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IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks to the media during an International Monetary and Financial Committee press briefing on Friday, Oct. 25, 2024.
IMF and World Bank close annual meetings with urgent call for fragile economies
“The world now faces a low-growth, high-debt trajectory,” said Georgieva. Governments in developing countries now face a “trilemma” of needing to increase spending – sometimes by as much as 14% – while being unable to raise tax revenues as they face fiscal buffers exhausted by the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath. And she acknowledged that the Fund’s projections include “a severe, but plausible scenario” in which global public debt could exceed the baseline by some 20%.
That risk is compounded by growing political opposition to free trade, which Georgieva characterized as a “retreat from global economic integration driven by both national security concerns and the anger of those who lost out.” Reduced trade will hamper growth and push countries to borrow more to make up the difference.
These pressures pose the highest risk for sub-Saharan Africa, already struggling with high debt and lacking the levels of growth necessary to get ahead. Speaking at a separate event on Friday, the IMF’s Africa Director Abebe Selassie said the region will likely grow by 4.2% in 2025, well below the 6-7% growth rates enjoyed previously. “This pace is not sufficient to significantly reduce poverty or to recover ground lost in recent years, let alone address the substantial developmental challenges ahead,” he said.
So what can be done? World Bank President Ajay Banga gave an introspective prescription at the closing plenary: Simplify, simplify, simplify. “Development delayed is development denied,” he explained while outlining progress on reducing the time the World Bank takes to approve projects from an average of 19 to 12 months, and faster where possible. The Bank has made a substantial improvement — they’re down to 16 months — but time is money, as the saying goes, and more haste will make the Bank’s programs more effective in Banga’s view.
On the IMF’s side (often more concerned with stabilization than development), Georgieva outlined three tools: rebuilding fiscal buffers in vulnerable economies, investing in growth that can ease debt burdens, and taking a cooperative approach across borders.
Of course, much depends on factors outside the control of these development finance institutions. We’re watching how the results of the US election, the roiling debt and property market problems in China, and the conflicts in Ukraine, the Levant, Sudan, and elsewhere affect the outlook.
Hot topics at the IMF-World Bank meetings
Delegates at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings have been giving rosy outlooks to the press while the cameras are rolling, but GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick heard a different story in private settings. He told Tony Maciulis that the global outlook depends heavily on US policy continuity — which is highly unlikely under a second Trump administration — and successful efforts in China to revive its own floundering economy.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Delegates are eager to point to success stories, including in Ukraine and Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting how the world’s leading development banks can make a real impact on some of the most fragile economies and vulnerable populations.
Watch to learn more about what Matt heard on the ground.
Watch more from Global Stage.
Global economy at risk if Middle East conflict expands, says World Bank's Ayhan Kose
While the global economy shows signs of growth and decreasing inflation, the near future involves risks, including the escalation in the Middle East impacting oil prices, strained China-US relations, and an increasingly challenging tariff and trade environment, said Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist. He discussed the geopolitical tensions influencing the global economy with GZERO's Tony Maciulis at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, in a GZERO Global Stage interview. Kose also addressed the other major economic gathering happening this week: Russia’s 16th annual BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, largely seen as a counterweight to Western-led order. While acknowledging the widening economic and geopolitical divide, Kose emphasized the need for international cooperation. He expressed concern about “the increase in the number of protectionist measures and consequences of that for global trade.” Kose also emphasized the "urgent and important" need for World Bank member nations to continue to support development in poorer countries, a more difficult conversation today as many face their own economic headwinds and the world awaits the results of the 2024 US presidential election.
Ukrainian central bank head Andriy Pryshnyy (right) at the 2024 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC. Oct. 23, 2024
Ukraine secures fifth round of IMF funding, but less talk of reconstruction
The International Monetary Fund announced Wednesday that Ukraine had successfully completed the fifth revision of its financing program and will receive $1.1 billion to support its non-military budget. This is a major achievement for Kyiv and has required extensive reforms while at war. It’s a war that has not gone well in the last year to boot, and talk about reconstruction — and the IMF and World Bank’s roles therein — has diminished as a result.
Notably absent from this year’s IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings is a marquee discussion of funding for Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva wrote that Ukraine’s “recovery is expected to slow amid headwinds from the impact of the attacks on energy infrastructure and the continuing war, while risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high.”
Ukraine’s central bank chief Andriy Pyshnyy emphasized the importance of contingency planning under such circumstances, and continuing reforms even if the military situation worsens. Ultimately, they will help Ukraine meet the standards necessary to join the EU — and Kyiv sees greater integration with the West as the best, if not only, way to achieve long-term security.
“Uncertainty is our new reality,” said Pyshnyy at a press event on Wednesday. He credited the IMF’s responsiveness and his own staff’s grit in helping the country overcome panic and anxiety when Russia invaded, and he has set in motion plans to increase the country’s financial resilience.
Maintaining public confidence in the banking system by making sure everyone can access their money when they need it is crucial to keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat. Ukraine’s banks are now capable of functioning in blackout conditions, which has prevented panic withdrawals. The violence has also left many Ukrainians disabled, which has led to changes Pyshnyy said he hopes will lead Ukraine’s “financial system to be the most accessible in the world.”
“We believe in our victory,” said Pyshnyy. “We believe that tomorrow can be better than today.”
