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Will the Trump-Musk relationship last?
How long will President Donald Trump’s relationship with Elon Musk last? The alliance has so far defied predictions from the left (and parts of the right) that a relationship between two famously impulsive and mercurial billionaires would eventually lead to conflict. Instead, Musk is everywhere in the Trump administration—attending cabinet meetings, shaking hands with world leaders, smiling in the Oval Office. Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has embedded itself across nearly every federal agency. In many ways, the relationship is mutually beneficial: Musk has an almost limitless checkbook to bankroll Trump’s political operations, and DOGE is helping him deliver on a campaign pledge to “shatter” the deep state. Meanwhile, Musk has become the most powerful person in Washington, not named Trump. But the president also has a history of discarding allies when they are no longer valuable and many of his close advisors have become his harshest critics. So, can the Trump-Musk alliance survive for the long haul, or is it destined to go up in flames?
Watch the upcoming episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television this weekend (check local listings) and at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld.
Trump through the looking glass
The shocking US pivot to Russia has sent the world through the political looking glass and into the upside-down era of Trumpland. Is the US abandoning its historic allies in NATO, Europe, and Canada in favor of … Russia?
The short answer is yes. For now.
Let’s start with exhibit A: the inversion of facts to justify the abandonment of Ukraine.
President Donald Trump has, to steal a Lewis Carroll phrase by the QAnon movement, followed the white rabbit down the disinformation hole. According to him, Ukraine started the war, not Russia. “You should’ve never started it,” Trump said this week about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “You could’ve made a deal.”
Wait, what?
Didn’t the war start when Vladimir Putin invaded Crimea in 2014? Didn’t it escalate when he invaded the country — three years ago this Saturday — in February 2022, bombing cities and trying to assassinate Zelensky?
Those are the facts that NATO nations have long accepted … because they are true. Putin was the dictator who started the war, and Zelensky the defender of democracy.
Not for Trump.
He now calls Zelensky “a Dictator without Elections,” not Putin. Parroting Russian propaganda, Trump claims that Zelensky has only 4% support in his country and so has no standing to be part of the peace negotiations.
“Curiouser and curiouser,” as Alice said, gazing around the new world of Wonderland. This just doesn’t make much sense.
Once you go through the political looking glass, the flow of disinformation threatens to overwhelm reality. Fact-checking is suddenly seen as a radical form of partisanship, but it shouldn’t be. Facts are facts. The truth is, in the last presidential election, Zelensky won 73% of the vote. It is also true that, since then, the war and martial law in Ukraine delayed the elections that were scheduled for last May, and concerns about that are legitimate. But as the UK prime minister pointed out, during World War II, Britain also suspended elections.
Zelensky responded in fury, saying that Trump “lives in this disinformation space.”
Europe is reeling at the pivot — suddenly aware that their closest ally and friend has shifted toward Russia. European leaders, who have been holding a series of emergency meetings, are now realizing that if they want to defend themselves from Russia, they have to do it themselves. It’s not so much a wake-up call as a lifesaving shock from a political defibrillator. But it will be expensive and fraught with internal obstacles.
The sense of betrayal in the EU is overwhelming. Kaja Kallas, vice president of the European Commission, described this as “appeasement,” while Friedrich Merz, the man most likely to lead Germany after Sunday’s election, called it “a classic reversal of the role of perpetrator and victim.”
Even former British Prime Minster Boris Johnson, who supports the idea of helping Trump end the war, couldn’t defend the absurdity of Trump’s view. “Of course Ukraine didn’t start the war. You might as well say that America attacked Japan at Pearl Harbor,” he wrote.
The truth is that European leaders are in full panic, watching the postwar multilateral world they worked so hard to build on the foundation of US support collapse.
Meanwhile, the Russians aren’t just throwing a Lewis Carroll-like tea party but a Kremlin-sponsored vodka chug-a-thon. The Russians have long courted far-right MAGA types like Tucker Carlson through their common interest in fighting “woke” culture and promoting Christian nationalism — all while maintaining their focus on weakening NATO and breaking up the alliance. Even they can’t believe their success.
“If you’d told me just three months ago that these were the words of the US president, I would have laughed out loud,” Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president wrote, not bothering to hide his gloating. “Trump is 200 percent right.”
