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Now + Then: The Miracle on the Marne
NOW: Ukraine and Russia are locked in a bloody, frustrating trench war, stalemated for years after the attempt to blitz through to Kyiv during Russia’s initial invasion was thrown back by the sacrifice of thousands of Ukrainian troops.
THEN: On this day 110 years ago, French and British forces along the Marne River were suffering through arguably the most important battle of World War I – an early clash that saved Paris and broke the German war plan but also ushered in the horrors of trench warfare.
The Great Retreat: The war began with disaster for the Anglo-French Entente. The aggressive French pre-war plan to strike into the heavily fortified German positions along their frontier had shattered against the macabre realities of industrialized warfare. Nearly 330,000 French soldiers were killed or wounded between Aug. 6 and Sept. 5 as the Germans rebuffed the strike and swept across Belgium and Luxembourg (the infamous Schlieffen Plan). They bottled up the tiny Belgian army before slamming into the small British Expeditionary Force at Mons, who fought hard but were forced to retreat because the French collapse left their flank unguarded.
The 1st and 2nd German armies then marched headlong toward Paris, and the French government departed for Bordeaux, expecting a prolonged siege. But the ferocity of the German advance concealed serious vulnerabilities: they were outpacing their supplies and their lines of communication were breaking just as generals were shifting plans on the ground. So severe was the dysfunction that Germany's top general, the infamously neurotic Helmuth von Moltke, issued no orders to the fighting armies during the six days of battle that began on Sept. 6.
Keep calm and fight on: Meanwhile, French Commander-in-Chief Joseph Joffre’s oft-noted cool head saved the day. He rapidly saw the futility of the pre-war plans and regrouped, pulling units from the east to defend the capital and relying on the extensive French train network. He appointed an old mentor, Gen. Joseph Gallieni, military governor of Paris, and Gallieni spotted a crucial mistake on the German side.
Rather than encircling Paris from the west, which might have prevented French forces from checking them in time, the Germans moved to positions to the northeast along the Marne. On Sept. 6, the French 5th army, which had been in retreat, turned and counterattacked across the river east of Paris, reinforced by the fresh 9th Army. Simultaneously, Gallieni’s newly formed 6th Army struck from Paris itself, even using Parisian taxicabs to ferry some 3,000 men to the front in the earliest known use of automobiles in warfare.
Mind the gap: Attacked on two sides, the German commanders scrambled to respond. The 1st and 2nd Armies gradually began pulling apart, allowing a 30-mile wide gap to form between their forces — a gap into which the British Expeditionary Force began pouring its battalions. By Sept. 9, German Gen. Karl von Bülow realized he was no longer in a position to end the war by taking Paris — and so ordered a retreat north to the Aisne River.
Dig in: At the Aisne, the Germans put to use one tiny advantage that would come to define the whole war: spades to dig trenches. German soldiers carried them; British and French troops did not. But by Sept. 17, the Entente were digging their own trenches, and over the course of the next month, the network would grow to stretch from the Swiss Alps to the Flemish coast.
Over 4.5 million soldiers and civilians lost their lives on the Western Front during the course of the next four years, and we live with the consequences — from the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel to European unity and American hegemony — to this day.Hump Day Recommendations, Feb. 7, 2024
Watch: “How the First World War Created the Middle East Conflicts.” This short documentary from YouTube’s preeminent World War I history producers over at The Great War takes us back to the waning days of the Ottoman Empire to find out just how the Middle East ended up in such a state. When the great powers sought to finish off the “Sick Man of Europe” once and for all, they found the Turks still had plenty of fight left in them. So the British, French, and Russians switched tactics, exploiting the grievances of ethnic minorities to rise against their Turkish overlords. But when the dust settled, the Europeans betrayed their Middle Eastern allies. – Matt
Read: The graphic novel “My Begging Chart,”by Keiler Roberts. It captures all the tiny micro-moments in everyday life that kind of just slip through the cracks in a surreal, darkly funny way. – Riley
Escape: into the night. Freedom’s just another word for Flaco on the loose. A Eurasian Eagle Owl mysteriously jailbroken from its cage at the Central Park Zoo now swoops among Manhattan’s highrises, dodging cops, alighting for magical moments on apartment windowsills, and feasting to his heart’s content on the city’s ample rat population. In the city that never sleeps, Flaco, as he’s known, owns the night sky. But is he lonely? Is he in danger? Is there a little Flaco in all of us? This New York Times profile of Gotham’s latest antihero is a high-flying journey of its own. – AlexUN chief: We must avoid the mistakes that led to World War I
Winston Churchill once said: "Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Those words ring as true today as they did in 1948. Churchill, who served in the First World War before he led Britain through the Second, knew all too well the miscalculations that presidents and prime ministers made leading up to the Great War.
A century later, the UN's top diplomat, Secretary-General António Guterres, fears that world leaders today are making the same mistakes that got us into WWI. In an exclusive interview for GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Guterres explains what makes him so wary of this moment in geopolitics.
"We really need stronger and reformed multilateral institutions to be able to coordinate on what is becoming a multipolar world," Guterres tells Bremmer. "I would remind you that Europe, before the First World War, was multipolar. But because there was no multilateral governance institutions at the European level, the result was the First World War."
