Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Fire burns as people attend a demonstration after Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed the defense minister, Tel Aviv, Israel, March 27, 2023.
Netanyahu’s climbdown
After civil unrest swept Israel in recent days, PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu announced Monday night that he would suspend the divisive judicial overhaul that, among other things, would allow the government to almost exclusively select judges.
Twelve weeks of unprecedented protests and strikes brought the country to its knees and caused Bibi to freeze the legislation until after the Passover break in May. But he stopped short of acknowledging how his actions — including firing the defense minister who criticized the judicial overhaul — have fueled the current unrest.
Instead, the PM blamed far-left agitators and the media for backing the protesters, while members of Bibi’s far-right coalition government called on their supporters to counter anti-government protesters in Jerusalem.
Though the mass strike has been called off for now, many protesters say they won’t be placated until the judicial overhaul is off the agenda entirely. For their part, opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz said they were willing to meet with the government to try and forge a path forward but noted that they had doubts about trusting the PM and needed to proceed with caution.
Despite the fact that far-right coalition partners are keen to see the reforms passed, they reluctantly signed off on the pause. Leaders of the Religious Zionism Party said that though the PM’s move was a “mistake,” they will continue to back him. But for how long?
Fresh polls released Monday night show that Bibi’s Likud Party would see its number of seats in the Knesset (parliament) plummet from 31 to 25 if elections were held today.Emergency workers extinguish fire in vehicles at the site of a Russian missile strike, amid Russia?s attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine March 9, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Russian air strikes, South African economic squeeze, day of resistance in Israel
Russia pummels Ukraine
On Thursday, Russia launched a wave of early-morning air strikes with missiles and Iranian-made drones on Ukrainian cities, its worst attack targeting civilians in a month. At least six people died, and almost half of Kyiv residents were left without electricity. Meanwhile, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — Europe's largest — was knocked offlinefor the sixth time and is now operating on diesel power. It's unclear why Moscow did this or has waited so long, but perhaps the Russians are running so low on weapons and ammo that it's much harder to carry out coordinated attacks. For their part, Ukrainians living in urban areas have become so accustomed to the barrages that they are hardly intimidated, which is the whole point for Vladimir Putin. On the battlefield, Russia is still struggling to conquer Bakhmut, a key town in eastern Ukraine, amid an ongoing rift between the Russian military and top mercenary warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin.
South Africa’s shrinking economy
Things are going from bad to worse in South Africa. Amid a deepening energy crisis that’s plunged parts of Africa’s most industrialized nation into darkness for up to 15 hours a day, new figures show that the country’s economy contracted by 1.3% in the last quarter of 2022. (Analysts had anticipated a 0.4% squeeze). In a bid to address the deep-rooted energy crisis, President Cyril Ramaphosa this week tapped a new electricity minister, but members of the business community don’t appear to have been placated as fear remains high that Pretoria could be headed for a recession. For context on how corruption-plagued Eskom – the state-owned energy company that runs 90% of the country’s electricity – reached breaking point, and what effect this is having on South Africa’s economy, see this explainer. Crucially, South Africa's economy is just marginally bigger than it was four years ago (0.3%), but the population has grown by 3.5% since then, increasing pressure on ailing infrastructure.
Israel faces ‘day of resistance’
Israelis are preparing for a “day of resistance” on Thursday as part of ongoing protests against the Netanyahu government's planned judicial overhaul. Protests are planned across the country, including a flotilla led by naval reservists that will sail off the coast of Haifa in northern Israel. In Tel Aviv, meanwhile, activists are seeking to block access to the international airport in order to disrupt PM Netanyahu’s planned visit to Rome, where he’s set to meet with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has also been forced to cut short his trip to Israel, as authorities could not secure a route for him to the defense ministry in Tel Aviv. Protest leaders also promised “many surprises,” while the tech industry – which accounts for more than half of all of Israel's exports – will also hold mass walkouts. In a bid to lower the temperature after months of demonstrations, the government on Wednesday unveiled a slightly dialed-back judicial reform plan, but opposition leader Yair Lapid – and most of the Israeli public – aren’t buying it. Bibi insists his government will get judicial reform done before the legislature’s Passover break next month. But as the proposed legislation continues to impede Israel’s economic outlook, will he be forced to offer more concessions – and would his far-right coalition survive a walk-back?A sticker and a banner of election campaign, depicting former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other politicians, are seen in Tel Aviv.
