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Israeli machinery maneuvers during an Israeli operation in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, on Feb. 23, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire hits a snag
Uneasy week: Tensions have been high since Hamas mistakenly sent the remains of an anonymous Gazan woman instead of those of Shiri Bibas when it returned the bodies of three Israeli hostages last week.
The Israeli government says it won’t return the Palestinian prisoners until Hamas commits to halting the hostage “ceremonies.” Finalizing the first phase of the deal, which is set to expire next weekend, is contingent upon the release of these detainees. Hamas, in turn, has called the delay a “blatant violation of [the ceasefire’s] terms.”
The second phase of the deal would involve Hamas releasing all remaining Israeli hostages in return for Israel withdrawing its troops from Gaza, and the details of the third and final phase still need to be ironed out.
Complicating matters further, the Israel Defense Forces moved tanks into the West Bank on Sunday and told tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians that they could not return to their homes in the occupied area. The moves are reportedly part of the largest Israeli military operation into the Palestinian Authority-controlled territory for more than two decades.A Palestinian pushes belongings past the rubble of buildings and houses destroyed during the Israeli offensive, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip, January 22, 2025.
UNRWA ban looms in Gaza, tensions flare in West Bank
Since the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect on Sunday, over 2,500 aid trucks have entered Gaza to provide much-needed humanitarian relief. However, as of Jan. 26, some of that aid couldstop flowing as an Israeli ban on the operations of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, or UNRWA, takes effect.
Why did Israel impose a ban? Israel accuses UNRWA of links to Hamas, including staff involvement in the October 2023 attack that claimed over 1,000 Israeli lives and saw the taking of more than 200 hostages. Three months ago, Israel passed two laws designating UNRWA as a terrorist organization, banning it from operations in Gaza and the West Bank. The laws had a 90-day grace period,granted to allow other organizations to take UNRWA’s place, according to the politicians who drafted the bill, but that does not appear to have happened.
While Israel argues that only 13% of Gaza’s aid comes from UNRWA, international organizations insist the agency provides a crucial conduit for distributing aid and providing shelter. Israeli security agencies are working with the UN and the US to identify temporary solutions, but UN Secretary-General António Guterreshas refused direct talks with Israel, complicating negotiations. UNRWA employees arevowing to stay, even though defying the ban would put their safety at risk.
Meanwhile, violence has erupted in the West Bank, where Israel has reportedlydestroyed a road leading to a refugee camp in Jenin. For the past few days, Israel has conducted what it calls “counterterrorism” operations in the area, but some observers see a larger plan for annexation taking shape, backed by key members of the Trump administration. Donald Trump’s nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, affirmed her support for Israel’s biblical claim to the West Bank during a Senate confirmation hearing, a position also endorsed by Mike Huckabee, Trump’s pick for US ambassador to Israel.
According to Eurasia Group regional analyst Greg Brew, “Netanyahu likely gave assurances to his far-right supporters, including [far-right Finance Minister Bezalel] Smotrich, that further expansions of settlements and greater permissiveness of settler violence would be allowed so long as Smotrich stayed in the government and went along with the ceasefire in Gaza. Broadly speaking, I’d say the Netanyahu government will advance plans to expand settlements in the West Bank and will look for support from the Trump Administration in doing so.”
But talk of annexation could jeopardizeTrump’s goal of normalizing Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia, which favors a two-state solution. We’ll be watching how Trump navigates the issue with both his new nominees and Netanyahu.
Plane descends through air strike smoke to land at airport in Beirut, Lebanon in this screengrab obtained on October 1, 2024.
Israel broadens the battlefield
The world still awaits Israel’s retaliation against Iran for Tehran’s brazen missile attack last Tuesday. But in the meantime, Israeli forcesconducted further airstrikes in Syria, hitting a weapons depot south of Homs and a rocket depot in the eastern countryside on Sunday. The strikes – which apparently aimed to stem the flow of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon –caused “material losses,” according to Syrian state media. They came two days after Israel launched rocket attacks near a Russian airbase in Syria, where Russian forces were reportedly “confronting” the missiles for over 40 minutes, raising concerns that Russia — an Iranian ally – could become embroiled in the escalating regional war.
Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Israel resumed bombardment of targets in Beirut while Hezbollah rockets struck the Israeli port city of Haifa. This followed a weekend of intense Israeli bombardment of Hezbollah targets in suburban Beirut, which took the lives of 23 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
Key leaders targeted. The Israeli foreign ministry claims that its air force killed Hezbollah commander Hader Ali Taweel on Sunday. Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaaniis also missing after Israeli strikes on Beirut last week, though it is unclear whether he is dead or wounded. The Quds Force oversees dealings with militias allied with Tehran across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, and confusion about Qaani’s fate is reportedly causing panic among the troops. The strike was in fact targeting senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safieddine, who is also unaccounted for, and who was seen as a possible successor to Hezbollah’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
But is Hezbollah the real target? Israel’s increased military operations have led observers to speculate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expanding operations to target Iran – and drag the US into the conflict. Bibi is also suspected of seeking to torpedo a cease-fire in Gaza to harm the Democrats’ chances in the upcoming US election while boosting his own favorability at home. His poll numbers have climbed since the war with Hezbollah heated up but not far enough to allow him to form a majority government if an election were held today.
When asked on Friday whether Netanyahu was attempting to influence the US election, a frustrated US President Joe Biden said “I don’t know” before adding, “No administration has helped Israel more than I have … And I think [Netanyahu] should remember that.”Al Jazeera's bureau chief in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, Walid al-Omari, reads from military order papers that were handed to him by Israeli soldiers at the Al Jazeera office in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 22, 2024 in this screen grab from video.
Hard Numbers: Israel raids West Bank newsroom, far right comes up just short in Germany, coal mine explodes in Iran, gold breaks records, Trump looks to get cash for coins
45: Israeli soldiers on Sunday raided the office of Al Jazeera in Ramallah, the capital of the occupied West Bank, ordering it to close for at least 45 days. Israeli authorities said the facility was “being used to incite terror” without immediately supplying evidence.
31-32: Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party narrowly edged out the far-right Alternative for Germany in local elections in Brandenburg, the former east German state that surrounds Berlin. Exit polls show the SPD earning 31-32% of the vote to the AfD’s 29%-30%. The AfD has performed well in the former East, ringing up a historical victory in Thuringia earlier this month.
51: At least 51 people died in a gas explosion at a coal mine in Iran’s South Khorasan province on Saturday, and another 20 are injured. The proximate cause seems to have been a buildup of methane, which must be properly vented from coal mines. Rescue operations were underway Sunday to evacuate workers.
2600: The price of gold broke $2,600 per ounce on Friday for the first time, as investors continued to buy the metal as a hedge against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as concerns that Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar. Other precious metals, including silver, platinum and palladium have all seen price declines in the last month. Analysts say gold’s run – up 27% on the year – may soon come to an end.
100: In other overpriced metal news, the Trump campaign has begun hawking $100 commemorative silver coins with the former president’s face on them. It’s the former president’s latest effort to grab more cash for the campaign, following Trump sneakers, Trump Bibles, Trump NFTs, Trump playing cards, and much more. In case you’re weighing, by the way, each of the $100 coins only contains only about $30 worth of silver.Demonstrators take part in a march in support of Palestinians in Gaza and to salute the slain Jordanian who shot and killed three Israeli civilians, according to the Israeli authorities, at the Allenby Bridge border crossing in the occupied West Bank, in Amman, Jordan September 8, 2024.
Israel’s Jordan and Lebanon borders see new security threats
A Jordanian gunman on Sundaykilled three Israeli guards at the Allenby Bridge, the border crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. The shooter, 39-year-old Maher Ziab Hussein al-Jazi, was shot dead by security forces. The attack was the first of its kind since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7.
Jordan’s government is investigating the incident, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid it was a “hard day” and sent condolences to the victims’ families. Hamashas not claimed responsibility for the attack, but called it a “natural response” to the war in Gaza.
In the Jordanian capital of Amman,hundreds of people took to the streets to celebrate the attack. Israeli authorities closed the crossing after the incident but plan to reopen it on Monday. A permanent closure would cause economic hardship on both sides of the border, as dozens of trailers cross daily from Jordan supplying goods to both the occupied West Bank and Israeli markets.