Watch the full GZERO World interview: UN Chief on mounting global crises: "Hope never dies"
Watch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld and on US public television. Check local listings.
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EXCLUSIVE: Biden administration to officially acknowledge Armenian genocide
EXCLUSIVE: White House sources tell Ian Bremmer the Biden administration will recognize Armenian genocide - the first US president to recognize genocide by the Ottoman Empire during World War 1. Ian explains in this Quick Take:
Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here, kicking off the week. Gorgeous outside, it is spring, and I thought we'd focus today on some breaking news out of the United States on Turkey. Those of you following Turkey, know it's been a tough couple of weeks, couple of months, year for President Erdogan. A lot of things going wrong for Turkey right now. They just pulled their country out of the Istanbul Conventions, European agreement that meant to protect women. And he also just sacked his new central bank governor. That's four central bank governors in two years. The economy is not doing well. The Turkish lira is getting crushed, his domestic popularity not going well. And as a consequence, he's cracking down on the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party, the HDP. In fact, they're making a legal effort to just close it down right now, the second biggest opposition party in the country and a bunch of other stuff.
But the big news, is that Erdogan is about to face another diplomatic challenge, which is from the United States. As I've heard from the White House, that President Biden is going to recognize the 1915 killing of Armenians under the Ottomans' rule as a genocide.
Now, this perhaps shouldn't come as a huge surprise. First of all, it happened a long time ago and the French already did some 20 years ago, the Canadians recognized it too, and Biden promised during his campaign that he would make the move if elected. Vice President Kamala Harris, by the way, from California, where there's a large constituency in favor of that, she was actually co-sponsor of the Senate resolution for recognition back in 2019. And with Tony Blinken now as secretary of state, human rights is clearly much higher on Biden's foreign policy agenda than it was under Obama, or obviously than it was under Trump.
To be fair, all of this comes on the back of President Obama, who also said when he was running for office, that he would pledge to recognize the Armenian genocide and then he didn't do it. And indeed, the former advisors to Obama, like the old UN ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, the former deputy of national security advisor, who is Ben Rhodes, had both publicly said, they apologized for it, they said it was a mistake, that they were offering too much to Erdogan, they didn't want to offend or upset him. First of all, Biden aware of all of this when he makes his own pledge, and Samantha Powers, going to be working in the Biden administration, she's already been nominated to run USAID, but Biden clearly does not care as much about alienating the Turkish government. In fact, he hasn't even scheduled a call yet with Erdogan. We're a couple months in right now, despite repeated requests.
And the mood is getting worse. I've actually heard in the last couple of days from both White House and State Department officials, that Biden was incensed when the Turkish president publicly called Biden's comments about Putin, responding to George Stephanopoulos last week about whether he was a killer or not, Erdogan, NATO ally of the United States, said that it was unacceptable for Biden to say that about Erdogan's friend, Vladimir Putin. Then last week, in response to a bipartisan letter from some 38 senators, and it's hard to get bipartisan groups of senators to do anything these days, calling on Biden to recognize the genocide, the White House moved further. They said, "The administration is committed to promoting respect for human rights and ensuring such atrocities are not repeated." And critically, concluding with, "A critical part of that is acknowledging history." And that is code in Biden-land for recognition of the genocide.
Voided front running an announcement because this week Secretary Blinken is going to a NATO ministerial in Europe, it's face-to-face that will include his Turkish counterpart and clearly, they don't want to blow it up right before then. But it's obviously signaling the intention and when asked whether the statement confirmed the genocide recognition would indeed go ahead, a White House advisor told me, "That's what he pledged as a candidate, and that's the policy going forward." I've also heard from a second White House official ask specifically about an impending announcement on April 24th, which is coming up soon, and is the genocide remembrance day, said that, "Biden is a man of his word." So, it's seeming pretty clear at this point. He would be the first American president to do so, that's a big deal. Erdogan will clearly be incensed in response to that. But at this point, he's got a pretty limited domestic constituency in the United States.
The defense companies are probably the strongest, but much less so after Turkey decided to go ahead and buy this S-400 missile defense system from the Russians, even as an American ally. In any case, Biden has shown much less concern about that kind of backlash, given his willingness to put human rights first and foremost, in the relationship with Saudi Arabia, for example, which is by far the most important arms purchaser from the United States in the world. There's no question that a genocide recognition will make it much harder for a reset of US/Turkey relations, but I don't really expect it. And Ankara is going to feel a lot more isolated, but they're under massive economic pressure right now, too.
I would say really what this is all about is a broader pivot of the United States from the Middle East, wanting to end the forever wars, not consider the broader Middle East as important to US national security. Clearly focusing a lot more in Asia, on the quad, on challenging relations with China. And all of that makes Biden's own regional decision-making a lot less constrained than historical presidents have been.
So pretty big news, quite something, I'm looking forward to what the Biden administration is going to be saying on the record on all of this but delighted to bring it to you. Anyway, that's it for me, I hope you're all safe and avoiding fewer people. We are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, be good.
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