“He is the first, and so far, in my opinion, the only Western leader who has publicly and loudly said that one of the root causes of the Ukrainian situation was the impudent line of the previous administration to draw Ukraine into NATO,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, cementing Russian propaganda as a Trumpian truth.
As I argued last week, this is part of Trump’s empire state of mind, his neo-imperialist goal of dividing the world into spheres of influence controlled by strongman leaders in countries like Russia and China. China is seeing all this through the lens of invading Taiwan, something that must look far more palatable to the current US administration as it retreats from its role as a global police officer and looks increasingly likely to join the mob looting weaker sovereign territories. Small countries who get in the way — Ukraine in this case, the Panamanians in another, and maybe Taiwan — have little or no say in the outcomes.
Other countries that have been threatened by Trump, like Canada, are watching nervously. After all, the propaganda Putin uses to talk about Ukraine — there is an artificial border where one never should have existed, that Ukrainians actually want Russia to come and protect them — sounds eerily familiar to the language Trump has used about Canada. He has called the US-Canada border an “artificially drawn line” and claimed, without proof, that most Canadians would welcome the US taking over the country to offer protection.
Earlier today, just hours before the 4 Nations hockey final between the US and Canada, Trump made it political. The event has been supercharged by the political climate to the point where Canadian fans booed the US national anthem during a round-robin matchup last weekend in Montreal. Expect the Canadian anthem to receive a similar treatment tonight in Boston. “I’ll be calling our GREAT American Hockey Team this morning to spur them on towards victory tonight against Canada, which with FAR LOWER TAXES AND MUCH STRONGER SECURITY, will someday, maybe soon, become our cherished, and very important, Fifty First State,” Trump posted.
The threats are by now familiar, but the pivot toward Russia adds a more concerning element. Once he went through the looking glass and accepted the lie that Ukraine started the war, Trump implicitly accepted the idea that a manufactured threat can be a justifiable pretext for the most radical action.
Trump 1.0 already used the pretext of national security to slap tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and his Trump 2.0 tariff wars and threats are no different. What happens when Canada responds in kind with reciprocal tariffs designed to hurt the US economically? Will it be long before Canada is accused of starting the tariff war? Does that quickly evolve into a pretext for more drastic US action to make Canada the 51st state? After all, it is just … self-defense.
All this sounds like phantasmagorical, political hyperventilating, and frankly paranoid. The rhetoric about the US taking over Canada the way Russia invaded Ukraine must be a joke, a trick to gain the upper hand in good old-fashioned trade negotiations. Right? Right?
Let’s hope.
But then, Trump has a Napoleonic view of his powers and the rule of law. “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law,” he posted on social media last weekend. If he does not see himself bound by US constitutional law, why would he feel bound by international law?
This US pivot toward Russia marks the most dangerous threat to the multilateral world’s adherence to the rule of law and the NATO alliance in general. It is not a bug of the Trump presidency; it is a feature. Everything has changed. “I can’t go back to yesterday because I was a different person then,” Alice says as she absorbs what has happened to her.
The Western world can’t go back either. There is malice in Wonderland now, and it is no longer just Russia; it’s the United States itself.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy gives a press conference in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 19, 2025.
Trump feuds with Zelensky, cozies up to Putin
The war of words between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hit a new nadir on Wednesday after Trump labeled Zelensky a “dictator” who “has done a terrible job.” Trump criticized Zelensky for imposing martial law and suspending elections, ignoring the fact that both actions were taken because of Russia’s invasion and ongoing war.
Reaction has been swift. Both British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned Trump’s remarks and expressed support for Zelensky’s legitimacy. In contrast, Russia’s ambassador to the UK, Andrei Kelin, praised the Trump administration for having “an understanding of what (Russia) is doing, why we are doing it, and what should be the outcome of it … For the first time we have noticed that [the US] are not simply saying that this is Russian propaganda and disinformation.”
Why does MAGA support Moscow? Anti-Ukraine sentiment dates back to a false MAGA narrative that blamed Ukraine, not Russia, for interference in the 2016 election. Putin also finds favor with Trump supporters for being “completely clear and completely correct on the society-destroying nature of wokeness and postliberal leftism,” in the words of right-wing writer Rod Dreher.
What’s next for Ukraine? The US and Russia agreed in Riyadh to designate teams to negotiate the end of the war and to reestablish diplomatic channels. French President Emmanuel Macron and Starmer will meet with Trump in Washington, DC, next week, while Zelensky is meeting with Washington's Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, this Thursday. Time is of the essence: On Truth Social, Trump threatened that “Zelensky better move fast or he is not going to have a country left.”The McGill University campus.
