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What We’re Watching: Russia & Ukraine talk grain, US talks fish
Russia and Ukraine get granular, finally
The two countries at war on Wednesday agreed in principle to a UN-backed plan to resume exports of grain from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat and cooking oils, but the war has crippled those shipments, inflaming food prices globally and undercutting food security in dozens of emerging market countries. Under the UN plan, Ukraine would clear mines from its ports, Russia would allow safe passage for grain boats, and Turkey would provide safe shipping corridors. But Kyiv is wary about Moscow using the de-mined sea lanes to launch a fresh naval offensive, and Moscow insists on the right to inspect any boats for weapons. The two sides and Turkey are set to ink an official deal next week. For complete coverage of the growing global food crisis, be sure to see our Hunger Pains project.
US fishes for friends in the Pacific
We’ve written about France and the UK fighting over fish(ing rights) in the English Channel. But what about using fish to reel in friends? That seems to be what US Vice President Kamala Harris tried to do this week with Pacific island leaders at a regional forum that, till now, had raised eyebrows mostly for Kiribati dropping out, allegedly at the behest of China. Via video link, Harris announced $60 million worth of American aid to help 14 Pacific countries catch more tuna. It may not sound like a lot of dough, but illegal fishing is a huge problem in this part of the world, where China's dark fleet has been accused of depleting fish stocks. The announcement comes weeks after China first signed a controversial security pact with the Solomon Islands that Western allies fear will allow Beijing to establish a military base there. Most Pacific countries notably turned down China's offer to make a similar region-wide deal. The Americans, along with the Aussies and Kiwis, have long neglected the remote and sparsely populated Pacific, but fears of China gaining a foothold have lured them back into action.A Russian-flagged bulk carrier transits the Bosphorus near Istanbul.
What We're Watching: Black Sea wheat pirates, Kazakh referendum, Korean missile tit-for-tat
Donbas battle rages as stolen wheat hits high seas
Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in a fierce battle for control of the strategic eastern city of Sievierodonetsk. Taking it would help Russian forces occupy a broader swath of the Donbas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, visiting frontline troops in nearby Zaporizhzhia, said his men had “a chance” to hold the city despite being outnumbered. The question remains — at what point should Ukraine consider negotiating? Meanwhile, US officials have warned as many as 14 countries that Russian grain ships may arrive with cargos pilfered illegally from Ukraine. Still, amid a growing global food crisis that’s been made worse by the war, are governments really prepared to turn away huge shipments of wheat?
Is this a new Kazakhstan, or just a new old one?
Voters in the sprawling, oil-rich former Soviet republic approved constitutional changes that would decentralize the political system and strip former strongman Nursultan Nazarbayev of his emeritus privileges as “leader of the nation.” The move is seen as a bid by current President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to move out of the shadow of his predecessor, who ruled the Central Asian nation from the Soviet collapse until stepping down in 2019. This isn’t the first swipe Tokayev has taken at Nazarbayev. Back in January, amid mass protests that began over fuel prices, Tokayev removed him from a key security post, while also calling in troops from a Russia-led regional security alliance to restore order. Those forces left soon after, and in the wake of that unrest, Tokayev proposed a range of constitutional reforms meant to tackle nepotism and move away from what he has called a “super-presidential” system. Tokayev has also sought to distance himself from Russia’s position on Ukraine, in a move experts say is also about distinguishing himself from Nazarbayev. After the YES vote, it remains to be seen whether the changes are really about moving Kazakhstan away from strongman rule, or merely cutting a path for one strongman to replace another.
US & South Korea show off their toys to Kim Jong Un
We're used to North Korea’s Kim Jong Un firing off a missile or two when he wants attention from Washington or Seoul (even on Puppet Regime!), as he did, yet again, on Sunday. The Americans and the South Koreans rarely respond with their own shows of force, but that is precisely what they did on Monday by launching seven projectiles from South Korea and one from the US — the second such retaliatory launch in two weeks. What's changed? First, South Korea has a new leader, President Yoon Suk-yeol, who won't play nice with the northern neighbor like his dovish predecessor, Moon Jae-in. Second, the US was not amused that North Korea decided to test a suspected ICBM just hours after President Joe Biden departed South Korea during his recent Asian tour. More broadly, now that he has the more pro-US Yoon in Seoul, Biden likely feels more emboldened to push back every time Kim goes ballistic. But what if Pyongyang's next step is to test a nuke for the first time since 2017, perhaps to distract attention from North Korea’s worsening COVID crisis? Don't expect tensions between the two Koreas to subside anytime soon.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Subscribe for your free daily Signal today.
Flags wave outside NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.