Israel’s fifth election in under four years: Will anything change?
We’ve seen this movie before: An ill-suited coalition government collapses, electioneering kicks off, and Israelis drag their feet to the polls.
On Tuesday, Israelis vote to elect a new government for the fifth time since April 2019. Former longtime Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu is looking to make a comeback nearly 18 months after he was relegated to opposition status. Accustomed to the trappings of PM life, Bibi has made no secret of the fact that he despises the indignity of playing second fiddle and desperately wants his old gig back.
As Israel votes yet again, what’s changed, what’s stayed the same, and what are the likely outcome(s) of round five?
First, how’d we get here? It was a very big deal in June 2021 when a “change government” was sworn in, ending Bibi’s 12-year reign. The man responsible for cobbling together the politically diverse coalition was Yair Lapid, a former journalist whose Yesh Atid Party (There is a Future) entered the political fray in 2013.
The bloc formed by Lapid, who is currently serving as caretaker PM, included a ragtag grouping of eight political parties (notably including an Arab Islamist party) that was united by nothing more than animus toward Bibi and ultimately collapsed this past summer.
What’s still the same? Bibi’s edge.
Facing criminal proceedings for alleged breach of trust and corruption, Bibi, who at 73 remains an indefatigable campaigner, has continued to agitate from the opposition rather than step aside and avoid dragging the country through an ugly political slugfest.
Despite his legal woes – or perhaps because of them – Bibi’s right-wing Likud Party remains Israel’s biggest. Again, Likud is slated to win the most of any party, with polls projecting it’ll reap around 30-31 out of 120 seats. Lapid is polling second with around 24-27 seats. This means Bibi will likely get the first shot at trying to convince other parties to join his coalition – a painstaking task in an environment where loyalty is a scarce commodity.
What’s changed? A united extreme right.
This time, Netanyahu successfully managed to broker the Religious Zionism alliance, which saw three far-right parties run on a single ticket so as not to split the right-wing vote. For Bibi, the bloc is a natural coalition partner that can help him get to 61 seats.
And that strategy has paid off, with Religious Zionism – an extremist bunch espousing anti-LGBTQ and anti-Arab views – expected to win around 14 seats, which would make it the third largest group in parliament. That’s no small feat considering that 40 political parties are vying for votes.
The success of this far-right grouping is in part due to the star power of a man you’ve likely never heard of: Itamar Ben-Gvir, 46, is an admirer of Meir Kahane, a radical anti-Arab ideologue who was banned from Israeli politics before being assassinated in 1990.
A religious Jew, Ben-Gvir has managed to attract secular voters with right-wing proclivities, as well as more moderate right-wing voters, by advocating a relaxation of military rules of engagement linked to the use of live fire and calling for immunity for frontline soldiers. In a country with mandatory conscription laws and a majority right-leaning electorate, this pro-military stance has proven fruitful for Ben-Gvir, who was notably banned from military service as a youth because of his extremist views.
The dissipating Israeli Arab vote. PM Lapid managed to form a diverse change government in June 2021 in large part because of the Arab Israeli vote, which brought the Islamist Ra’am Party into government for the first time.
But many Arab-Israeli voters remain frustrated by soaring crime and poverty rates in their hometowns – 70% of violent deaths in Israel this year have been in Arab communities – in addition to the ongoing occupation and broader stalemate of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Indeed, many feel that representation failed them and are vowing to sit this vote out.
What might another Bibi-led government look like? Netanyahu, backed by Religious Zionism, has vowed to limit the independence of the judiciary so that the High Court cannot overrule government decision-making (the court currently has the power to rule whether government law violates one of the state’s 13 constitutional laws). Ben-Gvir also says he wants to pass a law banning corruption probes of serving PMs, and that the law should be implemented retroactively, essentially letting Bibi off (though others say they wouldn’t support such a move).