HARD NUMBERS: Foreign no-shows in Canadian schools, Ontario makes a big call to doctors, Dastardly dye dies in US, Gringo companies send toxic waste south
100: Meanwhile, the government of Ontario is looking to have 100 foreign-trained doctors licensed to practice in high-need communities such as Sudbury, Goderich, and Huntsville. This comes after the province missed its initial target of 50 by the end of 2024. The program aims to address shortages in primary care physicians as older doctors retire and population growth continues.
3: This isn’t only a hard number, it’s a red number. Red 3, to be precise, is a food coloring that is being banned in the US, food safety regulators announced Wednesday. The bright red petroleum-based dye — used in candies, soft drinks, pills, baked goods, and, famously, maraschino cherries — has been found to cause cancer in lab animals. The move is a victory for consumer protection groups that have sought the dye’s death for decades. Food producers have two years to replace it in their products, and pharma companies get an extra year beyond that.
200,000: US companies sent some 200,000 tons of toxic waste to a single processing plant in Monterrey, Mexico, in 2022. Researchers recently found extremely high levels of neurotoxins in the soil surrounding the Zinc Nacional plant, which treats the dust generated from recycling metal junk — such as cars, electronics, and appliances — and turns it into fertilizers and other products. Lead contamination levels alone in homes near the plant were found to be more than 60 times higher than what the US considers safe.President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, DC, on Nov. 13, 2024.
Opinion: A Trumpian storm is brewing
For months on the campaign trail and in a crescendo last week at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Trump has made promises to American voters. On foreign policy, this list includes everything from ending the war in Ukraine within six months of taking office and imposing “all hell” if the Israeli hostages are not released before Inauguration Day (with a ceasefire deal coming into view) to his more recent discussions about taking control of the Panama Canal.
In anticipation of Trump’s return, the world has been packing their go-bags and considering how best to prepare. The Trump administration the world has been preparing for, however, may not be the one it gets. It is becoming increasingly clear how distinctly different Trump’s current worldview is than what came before him – including what he envisioned during his first term.
Differing tactics
Unlike the administration of Joe Biden, which leaned heavily on consensus building, non-binding partnerships like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and negotiations ad infinitum, Trump’s tactics have always been different. The businessman-president trades in grievances. He looks for the points of disparity and deploys (largely economic) tools like tariffs and sanctions to bring his “adversaries” closer to his preferred position – and to advance what he sees as America’s best interests. During his first term, for instance, Trump walked back a threat to impose tariffs on Mexico’s goods only after its government agreed to a deal stemming the flow of migrants along the southwestern border.
From his post-election personnel decisions, policy proposals, and posts on Truth Social, it seems clear Trump will continue to deploy these tactics in his second term. But what is also emerging is a Trump foreign policy agenda that’s radically different from Trump 1.0. Then “America First” focused on immigration, bringing jobs and manufacturing home, with a significant focus on reorienting global supply chains. With the exception of the January 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, Trump largely avoided telegraphed security operations.
An aspirational agenda
Now, Trump has seemingly set his sights on a much more ambitious set of priorities. In 2025, Trump is speaking of the dawn of “the golden age of America.” Making America Great Again looks less like an isolationist story and more like a no-stone-uncovered one. As Trump scans the horizon looking for the angles, he has put his neighborhood, Europe, and the world on notice that almost nowhere will go unconsidered.
To the North, Trump’s December announcement that he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada set off a chain reaction that ultimately led to an already-fragile Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Trump’s repeated barbs about Canada becoming the 51st US state and musings about removing the “artificial line” separating the two countries have continued to destabilize the political landscape. Canadian officials are reportedly drawing up their own list of American products to tariff should Trump make a move. To the South, Mexico has also been forced to respond to Trump's tariff and border vows. After he suggested renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, President Claudia Sheinbaum went tit-for-tat with Trump proposing to call the US, America Mexicana.
Across the Atlantic Ocean, headline-grabbing claims about acquiring Greenland initially generated chuckles in Europe. His threat to tariff Denmark at a very high level to open the door for negotiations over Greenland is Trump 1.0. His articulated vision of needing Greenland for national security purposes (and ultimately access to the Arctic’s resources) while refusing to rule out the use of military coercion are hallmarks of the emerging new Trump foreign policy.