What We're Watching: Nordics to join NATO, India says no wheat for you, Lebanon's election
Finland & Sweden heart NATO
In a historic decision for two long-neutral countries opposed to military alliances, Finland and Sweden confirmed Sunday that they'll apply to join NATO in response to Russia's war in Ukraine. The Finns came out first and immediately informed Vladimir Putin, while the Swedes only gave the go-ahead after the ruling Social Democrats finally agreed (although they are against hosting NATO bases or nuclear weapons). The two Nordic countries are expected to formally submit their applications in the coming days, but their bids may have hit a last-minute snag: NATO member Turkey resents the Finns and Swedes for their historic support for the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which Ankara considers a terrorist organization. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg hopes the two sides will be able to iron out their differences quickly, but Turkish demands could delay the process. Meanwhile, Putin warned Finland — which shares an 800-mile border with Russia — that joining the alliance will be a "historic mistake" and cut off the Finns from Russian-generated electricity. Still, it seems that NATO's Nordic expansion is in the works — and there’s nothing Putin can do about it.
India’s (un)timely wheat ban
As if global food prices needed another reason to skyrocket, India, the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, announced late Friday that it’ll temporarily suspend exports of the grain. The decision drew criticism from the G7, which warned that the export ban will create more turmoil in global agricultural supply chains already upended by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. India, for its part, insists that its recent heat wave — which has crippled wheat production and pushed local prices up — demands prioritizing its domestic market. The ban is a major flip-flop by India, which had recently pledged to increase exports precisely to make up for the shortfall in global production from the war between the world’s no. 1 and no. 5 producers. But combating rising inflation — at an eight-year high in April — is a more urgent priority for PM Narendra Modi, whose ascent to power in 2014 was in part aided by public rage against inflation. Who stands to lose the most from the export ban? India’s neighbors and the world’s poorest consumers in Asia and Africa.
Hezbollah in trouble after Lebanese vote
As results trickle in from Sunday's parliamentary election in Lebanon, so far it’s not looking good for Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite party that currently holds a majority in parliament. The preliminary count shows several Hezbollah allies losing their seats to independents and newcomers who campaigned on an agenda of reform and holding politicians to account for the mismanagement that has plunged the country into its worst economic and political crisis since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. The Lebanese Forces, an anti-Hezbollah former militia, might overtake the Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement as the largest Christian bloc in parliament, splitting the chamber between Hezbollah's allies and its enemies, with independents caught in the middle. What happens next? Once all the votes are counted and a majority is formed, parliament will nominate a prime minister to appoint a government, a process that can take months but is crucial in order to unlock financial support from donors and the IMF that poor Lebanese — three-quarters of the population — urgently need.
How Russia's war is starving the world: food expert Ertharin Cousin
And it's not just that the prices of things like corn or wheat have doubled. Transport costs are up because gas is more expensive, while supplies of fertilizer are down for the same reason.
Who's most at risk? Developing countries that rely on those imports. The disruptions could double the number of people that went hungry due to the pandemic. Everyone will be affected because we're talking about global commodities, and the worst might be yet to come since agriculture is a seasonal business.
”This is a long, much longer-term potential food challenge,” Cousin says.
The conflict, she says, has put the international community in a tough spot. Sanctions will cause hunger, but otherwise, Russia will continue to profit from selling food to the world. And there's a growing divide between the West and non-aligned developing countries that can't afford to not import Russian food.
Conflict-affected nations are the most vulnerable, but many low-income nations will also struggle because they can't afford subsidies to feed their people.
"As a result," Cousin explains, "you'd have more people slipping into a position where food is maybe available, but inaccessible because they cannot afford it."
Cousin tells Bremmer the West should "move beyond platitudes" and offer developing countries financial support to deal with the food crisis because now with China, "we need to realize we're not the only game in town."
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Russia's war in Ukraine is starving the world
Ukraine is an agricultural powerhouse. But so is Russia. Between the two they account for almost a third of the world's wheat exports.
The Russian invasion has disrupted planting and harvesting in Ukraine. Sanctions against Moscow, for their part, have restricted shipping — further limiting food supplies.
Who's most at risk? Countries in the Middle East and North Africa that depend on these grain imports, like Egypt.
All this comes as the world was already experiencing record-high food prices due to COVID-related supply chain problems and climate change.
The UN estimates that the disruption to food systems causes by the war will make up to 47 million people go hungry.
Watch the GZERO World episode: A perfect storm of food insecurity: a problem for all of us
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A perfect storm of food insecurity: a problem for all of us
Russia and Ukraine are agricultural powerhouses. But the war and sanctions have crippled their ability to feed the world.
Who's most at risk? Developing countries that rely on those imports. What will the impact be? The disruptions could double the number of people currently suffering from acute food insecurity (some 275 million) due to the pandemic.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ertharin Cousin, who knows a thing or two about food security as the former executive director of the UN World Food Programme
Cousin says the war has created a perfect storm that'll led to a global food price and supply crisis. Everyone will be affected because we're talking about global commodities, and the worst might be yet to come since agriculture is a seasonal business.The conflict, she says, has put the international community in a tough spot. Sanctions will cause hunger, but otherwise, Russia will continue to profit from selling food to the world.
