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Next steps for a world at a make-or-break moment: Davos 2022
For years, titans of industry and government have visited the tiny alpine village of Davos in Switzerland to discuss how to fix the world's problems.
They pushed a globalist agenda, promoting things like liberal democracy and cooperation to address big problems like climate change.
But less people are buying what Davos is selling in 2022. Blame the pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine. So, what were the main takeaways at this year's geopolitical WEF?
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to thought leaders at this year's World Economic Forum:- Wolfgang Ischinger, former chair of the Munich Security Conference, about the current state of transatlantic relations, and why Europe has learned to have America's back on China.
- Moisés Naim, distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how the WEF is slowly losing power, and the perfect political storm brewing in Latin America.
- Gillian Tett, US editor-at-large and chair of the Financial Times board, about the unusual outpour of human emotion at the WEF, where the Ukrainian delegation got a rare standing ovation.
Bonus: The place where Russian oligarchs used to hang out in Davos is now an exhibit about ... Russian war crimes.
Podcast: When allies unified by Ukraine confront upended security & war fatigue
Listen: At the 2022 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, it was clear that history is at a turning point, with a war in Europe whose cascading impact can be felt all over the globe. But this year’s WEF wasn’t just about the many crises we’re facing. It was also a referendum on the forum itself, and the strength of the multilateral values it defends. Ian Bremmer speaks to thought leaders at Davos on the GZERO World podcast. Wolfgang Ischinger, former German Ambassador to the US, thinks the world is in pretty good shape, but worries about Ukraine. Venezuela's former trade minister Moises Naim believes that world affairs are causing great uncertainty around the globe. Journalist and chair of the editorial board at the Financial Times, Gillian Tett, applauds Ukraine for its efforts to rally support for their cause.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Highlights from Davos 2022
World leaders gathered this week in Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum at a moment of heightened global uncertainty.
Three months into the Russian war in Ukraine, the conflict seems no closer to resolution. A global food crisis — made worse by the war — is putting more than a billion people at risk of food insecurity. Meanwhile, cyberattacks and misinformation continue to wreak havoc around the globe.
The world faces many dangerous challenges, but the biggest one may be this: “you can’t solve a problem unless you agree on what the problem is,” says GZERO’s Ian Bremmer.
Check out GZERO’s highlights from Davos, and be sure to watch our panel discussion from the event, entitled “Crisis in a digital world.”
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Wolfgang Ischinger: Ukraine made German foreign policy go "out the window"
For Wolfgang Ischinger, former chair of the Munich Security Conference, the state of transatlantic relations is in good shape right now, although whether we'll have the stamina to stay on course is uncertain. In a Global Stage interview with Ian Bremmer, he seems more worried about American war fatigue than the Europeans — although the EU has Viktor Orbán and it's hard for Germany to cut off Russian gas. One lesson Ischinger has learned from the current crisis is that Europe must have America's back on China, especially with Taiwan. And he calls German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's recent foreign policy U-turns as "going out the window."
Ian Bremmer: With my friend Wolfgang Ischinger here at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Wolfgang, so state of transatlantic relations today, from the Davos perspective, what do you think?
Wolfgang Ischinger: Good shape. Better than at any time in recent memory. If we had had a Davos a year ago, we would've been talking about the debacle of Afghanistan, et cetera. We're in good shape now. NATO is essentially on track, the European Union has surprisingly not fallen apart. I think my only concern is if it is correct to assume that this war in Ukraine will drag on for not weeks but months, are we going to be in good shape three, six, nine months down the road? That's my concern. Are we going to have the stamina to stay on course?
Ian Bremmer: Now, question; to the extent that war fatigue is starting to set in over time, and again, I think most people presume this is not ending any time soon.
Wolfgang Ischinger: Exactly.
Ian Bremmer: Does it come first from the Europeans or from the Americans? And why?
Wolfgang Ischinger: Well, let's talk about America for a moment. You guys have elections coming up, midterm elections, and I'm not so certain that the average American voter is going to like the idea of paying higher gas prices and spending more money on foreign expeditions, etc., etc. So I'm worried a little bit about the American commitment longer term. In Europe, I think at the moment we're in good shape, but of course we have these outliers. We have Viktor Orbán.
Ian Bremmer: Hungary.
Wolfgang Ischinger: We have Hungary, and we have a couple of other partners that have specific interests. Germany has its own problem with gas. I wish I could say in six weeks or in 12 weeks, we're going to be able to cut gas imports from Russia. It's hard to do. It's hard to do, and I feel sorry for those in my own government who have to respond to this urgent question from our Ukrainian partners. When are you going to stop financing the Russian war of aggression by continuing to buy this stuff? But then again, it's not going to help if Germany cuts gas imports now. With the obvious, obvious consequence of a significant recession, then of course the commitment by the German wider public for our Ukrainian determination will surely shrink. And whose interest would we serve with that? So this is really a dilemma.