Internationally, Bibi has sworn to rip up the newly signed maritime deal with Lebanon, though many have dismissed this as pre-election grandstanding. On Iran and Russia policy, meanwhile, there’s likely to be little daylight between Netanyahu and the current Lapid government.
The other plausible option is …. stalemate. If Netanyahu can’t secure a 61-seat majority, then Israel will hold a sixth election in the spring. Meanwhile, partisanship and ugly social cleavages will continue to deepen, and many social and economic problems will remain largely ignored.
Sri Lankans celebrate the resignation President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Colombo.
What We're Watching: Sri Lanka swears in new leader, Bolsonaro spends big, Biden to kiss the ring
Sri Lanka has a new acting president
Gotabaya Rajapaksa finally resigned — by email — on Thursday as president of Sri Lanka, a country rocked by months-long mass protests, economic collapse, and political turmoil over his rule. He fled the country on Tuesday, likely to avoid arrest, and is now in Singapore, but Rajapaksa’s final destination remains unclear. Ranil Wickremesinghe, the sitting PM Rajapaksa appointed interim president before getting out of Dodge, was sworn in as acting president on Friday. Wickremesinghe’s ability to govern, however briefly, is uncertain given that protesters also want him out. Parliament’s process for selecting the new leader now begins, with a vote coming as early as next week. MPs will have to come up with an alternative candidate to serve out the remainder of Rajapaksa's term until 2025, or hold a snap election. Whoever becomes president will then have to pick a prime minister to lead a government that'll need to pass tough economic reforms to secure an IMF bailout, the only way Sri Lanka can salvage its ruined economy. Demonstrators ignored a new curfew to publicly celebrate Rajapaksa’s resignation overnight, and all eyes are on what happens next on the streets of Colombo.
A Bolsonaro bonus?
Brazil’s embattled far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is hoping that a massive new social spending package will boost his chances of being re-elected this fall. The country’s lower house this week approved a bill that would increase welfare payments by 50% and give special bonuses to certain workers, in particular self-employed truckers and taxi drivers. To pass the bill, lawmakers had to scrap a constitutional limit on government spending. Supporters of the bill say it’s necessary to help ordinary Brazilians cope with an inflation rate currently hovering around 12%. Critics say spending this much money will only worsen inflation, and that it’s merely a political ploy to help Bolsonaro, whose polling numbers badly trail those of his archnemesis, leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The first round of the election will be held on Oct. 2.
Biden enters the kingdom
On day two of his Middle East trip, US President Joe Biden on Thursday signed a pact with Israeli PM Yair Lapid in which the US and Israel pledge to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But each party has their own idea of how to do that. Washington is still holding out (fast fading) hopes of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, while the Israelis, skeptical of a deal, have always placed greater faith in a military deterrent. On Friday, Biden visits Palestinian Authority chief Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank. The meeting revives US-PA ties that the Trump administration had broken off, but Biden isn’t expected to unveil any fresh vision for Middle East peace. All eyes are really now on Biden’s onward journey to Saudi Arabia, where he’ll spend two days meeting with Gulf leaders including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Biden will look to secure more Gulf oil production to bring down crude prices as well as broader Arab-Israeli cooperation against Iran. One little question with big optics: will Biden shake the hand of MBS, the man he once pledged to make into a “pariah”? Biden’s team says COVID protocols prevent him from doing so, but that hasn’t stopped him from pressing the flesh in Israel …What We’re Watching: Contentious SCOTUS decisions, Russia's Snake Island retreat, Israel’s new PM, G7's topless fantasies
SCOTUS hands Biden a win and a loss
The US Supreme Court on Thursday handed down decisions in two closely watched cases. First, the court ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency can’t enforce rules limiting carbon emissions at existing power plants. The six conservative justices who backed the majority opinion said only Congress should regulate climate policy. The long-running case – which made its way through the courts during the Obama, Trump, and Biden presidencies – is emblematic of the broader fight between coal-loving Republican states and Democrats pushing for more action on climate change. The decision will also complicate Biden’s pledge to switch the power grid to clean energy by 2035 – and to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Crucially, the US is the world’s second-largest carbon emitter after China. SCOTUS’s subsequent ruling, however, went in Biden’s favor: two conservative justices joined the court’s progressive wing to scrap the “Remain in Mexico” policy, a Trump-era immigration law requiring some migrants to wait in Mexico while their asylum claims are processed. Still, a federal judge has blocked Biden from lifting another Trump-era immigration restriction, so this ruling is unlikely to have a significant impact on the immigration landscape ahead of November’s midterms.