In Trump 2.0, anywhere is up for grabs (a real estate deal), and economic tools of national security will be backed up by more traditional force posturing. The lesson of the moment appears to be that the best countries can hope for is to stay out of Trump’s crosshairs. America’s EU allies, for their part, have responded by taking Trump’s ideas increasingly seriously. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot issued reminders of the inviolability of European borders, but European capitals are rattled.
In his news conference last week, Trump speculated that “since we won the election the whole perception of the whole world is different.” It is not just the case that the US and its voters may see themselves differently since Trump’s reelection, but the world has somehow been changed by it.
Still, according to Trump, “big problems remain that need to be settled.” The president-elect has spent the post-election period throwing up dozens of foreign policy trial balloons to clarify how he would like to see these problems settled. As the clock winds down to his inauguration, Trump’s more grandiose foreign policy vision may soon move many targets into the eye of the storm.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
Six issues that will shape US-Canada relations in 2025
In December, Justin Trudeauwarned that dealing with President-elect Donald Trump would be “a little more challenging” than last time around.
With Trump threatening massive tariffs that would hit Canada hard, taking aim at the country’s anemic defense spending, criticizing its border policy, eyeing its fresh water, and more, 2025 will indeed be a rocky time for US-Canada relations. But Trudeau might not be around for much of it. Down in the polls and facing calls from a majority of his caucus to resign, Trudeau is mulling his future and could resign any day.
Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievreis heavily favored to win the upcoming federal election, which would make Trump his challenge – a challenge Canadians, in fact, prefer the Conservative leader take on over his Liberal opponent.
Whoever leads Canada in the months to come, these are the top US-Canada issues they’ll be focused on:
1. Trade and tariffs
Trade between the US and Canada is worth over $900 billion a year, so the exchange of goods and services will be a top issue regardless of who’s in office. But Trump’s threat to levy a 25% tariff on imports has taken it to another level. The tariffs would raise prices in the US and hit Canadian industry, particularly the energy, automotive, and manufacturing sectors, with added costs. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce predicts the tariffs, and Canadian retaliation, would cost Canada roughly CA$78 billion – 2.6% of its GDP – a year and lead to recession. Canadian exports to the US would plummet, says the Chamber, with a predicted 60% drop in the mining and quarrying industries, 39% in m0tor vehicles, and 27% in metals – which would be costly for both countries. Ontario, the country’s most populous province and home to its auto sector, would be hit especially hard – which is why Premier Doug Ford is threatening to stop energy exports to the US if Trump proceeds with his plan.
The economic harm to Canada would be exacerbated by the fact that Ottawa would likely respond with its own retaliatory duties. The Trudeau government is working to secure an exemption from the policy for Canada but hasn’t managed to yet. But energy experts say they expect the tariffs won’t apply to Canadian oil either way.
Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group’s global macro-geopolitics practice, says Trump’s tariff threat is real but also part of the incoming president’s strategy. He’s trying to gain concessions on issues of concern, including border security and the (very limited) flow of fentanyl from north to south, and the US trade deficit with Canada ahead of the looming renegotiation of the USMCA.
Thompson notes that Canada is in a weak bargaining position given that it’s utterly dependent on its trade relationship with the US, “and for that reason, doesn’t have a lot of cards to play.” He also expects that even if Canada does secure an exemption on tariffs, Trump will be prepared to threaten them again in the future as leverage in any given negotiation.
“This is not a one-and-done,” Thompson says. “I think this is a mode of operations that will repeat several times for the next four years over a variety of issues.”
2. A (metaphorical?) border wall
Trump has made border security central to his tariff threat, arguing that the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants across the border poses a public safety threat to the US. Canada is already developing a border security plan to respond to Trump’s concerns. It’s also scrambling to prepare for a possible rise in asylum claims – which will exacerbate the current backlog – and irregular border crossings if Trump goes ahead with his plan for mass deportations.
Canada was already revising its immigration policy before Trump won, but it may introduce further restrictions – and continue to toughen its rhetoric – in the coming months. After Trump’s win, Immigration Minister Marc Miller said “not everyone is welcome” to go to Canada, emphasizing that his government was ready to work with the Trump administration on border security. At the same time, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Canada was sticking to its new immigration plan, which would see fewer newcomers admitted to the country.