Ian Bremmer: And the Americans and the Europeans have had diversion perspectives for a while on Russia that are now aligning. They've also had some diversion perspectives on China for a while.
Wolfgang Ischinger: Yes. Yeah.
Ian Bremmer: Are they now aligning?
Wolfgang Ischinger: I think there's one lesson we are learning, we Europeans. We cannot ignore that the US is looking at a huge problem, potential problem with China, with the Taiwan issue, etc. And we cannot possibly leave the United States alone in that. In other words, we need to understand that even though this is many thousands of miles away, it is in our interest to get involved. Maybe not militarily, we don't have the capacities militarily, but certainly politically, and we need much closer coordination between Washington, and Brussels, and Berlin and Paris on China.
Ian Bremmer: And Olaf Scholz so far, when you saw that initial speech he gave, the turning point speech he gave, did it reflect for you a new strategic vision for Germany? Is this a new generation for Germany in politics or is it more modest than that?
Wolfgang Ischinger: No. It was a major decision. Look, essential elements of established German foreign policy went up the chimney.
Ian Bremmer: We'd say out the window.
Wolfgang Ischinger: Out the window.
Ian Bremmer: But that sounds more definitive, if it's up the chimney.
Wolfgang Ischinger: Out the window. The idea which about which we had been preaching for many years, the future partnership with Russia; out the window, no longer possible. The idea of a security order for all of Europe, with Russia included; out the window. In other words for no country has this Russian attack against Ukraine produced more sharp cuts and the need for total revision of our foreign policy. The problem for Olaf Scholz is not that he gave the wrong speech. The problem for him is that it's not so clear that all of his followers in his own party agree with his speech-
Ian Bremmer: Social democrats.
Wolfgang Ischinger: And with the consequences of spending a hundred billion extra on defense, and on meeting the 2% defense goal going forward, etc. So, he has to fight this internal political fight, not against the opposition, which supports him, but against his own party.
Ian Bremmer: The Americans have been saying for a long time, how come the Europeans aren't sacrificing the Germans? The Europeans are sacrificing more this time around. There's no question.
Wolfgang Ischinger: Yes. Absolutely.
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Highlights from our live conversation on cybersecurity challenges
Cyber is a tool, and sometimes a weapon. Whether used for commercial gain or for attacks on critical infrastructure, actions taken in cyberspace affect you directly. This means that even the most mundane realities of everyday life are vulnerable to hackers.
In our live May 18 event, "Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace," we asked our speakers what we can do to safeguard cyberspace from future attacks.
Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, (above) explains "there are three different levels of cooperation we desperately need to reduce a threat that right now is growing exponentially for our national securities at home." At one level, there needs to be greater coordination between the private and public sectors in the US. It needs to be "much deeper, much more structural, much more efficient" than what we currently have, says Bremmer.
This step requires us to acknowledge that cybersecurity is no longer different from physical security. Technology runs every aspect of our lives now, including our physical infrastructure as the Colonial Pipeline hack so evidently proved. So, with increasing cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, cyber defense needs to become more sophisticated. This requires the tech sector to continue to develop stronger security protection while the public and private sectors simultaneously implement cybersecurity practices across the board, says Brad Smith, president of Microsoft.
Microsoft's Brad Smith on the Pervasive Dangers of Ransomware Attacks | Global Stage | GZERO Mediawww.youtube.com
Jane Harman, President Emerita of the Wilson Center and former ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, notes that "the markers have been here for years about the impact of cyber" on US infrastructure. The SolarWinds and Colonial Pipeline hacks are just incidents in a series of cyberattacks that further emphasize how sophisticated hackers are, and how unprepared the US has become.
Harman added that the US specifically bungled its response to the SolarWinds hack because a private firm found out first. That's why Biden's executive order mandating private firms in business with the US government to immediately report such cyberattacks is a good first step, but it needs to be more robust. The private sector as a whole needs to coordinate better with the US government. Executive orders are "not enough" to tackle one of the United States' most difficult problems.
Biden's Executive Orders Are “Not Enough," Says Jane Harman | Global Stage | GZERO Mediawww.youtube.com
Greater coordination between the US and its transatlantic allies is the second level of cooperation we need to reduce the cybersecurity threat. But mistrust, which is both deep and structural, is standing in the way.