Kyiv scores as Russia flees Snake Island
On Thursday, Russia retreated from Snake Island, the Black Sea outcrop it invaded on the first day of its war against Ukraine. Russia claims it was a “gesture of goodwill” to prove it wasn’t blocking Ukraine's food exports, but Ukrainians say that’s a lie and that their missile strikes drove the Russians out. Prior to the war, Ukraine exported five million metric tons of grain per month, and the blockade has caused global food prices to soar, and created fear of famine in some African countries. Zmiinyi Island — as it is known in Ukraine — is 22 miles off the coast of Ukraine and offers several strategic advantages. While hard to defend, the island in Russian hands had crippled Kyiv’s ability to defend the entire southwestern coast of the country, including its largest port, Odesa. Russia was also using it to support a naval blockade and to control crucial shipping lanes in the Black Sea. While clearly a win for Ukraine – and a much-needed morale boost – it doesn’t change the Kremlin’s focus on claiming the Donbas region in southeastern Ukraine. And without a strong navy to defend it, Ukrainian ships will likely still be unable to resume movement of food exports in the Black Sea — at least for now.
What’s on the agenda for Israel’s new PM?
Israel again has a new prime minister after the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, voted to dissolve itself after a series of political crises. Yair Lapid, head of the centrist Yesh Atid Party, will serve as interim PM until elections on November 1 – the country’s fifth since 2019. Meanwhile, outgoing PM Naftali Bennett, who partnered with Lapid to form the unwieldy coalition that ousted longtime PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu in 2021, says he won’t run in the next election. At home, Lapid will mainly be focused on ensuring that right-wing parties in his coalition don’t jump ship to the opposition headed by Netanyahu. Such a move could return Bibi to power (he is 3-4 seats short of a parliamentary majority, according to polls). Lapid, meanwhile, hopes to bolster his image as an elder statesman. Next week, he heads to the Élysée to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron before hosting President Joe Biden in Israel. There are also rumors that the Saudis will sign onto the Abraham Accords when Biden tours the region next month. Indeed, a three-way handshake between Lapid, Biden, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would surely be a boon for the interim Israeli PM ahead of the nail-biter November polls.
What We’re Ignoring: Topless fantasies
We hate to say it, but it’s hard to disagree with Vladimir Putin on this one. Responding to G7 leaders’ jokes earlier this week about whether they should meet topless to mock the famously bare-chested Putin, the Russian president showed zero mercy: “above or below the waist,” he said, "it would be a disgusting sight.” Doubtless that’s true of Biden, to say nothing of the bloated and debauched Boris Johnson — but maybe we’d give Justin Trudeau a pass? Regardless, we believe the world would be a better place if all leaders kept their shirts on and their armies at home.Déjà vu in Israel: Another government crumbles
Political tumult is again the order of the day in Israel, where the fifth election cycle in three years is about to kick off. Crippled by dysfunction and tribalism, Israel has joined the ranks of countries like Italy and Greece, where general elections have been known to occur with infuriating frequency.
What sparked the latest government collapse, and how might Israel overcome this period of chronic stalemate?
Background. It was a very big deal last June when a new Israeli government was sworn in that was not headed by someone called Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who had held the top job for 12 years. The man responsible for cobbling together the politically diverse coalition was Yair Lapid, a 58-year-old former journalist who entered the political fray in 2013 and heads the centrist Yesh Atid (There Is a Future) Party.