The Trudeau government reduced its immigration targets in October and cut the number of international students it welcomes. Its border security plan includes CA$1.3 billion in spending around five pillars that include a commitment to “detecting and disrupting the fentanyl trade” and “minimizing unnecessary border volumes,” including an end to flagpoling – or allowing temporary residents to leave the country (typically to the US) and return immediately to access immigration services at the border. But that may not be enough.
Thompson says leaders of the current government are “overestimating their ability to manage what is coming.” He notes future demands from Trump could include “tighter screening of regular immigrants into Canada. That means that much like with tariffs, the Canadian government may end up managing cascading demands from Trump, so no single promise or plan will likely be sufficient to placate the incoming US president.
3. Defense spending and securing the Arctic
US administrations, including Biden’s, have pressured Canada to increase its defense spending and hit NATO’s 2% of GDP target for years. In April, the Trudeau government outlined a plan to boost spending, focused in large part on building armed forces capacity in the Arctic. The new initiatives total roughly CA$81 billion over two decades and will push the country toward 1.76% of GDP by 2030. In December, the government announced a further adjustment to its Arctic presence, which will include more air and naval equipment, and a renewed cooperation strategy in the region with the US in the face of Russian and Chinese regional interests.
So far, Trump administration officials and other Republicans seem unimpressed with Canada’s defense plan. Former Trump ambassador to Canada, Kelly Craft, said the country could “do better.” That means spending more – and faster – especially since Trump has reportedly considered asking NATO allies to spend a whopping 5% of GDP on defense spending. He’s also threatened to leave countries that fail to spend more to fend for themselves against foreign aggression.
Philippe Lagassé, associate professor and Barton Chair at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs at Carleton University, says Canada could raise military spending by increasing pay, boosting operations expenditures, and contracting more for services. He says procurement of military hardware would take longer. But in the face of financial constraints, such new spending would require raising taxes, growing the deficit, cutting other programs, or some combination of the three – which could prove a challenge for the current government or its eventual replacement.
Arctic defense may prove to be a smoother issue. “The US has been trying to get Canada to do more in the region for a while,” Lagassé says, “and we've responded to that. I don’t see that as a point of tension.”
“If anything,” he adds, “the US will be glad if we just get our act together because their sovereignty considerations up there are less than ours, and they have capabilities up there that we don’t, but they do want us to actually get our act together around it.”
So, while Canada may feel the pressure on defense spending – and may need to come up with a faster, heftier plan to placate Trump, it can always point to progress in the Arctic and is likely to do so.
4. Water, water everywhere?
In September, Trump floated an idea to solve California’s drought problems: import water from British Columbia. As Trump put it, the province has “a very large faucet” that, once turned, could supply drought-stricken US states with fresh water. Experts point out that Canada doesn’t, in fact, have water to spare, and Canada can’t just turn on a “faucet” to divert water to the US.
The water Trump referred to, coming from the Columbia River, is already spoken for, in part through an existing treaty between the US and Canada – the Columbia River Treaty, which sets out rules governing flood controls, dams, and hydroelectric power generation.
That arrangement is in the process of being modernized to account for new developments, including climate change. The Biden administration and the Trudeau government recently reached an agreement in principle after years of work that began during the first Trump administration. But this time around, should Trump decide to maintain an interest in water flows north to south, the terms of the treaty could – like free trade – come back up for negotiation, with the faucet on the table.
5. Critical minerals. It’s in the name
The US and Canada share several other areas of cooperation and competition, but one is of immediate interest that could incentivize working together. Both countries are spending big on critical mineral development, including co-investments in a development in Yukon.
Critical minerals are central to cellular phones, the electric vehicle industry – in which both the US and Canada are investing heavily – and national defense. So whatever other tensions shape US-Canada relations, cooperation on critical minerals will remain a shared goal, especially as the two countries look to rival Chinese and Russian interests in related sectors.
6. Setting limits on Big Tech
Both countries are also taking on big tech giants, such as Google, through anti-monopoly investigations lawsuits. Still, the US is pushing Canada to drop its 3% digital services tax on big tech companies, including Google’s parent company Alphabet. The Biden administration requested a dispute resolution process for the tax, claiming it unfairly targets big US tech firms. The Trump administration is likely to press the issue, too, which may leave the policy as a pawn in one set of negotiations – say, over tariffs – or another.
