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The UN will discuss AI rules at this week's General Assembly
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here. And a Quick Take to kick off your week. I'm in New York. Of course I am, because the United Nations General Assembly high-level meetings are kicking off. They will be all week. And of course, that means incredible amounts of traffic. We can handle that because we've got subway that works and a walkable city.
But what's going to happen this week? Interestingly, I think the most important topic of the week, and it's not because of personal bias, is artificial intelligence. And the reason for that is because, unlike every other topic where people generally know what outcomes they want, they just can't get there. They can't move fast enough. Climate change, for example, ending the Russian war in Ukraine, for example, multilateral finance to support lower developed countries. Moving on the Sustainable Development Goals for human development across the world, which has been slipping with the pandemic and with the Russia war. No, in AI we don't know what people want.
People are trying to understand the space and so bring in world leaders together to have high-level meetings on their beliefs around how to govern AI, what to govern specifically, what the institution should look like, what the priorities should be. Those meetings are the ones I personally think will be most interesting. And the Secretary-General, António Guterres, is very personally focused on it. He has been for several years thinking that post, you know, his efforts on climate change, this is the area that he wants to spend the most time on. The Russia war has made that very challenging in terms of a distraction for everybody at the meeting.
But nonetheless, we're now seeing a significant amount of focus of effort. And I suspect that there'll be a lot of news that comes out of those meetings. Beyond that, we've got President Zelensky in Ukraine, and he, of course, will be here in New York. He'll also be in Washington. He's looking for more support for the counteroffensive, more military aid, which Congress continues to be inclined to provide. Also looking to have better relations with the Global South that has largely sat on the sidelines of this war. And there with the Russians bombing grain and grain infrastructure, a lot of countries that were, you know, basically saying this doesn't apply to me increasingly see that it does. And so, yes, Ukraine's in Europe. Yes, Ukraine's a bunch of white people. Yes, it's true. The developed world doesn't pay as much attention to human rights concerns and invasions and coups that happen in sub-Saharan Africa. But the fact is that this war in Ukraine is causing a lot more hardship for the poorest, the hungriest people in the world.
And that's why what I talked to the Secretary-General a couple of days ago, he said his biggest near-term priority is ending the war. Why? Because until you do that, you're going to have underperformance among the poorest of the world's 8 billion. So that's a little bit of what's going to be discussed this week. I think the G-7 meeting on the sidelines is always interesting, especially because the G-7, the world's wealthy democracies, are more aligned on national security issues than they have been historically.
Not much to be seen from Russia. Foreign Minister Lavrov. His statements are well known. They don't move the needle. And the Chinese foreign minister not here. Why? Because he was in Malta meeting with Jake Sullivan to prepare for the coming Biden-Xi bilateral in November at APEC. Now is traveling to meet with the Russians so that they can prepare for the Xi-Putin meeting coming in a month when Putin travels to China. A lot of focus there, but that means that two of the countries that are most problematic for the United States from a geopolitical perspective, not showing up at a high level here in New York City.
That's it for me. It’s going to be fascinating, it’s going to be busy and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Boris Johnson remains a dangerous force in UK politics
Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics, this week from the Oslo airport.
Is the political career of Boris Johnson over?
Seems to be the case but you can never be entirely certain, in his particular case. I think he has the ambition to come back. And clearly, he's going to remain a dangerous, in my opinion, a very disruptive force inside the Conservative Party. If they lose the election next year, which is not unlikely, mildly speaking, there might be a civil war and Boris Johnson might be one of the leaders of that particular civil war inside the Conservative Party. But remains to be seen.
What's the legacy, political and otherwise, of Silvio Berlusconi?
Well, to be on the positive side, he created a media empire. He did some reforms of the Italian political system after the scandals that sort of ripped apart the old political system in the past, but apart from that and in spite of the fact that he is now, sort of, given a state funeral and everyone is parading for him, that happens in situations like this, I think his legacy is mostly negative on the populist, who in three terms of government did very, very little to address the fundamental problems of the Italian economy, in the Italian state. A populist man who maneuvered, a man who had self-interest at the center of most things. But I think history will not judge him too kind.
World leaders with rhythm: South Korea's President Yoon chimes in
It was not, in fact, the day the music died.
