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The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022, more than a week after Russia invaded Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Suspected US intel leaks, peace talks for Yemen, Lula talks trade with Xi
A murky document mystery
Some months ago, mysterious documents began showing up on websites used mainly by online gamers that appear to reveal top-secret US government information on the war in Ukraine and other sensitive topics. In particular, they include what seem to be maps of Ukrainian air defenses and an analysis of a secret plan by US ally South Korea to covertly deliver 330,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine to boost its widely expected spring counteroffensive.
Once noticed, copies of the documents made their way into mainstream media and triggered investigations by the Pentagon and the US Justice Department over possible leaks. Ukrainian officials say the documents may have come from Russian spies. Others say someone inside the US intel community must have leaked them. Some experts warn the documents may be fakes.
Given the stakes for Ukraine and for US relations with allies, this isn’t a story anyone should ignore. But the most important questions – Who did this? Why? Are the documents real? Will they change the war? If so, how? – can’t yet be answered. And like the mystery surrounding the explosion that damaged the Nord Stream pipeline last September, they may never be answered. We’ll keep watching.
Will peace finally come to Yemen?
A Saudi delegation is visiting Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, for talks with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in hopes of ending the nine-year conflict that’s turned Yemen into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The war began in 2014 when Houthis, who are Shiite, overthrew the Saudi-backed Sunni government and took over the capital. Violence has since plagued the country, and the conflict has broadly been seen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Fighting has also spilled over into Saudi territory, where rebels have targeted the kingdom’s oil infrastructure.
The talks – mediated by Oman – come after both sides agreed last month to renew a previously expired ceasefire. Still, several thorny issues remain, including how to secure oil fields in rebel-held areas, as well as the easing of blockades on Sanaa’s airport (by the Saudis) and Red Sea ports (by Houthis) that are obstructing the flow of humanitarian aid to 21.6 million people.
Hopes of a resolution in Yemen come after Tehran and Riyadh recently agreed to renew diplomatic ties after a seven-year rupture. Expectations of a cessation of hostilities, however, have been raised and dashed in the past.
Lula to talk trade in China
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is heading to China on Tuesday for a four-day summit. The trip was originally planned for March but was postponed after Lula contracted pneumonia.
Lula lands in Shanghai before heading to Beijing, where he’ll meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Brazilian leader is being accompanied by more than 250 business leaders, nearly a third of whom belong to Brazil’s agricultural sector. His entourage tells us that these meetings will be about trade, trade, and more trade. Lula will also invite President Xi to Brazil to view projects for which Brazil is seeking Chinese investment.
After Lula’s last visit to Beijing in 2009, China became Brazil’s top trading partner, causing demand for its soybeans, iron ore, and oil to skyrocket and fueling an economic boom for Brazil. By 2021, Brazil was China’s largest destination for foreign direct investment. Now in his third term, Lula is facing a tough economic and political landscape and hopes to revive his stagnating economy by diversifying Brazil’s trade relationship with China.
The two men will also discuss the war in Ukraine, with Lula believing he can help negotiate peace.
But Brazil is already navigating tensions between the US and China. In February, Lula met with US President Joe Biden to affirm his relationship with Brazil’s most important regional security partner. Meanwhile, China is hoping that by strengthening its relationship with Brazil it can boost its influence in Latin America and weaken Brazil’s ties to the US. The meetings come just days after China and Brazil agreed to ditch the US dollar and exchange their currencies directly. So in China, Lula must tread carefully to stay in both Biden's and Xi’s good graces.
Houthi supporters rally in Sana'a to mark the 8th anniversary of the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen.
Hard Numbers: Yemen peace talks, Ukrainian drone challenge, UAE snubs South Africa, Spanish paleo tripping
8: Saudi officials on Sunday met in Yemen's capital, Sana'a, with reps of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and Omani mediators in what the UN is framing as the most serious effort yet to end 8 years of proxy civil war in the country. The talks come weeks after bitter rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia buried the diplomatic hatchet, raising hopes for peace in Yemen.
543,000: A Ukrainian fintech bro is offering 20 million hryvnias ($548,000) to whoever launches a drone that flies over and lands in Moscow's Red Square during Russia's Victory Day celebrations on May 9. To qualify for the prize, the drone must be identified with the slogan "Glory to Ukraine" or similar.