And there's a growing divide between the West and non-aligned developing countries that can't afford to not import Russian food. Conflict-affected nations are the most vulnerable, but many low-income nations will also struggle because they can't afford subsidies to feed their people.
As a bonus, battle over borscht! What’s the back story, and why is the soup such an important part of Ukraine’s national identity? We spoke with a chef, a historian, and a Ukrainian emigré couple to learn more.
Podcast: The Ukraine war is crippling the world's food supply, says food security expert Ertharin Cousin
Listen: The Ukraine war and sanctions against Russia have created a perfect storm that will lead to a global food supply crisis, Ertharin Cousin, former head of the UN World Food Programme, tells Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast. Russia and Ukraine account for almost a third of the world's wheat exports. All nations could be affected since these are global commodities, but developing countries that rely on those imports are most at risk. The disruptions could double the amount of people that went hungry during the pandemic, and since agriculture is a seasonal business, the worst may be yet to come.
Many low-income nations will also struggle because they can't afford subsidies to feed their people. The conflict has put the international community in a tough spot between causing hunger and punishing Russia, says Cousin, who now serves as CEO of a non-profit organization, Food Systems for the Future. She recommends the West offer developing countries financial support to deal with the food crisis since "we need to realize we're not the only game in town"; China may also see this an opportunity to build alliances by offering help.
Listen to Ian Bremmer's interview with Ertharin Cousin, former head of the UN World Food Programme.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.- The Graphic Truth: Cereal killer — wheat prices amid Ukraine crisis ... ›
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War of the Sunflower Superpowers
Vladimir Putin’s decision to wage war has already brought destruction to the places and people of Ukraine, but it could also put millions of people at risk far from cities like Kyiv, Kharkov, and Mariupol. That’s because the war is making key food staples around the world more scarce and pricier, raising the prospect of food shortages and social unrest.
“Countries as far afield as Nigeria, Yemen, and Bangladesh are already feeling the effects of reduced grain exports,” says Peter Ceretti, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group. “But the knock-on effects could be much worse: soaring fertilizer prices, export bans, and a failed planting season in Ukraine could all mean that millions around the world go hungry.”
How bad is it? Prices for basic foodstuffs such as wheat, sunflower oil, and corn have hit record highs in recent days, as has the UN’s food price index, which measures the cost of several key staples together. With scant near-term prospects for peace, a global food crunch is coming.
The Ukraine war has made a bad situation worse. Even before the Russian invasion, the world was facing higher prices for energy, food, and shipping as post-pandemic demand roared back faster than supplies. The war has compounded all of that.
This is, in fact, a war between two superpowers … of agriculture. The world’s number one exporter of wheat has invaded the world’s number five exporter of the grain – together Russia and Ukraine provide about 30% of wheat in global markets. Ukraine has now banned exports entirely as a wartime security measure, and financial sanctions on Russia are making global buyers wary of purchasing Russian bushels at all.
The sunflower side of it. That yellow band on the Ukrainian flag is meant to depict the country’s vast golden fields of sunflowers. Ukraine is the single largest exporter of sunflower oil, accounting for more than 40% of the global supply. Russia isn’t far behind at about a quarter of the market. Sunflower oil is a crucial cooking oil for households in many developing countries (and it’s also the source of the crisp in potato chips.) The war has already halted activity at Ukraine’s sunflower crushing plants, causing a knock-on surge in demand for substitutes like palm oil, which is now also seeing soaring prices.
Fertile soil for a bigger crisis. What do farmers need to produce wheat and other crops? Aside from sun, land, water, and love, they need fertilizer, and lots of it. Who is the number one exporter of fertilizer? Russia. Moscow has already banned fertilizer exports, raising production costs for farmers from Boise to Brazil.
Who gets hurt the most? Higher food prices rattle the kitchen table in all countries, but those on the brink are the most vulnerable. More than 800 million people are already food insecure, says the UN, warning that 44 million people in 38 different countries could be pushed into outright famine this year.
For the Middle East and North Africa, it’s a perfect storm of challenges, says Ahmed Morsy, a Middle East analyst at Eurasia Group. “It’s three or four different pressures at the same time, from food and energy prices to global inflation at large. It’s unlike anything we’ve ever seen.”
As for food, the region is heavily dependent on Russian and Ukrainian grain. In Egypt, the largest single importer of Russian and Ukrainian wheat, market prices for bread have soared 50% already this month, with the government warning that wheat reserves are dwindling. Crisis-wracked Lebanon is facing shortages as well, while Libya, Tunisia, and Algeria are all on edge. War-ravaged Yemen, meanwhile, depends on the two countries for about 40% of its wheat imports, and is already facing famine.- War in Ukraine: cascading impacts on global food supply - GZERO Media ›
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