By all accounts, the coalition government – headed for the past 12 months by rightwing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – was a remarkable success in that … it existed. The bloc included a ragtag grouping of eight political parties – notably including an Arab Islamist party – united by nothing more than animus towards Bibi.
That coalition, however, began to crumble in recent months after a couple of right-wing lawmakers defected, robbing the government of its majority. Also in recent weeks, left-wing and Arab coalition members refused to back key legislation, making it clear that the minority government’s days were numbered. According to the coalition agreement inked last summer, Lapid, currently serving as foreign minister, will take over as interim PM until the next coalition is formed after the October polls.
The Bibi of it all. Bibi has been dreaming of this day since he was relegated to opposition status last year, forced to give up the trappings of PM life. While his right-wing Likud Party and allies remain the biggest parliamentary bloc, early polls show that he still wouldn’t have the 61-seat majority needed to win back the top job if elections were held today.
A longtime politician, Bibi has in recent years burned bridges with several right-leaning parties and former Likud members who would appear to be his natural political allies. Still, the forever-politician will do everything in his power to change that over the next 12 weeks.
The Biden of it all. This latest turmoil comes just weeks before US President Joe Biden is set to visit Israel, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. While this throws a spanner in the works for the White House – which has been coordinating a very sensitive trip to the region with the Bennett-led government – for Lapid, the timing of the handover is perfect.
“Israelis are suckers for positive, warm attention, and visits from US presidents – no matter who the president is – are a huge deal,” says Neri Zilber, a Tel-Aviv based journalist and policy advisor at the Israel Policy Forum.
Biden’s upcoming visit “will be a major moment for Lapid to burnish his reputation, image, and standing as a real prime minister and a global statesman, especially among the Israeli public,” he adds. Indeed, many Israelis don’t see the former TV personality as having the grit or gravitas for the job.
Breaking the stalemate. The election outcome will in large part be decided by the ability of the current anti-Netanyahu bloc to again awkwardly hold hands and join forces. Prospects for such an alliance, however, are further complicated by the fact that several of these parties could fall short of the electoral threshold needed to sit in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
But even if the same or a similar anti-Bibi bloc manages to ink a deal, it would only be a bandaid.
Part of the problem, says Anshel Pfeffer, The Economist's Israel correspondent and a senior writer for Haaretz, is structural. “The system has a bit of inherent political instability in it,” he says, including the very low threshold (3.25%) for small parties to make it into parliament.
And then, of course, there’s Bibi, the Israeli right’s juggernaut, who has in recent years waged war on state institutions and exploited ideological differences within the Knesset – and society – partly to distract from his own legal woes.
“If Bibi were out of the equation, would the Israeli political system recalibrate itself?” Pfeffer asks himself. “I think there’s a chance that it would. But it is far from a given.”
“There are other issues that aren’t being talked about, like state vs. religion, inclusion of Arab citizens within the government, executive vs. judicial powers” that would surely persist in a post-Bibi era, Pfeffer adds. “There’s no question that Netanyahu is fueling these things. But it doesn't necessarily mean that once he’s gone that these issues will be less toxic.”
And there’s another crucial factor that could upend the cycle of stalemate that many analysts are focused on: the Arab-Israeli vote, which has long been ignored by the Israeli political establishment. But that has changed since the Bennett-Lapid coalition included Raam, an Arab-Israeli party, for the first time in history.
“The fact that the Israeli Arabs are now in play, at least they have been over the past year … is a huge structural game changer in Israeli politics,” says Zilber, noting that for decades this 20% of the citizenry “were considered out of bounds.”
Indeed, the structural advantage the Israeli right has enjoyed for decades is beginning to shift.
Israel's historic (and fractious) post-Bibi government
After four elections in two years, Israel is finally on the brink of forming a new government. But for the first time in 12 years it won't be headed by someone named Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu.
The new power-sharing coalition is likely to be one of the most ideologically-diverse in the country's history. How, after years of dysfunction and deadlock, did we get here, and how might this new government shape Israeli politics and policymaking?