Does Canada have any leverage to rely on? Canada has some cards to play against Trump, but it’s not clear who’ll be playing them. The Trudeau government, down roughly 25 points in the polls, is not long for this world – and Trudeau himself may resign any day. The country is due for an election by the fall, but it could come much earlier.
Regardless of who’s in power, however, they’ll likely deploy the playbook from the last time Canada had to manage its relationship with Trump. That means working contacts in states, particularly border states in which the Republicans have an interest in winning or currently govern and contacts in Washington. Then, they work the message about Canadian, and shared, interests up to Trump. There’s also the threats of retaliatory tariffs and halting certain trade, like Ford’s threat to cut off energy to border states.
Together, pulling these levers may yield some results, but Canada is in for tough negotiations and is unlikely to emerge from them unscathed.
President-elect Donald Trump attends the 2024 Senior Club Championship award ceremony at his Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, back in March.
Don’t Panic: 4 Rules for Responding to Trump Threats
Amid all the geopolitical chaos, the best advice of the year: Don’t panic.
As they dined at Mar-a-Lago on a main course of tough, over-cooked tariff talk, President-elect Donald Trump suggested to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — in what the Canadians present later called a joking manner — that Canada might make a good 51st state. Naturally, people freaked out. First, Trump threatens to destroy the Canadian economy with 25% tariffs on everything, and now this? An invasion?
As the breathless coverage spilled over the international media, my colleague Gerry Butts went on Bluesky with a message: “Trump used this 51st state line all the time with Trudeau in his first term. He’s doing it to rattle Canadian cages. When someone wants you to freak out, don’t.”
It is sound advice. Don’t freak out.
Canada is no more going to become the 51st state in the next four years than California, British Columbia, and Oregon are going to break away and become Cascadia. Jokes are not policy.
So what’s up?
Trump is a zero-sum negotiator. He uses the powerful leverage he has to create “I win, you lose” deals. Threats give him a real negotiation advantage before the actual negotiations happen. That is the prerogative of the Big Dog countries, especially those run by strongmen, mercantilist leaders like Trump. Trump threats are simply the expected prelude to any deal. But what is real and what is rhetoric? And how to respond?
Invasion: Rhetoric. Dismiss.
Tariffs: Real. Discuss.
Rule One: Stick With Facts. Don’t get caught up in the torrent of tweets and taunts. Don’t give anything away until the actual negotiations start. Facts are your best friends.
Facts? Really? You might think that since Trump has ushered in the post-fact world, facts are a diminishing currency. That is a dangerous bet. For example, at the root of the 51st state jab are the much more dangerous Trump threats to slap 25% tariffs on all goods coming in from Canada and Mexico. Trump based this threat on what he says is the heavy flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants across the border.
Initially, that threat caused panic. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith immediately went into appeasement mode, telling the CBC’s Power and Politics, “It’s incumbent, I believe, on the federal government, along with all of the provinces, to work together to address those concerns if we want to be able to avoid these devastating tariffs that’ll hurt all of us.”
She’s not wrong that the Trump rhetoric needs to be addressed, which is why Trudeau immediately got on a plane and took his team for a strategic schmooze fest at Mar-a-Lago. Trump prizes personal relationships above all else, so a connection matters.
Rule Two: Don’t Take It Personally. Even though Trump has a long-standing sour relationship with Trudeau — he’s even called the Canadian PM “two-faced” — in Trumplandia, that doesn’t matter. His relationships with people change like the weather in the Rocky Mountains: If you don’t like what is happening, wait five minutes. It will change.
Trump is quick to anger and quick to forget. Can he get over his past irritations with Trudeau? Well, he got over JD Vance comparing him to … that guy who ran Germany in the war. He nominated former rival Marco Rubio, whom he used to mock as “Little Marco,” for secretary of state. Trump doesn’t hold the very grudges he creates, and the best way to get over that is to find a way to make nice, show loyalty, and suck up. That’s what the Trudeau visit was all about. Feelings first. Facts second.
That doesn’t mean giving anything away. And that’s where the facts come in. On fentanyl and border security, the reality is far different than the rhetoric. Canada is hardly a major threat to the US on either issue.
“The facts are hard to deny,” Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s whip-smart ambassador to the US, pointed out on X. “Last year, 0.6% of illegal crossings and 0.2% of fentanyl seizures by US authorities were at the northern border.”