Signage for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group (WBG) 2024 Annual Meetings is seen at the IMF secondary headquarters, in Washington, D.C., on Monday, October 21, 2024.
Has the world made progress in tackling poverty?
The last time the World Bank and International Monetary Fund held their landmark conference in April, speakers placed great emphasis on each institution’s role in helping the world’s poorest people get a leg up. Not an easy task by any measure — particularly with geopolitics interfering — so just ahead of the release of their latest World Economic Outlook for this week’s Annual Meetings, how have things gone?
Soft landing for rich countries, rocky shores for poor ones. The topline number for global economic growth is deceptive: At 2.6%, the projection seems pretty meh — not great but hardly a catastrophe, particularly if inflation stays under control. Scratch the surface, though, and you’ll find that the world’s 26 poorest countries are deeper in debt than at any time since 2006 while development aid from rich countries has fallen to its lowest level since 2003. The World Bank, in particular, will need to find creative ways to help these most vulnerable economies climb the development ladder.
Electrifying Africa. The flagship program launched at the Spring Meetings in April, a $90 billion effort to bring electricity to some 300 million people across the continent, will also be discussed. “Mission 300” is off to a promising start: The World Bank has allocated $750 million to building rooftop solar and mini-grids in Nigeria, which could bring electricity to nearly 18 million people in Africa’s most populous nation. They’ve also launched 15 smaller projects across 11 other countries in a similar vein, and a summit on the next steps is planned for January in Dar es Salaam.
Bailouts make progress. As the lender of last resort, the International Monetary Fund has to tackle the toughest cases of financial collapse, which was heavily exacerbated by the pandemic. Fortunately, their five largest bailout programs (Argentina, Egypt, Ukraine, Pakistan, and Ecuador) are all on relatively stable fiscal footing, though geopolitical risks remain threats, particularly for Kyiv and Islamabad.
FILE PHOTO: MF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during a press briefing at the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) plenary session at the IMF and World Bank?s 2024 annual Spring Meetings in Washington, U.S., April 19, 2024.
Building a better world: GZERO on the ground at IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings
The great and the good of international development are in Washington, DC, this week for the most important event on their annual calendar: the World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings. Heavy hitters like World Bank President Ajay Banga and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will discuss the world’s economic outlook in 2025, while central bank heads from some of the most fragile economies will discuss their successes and challenges.
Ukraine’s central bank chief will talk about how to keep his country’s economy functioning with Russian missiles raining down while young Ukrainians in their prime are fighting in trenches instead of building wealth. Pakistan’s finance minister will focus on his country’s daunting challenges, from devastating floods and massive debt to deeply divisive politics. And on a more positive note, South Africa’s central bank chief will be happy to discuss the rand’s hopeful summer turnaround – and what it could mean for the Rainbow Nation.
GZERO Senior Writer Matthew Kendrick will be rubbing elbows to broach the elephant in the room: What is everyone thinking about the US election? GZERO’s Chief Content Officer Tony Maciulis will be interviewing M. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s deputy chief economist, and Hana Brixi, global director of gender, among others. We’ll also cover efforts to ensure that development is spread evenly across societies and focus on women’s empowerment and health care. Don’t forget to follow Tony, Matt, and GZERO on social media to stay up to date.Shopping in a Whole Foods Market supermarket in New York on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.
Global economy brightens, and US inflation eases, but costs remain high
It's time for a mid-year economic checkup! According to the World Bank, the global economy has improved since the start of the year. Growth increased by 2.6%, and average inflation is at a three-year low – bringing us closer to the “soft landing” economists have aimed for since the end of the COVID-19 shutdown. And experts say we have the strength of the US economy to thank.
This may come as news to Americans irked by high prices at home, but US inflation fell 3.3% in May, leading traders in the futures market to raise their bets on a September rate cut to 84% and causing the S&P 500 to jump 1.3%.
The news also has Joe Biden jumping … for joy. Polls show that the economy is one of – if not the biggest – issues in the 2024 election, and he has lagged behind Donald Trump in polls.
While rates could begin to fall in September, central bankers warn the risk of further inflation remains high, so they are unlikely to reverse the last two years of rate hikes quickly.
But even if interest rates or prices fall, the cost of big-ticket items like housing, healthcare, childcare, and higher education have been climbing unabated for years, trapping the US economy in a much harder-to-solve affordability crisis and keeping voters pessimistic about the economy.
Why the UN's 17 Sustainable Development Goals are not on track to be financed soon
The world faces a sustainable development crisis, and while most countries have strategies in place, they don’t have the cash to back them up. How far off track are we with the financing needed to support the UN’s 17 Sustainable Development Goals, ranging from quality education and health care to climate action and clean water?
Shari Spiegel, who runs the UN’s Financing for Sustainable Development Office, sat down with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis at a Global Stage event for the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings this week. She explains that the SDGs were off track even before the pandemic and that now, owing to global crises, many poorer countries have slipped backwards.
“We actually started backtracking on many of these goals as countries were under enormous stress, and particularly the poorest countries,” she said, noting that the global output of many of the poorest nations has fallen by 30% — and some, such as the Small Island Developing States, by 40%. This has led to an enormous finance divide — raising SDG financing and investment gaps from $2 trillion a few years ago to around $4 trillion today.
So how can the UN restrengthen multilateralism and, in turn, help narrow this gap? Watch here.