Background. For weeks, Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party (There is a Future) has been trying to cobble together enough seats to form a coalition government that would end Prime Minister Netanyahu's long running grip on power.
That process has seen the emergence of a new kingmaker: Naftali Bennett of the rightwing Yamina party (New Right) whose seven Knesset seats Lapid needed in order to reach the 61 seat threshold required to form a government. In order to secure Netanyahu's defeat, Lapid agreed to let Bennett serve as prime minister, while he will head the foreign ministry. Come 2023, they will switch roles, according to the terms of the agreement.
The fractious coalition will now be a ragtag of eight political parties that span the ideological spectrum: it will likely include Raam, an Arab Islamist party focused on boosting funding to Arab-Israeli communities, as well as right and left wing factions. The only thing that truly unites these groups, though, is a desire to sideline Benjamin Netanyahu. Interestingly, some of these politicians, including Bennett, are former Bibi protégés who learnt the ropes from the politically-seasoned incumbent himself.
But so much for what they are all against — what are they for? Once in power, the prospective coalition will face a host of issues that could threaten its survival.
Reforming the judiciary. Netanyahu has long been accused of trying to erode trust in the judicial branch as part of an ongoing effort to scuttle the corruption case he's currently facing. The fact that currently the Attorney General, handpicked by the PM, both advises the government while also overseeing investigations (including the one into Netanyahu himself) has created concerns about a conflict of interest. Gideon Sa'ar, a Likud defector who is likely to head the incoming justice ministry, has been pushing hard for a law that would address this by splitting the Attorney General role in two. However, left-wing parties in the prospective government have reportedly voiced opposition to this reform, saying that politicians should leave the independent judiciary alone. Sa'ar will have to compromise.
Immigration. Tens of thousands of African migrants, mostly from Eritrea and Sudan, have entered Israel over the past decade, making immigration a hot button issue. Yamina's Ayelet Sheked, an anti-immigration hawk and close ally of Bennett, is likely to head the ministry of interior, giving her the immigration portfolio. Shaked, for her part, has previously tried to push the "law against infiltration" — a harsh bill aiming to discourage certain types of migration to Israel. Israel's supreme court has deemed some of these measures unconstitutional.
While Shaked may struggle to get the coalition government's pro-immigration faction — which includes the left-leaning Labor and Meretz parties — to sign-off on her proposal, as head of the interior, she could tighten already-stringent rules on asylum applications. (Haaretz recently reported on Israel's diplomatic ploy to return African migrants to "blood-drenched dictatorships" in Africa.)
Infrastructure and the West Bank. Naftali Bennett is unapologetically pro-settlement, having long-advocated for Israel to annex swathes of the occupied West Bank because of these areas' sizable Jewish populations. The previous Likud government, meanwhile, also put infrastructure plans into motion, including new roads linking settlement blocs to major cities.
However, the transportation ministry is now likely to be led by Labor party chairwoman Merav Michaeli, a darling of the left. Michaeli will try to tweak the ministry's infrastructure priorities to focus on areas outside the West Bank, but her agenda could be hamstrung, at least in part, by the pro-settlement wing of the prospective coalition.
Palestinian issue. Not much is likely to change on this front. Lapid, head of the broad "change camp," is a centrist whose views are squarely within the current Jewish Israeli consensus. Lapid says he supports a two-state solution but opposes division of Jerusalem, which the Palestinians want as the capital of a future state. Settlements are unlikely to expand under this government, as they have done substantially under Netanyahu, but neither are efforts to advance the moribund peace process.
Meanwhile, on the issue of fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip, most coalition parties — and most Jewish Israelis — are aligned: a poll recently showed that 72 percent of Israelis supported their government's response to the Hamas rocket fire.
What's next for Bibi? When this coalition takes power, Bibi will likely remain leader of Israel's largest political party, and will head the opposition in the Knesset, even as he continues to face corruption charges that could eventually send him to jail. In the meantime, there's no reason to think Bibi won't do everything in his power to undermine the power-sharing government by trying to exploit differences within the ideologically-diverse coalition. If he succeeds, that would precipitate another election that could return him to the PM's seat.