That’s right. Only .2% of fentanyl seizures happened at the Canadian border. If you want to go deeper, check out the latest stats from the US Customs and Border Protection agency, which shows that the problem of fentanyl is largely at the Mexican border, not the Canadian one.
In fact, the CBP’s top official, Troy Miller, has an extensive interview on the US government website about fentanyl coming over the US border. Guess what? He mentions the southwest border 21 times and Mexico specifically seven times. Canada? Not a word. Canada and the northern border are not mentioned a single time. Why? It is simply not a major issue.
Rule Three: Know What Actually Needs Work. On the other hand, illegal migration is a real issue, both internationally and domestically. There is a key section along the US-Canadian border called the Swanton Sector (which covers parts of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire), and illegal immigration rates there have spiked according to stats from the CBP. But how bad is it? 23,000 arrests were made at the northern border between October 2023 and September 2024. That is up from 10,000 in 2023. Compared to Mexico, where over 47,000 arrests were made in November of this year alone, it’s a trickle (700 were arrested in November in Canada). Still, politically it is an issue Canadians will have to deal with if they want to avoid tariff punishments. Doing nothing is not an option.
Illegal migration is now driving election outcomes in France, Ireland, Germany, and many other places, so this ain’t a surprise. But proportionality matters, and the facts that prove that point can get lost in the storm of threats. It is critical this doesn’t happen.
Rule 4: Follow the Money. There is a high probability that a tariff-driven trade war — or skirmish — is coming very soon, and the facts here will be crucial. After all, high tariffs will hurt the very people Trump represents — namely, American workers. High US tariffs on Canadian goods will raise prices for US consumers and make life for them more miserable. That is a political loss for Trump.
Over 34 US states rely on Canada as their major trading partner, so expect state governors to pressure the White House to ease up on the tariff talk so as not to jeopardize the bilateral trading relationship that sees over US$2.7 billion worth of goods and services crossing the border each day.
To protect that, Canadian leaders will have to think hard about decoupling their trade relationship with Mexico, especially when the new US-Mexico-Canada trade deal gets renegotiated in 2026. The politics of the southern border have always cross-infected the northern one, but if the infection threatens to be economically fatal, there will be a change. The famed three amigos might be reduced to two.
But that is not for right now. Trade deals are not made on social media; they are negotiated face to face, when genuine swaps and deals can happen. Better to build relationships now over dinner, and serve up facts for dessert.
And don’t panic.
It hasn’t even started yet.
Hey, progressives, it’s time to look in the mirror
He has the look of an aging but determined Rafael Nadal trying to make one last comeback. He heaves his body back and looks poised to crush a forehand, as he has a thousand times before. This time, however, it doesn’t go as expected. To his utter shock, the ball hits the net and limply falls to the ground. “Why?” his look implies. “Why are we losing here?” He resets to try for another point, but he nets it again.
Only this isn’t Nadal.
It’s Mitch Landrieu, the former mayor of New Orleans and current co-chair of Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. Landrieu, like so many progressives looking for another Obama moment, cannot understand why so many people are choosing Trump over Biden. It’s like there is an invisible, Don DeLillo-esque cloud hanging overhead with the words, “How are we losing to him?”
Make no mistake, Landrieu is very good at his job and not only deeply understands Biden’s policies — after all, he helped oversee the trillion-plus-dollar infrastructure bill — he’s also a Biden believer. That means he can’t stand Donald Trump. Or, more precisely, he cannot understand why so many people like the former president.
So here he was, playing the anti-Trump hits on stage in Toronto at our US-Canada Summit to a room that just kept shrugging: 34 felony convictions; sexual assault charge; Jan. 6 insurrection; can’t keep staff; Trump’s own attorney general, Bill Barr, called his claims of a stolen election "bogus.” Periodically, Landrieu would look at the crowd, seemingly exasperated by the lack of emotion, and ask, “Why are we normalizing Donald Trump?” But he never asked the more painful question: “Why are our policies so unpopular?” He was like the aging athlete, baffled as to why he is still not winning.
The Dems’ case against Trump has been made countless times, but it simply is not working. At Eurasia Group, we have the odds of Trump winning at 60%. David Axelrod, the former Obama campaign guru and current CNN political commentator, was with us watching Landrieu. As I wrote last week, I asked Axelrod whether Democrats need to spend more time reflecting on why their policies are not connecting with voters and less time trying to convince people that Trump is a big baddy.
