Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
A boat with a French flag sails by on the Seine river in Paris, where concerns about the water quality have forced the cancellation of triathlon swim training session for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, on Monday 29 July 2024 in Paris, France.
Hard Numbers: Traversing the Seine, Heroics amid wildfires, Kim’s ‘miraculous’ rescue, Harris reenergizes Dem campaign, Dance class tragedy
18 million: As questions arise over the River Seine’s cleanliness and its impact on the Olympics, the river remains important for other reasons. In 2023,18 million tons of goods were carried on the river, but that’s less than one-third the amount that traveled on it before World War II.
1.5: In California, wildfires have burned an area larger than the size of Los Angeles – and the blazes are only 12% contained, according to local officials. But there is some positive news: A first responder ran1.5 miles through an area ravaged by wildfires to rescue two dogs and their litter of puppies. There are pictures!
5,000: He saved puppies?? “Hold my beer,” says North Korea’s Supreme Leader. DPRK state media reports thatKim Jong Un has “personally guided” the “miraculous” military rescue of 5,000 people trapped by flood waters following torrential rains over the weekend. That guy really is amazing.
81: A couple of new polls suggest that soon-to-be Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has erased the enthusiasm advantage that GOP nominee Donald Trump held over President Joe Biden. The Wall Street Journal reports that just 37% of Dems were excited to vote for Biden while 81% say the same for Harris this week. (Trump is at 85% of GOP voters.) An ABC Ipsos poll finds that 88% of Dems are enthusiastic about Harris vs. 82% of Republicans who are enthusiastic about voting for Trump.
2: The seaside town of Southport, UK, is in mourning today following Monday's deadly stabbing attack at a children’s Taylor Swift-themed dance class. Two youngsters were killed and another six children and two adults are in critical condition following the knife attack. Police have arrested a 17-year-old male who lived in a nearby village and are investigating the motive but have ruled out terrorism.
A satellite image shows smoke rising from the Park Fire in Chico, California, U.S., July 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: California burns, Countries push for cease-fire, Meloni makes nice, Japan basks in Olympic glory
350,000: The Park fire in northern California has burned through over 350,000 acres of land — an area larger than New York City — and was just 10% contained as of Sunday. Authorities said the fire was spreading at a rate of 5,000 acres per hour, and police arrested a man who they suspect of having deliberately set the blaze in an act of arson.
3: On Friday, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada jointly called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and for Israel to respond “substantively” to a July 19 ruling from the International Court of Justice about the illegality of Israeli settlements and military occupation in the West Bank. The statement came a day after US Vice President Kamala Harris urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a Gaza deal.
3: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melonisigned a three-year deal with China while visiting Beijing on Saturday. She also promised to implement earlier bilateral agreements derailed by shifting geopolitics and to try new forms of cooperation. Meloni won praise from the US for officially pulling out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative last year, but with a possible Sino-European trade war looming – aggravated by China dumping its production overcapacity on world markets – she seems to be more conciliatory these days.
7: As of Sunday afternoon, Japan was leading the Olympic medal count with 7 podium finishes, including two golds in Judo. The lesson here is clear: Don’t wrestle with Japanese athletes. There will be more Judo finals on Monday, with a total of 19 gold medals to be awarded in finals across events in artistic gymnastics, swimming, shooting, diving, equestrian, mountain biking, skateboarding, archery, fencing, and canoe slalom (yep, that last one threw us too – here’s a primer).FILE PHOTO: Satellite image shows wildfires in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, September 24, 2023.
Alberta sounds alarm on 2024 wildfire season
It’s already begun … The Alberta government on Tuesday declared an early start to the 2024 wildfire season as firefighters there prepare for a hot, dry year ahead. Across Canada, authorities are bracing for a difficult year of fires after a record-setting year in 2023, which sent smoke plumes to population centers across the continent.
A warming climate is making forests drier and more susceptible to big, dangerous fires. More than 100 “zombie fires” (dormant in winter) are still smoldering in Western Canada, where they pose a threat when the weather warms up again.
“It's not something I've seen in any of the data sets,” Wilfrid Laurier University biology professor Jennifer Baltzer told CBC. “What we don't know is how many of these will actually translate to reignition in the spring.”
The continental United States was largely spared last year, and so far the projections look good for 2024 but worrying for the long term.Wildfires spread after lightning strikes in British Columbia, Canada, on July 01, 2021.
Are parts of Canada and the US uninsurable?
One of Eurasia Group’s Top Risks is El Nino, the climate warming event that is triggering storms, floods, and fires and helping make this the warmest year on record. This will come as no surprise to most of you, who are either prepping for a weather event right now or having flashbacks to choking on smoke from the Canadian wildfires. The politics of climate change get repetitive and, frankly, can be boring— “yeah, yeah, we need to do something about global warming, but dude, have you seen the cost of housing these days …” Fair point. which is why the connection between the real cost of weather events and housing is so critical to keep in mind.
According to the Insurance Bureau of Canada, Canada’s insured damage from natural disasters and severe weather events in 2023 topped CA$3 billion dollars for the second year in a row. It was the fourth-worst year in history, and the effects are driving up the costs of insurance.
And this is where it gets scary. Right now, more than 1.5 million homes can’t get affordable flood insurance, IBC says. If risk costs for fires and floods go up much more, some places in North America will simply be uninsurable – unless governments step in, and that is truly costly. In a time when there is a housing shortage and costs are already sky-high, how can people build or buy a home if they can’t get insurance?
“As homeowners struggle with affordability challenges across Canada and the US, rising insurance premiums compound their difficulties,” says Craig Stewart, president of IBC. “However, this pales to the financial difficulties they face if insurance is unavailable, they suffer a flood or wildfire, and their home is damaged or destroyed. As climate change–driven events escalate and insured losses increase, insurers are taking a much closer look with improved data and, in some cases, AI, to flag high-risk regions of North America. New builds in high-risk areas will face difficulty in getting insurance and, possibly, financing as these trends continue.”
Insurers are looking at the last El Nino event in 2009-2010, where, in places like California, there were over 6,000 wildfires. Rates are now so high that many homeowners there can’t get affordable insurance.
So, the El Nino storm doesn’t just mean worrying that the roof over your head might get blown away – it’s that you might not be able to get a roof at all.