2: The UAE unexpectedly rejected South Africa's request to extradite two of the Gupta brothers. Atul and Rajesh Gupta, who enjoyed close ties with disgraced former President Jacob Zuma, are wanted by Pretoria on fraud and money laundering charges. The Emirati thumbs-down is a major blow to current President Cyril Ramaphosa's efforts to hold the Gupta family biz empire accountable for allegedly looting the state under Zuma.
3,000: Spaniards are known to party hard — and, it turns out, they've been tripping longer than anyone else in Europe. New research claims that people in Spain were getting high on hallucinogenic drugs derived from plants 3,000 years ago, the oldest direct evidence of narcotics use on the continent.
A Somali refugee girl carries her sibling in the Hagadera refugee camp near the Kenya-Somalia border, in Garissa County, Kenya, January 17, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Somalia’s deadly drought, Yemen prisoner swap, North Korean war games, a happier world?
43,000: Somalia’s longest-recorded drought claimed 43,000 lives last year, with up to 34,000 more deaths projected in the first half of 2023, according to a new WHO report. The country has suffered several failed rainy seasons, and the crisis is being exacerbated by rising global food prices. Meanwhile, Somalia is being starved of aid as donors prioritize Ukraine.
880: A prisoner swap between the Saudi-backed Yemen government and Iranian-supported Houthi rebels will see the exchange of 880 detainees, including 15 Saudis. The deal is part of an ongoing effort by the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross to promote an end to the long-simmering conflict, which is getting an extra boost after Iran and Saudi Arabia renewed ties earlier this month.
5: North Korea says it simulated a nuclear attack on its southern neighbor this weekend with a ballistic missile launch, its fifth missile demonstration this month. The DPRK says it was protesting joint South Korea-US military exercises it sees as preparation for an invasion, but the allies say the drills were merely defensive in nature.
25: Global benevolence is up 25% compared to before the pandemic, according to a new UN report on world happiness. The report, which measures happiness across 150 countries, has found that feelings of positive social support are trending stronger worldwide. Do you agree with the findings? Tell us here.
Stories we overlooked in 2022
A handful of stories – the war in Ukraine, China’s zero-COVID policy, and US elections – have dominated much of the media coverage this year. Meanwhile, many other crucial global stories have been woefully undercovered. We take a look at four of them.
Venezuela: The challenge of migrating again
Since strongman President Nicolás Maduro responded with an iron fist to widespread protests in 2014 over shortages of goods and sky-high inflation, Venezuela has been subject to more severe US economic sanctions that have put its already-struggling economy on life support. (One of the first sanctions was imposed by the Bush administration in 2006 over Caracas’ failure to crack down on drug trafficking and terrorism.)
As a result of the economic and political crises gripping the country, more than 7 million Venezuelans have fled since 2015, making it one of the world’s largest migrant crises. For those who stayed behind, their quality of life is abysmal: Joblessness is rife, the medical system is in tatters, and more than 67% live in extreme poverty. Meanwhile, most of those who fled sought refuge in Latin America, mainly in Colombia, where they have struggled to find jobs – forcing many women to resort to sex work or even to sell their hair to survive.
But 2022 brought fresh challenges for Venezuela's migrant population. Global inflation has disrupted Latin America’s gig economy, which many Venezuelan migrants rely on to get by. As a result, thousands have been forced to uproot their lives – again – resulting in new migration routes to North America.
Consider that in the first 10 months of this year, Venezuelans accounted for 70% of people who trekked through the Darien Gap, a perilous crossing between Colombia and Panama that’s submerged in dense jungle and swarming with drug cartels and guerrilla groups. The US recently lifted some sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector in a bid to offset losses from Russia. But Washington is still a long way off from reaching any agreements with the Maduro regime that would rescue Caracas’ economy.
Afghanistan: No reprieve for Afghan women
If 2022 was the year that the world stood with Ukraine, then 2021 was about standing with the people of Afghanistan after the Taliban swept to power at lightning speed.