"Trust is the currency of diplomacy", according to Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference. In its absence, the US and its allies have a serious obstacle standing in their way when it comes to issues like global cybersecurity cooperation. "Europeans across the board, don't even trust their own governments" or companies let alone the US government and American companies, says Ischinger. "But the really worrisome thing is that [Europeans] mistrust Americans almost as much, … as they mistrust the Chinese."
Wolfgang Ischinger: "Europeans Don't Even Trust Their Own Governments" | Global Stage | GZERO Mediawww.youtube.com
That is why rebuilding trust across the Atlantic is an important part of the way forward for cybersecurity, says Smith. It may be hard for people, including the United States government, to fully understand the impact the current lack of trust has on cybersecurity. But there needs to be greater transparency between countries that intend to work together to combat growing waves of distrust. Transparency "is central to everything else we need to do together to address the cybersecurity threats we're seeing around the world," says Smith.
Microsoft's Brad Smith on Actions Needed to Build Cyber Trust | Global Stage | GZERO Mediawww.youtube.com
Lastly, we must seek a broader level of global coordination and trust, says Bremmer. "While we all recognize we need that, we are right now heading in the opposite direction."
However, there is some hope on the horizon as we are becoming more away of this crisis. "It is moving up in the league of tables in terms of major policymakers around the world understanding that this is a real threat" we need to address. This leads Bremmer to feel fairly confident in the resources that will be devoted to global cybersecurity cooperation over the next five years.
"Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace," a Global Stage live conversation on cyber challenges facing governments, companies, and citizens, was recorded on May 18, 2021. It's presented by GZERO Media and Microsoft, and held in collaboration with the Munich Security Conference as part of their "Road to Munich" series.
A (global) solution for cybercrime
The recent ransomware cyberattack on the Colonial Pipeline in the US has exposed how vulnerable critical infrastructure is to hackers, whether they are motivated by money or politics. What can we do about this?
Part of the way forward is acknowledging that there is no longer a distinction between cyber and physical security. The world runs on tech, so people are right to worry about it, Microsoft President Brad Smith said during a livestream discussion on cybersecurity hosted by GZERO Media and Microsoft. The conversation, "Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace," held in collaboration with the Munich Security Conference as part of their "Road to Munich" series, was moderated by former US Homeland Security senior official Juliette Kayyem.
The latest attack is different in scale, but not new. And one of the reasons these hacks are likely to become more frequent, he added, is that our defenses are not keeping up with the threats.
Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, agreed. Cybersecurity, he explained, is a top risk because there is new tech and no architecture to stop cybercriminals. Moreover, the US relations with the two other countries with similar cyber-offensive capabilities — China and Russia — are at their worst point in decades, with no chance of a reset anytime soon.
Two months before the Colonial Pipeline hack, the cybersecurity buzz was all about SolarWinds, another major cyberattack on thousands of firms, including US government agencies, blamed on Russia. Smith said that SolarWinds showed how sophisticated hackers have become, and Wilson Center President Emerita Jane Harman added that the US bungled its response because a private firm found out before anyone else.
The silver lining from both attacks, Harman noted, is that they pushed the Biden administration to issue an executive order that mandates private corporations to immediately inform the government of such cyberattacks.
Meanwhile, the US needs to rethink its military procurement. For Ian Bremmer, the Pentagon spends a lot on tech to upgrade legacy hardware, but nowhere near enough on cyber — the opposite of what China's doing. That's right, Harman noted, but the DOD and Congress will likely push back.
The wider problem, however, is that we now live in the world where governments are not solely responsible for defending our critical infrastructure, Smith said. How the private sector responds is equally important.
Biden's executive order, he added, is no panacea but it is the most significant step forward in decades because it mandates companies that do business with the federal government to take this issue a lot more seriously. And that'll influence how software is developed across America because the federal government contracts out so much of its IT work.
More broadly, the chances of a more sustainable solution to the problem lie in more international cooperation, said Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference.
Although governments no longer have the monopoly on power to do harm to each other, the US should still reach out to its allies to fight cybercrime together. This may sound like a dream right now, he admitted, but then again so did nuclear disarmament at the height of the Cold War.
For Smith, who has long called for a Cyber Geneva Convention to set global norms, the reasons now are the same as in the aftermath of World War II: we have a moral and legal responsibility to protect civilians, who are ultimately the most vulnerable to the consequences of cyberattacks.
"Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace," a Global Stage live conversation on cyber challenges facing governments, companies, and citizens, was recorded on May 18, 2021, and was held in collaboration with the Munich Security Conference as part of their "Road to Munich" series. Sign up for alerts about more upcoming GZERO events.
