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JD Vance stuns Munich conference with critique on European democracy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from the Munich Security Conference. Just finished with the opening speech for Vice President JD Vance. Before that, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Literally standing room only across the conference. I can't remember the last time it was so busy. And so busy because so many people believe that the NATO and the transatlantic alliance are at a crossroads, are facing a time of crisis.
First, the good news. The recognition on the part of the Europeans that action on their part is urgent is pretty consistent across the board. That a 2% spend on defense is not enough, that they have to take much more of a leadership role on Ukraine. That they have to be much more competitive in terms of growth. That indeed many of the criticisms that are being levied on the Europeans by Trump, as well as by Democrats and Republicans in the United States are things they have not taken adequately seriously, and now they do.
I think the level of urgency, the recognition of crisis is true across the board. The willingness to take action is a different story. We will see that over the course of the coming months, but there's no question it is significant.
Go beyond that to what JD Vance had to say. This speech did not include a mention of Russia and Ukraine. This is a speech to the Munich Security Conference to mention separately of elections in Romania overturned by their constitutional court, politicized questions about that to be sure. But not a speech that resonated or landed well for the Europeans in the audience. They were getting a lecture on freedom of speech and democracy from the United States. They were not getting a sense of how strong and secure the alliance needed to be.
JD Vance was talking about democracy for as opposed to protecting from. The Security Conference is of course much more about protecting from. It's about what kind of external threats exist to NATO, which is the reason it exists. And to the extent that Europeans are concerned about the future of NATO, a lot of it is coming from inside the house, a European sense that the Americans are not committed to them anymore. In fact, Defense Minister of Germany, Pistorius actually yelled out during JD Vance's speech, "This is unacceptable." I've never seen anything like that from a European leader during a major US plenary here at the Munich Security Conference before coming here for about 15 years. So that was quite surprising.
Having said all of that, when the vice president met with the German federal president earlier in the day, he was much more willing to talk constructively about working together on Ukraine, especially in terms of having the Ukrainians at the table, including the Europeans. How essential it'd be for everybody to work together to ensure that the Ukrainians can be reconstructed. That they'll have security guarantees and defense.
So to a degree, what we are seeing is a speech for Vance's domestic audience in the United States, as well as some of the anti-EU Euro-skeptic populace in Europe, including the AfD, the Alternative for Deutschland, who, of course, their support is going to the polls in a couple of weeks just like the rest of this country, Germany. But still, the level of tension here is extremely high. The level of trust has been reduced. And pretty much everyone I've talked to in this conference believes that the Russians today are in a considerably stronger position than they were in 48 hours ago. The Chinese are in a stronger position than they were in 48 hours ago. And that's something pretty much nobody in this conference wants to say, wants to hear. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Trump-Putin chat over Ukraine "deeply" worries Europe
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from Munich, Germany, where the Munich Security Conference is just about to kick off. And it is going to be a historic meeting, and not necessarily in a good way.
Everyone I've been speaking to here, deeply concerned about the sudden conversation, 90-minute conversation, with a full readout from, both the Kremlin and from the United States, between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Not so much concerned that a conversation took place, rather that it happened, and Trump is engaging unilaterally without coordinating in advance with the Ukrainians or the Europeans. And in that regard, very, very different than what we've seen over the first three years of the war.
Look, there's no question, everyone does want to see the war wind down. Everyone would love to see a ceasefire. The question is, how and what does the NATO alliance look like after that? What does Europe look like in terms of its engagement, its trust with the United States, the transatlantic relationship? And, of course, what happens with Ukraine? The statements that have been made by Trump and by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth are things that we've heard a lot about privately, not just from the Trump administration, from the Europeans, from the Biden administration too, the idea that NATO membership is not in the cards, long-term, if there's going to be some sort of formal peace agreement, that Ukraine is going to have to give up some kind of territory, not that they should, not that that's reasonable, not they don't have territorial integrity, but there's no way for them to get back all the territory that they had back in 2014. Those are things that have now been said publicly by the Americans. But they are being said both unilaterally and also in advance of any negotiation. In other words, concessions are being made to the Russians before both sides sit down. And that is, of course, a very significant concern, for the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
There is also a question what kind of security guarantees would be provided to Ukraine? According to the United States, certainly will not involve Americans on the ground. No troops. Would be European troops. They're the ones that have to do the bulk of the lifting. They're the ones that have to ensure that there was a response if Ukraine were attacked again, after a ceasefire. Now, it's not that the Americans are suddenly washing their hands of all of this. In fact, the first cabinet official to go to Kiev from the Trump administration, just met with Zelensky in the last 24-hours; that’s Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent. Why Treasury? Because Trump is trying to get something for giving something. It's transactional, as he always is. And in this case, focusing on critical minerals from Ukraine. Nominally, the number is some $500 billion of what would be Ukrainian resources to the United States in return for ongoing, US military support for Ukraine.
Outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, “This is selfish, the Americans shouldn't be doing this.” The Ukrainian president, who actually has to work with the Americans going forward, unlike Scholz, saying, “What a great offer. Happy to talk to you. Want to find a way to make this work?” So, on the one hand, it's not as if the United States is leaving Ukraine high and dry. And certainly, a level of engagement between the Americans and the Russians is very important. It’s essential going forward. But of course, what Putin wants is a deal not only to his favor, but not just about Ukraine. He wants to be talking just to the Americans, and he wants to be talking to them about missile defense, about NATO enlargement, about a whole range of issues that he has, that he takes issue with. And that's something that Trump is perfectly interested in.
At the end of the day, Trump is a lot more interested in cutting a deal for himself that allows the Americans to focus a lot more on China and on Asia, from a security perspective, than working with the Europeans to try to do something collectively on Ukraine. And this is the biggest challenge and also the biggest difference between Trump and Biden, in terms of foreign policy. Biden fundamentally believe that a strong Europe, coordinated with the United States, was long-term in American interests. President Trump does not. He believes that a strong Europe is a bad thing. He wants to see more exits, like Brexit, from other countries. He supports Euro-skeptic movements across Europe. He would much rather have individual negotiations with individual European countries where the Americans are stronger.
What does that mean for the Munich Security Conference? What does it mean for NATO? What does it mean for the transatlantic relationship? Long-term, nothing good. Final point here, the Europeans are taking this seriously, but it's late. They've been told, by Americans for several administrations now, they need to be spending more time and more money on their own defense, their own collective security. Macron has talked about it a fair amount in France. The Polish government is certainly taking the lead on that, especially after the Russians invade Ukraine. But most European governments aren't taking it nearly as seriously and aren't prepared to spend the money. And that reality, for decades now, made much more stark and severe with the Russian invasion in 2014 of Ukraine, which the Europeans did virtually nothing about, and now, when 2022, you've got Trump coming in and saying, “I'm not going to do this,” that's forcing the Europeans in a much more stark way, but also much too late for them to get their act together, in my view.
So, we'll see what we see over the next couple of days, but this is going to be a very, again, historic Munich Security Conference. Glad to be here, and we'll talk to you soon.
This footage, published Sunday (29May2022) shows the Frigate Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov conducts a test firing of Zircon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the test firing hit a target in the White Sea. It was part of a test of new Russian weapons. Russian officials claimed the missile successfully hit a sea target located at a distance of about 1,000 km. Where: Russian Federation
Putin threatens NATO and Ukraine (yet again)
The Ukrainian military brazenly assassinated General Igor Kirillov, who was in charge of Russia's nuclear and chemical weapons forces, on the streets of Moscow on Tuesday by detonating an explosive device. The killing marks the highest-profile assassination by Ukraine since the invasion. Kyiv has accused Kirillov of overseeing the “massive use of banned chemical weapons” in Ukraine. Moscow, meanwhile, has vowed “inevitable retaliation” against the “military and political leadership of Ukraine.”
The assassination came the day after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin warned that he might lift self-imposed restrictions on Russia’s development of short- and medium-range missiles, while warning that the West was pushing on “a red line we can’t step back from.” In a speech to the Defense Ministry, he also signaled that Russia would keep its non-strategic nuclear forces on constant combat alert and increase production of hypersonic ballistic missiles, like the one it fired at Ukraine for the first time last month. Hypersonic missiles travel at five to 25 times the speed of sound, making them difficult to defend against – though some scientistsdoubt their value as offensive weapons. Only the US, China, and India have also flown missiles at hypersonic speed.
There’s nothing new about apocalyptic-sounding threats from the Kremlin, and these warnings are best understood as Putin’s attempt to project strength that might dissuade the Joe Biden administration from providing Ukraine with material help during his final month as president. It’s also meant to frighten European governments away from investing more heavily in Ukraine’s defense.
Finally, Putin wants to maximize Ukrainian, American, and European perceptions of the costs and risks of intensified war with Russia ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the pressure he might apply ahead of his promised negotiations to end the war.
President-elect Donald Trump attends a campaign event, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, U.S., October 29, 2024.
Trump threatens military intervention in the Middle East over Israeli hostages
On Monday, President-elect Donald Trumpposted on social media that “if the [Israeli] hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.”
