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Plane descends through air strike smoke to land at airport in Beirut, Lebanon in this screengrab obtained on October 1, 2024.
Israel broadens the battlefield
The world still awaits Israel’s retaliation against Iran for Tehran’s brazen missile attack last Tuesday. But in the meantime, Israeli forcesconducted further airstrikes in Syria, hitting a weapons depot south of Homs and a rocket depot in the eastern countryside on Sunday. The strikes – which apparently aimed to stem the flow of weapons from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon –caused “material losses,” according to Syrian state media. They came two days after Israel launched rocket attacks near a Russian airbase in Syria, where Russian forces were reportedly “confronting” the missiles for over 40 minutes, raising concerns that Russia — an Iranian ally – could become embroiled in the escalating regional war.
Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Israel resumed bombardment of targets in Beirut while Hezbollah rockets struck the Israeli port city of Haifa. This followed a weekend of intense Israeli bombardment of Hezbollah targets in suburban Beirut, which took the lives of 23 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry.
Key leaders targeted. The Israeli foreign ministry claims that its air force killed Hezbollah commander Hader Ali Taweel on Sunday. Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Qaaniis also missing after Israeli strikes on Beirut last week, though it is unclear whether he is dead or wounded. The Quds Force oversees dealings with militias allied with Tehran across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, and confusion about Qaani’s fate is reportedly causing panic among the troops. The strike was in fact targeting senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safieddine, who is also unaccounted for, and who was seen as a possible successor to Hezbollah’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
But is Hezbollah the real target? Israel’s increased military operations have led observers to speculate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expanding operations to target Iran – and drag the US into the conflict. Bibi is also suspected of seeking to torpedo a cease-fire in Gaza to harm the Democrats’ chances in the upcoming US election while boosting his own favorability at home. His poll numbers have climbed since the war with Hezbollah heated up but not far enough to allow him to form a majority government if an election were held today.
When asked on Friday whether Netanyahu was attempting to influence the US election, a frustrated US President Joe Biden said “I don’t know” before adding, “No administration has helped Israel more than I have … And I think [Netanyahu] should remember that.”Al Jazeera's bureau chief in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, Walid al-Omari, reads from military order papers that were handed to him by Israeli soldiers at the Al Jazeera office in Ramallah, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, September 22, 2024 in this screen grab from video.
Hard Numbers: Israel raids West Bank newsroom, far right comes up just short in Germany, coal mine explodes in Iran, gold breaks records, Trump looks to get cash for coins
45: Israeli soldiers on Sunday raided the office of Al Jazeera in Ramallah, the capital of the occupied West Bank, ordering it to close for at least 45 days. Israeli authorities said the facility was “being used to incite terror” without immediately supplying evidence.
31-32: Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party narrowly edged out the far-right Alternative for Germany in local elections in Brandenburg, the former east German state that surrounds Berlin. Exit polls show the SPD earning 31-32% of the vote to the AfD’s 29%-30%. The AfD has performed well in the former East, ringing up a historical victory in Thuringia earlier this month.
51: At least 51 people died in a gas explosion at a coal mine in Iran’s South Khorasan province on Saturday, and another 20 are injured. The proximate cause seems to have been a buildup of methane, which must be properly vented from coal mines. Rescue operations were underway Sunday to evacuate workers.
2600: The price of gold broke $2,600 per ounce on Friday for the first time, as investors continued to buy the metal as a hedge against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as well as concerns that Fed rate cuts could weaken the dollar. Other precious metals, including silver, platinum and palladium have all seen price declines in the last month. Analysts say gold’s run – up 27% on the year – may soon come to an end.
100: In other overpriced metal news, the Trump campaign has begun hawking $100 commemorative silver coins with the former president’s face on them. It’s the former president’s latest effort to grab more cash for the campaign, following Trump sneakers, Trump Bibles, Trump NFTs, Trump playing cards, and much more. In case you’re weighing, by the way, each of the $100 coins only contains only about $30 worth of silver.Demonstrators take part in a march in support of Palestinians in Gaza and to salute the slain Jordanian who shot and killed three Israeli civilians, according to the Israeli authorities, at the Allenby Bridge border crossing in the occupied West Bank, in Amman, Jordan September 8, 2024.
Israel’s Jordan and Lebanon borders see new security threats
A Jordanian gunman on Sundaykilled three Israeli guards at the Allenby Bridge, the border crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. The shooter, 39-year-old Maher Ziab Hussein al-Jazi, was shot dead by security forces. The attack was the first of its kind since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7.
Jordan’s government is investigating the incident, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid it was a “hard day” and sent condolences to the victims’ families. Hamashas not claimed responsibility for the attack, but called it a “natural response” to the war in Gaza.