The internet enjoyed a surprise moment when South Korea's President Yoon busted into song - specifically, American Pie - at a White House state dinner.
He's not the only world leader with rhythm. Watch our quick video compilation to remember some memorable tunes produced by heads of state.
For more entertainment from world leaders, revisit examples of world leaders dancing on camera.
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Hard truths on climate, education & poverty, from the UN’s Secretary-General
(Portions of this full interview have also been shown as part of the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer episode, "How A War-Distracted World Staves Off Irreversible Damage," available to view here.
Global political division, a culture of impunity and a vacuum of consequences ... Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine making climate change a “kind of second-order issue” (even as 50 million Pakistanis have been displaced by flooding, and more than 1,000 killed) - with "irreversible consequences" and "irreparable damage" coming "very soon" - "a world that is facing destruction everywhere" ... the threat that the world may not have enough food in 2023 due to fertilizer shortages ... there's a lot of bad news in the world, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres discusses with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.
Still, there are paths to solutions - as with the grain deal that Guterres helped to (discreetly) broker between Russia and Ukraine - if only the world's leaders will work together.
War in Ukraine looms large as world leaders meet at the United Nations
War in Ukraine looms large as world leaders meet at the United Nations
World leaders are gathering this week in sunny New York City for the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly, after more than two years of limited in-person attendance due to pandemic restrictions.
The mood is sure to be gloomy. From the war in Ukraine to growing food insecurity, the global energy crisis, and the devastating impacts of climate change, there is no shortage of problems to discuss.
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“The General Assembly is meeting at a time of great peril,” my dear friend António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, said last week. “Our world is blighted by war, battered by climate chaos, scarred by hate, and shamed by poverty, hunger, and inequality.”
Tensions are running especially high this year, as geopolitical rifts between the United States and its allies on one side, and Russia, China, and most developing nations on the other, are hardening on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war and its knock-on effects. These growing divides “are paralyzing the global response to the dramatic challenges we face,” Guterres said.
The war in Ukraine is slated to dominate the discussions, but the meeting is unlikely to yield any progress toward ending the conflict. After their successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainians believe they can achieve a decisive win on the battlefield and are unlikely to negotiate until they have captured significantly more territory. The Russians, meanwhile, will be hard-pressed to accept negotiations from such a position of weakness. Even Guterres, who like me can be a hopeless optimist, acknowledges that “the chances of a peace deal are minimal.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the General Assembly via a pre-recorded video—an exception granted exclusively to him—while Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is attending in person. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the proverbial elephant in the room, is staying home, instead sending a delegation headed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov—a wise decision in light of the lukewarm reception Putin got at the presumptively much friendlier Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan last week.
Top of the agenda at UNGA is also the global food crisisfueled by the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change and aggravated by Russia’s invasion. In an interview for GZERO World, Guterres told me that unless the deal to get Ukrainian grain shipments out brokered by himself and Turkey is extended to include Russian fertilizer—a key input for global food production—the world could well run out of food next year. At the moment there are no signs that progress on this front could be at hand.
That progress has been interrupted by a perfect storm of crises, and there’s an absence of leadership on the global stage to respond because most countries are understandably focused first and foremost on the demands of their (increasingly angry) populations at home.
Nothing that happens this week in New York is likely to change that.
🔔 And if you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe to my free newsletter, GZERO Daily by Ian Bremmer, to get new posts delivered to your inbox.
How a war-distracted world staves off irreversible damage
The UN's blueprint for making the world a better place is on life support. The pandemic wiped out years of progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, and right now there's no way they'll be met by 2030.
Secretary-General António Guterres has a message for world leaders converging in New York for the annual UN General Assembly: We need to rescue the SDGs.
But Guterres (and the international community) still has a lot more on their plate. On GZERO World, he warns that we may run out of food next year if the deal to get Ukrainian grain shipments out is not extended to Russian fertilizer.
Still, the UN chief laments that we got here because Russia invaded with impunity — and he worries that'll embolden more countries to become more aggressive amid a deeply divided geopolitical environment.
Also, what happened to the idea that the world was about to fall off the climate cliff? Guterres has some new thoughts on this too.
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