Fears of escalation have largely focused on Lebanon until now. Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Sunday thatUS officials have proposed a land swap between Lebanon and Israel to end border conflicts and resolve ongoing disputes. The plan would recognize “Point B1,” the westernmost border point of the “Blue Line,” as part of Lebanon, patrolled by UN forces. It would also preserve the territorial integrity of Kibbutz Misgav Am in Israel in exchange for a land swap equal to twice its size of the kibbutz.
We’re watching to see if there is any official confirmation of the proposal – and whether it has a chance of succeeding.
People react inside a damaged residence following an Israeli raid, in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, on Sept. 6, 2024.
American woman killed at protest in West Bank
The IDF said it was “looking into reports that a foreign national was killed as a result of shots fired in the area,” adding that the "details of the incident and the circumstances in which she was hit are under review."
The fatal incident comes at a rocky moment in US-Israel relations, with the Biden administration at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his approach to the war in Gaza and support for settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, among other issues.
The tragic news came hours after Israeli forces withdrew from Jenin and its refugee camp, a militant stronghold, following a nine-day operation there.
We’ll be watching to see how Eygi’s killing impacts the already tense dynamic between the White House and the Jewish state.
The White House in a statement said it was “deeply disturbed by the tragic death of an American citizen,” adding that it’s reached out to the Israeli government “to ask for more information and request an investigation into the incident.”Israeli security forces members take part in a raid, in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, August 28, 2024.
Is the war in Gaza expanding to the West Bank?
Israel on Wednesday launched a major operation in the occupied West Bank, which has seen increasing unrest and violence amid the war in Gaza. Two days of raids have killed 16 Palestinians – Israel said nearly all of them were Hamas militants – and involved gun battles, arrests, and airstrikes.
The Israeli military, which sent forces into Jenin as well as two refugee camps in the West Bank, said the operation was targeting terrorists. “This is a war in every respect, and we must win it,” Israel Katz, the Jewish state’s top diplomat, posted. Katz also pushed for the “temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents.” Meanwhile, Hamas has called on Palestinians in the West Bank to “rise up.”
Israel has accused Iran of smuggling weapons into the West Bank and fomenting conflict there. But Wednesday’s operation also comes just days after Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallantissued warnings about extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank and criticized the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — accusing him of emboldening militant settlers and endangering Israel.
Over 650 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since Oct. 7, according to Palestinian Health Ministry figures, amid a rise in Israeli operations and violent attacks by settlers. At least 30 Israelis have also died in attacks in Jerusalem and the West Bank during the same period, according to Israel.
How does this relate to Gaza? The operation in the West Bank is not necessarily an expansion of the war in Gaza, but the two are intrinsically linked.“There are linkages between Gaza and the West Bank and what happens in those two areas and other fronts in the region (and vice versa),” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst for Eurasia Group.
“There's a risk of further escalation in the West Bank over the coming period,” says Meranto, which is primarily tied to the deteriorating security situation and increasing violence atop a “worsening economic situation for Palestinian communities” in the occupied Palestinian territory.
View of a destroyed car on the street caused by an Israeli airstrike on the city of Jenin in the northern occupied West Bank.
Israel strikes targets in the West Bank
On Tuesday,two Israeli airstrikes in the West Bank killed at least 10 Palestinians, according to local Palestinian health officials. Israeli officials say the West Bank strikes targeted armed groups in the north of the territory. It’s another reminder that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to fight on multiple fronts – against Hamas in Gaza, against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and against militants in the West Bank.
All this as Israel and the region prepare for an expected strike from Iran in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran on July 31. There are also fears that Israel’s confrontation with Hezbollah has intensified in recent days and could tip into a full-blown war. Hezbollah launched drone attacks into northern Israel on Tuesday, and later that day, Hamas named Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar as its new leader in a defiant move.
Beyond the obvious national security objectives for Israel, Netanyahu also has a strong political motive to pick deadly fights with as many of Israel’s enemies as possible. When Hamas launched the terrorist attacks that killed 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, the already polarizing Netanyahu became responsible for the worst intelligence and security failures in Israel’s history. The sooner Israel’s war(s) end, the sooner Netanyahu will be out of power – unless he can claim credit for inflicting crippling blows on Hamas, Palestinian militants in the West Bank, and Hezbollah.