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Xi arriving at APEC
Trump’s tariff shadow looms over APEC summit
At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, Peru, this week, the specter of Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs is looming large over the proceedings.
Trump, who believes import duties are a way to gain leverage over adversaries while spurring domestic manufacturing, has threatened tariffs as high as 60% against China and universal 10%-20% tariffs for other US trade partners. He has also appointed a series of China hawks to his Cabinet.
China is preparing aggressive countermeasures, including using an “anti-foreign sanctions law,” which allows Beijing to match measures taken by other countries and to place US companies on an “unreliable entity list” for foreign companies that have national interests. It is also expected to implement export controls on resources like rare earth minerals and lithium, which are critical components in modern technologies.
Joe Biden will attend the summit on Friday and Saturday, and his message of America’s desire to cooperate on trade, climate change, and poverty is likely to fall on deaf ears as members prepare for Trump 2.o. On Saturday, Biden — who kept most of Trump’s China tariffs in place and is expected to further tighten semiconductor restrictions before leaving office — will meet with President Xi Jinping. But with just a few weeks left of his presidency, expectations are low that much will come from the meeting.
“The reality is that Biden and Xi made meaningful progress in at least stabilizing the decline in the bilateral relationship, if not improving it,” says Eurasia Group’s China director, Lauren Gloudeman. “But the biggest initial risk once Trump takes office is that all of those channels that were restored for bilateral communication under Biden will most likely be frozen as soon as the new administration comes in.”
We will also be watching to see if Biden meets with Taiwan’s representative on the sidelines. Taiwan’s fate is uncertain under Trump, and Gloudeman says it’s unclear “whether he’s going to seek to pressure Taiwan to increase its own defense spending, or whether he sees Taiwan as almost a bargaining chip in some kind of broader negotiations with China.”
FILE PHOTO: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping walk during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023.
Putin visits his pal in Beijing
The message is clear: Russia and China stand together, and recent pressure on Beijing to rethink the partnership hasn’t worked. Not that anyone believed US and EU requests to limit the export of goods Russia might use in Ukraine went anywhere but the circular file.
Peek under the hood of the Putin-Xi partnership, however, and you’ll see the gears could use some grease. For instance, Putin would like Xi to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would help him deal with Western sanctions. Xi has historically been less enthusiastic about the project (he’s already getting Russian gas at a steep discount, after all).
There’s also North Korea, which has grown considerably closer to Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine. China isn’t thrilled to see Russia butting in on what it considers its sphere of influence but has taken a soft approach thus far. In January, Putin accepted an invitation from Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to visit, and we’re watching for a stop in Pyongyang, which would likely tweak Xi. Even if it doesn’t happen this time around, Eurasia Group analyst Jeremy Chan says “it's highly likely that Putin will visit North Korea by the end of 2024.”
China's President Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan disembark at Orly Airport, south of Paris, on May 5, 2024.
Xi goes on (short) European tour
This week marks President Xi Jinping’s first trip to Europe in five years. The Chinese leader will only visit France, Serbia, and Hungary – three countries where he’s likely to find the friendliest ears – and meet with EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade tensions and China’s support for Russia in its war with Ukraine.
Xi, who landed in Paris on Sunday, will also have a tete-a-tete with Emanuel Macron for the second time in as many years. You’ll remember that the French president raised continental eyebrows last year with a state visit to Beijing, where he declared that Europe should not be drawn into a standoff between China and the US over Taiwan. Macron’s independent foreign policy approach left a positive impression on Beijing.
This time, the French leader is looking beyond tensions in the Taiwan Strait. He told The Economist that it’s “in our interest to get China to weigh in on the stability of the international order.” Xi seemed to agree, issuing a statement that Sino-French relations “have established a model for the international community of peaceful coexistence.”
The two will discuss trade and security, with France wanting increased access to the Chinese market for its agricultural exports and protection for intellectual property rights for the French cosmetic industry. Macron will reiterate that China should stop exporting dual-use goods that power Russia’s war in Ukraine.
But we’re not holding our breath for any positive signals on that since the Chinese leader will then visit Hungary and Serbia, two countries with close ties to Russia. Xi’s visit to Serbia will focus on deepening trade relations – and it happens to coincide with the 25th anniversary week of NATO’s fatal bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. In Hungary, Xi wants to cement his relationship with autocratic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has stymied EU efforts to hold China to account on human rights issues.
Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine
David Sanger, Pulitzer prize-winning New York Times journalist and author of "New Cold Wars," discusses the evolving relationship between China and Russia, highlighting its asymmetry and significance in today's geopolitical landscape. He points out how much the tables have turned. During the Cold War of the 20th Century, the Soviet Union was the dominant power when it came to its relationship with China. Decades later, it's clear that China holds the upper hand. "China holds more cards than the Russians do," Sanger tells Ian Bremmer. Not only that, Russia's Vladimir Putin needs China's Xi Jinping by his side in order to prevail in his war with Ukraine. "He [Putin] needs that Chinese technology desperately... He does not have a choice except to deal with the Chinese on Chinese terms right now."
And what does that mean for China's interests when it comes to the United States? "If you're Xi," Sanger says, "the two best things that can happen to you is that the US is tied up in Ukraine or ripping itself apart about the aid and consumed again in the Middle East." And at least in that respect, Xi seems to be getting everything he wants.
Watch Ian Bremmer's full interview with David Sanger on GZERO World - Are we on the brink of a new cold war?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
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Are we on the brink of a new cold war?