In the Jordanian capital of Amman,hundreds of people took to the streets to celebrate the attack. Israeli authorities closed the crossing after the incident but plan to reopen it on Monday. A permanent closure would cause economic hardship on both sides of the border, as dozens of trailers cross daily from Jordan supplying goods to both the occupied West Bank and Israeli markets.
Fears of escalation have largely focused on Lebanon until now. Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida reported on Sunday thatUS officials have proposed a land swap between Lebanon and Israel to end border conflicts and resolve ongoing disputes. The plan would recognize “Point B1,” the westernmost border point of the “Blue Line,” as part of Lebanon, patrolled by UN forces. It would also preserve the territorial integrity of Kibbutz Misgav Am in Israel in exchange for a land swap equal to twice its size of the kibbutz.
We’re watching to see if there is any official confirmation of the proposal – and whether it has a chance of succeeding.
People react inside a damaged residence following an Israeli raid, in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, on Sept. 6, 2024.
American woman killed at protest in West Bank
The IDF said it was “looking into reports that a foreign national was killed as a result of shots fired in the area,” adding that the "details of the incident and the circumstances in which she was hit are under review."
The fatal incident comes at a rocky moment in US-Israel relations, with the Biden administration at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his approach to the war in Gaza and support for settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, among other issues.
The tragic news came hours after Israeli forces withdrew from Jenin and its refugee camp, a militant stronghold, following a nine-day operation there.
We’ll be watching to see how Eygi’s killing impacts the already tense dynamic between the White House and the Jewish state.
The White House in a statement said it was “deeply disturbed by the tragic death of an American citizen,” adding that it’s reached out to the Israeli government “to ask for more information and request an investigation into the incident.”Israeli security forces members take part in a raid, in Jenin, in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, August 28, 2024.
Is the war in Gaza expanding to the West Bank?
Israel on Wednesday launched a major operation in the occupied West Bank, which has seen increasing unrest and violence amid the war in Gaza. Two days of raids have killed 16 Palestinians – Israel said nearly all of them were Hamas militants – and involved gun battles, arrests, and airstrikes.
The Israeli military, which sent forces into Jenin as well as two refugee camps in the West Bank, said the operation was targeting terrorists. “This is a war in every respect, and we must win it,” Israel Katz, the Jewish state’s top diplomat, posted. Katz also pushed for the “temporary evacuation of Palestinian residents.” Meanwhile, Hamas has called on Palestinians in the West Bank to “rise up.”
Israel has accused Iran of smuggling weapons into the West Bank and fomenting conflict there. But Wednesday’s operation also comes just days after Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallantissued warnings about extremist Israeli settlers in the West Bank and criticized the far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir — accusing him of emboldening militant settlers and endangering Israel.
Over 650 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since Oct. 7, according to Palestinian Health Ministry figures, amid a rise in Israeli operations and violent attacks by settlers. At least 30 Israelis have also died in attacks in Jerusalem and the West Bank during the same period, according to Israel.
How does this relate to Gaza? The operation in the West Bank is not necessarily an expansion of the war in Gaza, but the two are intrinsically linked.“There are linkages between Gaza and the West Bank and what happens in those two areas and other fronts in the region (and vice versa),” says Sofia Meranto, a Middle East analyst for Eurasia Group.
“There's a risk of further escalation in the West Bank over the coming period,” says Meranto, which is primarily tied to the deteriorating security situation and increasing violence atop a “worsening economic situation for Palestinian communities” in the occupied Palestinian territory.
View of a destroyed car on the street caused by an Israeli airstrike on the city of Jenin in the northern occupied West Bank.
Israel strikes targets in the West Bank
On Tuesday,two Israeli airstrikes in the West Bank killed at least 10 Palestinians, according to local Palestinian health officials. Israeli officials say the West Bank strikes targeted armed groups in the north of the territory. It’s another reminder that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to fight on multiple fronts – against Hamas in Gaza, against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and against militants in the West Bank.
All this as Israel and the region prepare for an expected strike from Iran in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran on July 31. There are also fears that Israel’s confrontation with Hezbollah has intensified in recent days and could tip into a full-blown war. Hezbollah launched drone attacks into northern Israel on Tuesday, and later that day, Hamas named Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar as its new leader in a defiant move.
Beyond the obvious national security objectives for Israel, Netanyahu also has a strong political motive to pick deadly fights with as many of Israel’s enemies as possible. When Hamas launched the terrorist attacks that killed 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, the already polarizing Netanyahu became responsible for the worst intelligence and security failures in Israel’s history. The sooner Israel’s war(s) end, the sooner Netanyahu will be out of power – unless he can claim credit for inflicting crippling blows on Hamas, Palestinian militants in the West Bank, and Hezbollah.