Quite a threat to issue to an entire region, particularly given Americans’ skepticism of foreign involvement in overseas conflicts. But it’s a low-probability, high-risk sort of scenario, given that Trump did not specify who he would attack or how.
Meanwhile, at least 97 hostages or their remains are still in Gaza, and the Israeli military believes at least 35 of that group are dead. Hamas is also believed to be holding two corpses of Israeli soldiers killed a decade ago, and two living Israelis captured in 2014 and 2015.
While Trump’s threat is unlikely to lead to imminent hostage releases, we’ll be watching for any movement.
Putin's strategy in Ukraine ahead of Trump's return
Putin has been warning them not to do that. They decided they were going to, the Russian response has been to formally change their nuclear doctrine so that they would be considered to be in a state of war legally against any country that allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia. In other words, essentially, Russia is claiming that they're now at war with France, with the UK, with the United States. And also, the Russians used a medium range missile hypersonic nuclear capable directly against the Ukrainian target in Dnipro.
In other words, what we're seeing from Putin is, "I'm showing you what you're doing is moving towards World War III, and that's how I'm responding." Does that mean that Putin is actually escalating towards direct war with NATO allies? The answer to that is no. He wasn't doing that when he was losing the battle in Ukraine in the early months. He's certainly not doing it now that he's winning.
And he is winning. He has more troops on the front lines, including those from North Korea, those from Yemen, those that he's getting from other countries. Also, he's taking more territory on the ground in Ukraine at a faster pace now, more significant amounts of territory in Southeast Ukraine than at any point since the opening months of the war. Plus Trump is President-elect. Trump has said, "I want to end this war." And he is coming in just in a couple of months.
So what Putin is doing is not threatening World War III. He's instead showing off just how bad this Biden policy is, this existing NATO policy is. He's making it easier for Trump to pivot away and say, "I'm the peacemaker. We were heading towards World War III, this horrible escalation. I'm the guy that got the great deal done and look how brilliant I am." Putin is facilitating that.
Now, of course, to make that happen Trump still has to give Putin something that he wants. He has to give an outcome that is acceptable to Putin. And Putin's made clear, at least thus far, that he's not going to give up any territory that he has. That he's not prepared to accept that Ukraine would be able to join NATO. He's also said that Ukraine can't continue to have a functional armed forces which is something that would be completely unacceptable to Ukraine.
The devil's going to be in the details here. There clearly is an opportunity for Trump to end the war. He's promised he's going to end the war, and I think he can. I think he can create a ceasefire. The Ukrainian leadership has already made clear that they are supportive of ending the war, but they're not just going to listen. There has to be a back and forth conversation with the Americans. Seeing what it is that Trump is prepared to put forward, and whether or not the Russians are capable of accepting it, are willing to accept it. Even though it will look like a win for Russia compared to where they would've been under Biden, under Harris, or at any other point in the last couple of years.
Still, if you are Putin, there is an open question. You're taking land right now. The Ukrainians don't have the people to continue to put up a strong defense. Why wouldn't you delay this out for another three, another six months? Take more land. Try to get all the territory that you have formally annexed over the course of the war. Why not settle the war on your terms? A lot easier to do if you're winning than losing. And the question there will be to what extent Trump is willing to cause material punishment to Putin if he doesn't say yes.
And that's an open question. Trump historically has been willing to take easy wins that don't necessarily play well over the long term. Look at Afghanistan. He wanted to get the Americans out. He cut a deal with the Taliban. It was a deal that was clearly very advantageous from a military and from a governance perspective for the Taliban than it was for the United States. He cut that despite the fact that the allies were not supportive or coordinating. That undermined the US deeply. Biden then continued with that plan. And it was one of the biggest losses that the US has experienced over the last four years.
Now, that of course, was a loss that ultimately fell on Biden. This would be a loss that would ultimately fall on Trump. And so does he want to risk that? That's a very interesting question. And of course, you also have to look at Trump's staff because he can make a phone call with Zelensky and with Putin, but ultimately, it is the secretary of state, the national security advisor and others that are going to have to work out the details of that agreement. And those people, at least thus far, are not people that are oriented towards giving away the store to Putin. They're people-oriented towards mistrust of Putin, towards a hard line against the Russians, towards support of Ukraine.
I am thinking here that number one, there's a reasonably high chance that Trump can get the win that he wants, but number two, this isn't likely to be a walk in the park for the Russian president. The Europeans need to play here as well. And what will be important, there's been a few formulated conversations thus far between President-elect Trump and some of the European leaders.