“We are back in a period of superpower competition that will probably go on for decades. And that, if we're lucky, remains a cold war.” David Sanger, a Pulitzer prize-winning national security correspondent for The New York Times, joins Ian Bremmer on a new episode of GZERO World to offer a clear-eyed take on America’s adversaries. He’s out with a new book called "New Cold Wars: China's Rise, Russia's Invasion, and America's Struggle to Defend the West." The takeaway: we’re entering a new and increasingly unstable era of geopolitics where the US, China, and Russia will be vying for power and influence like never before. China's rise as a world leader and economic powerhouse, along with Russia's nuclear saber-rattling and increasing military cooperation, poses an unprecedented challenge to US dominance.
But unlike the Cold War that dominated the 20th century, where the US and the Soviet Union could operate essentially independently from each other, the world today is far more connected. "It's a cold war that bears almost no resemblance to the one that you and I are old enough to remember, because in that Cold War, we had a single competitor, and we weren't dependent on them, nor they on us for very much."
Sanger also talks about America’s missed opportunities and misjudgments in dealing with Russia and China. There were early hopes of engagement with Russia under Yeltsin's presidency, which quickly eroded when Putin came to power. Similarly, there was a belief that integrating China into the global economy would lead to political reform. However, this bet did not play out as expected, with the Communist Party using digital forces for explicit repression techniques. "It became pretty evident, pretty clearly that the Communist party had learned how to take these same digital forces and use them for the most explicitly designed repression techniques we have ever seen.”
But one area where both Russia and China have a shared interest? Pitting Americans against each other. “They have every incentive, both Russia and China, to be subtle actors in the background of this coming presidential election,” Sanger tells Bremmer. “And that's one area where if they are not cooperating, it would pay them off considerably to coordinate.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
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The next era of global superpower competition: a conversation with the New York Times' David Sanger
Listen: In 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at a summit and described their “friendship without limits.” But how close is that friendship, really? Should the US be worried about their growing military and economic cooperation? On the GZERO World Podcast, Ian Bremmer sits down with Pulitzer prize-winning national security correspondent for The New York Times David Sanger to talk about China, Russia, the US, and the 21st-century struggle for global dominance. Sanger’s newest book, “New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West,” looks at the new and increasingly unstable era of geopolitics where the US, China, and Russia are vying for power and influence like never before. Bremmer and Sanger discuss the US intelligence failures that led to the current geopolitical reality, what the US needs to do to combat the growing cooperation between our two biggest adversaries, and why semiconductor factories are more important to national security than aircraft carriers.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin-Xi “friendship” threatens Arctic
A new report quoted in the Globe and Mail suggests how Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping’s “friendship without limits” is progressing: Russia is giving very generously in exchange for China buying its oil.
The report by Strider Technologies says China is gaining a major foothold in the Arctic as Russia shifts its defense priorities to the war in Ukraine. Since Putin’s invasion, 234 Chinese-owned companies have registered to operate in the Russian-controlled Arctic, Strider said, an 87% increase on the two years prior. Besides resource exploitation and investment aimed at developing Russia’s Northern Sea shipping route, the two have been deepening security ties in the form of joint exercises in the Bering Sea.
A report by Canada’s Senate Committee on national security, defense, and veterans’ affairs last year noted the worrying implications of increased collaboration in the Arctic by Russia and China.
Canada has committed to spending $38.6 billion over 20 years to modernizing the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or NORAD, including investing in new over-the-horizon radar installations, and infrastructure to house the 88 F-35 Lightning fighter jets it has on order from the US.
In the first of its 23 recommendations, the committee called on the government to include an Arctic section in its imminent defense policy statement that recognizes the situation in the North is deteriorating and offers a plan to deal “on an expeditious basis” with threats that could enter North America through the Arctic.
FILE PHOTO: Donald Trump dancing during the campaign rally for the Republican primary for the 2024 American presidential election. Manchester (NH), USA, January 20, 2024.
For China, Russia, and Israel, patience is a virtue in 2024
In January, Taiwan elected pro-independence candidate William Lai and, despite warnings, China’s response has been restrained, possibly influenced by Beijing’s belief that the leading US presidential candidate may treat Taiwan like a “discarded chess piece.”
That’s what Chinese Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said would happen if Donald Trump won the US election in November after the former president refused to say whether he would defend Taiwan. His comments shook US ally Japan strongly enough that senior Kishida administration officials are reportedly contacting Trump’s camp to warn against cutting any kind of deal with China.
The view from China: The prospect of a friendlier – or at least more transactional – US administration might be good news for cross-strait relations in the short term. There's no point in rocking the boat in a way that might hurt either Trump’s prospects or what trust Beijing has built with the Biden administration over the last year (Joe Biden, after all, could win too).
Beijing isn’t alone in recognizing that a little patience could pay big dividends after November. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday, Israeli far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir said Israel would have carte blanche under Trump 2.0.
“Instead of giving us his full backing, Biden is busy with humanitarian aid and fuel, which goes to Hamas,” he said. “If Trump [were] in power, the US conduct would be completely different.”
The view from the Kremlin is just as rosy. Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has been arguing for months that Vladimir Putin is waiting for Trump to be re-elected to sue for peace in Ukraine because of how destabilizing another dose of Trump will be to NATO. Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daaldermade a similar argument last week. And Trump did tell European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, “By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO” in 2020.
GZERO also has its eye on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He and Trump left it in a bad place after their whirlwind romance in 2018 … but who knows what another love letter might spark?