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Wolfgang Ischinger: "Europeans don't even trust their own governments"
Ischinger spoke during a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and other experts for GZERO Media that was also sponsored by Microsoft, about the role of the government and companies in cyber-security.
"Beyond SolarWinds: Securing Cyberspace," a Global Stage live conversation on cyber challenges facing governments, companies, and citizens, was recorded on May 18, and was held in collaboration with the Munich Security Conference as part of their "Road to Munich" series. Sign up for alerts about more upcoming GZERO events.
Quick Take: "America Is Back": Biden on Munich's virtual tour
Ian's Quick Take:
Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here on a snowy Friday in New York City. But if it was any other year, I'd actually be in Munich right now for the annual Munich Security Conference. It's the largest gathering every year of foreign and security policy leaders and experts from the transatlantic community, and increasingly from around the world. It's, for obvious reasons, postponed this year, they're hoping to put something together in the summer in-person, but that didn't stop some of the most prominent leaders across the transatlantic partners from speaking virtually at an event that streamed live over a few hours today. So, given that I thought I'd give you a quick response on what I thought was happening and answer some of your questions.
So, first of all, President Biden, Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and the UK's Boris Johnson all spoke today, as well as multilateral leaders like António Guterres, my buddy from the UN and Dr. Tedros Adhanom of the World Health Organization. The pandemic, vaccine rollout, distribution, renewed commitment to transatlantic partnerships, the big topics today.
Let me first give you some highlights. Obviously, the big news is a sense of enthusiasm from the leaders that were speaking. You look at the transatlantic relationship, America First under President Trump was not meant to be popular in Europe, it was not popular in Europe. All of the leaders speaking today with Biden, happy to bang on the message that the United States is back on the global stage and embraces multilateralism and wants to work primarily with American allies.
Biden himself, committing to working together with partners on a host of issues like pandemic response and vaccine distribution, as well as climate change. Just a very different top-line message, a very different feel from the American president than we've seen from the last four years of Trump. Maybe the most interesting point from Joe Biden was him describing the world as being at an inflection point, calling out the need to defend democracy in the United States, as well as in Europe and saying to combat the rise of autocracy, you have to demonstrate that democracy can deliver for our people. And on the back of January 6th in the United States, on the back of a contested election, that many Americans still believe was stolen, on the back of so many in Western democracies that increasingly see the Chinese model seems stable and it's economically continuing to succeed, but they're getting angry about the effectiveness of their own democracies well before they exported, that certainly was a message, not of American exceptionalism, but rather of American potential, rather of what needs to be done, the work that needs to be done before the US can really be back. I think it's important, it's fine to say that America's back, but it's not like everybody really believes that we can just jump into the status quo ante.
Angela Merkel, this is her swan song. This is 16 years of Chancellor of Germany, and they come to an end this year. A very similar message, a very aligned message. I felt pretty confident that both Merkel and Biden had read each other's draft speeches before they gave their own comments, which is kind of a nice thing to see, shared belief that the democracy is the foundation of the transatlantic partnership, more than shared security, more than economic interests, alignment of values. Again, something that has taken an enormous hit over the past several years, both inside Europe and increasingly inside the United States to an even greater degree. And so, even though the allies may not agree on every issue and in some, they clearly don't, that on core values compared to countries like Russia and Iran and China and other rogue States around the world, that this is what the transatlantic relationship is founded on, and certainly what the Munich Security Conference has been founded on.
The reality is that there is near-term relief from everybody appearing, but also a lot of long-term mistrust, at least unease and still not an awful lot of real policy alignment. I mean, you see President Biden right before this speech announcing tougher "buy American" clauses to ensure that when the US spends trillions of dollars in relief and stimulus, that it goes to the United States and its corporations, and it doesn't go to other countries around the world, no matter how aligned they are. That is much more of an America First policy perspective, and much more unilateralism than the multilateralism that is being touted. But of course, that's a reality for how politics in Washington gets done, especially given how divided and how angry the population is. Europe doing an awful lot of that on issues like trade and technology as well. The US much more worried about China as the principal national security threat out there. Europe, it depends on who you talk to, not so much. Economics, much more important. Certainly, willingness to go after China on values, much, much weaker in the case of Europe these days. And the United States, increasingly not as interested in the Middle East, not like Europe has much of a choice, geographically and that is also going to be an area of tension.