Israel attacks Iran
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take on the latest in the Middle East crisis. And things actually looking a little bit more stable today than they have over the past couple of weeks. And that is some very welcome news.
The headlines, of course, that the Iranians have been hit by Israel, though no one is saying that Israel has admitted to doing it, in the town of Isfahan. Clearly, military targets and the Iranians trying to knock down those missiles coming over. But this was a significantly more restrained attack than what the Israelis did to kick off this crisis, which was attack an Iranian government building in Damascus and target and assassinate a senior Iranian leader. That led to the Iranian response that we saw over the weekend, which was a significant and serious one, with a few hundred missiles and drones. And now we are in the escalatory portion of the cycle.
The United States said very clearly to Israel, “We're going to help defend you no matter what. We don't want any offensive strikes against Iran. Take the win.” The fact that they said that meant that it was very, very likely that they were going to do something, but that something was going to be restrained, where if the Americans said, “Hey, just take it easy, don't do anything big,” then they’d end up doing something bigger, right? And you give them an inch, they take two inches. This is the way these things work. And it was coordinated with the United States. The US was not involved directly in the military strikes, but they knew it was coming. They had that cooperation, communication from Israel, which was important because the US had to be in position in case the Iranians decided that they were going to strike real time in response to Israel. The Americans were going to help the Israelis defend themselves yet again.
Now, the big question here is not, “Do the Iranians respond in a big way?” They don't. They've already signaled that that's not the intention. You've seen them downplaying the nature of these strikes on Iranian state media. So, this crisis, this proximate crisis between Israel and Iran is now in the rearview mirror. But going forward, what's the likelihood that we can stabilize this war, which is now well beyond just a matter of Israel versus Hamas?
One thing that makes me a little bit more positive is the fact that Bibi Netanyahu is himself in a little more secure position domestically. What do you mean, makes you more positive? Does that mean he's going to last longer? Yes. But it also means he doesn't necessarily have to go ahead with massive strikes against Hamas in Rafah, killing lots of civilians. Or eventually against Hezbollah, pushing them back so that almost 100,000 Israeli citizens can get back to the north. If he wanted to take a win and show that he now has, you know, a historical legacy of leading Israel in defending against an unprecedented strike from Iran, with strong support from the Americans, from the Brits, from the Jordanians, from the Saudis, this is the opportunity that could create Saudi normalization with Israel. This is the opportunity that could create a peace deal that the Palestinians would have some form of governance over the West Bank and Gaza together.
That's the opportunity that comes from this, precisely because Israel domestically now has a leader that doesn't have to look over his shoulder every moment. But the strong effort by Netanyahu, at least as of today, is to still go ahead with these Rafah strikes. You've got the battalions on the ground. You want to use them, you want to take out, these Hamas leaders, irrespective of the civilian cost. And that continues to be very popular among the entire population of Israel as well.
So, when I think about the next couple of weeks, I think that you're not going to get a breakthrough deal on hostages with Hamas, and that means that the fighting only stops if there's a broader agreement. And that broader agreement requires that the Israeli war cabinet is willing to stand down and not continue their war on the ground in Gaza. And in return, has a broader agreement with the Americans, with the Gulf states, and ultimately with a path forward for the Palestinians. Most people around the world would welcome, would love to see that. Getting the Israelis from here to there, especially when you are surrounded by enemies that consider you, to be, illegitimate as a country and refuse to recognize your right to exist, that makes it a lot harder. So that's where we are. But some breathing space for now. The mood in the United States, certainly better than it was at any point over the last week and a half, and that's a good thing.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Palestinian gunmen attend the funeral of the Palestinians who were killed in an Israeli army raid in the West Bank city of Jenin, Jan. 7, 2024.
Iran throws more sparks into a tinderbox
Even as the war in Gaza rages, tensions in the occupied West Bank continue to rise, and there is fresh evidence that Iran – a longstanding backer of armed Palestinian groups – has been flooding the territory with weapons over the past couple of years.
A New York Times investigation found that Tehran has been smuggling thousands of handguns and rifles into the West Bank. The weapons are routed either through the long, porous West Bank-Jordan border or via smuggling networks running through Lebanon and Israel itself. The Iranian commander assassinated last week by an Israeli airstrike in Damascus is thought to have been involved.
Since the Hamas rampage of Oct. 7, Israel has carried out fresh crackdowns on suspected militants in the West Bank, while the government has directly armed Israeli settlers who live in the territory illegally. Last year alone, more than 500 Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli settlers or troops, the highest mark on record.
The Palestinian Authority, which recognizes Israel and exerts limited self-government over the West Bank, is weak and deeply unpopular, raising concerns that the situation there could explode into a full-on violent intifada again, quickly transforming the Gaza war into a wider, two-front affair.