“Absolutely,” he responded, going on to describe how Democrats have lost touch with large swaths of the American public, content with lecturing them in condescending tones about how to be better citizens and “more like us” — meaning the folks who run around Washington telling people what to say and what not to say. Democrats are like the kid in the front of the class with his hand up all the time. He may have the right answers, but no one likes him.
“Strong and wrong beats weak and right,” Axelrod said, repeating a Bill Clinton line. And Biden looks weak. Not only that, Axelrod made the point that Democrats focus too heavily on what they have done in the past, not what they will do in the future.
What’s next beats what was, and progressives are losing on that score. Anew poll from the American Survey Center found that “Nearly six in 10 (58 percent) say America’s best days are behind it. Forty percent say America’s best days are yet to come.” This marks a huge change since 2020 when most Americans were optimistic about the future.
As Daniel Cox writes, while most candidates run on optimism, Trump runs on pessimism because it’s connecting with his large constituency — primarily white male voters. “Forty-three percent of Americans who believe people are not to be trusted have a favorable view of Trump compared to 28 percent of those who say people are generally trustworthy,” he writes. It’s not morning again in America, like under Ronald Reagan; this is Trump’s American carnage, reflecting how many people actually think.
Incumbents around the world are facing “Thelma & Louise” moments right now: If they keep doing what they are doing, they will drive off a cliff. So it’s not just progressives. In the UK, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is already airborne and plummeting toward the ground. Narendra Modi got punished in India. Emmanuel Macron is floundering in France, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in even worse political shape.
A new Ipsos poll done for Global News found that 68% of Canadians want Trudeau to step down. Snowstorms poll higher than that in Canada. “This is as bad as we’ve seen it for Trudeau,”Ipsos CEO Darrell Brickertold Global. “It’s close to rock bottom.”
On June 24, Trudeau will face a major test with a byelection in what has long been one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country, St. Paul’s, in downtown Toronto. The Liberals should win easily, but it’s going to be close, and if they somehow lose, Trudeau will feel more heat than from today’s weather bomb to step down. (Conservatives don’t want him to go, preferring to run against a weakened Trudeau in the next election.)
Still, the point remains: Progressive ideas are not connecting. If the policies were actually working — a case both Biden and Trudeau are trying to make — poll results would look rosier. But they don’t.
Trudeau’s signature tax on carbon to deal with climate change is now a shield — not a sword — issue. His attempt to change the narrative by igniting a class war with his new capital gains tax on the rich has done little to reframe the narrative, but the poorly explained policy has alienated lots of centrist voters. In politics, the old saw “Explaining is losing” has always seemed trite to me — policy often takes time to be understood — but if the explanation is bad, then, yeah, you are losing.
Biden is trying to boost his image by offering undocumented spouses a pathway to permanent US residency and his student loan forgiveness. Both may be popular, but neither has really improved his polling. Why?
Trudeau is facing a change wave, and Biden an age wave, but the issues are deeper than that. The fundamental premise that progressives pitch — that their social and economic policies work to improve people’s quality of life — is losing its plausibility, weakened by inflation, a world in crisis, and a long-term, low-growth environment. Trump may not have solid answers — his self-absorbed victimization narrative lacks facts, optimism, and generosity — but his dark view of the world reflects a mood, and people mistake that for truth. Trump reflects how many people feel; Biden is promising things many no longer believe are possible.
Populism always has an angry protest strain to it, but the response to it is usually clear: Show growth. Build things that work: roads, hospitals, opportunities. Don’t go broke. And finally, get stuff done, and be seen to be getting it done. People have to feel better about their lives. And they are not.
Progressives keep looking in the mirror, and they only see opponents they believe are unfit for office. They have to start seeing themselves and figure out why their promises and policies are not connecting more widely. Self-reflection is hard, but tearing down the other guy only works for so long, especially for an incumbent. They need to reinvent themselves as credible leaders promising something better in the future, not just recycled defenders of their past glory days. They must prove their big new promises are doable in short periods of time. Otherwise, they risk looking like those aging athletes who criticize the skills of the new generation of competitors but keep losing. In politics, the past ain't prologue. It just doesn’t work that way. Just ask Rafa Nadal.