At the time, Taliban officials said they would safeguard women’s “Islamic right” to study and work. But unsurprisingly, 18 months later that message has proven hollow. Life under Taliban rule has again proven intolerable for Afghans, particularly for women and girls. The Taliban has banned girls aged 13-18 from attending school, and more recently forbid women from attending university, prompting sporadic protests. Women have also been banned from working for nongovernment organizations, while public spaces in Kabul, the capital, are also off limits to Afghan women.
What’s more, Afghanistan’s economy is in tatters as the Taliban remains cut off from the bulk of its foreign reserves, which are mostly held in US banks. As a result, food insecurity is widespread, and the security situation is also spiraling as ISIS-K, a Taliban rival, feels emboldened to wreak havoc. As long as the Taliban remains in charge, Washington is unlikely to unlock any funds.
Rohingya: Stranded at sea
Around a million Rohingya – a Muslim minority long persecuted by the military and political elite in majority-Buddhist Myanmar – have fled to neighboring Bangladesh since 2017, after Myanmar’s military perpetrated a massacre against them. Since then, Rohingya refugees have languished in squalid conditions in Cox’s Bazar, a sprawling tent city for refugees, where violence, gang rape, and murder are rife.
In the meantime, many Rohingya have preferred to try their luck at sea, getting into rickety boats in hopes of reaching Malaysia, which opened its borders to stateless Rohingya in 2016. But 2022 has proven one of the deadliest years at sea for the Rohingya, according to the UN. Case in point: For more than a month, a vessel with at least 160 Rohingya aboard, including children who have gone weeks without food, was stranded in the Andaman Sea, while another is presumed to have sunk earlier this month with 180 Rohingya on board.
Meanwhile, negotiations between the Bangladesh government and Myanmar’s military dictatorship – which resumed earlier this year after a hiatus – on the potential voluntary repatriation of Rohingya have not proven fruitful.
Yemen: The forgotten war
Photos of Yemeni children are difficult to stomach – the protruding ribs and sunken faces. But after eight years of war, we don’t see many of these images in the media these days.
While fighting between the Iran-backed Houthi rebels and the Saudi-backed government ebbed this year as a result of a ceasefire, the two sides failed to reach an agreement in October to extend the truce. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation remains dire: At least 17 million Yemenis are food insecure, and 2.2 million children under five have required medical care for malnutrition this year.
What’s more, as GZERO's Alex Kliment previously wrote, international attention for Ukraine has drawn humanitarian resources away from Yemen, making it harder to finance aid missions there. As of October, just 47% of the UN-led Humanitarian Response Plan for Yemen had been funded by the international community. With longtime land and sea blockades preventing humanitarian shipments, stalemate remains the most likely scenario in 2023.
UK Prime Minister Liz Truss and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng attend the annual Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Britain
What We’re Watching: UK PM's budget U-turn, OPEC mulls production cut, Yemen truce expires
Truss’s tax U-turn
Will it be enough? New British PM Liz Truss’s government has reversed course on its economic agenda. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng told the Conservative Party conference on Monday that a proposal to scrap the UK’s 45% tax rate for high-income earners would be axed. He cited the recent market chaos and vowed that there would be “no more distractions” in pursuing the rest of the government’s proposed tax policies. This caps a dismal couple of weeks for the new Tory leadership during which the Bank of England tried to calm markets after Kwarteng introduced £45 billion ($49 billion) worth of tax cuts despite sky-high inflation. The upheaval also caused the pound to plummet against the greenback (it regained some value on Monday). Truss and Kwarteng said they changed tack after listening to voters struggling amid the cost-of-living crisis. But it had become clear that the plan would have struggled to pass the House of Commons. The top tax rate accounted for just £2 billion of the proposed tax cuts, so this reversal will only go so far in placating opponents and markets. Truss addresses the party conference on Wednesday, and after her rocky start, we’ll be watching to see whether she can win support for her economic plan – and revive her party’s dismal approval rating enough to stay in the top job.