They haven't gone very far, but they've also not blown up the bilateral relationships. Their ability to work with Trump advisors on Trump, and on a greater coordination of what an ultimate solution or settlement of the Russian-Ukraine war would be, will make a dramatic difference as to what extent this is sustainable. To what extent this leads to not only Ukraine that can continue to defend itself and the territory that it is left with, but also can integrate into Europe, can be politically successful as a democracy over time. And that NATO will stay strong and stay together and stay aligned with the United States because they don't have another choice. There is no autonomous European military capacity. It's either NATO sticks together or it fragments.
Those are all things that we're going to watch very carefully over the course of the next couple months. But for now, an escalatory period. And it's all performative and it's all oriented towards what happens when Trump becomes president. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
2024-01-10 Vilnius Lithuania. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky visits Lithuania on Wednesday 10 of January 2024. Lithuanian foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis meets Zelensky in airport.No Use Lithuania. No Use Estonia. No Use Latvia.
Russia’s escalation sparks NATO anxiety
NATO and Ukrainewill hold emergency talks on Tuesday after Russia attacked a military facility near the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with a hypersonic missile last Thursday. The attack came in retaliation forUkraine striking Russia earlier in the week with US-made ATACMS, after US President Joe Biden greenlit the use of the weapons.
Upping the ante. Russian President Vladimir Putin claims Moscow’snewly developed “Oreshnik” missile is “unstoppable” by western defense systems, travels at 10 times the speed of sound, and that even with conventional warheads, “the massive use of the weapon would be comparable in effect to the use of nuclear weapons.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky described the use of the Oreshnikas a “clear and severe escalation” in the nearly three-year-old war.
But it also represents a new threat to continental Europe. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed concern. “The war in the east is entering a decisive phase, we feel that the unknown is approaching,” he said, whileHungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — a long-standing pal to Putin — said Russia’s threat of additional strikes should be taken seriously and warned “there will be consequences.” We’ll be watching how NATO leaders balance bolstering Ukraine’s defenses with increasing its offensive capability, given how Putin reacted to long-range strikes.Attendees gather near tactical ballistic missile launchers during a ceremonial event to mark the delivery of new tactical ballistic missiles to North Korean troops at an undisclosed location in North Korea, August 4, 2024 in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korea sends troops abroad and builds walls at home
It was barely 24 hours ago when we asked whether North Korea was really sending troops to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. The answer appears to be yes, according to South Korean and Ukrainian sources.
They say there are several dozen North Koreans already in Ukraine, helping to operate the launchers for North Korean ballistic missile systems that Pyongyang has supplied to Moscow.
Western governments have long accused North Korea of supplying artillery and other munitions to Russia, but the presence of troops in the theater of combat would mark a substantial deepening of the Moscow-Pyongyang partnership. North Korea and Russia have denied any of this is happening.
Meanwhile, closer to home, North Korea has for the first time acknowledged that it is building a border wall that will completely sever road and rail ties with the South. The project, which had previously been spotted by satellite images, comes as relations between the two Koreas have been steadily deteriorating.
Earlier this year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un for the first time openly rejected the goal of an eventual reconciliation or reunification between the two countries. Now he is backing up words with actual walls.FILE PHOTO: Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine speaks during the funeral of Mohammed Nasser, a senior Hezbollah commander who was killed by what security sources say was an Israel strike on Wednesday, in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon July 4, 2024.
Israel says presumed successor to Nasrallah has been killed
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor to slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, had died in an airstrike in Beirut, but it has not been confirmed by Hezbollah. News of the purported assassination came the same day that the Israeli military deployed the 146th Division “Ha-Mapatz” to its invasion of southern Lebanon, where it joined three other divisions in attempting to push Hezbollah back from the border area.
Netanyahu reiterated his priority of enabling 60,000 Israeli civilians evacuated from the North to return home. He also warned that Lebanon faces “destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza” if the Lebanese people do not “free” themselves of Hezbollah. Israel has urged Lebanese civilians to flee north of the Awali River, about 15 miles north of the border.
The number of troops committed — full-strength Israeli divisions number 10,000 - 15,000 soldiers, though entire divisions are not always deployed simultaneously — tells Eurasia Group’s Cliff Kupchan that Israel is determined to completely scour out a buffer zone, some of which they may occupy.
“Whatever northern boundary they pick, they really want to destroy any Hezbollah infrastructure or potential for presence within that boundary,” he says. “I think the number of troops reflects the difficulty of the challenge and Israeli goals to absolutely dismantle any potential threat Hezbollah could use the buffer area to shell northern Israel.”