Among other major themes today, climate for sure. Bill Gates, giving a speech drawing comparisons between climate change and global response on pandemic saying, "There is no vaccine for the environment and that we can't wait until it's too late." By the way, I'd add, there's also no vaccine for political divisions inside the United States and Europe. Another big problem, perhaps one that we'll hear Biden say in future speeches. Gates also said that by the end of the century, climate change will kill five times as many people per year as the pandemic is right now. Clearly that is what he is pivoting towards in terms of top priorities now that the vaccines have such a strong kickstart in the United States and increasingly in Europe too.
Also heard today on climate from John Kerry, President Biden's Special Envoy for Climate, it is a cabinet position, a new one, that climate change must be treated as a national security issue. Everyone in the Biden administration is rowing in the same direction on that. By the way, we expect at least two to $3 trillion for green infrastructure after the 1.9 trillion in initial coronavirus relief is passed in the coming weeks. That is an enormously big deal for 2021 made possible because you actually have 50 Democrats in Senate. A lot of that will be paid for by taxes, additional taxes, corporate taxes, taxes on the wealthy, but a lot of that's going to be more deficit financing as well. So, you're going to have your infrastructure year after so much failure for so many decades in the United States for not putting money into that as we see playing out in Texas, for example, right now. Also, Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister calling for building back better and greener after the pandemic, certainly wanting to show how aligned he is with the US and the Biden administration after the shambolic Brexit proceedings over the course of the last five plus years.
Cyber and technology, also a big topic. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen notably calling for ensuring that what is illegal offline is also illegal online and for internet companies to take a lot more responsibility for that. By the way, this is clearly the issue where there's very little alignment between the US and Europe. There is certainly no strategy between the two. I would argue that the Europeans mistrust the United States on tech policy almost as much as they mistrust China, which is quite something and going to be very hard to align this year.
Anyway, the first of several virtual events like this, I'm sure, on the road to Munich 2021, organizers of the conference, very optimistic that an in-person or hybrid event is going to happen later this year. When it does, GZERO will certainly be there to cover it.
Okay, I said I'd answer a couple of your questions. Here we go. I have them from you.
Number one, isn't it in the EU's interest to see more pro-China now that they are their biggest trade partners?
Oh, absolutely. I mean, lots of sharp language about the challenge posed by China across the board and the need to put up better competition. But the Europeans clearly see that on issues of trade and investment, China matters a lot more to them. And unless the United States has a very clear and aligned strategy that is very attractive to the Europeans in the near term, they are going to continue to hedge like crazy. Keep in mind, China's only getting bigger. By 2028, the expectation is that China becomes the largest economy in the world with a very different economic model, a very different political model, a very different technological model, a very different set of standards and architecture. The transatlantic relationship was set up common values, but also security dealing with Russia where actually for the United States, the principal concern now overwhelmingly is China and that's a real serious problem.
Okay. How much does Merkel's departure and Super Mario's arrival matter for US-European relations?
Surprisingly, not a single direct mention of Mario Draghi today. I'm a little shocked about that. I mean, this guy, after Merkel, is the most significant, the most respected leader on the European continent and he has just taken over a big majority as Prime Minister in Italy. This is the best news for one of the largest economies in the EU and he is a super advocate of stronger, more integrated European Union and a strong relationship with the United States. I'm really surprised that there were no callouts about Draghi's. The biggest, biggest mistake in my view made by the leaders speaking today. But I certainly think it will be good for US-EU relations, it will be good for keeping the Europeans closer together. As we know, in Italy, you can never count on governments for long, but this one is good while it lasts.
What will the international community do to ensure universal vaccine equity, particularly where's there's minimal state capacity and/or regime reluctance?
It's going to be tough. It's great that we saw that Joe Biden is committing $2 billion to COVAX with a pledge of an additional $2 billion if others step up. Emmanuel Macron talking about Africa, specifically, calling for a lot more aid to ensure that all healthcare workers there, he says about 6.5 million people, get the vaccine immediately. But the reality is you're getting vaccines to wealthy countries well before it gets to poorer countries, well before it gets to the poorest countries. You're rolling out vaccines, really fast to the wealthy countries, it's extraordinary. Most of the world still hasn't gotten their first jab yet. In most of the world's countries still haven't gotten their first job yet. So, there is an obvious and massive question on vaccine equity and it's going to hurt a lot of the economies of the world pretty stiffly. It's more of an economic issue than a healthcare issue. So many of these countries, very, very young people, which means not many people get really sick. Most of the spread is asymptomatic, but it's going to hurt them in terms of reopening their economies, getting their people to travel, remittances that come from that, all of these challenges, that's a big lift. I hope we'll see more.
So, that's it for me. I hope you enjoyed this. I hope you found the Munich coverage interesting and worthwhile and have a great weekend. Stay safe, stay warm and avoid people.