ukraine doesn't succeed, then that could well be the beginning of a much more major war and a much more severe security challenge for all of Europe. So I think what you hear, from different generals, should be seen in that rather serious light.