OPEC Plus prepares to cut oil production
OPEC Plus, the Saudi-led oil cartel plus Russia, is expected to announce a major cut in oil production at its meeting on Wednesday in a bid to reverse falling petroleum prices. Thanks to rising interest rates in the US and elsewhere, a sharp economic slowdown in China that’s partly related to its “zero-COVID” lockdown strategy, and the impact of inflation in many parts of the world, demand for oil has weakened in recent months. Prices have fallen by about one quarter since June to around $85 a barrel on Friday. If the Saudis lead the way on cuts, the decision will mark a rejection of pressure from the Biden administration to keep oil in the market to ease upward pressure on prices. Russia’s energy production future is also becoming an important question. By including Russia in output decisions, the Saudis and other OPEC members boost their own leverage in global markets, but Western sanctions and export controls, and Europe’s move to end its reliance on Russian energy, will reduce Russia’s ability to meet production targets in years to come, leaving Moscow a less valuable partner for OPEC over time.
Yemen’s best shot at peace (so far) falls apart
The warring parties in Yemen’s civil war failed to renew a UN-brokered ceasefire after six months, the longest and most hopeful lull in violence since the conflict began in 2014. The truce between the internationally recognized, Gulf-backed Yemeni government and the Iran-linked Houthi rebels who have taken over large swathes of the country, first went into effect in April. It partially restarted flights between the Houthi-controlled Sanaa airport and other Arab capitals, loosened the international blockade on the port of Hodeidah, which is also under Houthi control, and envisioned the Houthis lifting their siege of the strategic, government-controlled city of Taiz. The truce was renewed once after three months, but further talks fell apart in recent days as the two sides were unable to agree on a fuller opening of the airport, Hodeidah, or Taiz. They also clashed over funding the salaries of Yemen’s government bureaucrats, who haven’t been paid in years. The pact’s collapse raises the specter of fresh violence in a conflict where violence and famine have already killed close to half a million people.Osama bin Laden sits with his successor Ayman al-Zawahri.
What We’re Watching: US kills Al-Qaida leader, Pelosi's Taiwan pit stop, Yemen holds its breath, tensions rise between Kosovo and Serbs
US kills al-Qaida leader
President Joe Biden addressed the nation Monday night to make an announcement 21 years in the making: the US killed al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahri in a drone strike in Kabul over the weekend. Osama bin Laden’s right-hand man and key architect in the 9/11 terror attacks was killed in the first US attack in Afghanistan since the American withdrawal last August. The operation – a major counterterrorism coup for Biden – reportedly saw al-Zawahri killed at the home of a staffer to senior Taliban leader Sirajuddin Haqqani. A CIA ground team, with the help of aerial reconnaissance, has confirmed the death. “My hope is that this decisive action will bring one more measure of closure,” Biden told loved ones of 9/11 victims. He also warned that the US “will always remain vigilant … to ensure the safety and security of Americans at home and around the globe.” With al-Qaida franchises having cropped up globally over the past decade, the death of Zawahri – who was wary of the brand’s localization and its effect on his authority – will present a challenge for control of the militant group.
Pelosi Taiwan fallout?
We won’t know whether US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan until she lands there or leaves Asia, but US and Taiwanese officials said Monday they expect she will spend a night there. In response, China’s foreign ministry has warned that the People’s Liberation Army “won’t sit by idly” if it decides Pelosi’s visit undermines China’s “territorial integrity.” It’s not that the US and Chinese governments don’t understand the sensitivity of the timing. The Biden administration, which has warned publicly against a Pelosi visit, is well aware that China’s upcoming Party Congress and its importance for President Xi Jinping’s future make this an extraordinarily provocative moment for a Taiwan visit from the highest-ranking US official to go there in 25 years. Beijing understands that in the US system of co-equal branches of government, the House Speaker doesn’t need the president’s permission to visit other countries. They also know that Pelosi probably won’t be speaker much longer, given the outlook for US midterm elections, and that this is probably her last chance to keep a promise to visit Taiwan. Each side understands, but neither Pelosi nor Xi sees a reason to back down. Keep watching this situation closely.
Yemen’s turning point
A four-month UN-sponsored truce is set to expire in Yemen on Tuesday. What happens next remains unclear. More than seven years of war between a government supported by Saudi Arabia and its regional allies on one side and Houthi rebels backed by Iran on the other has created a humanitarian crisis. Some 17 million Yemenis struggle to find food every day, and the war has inflicted so much damage on homes, schools, roads, and hospitals that even if peace takes hold it might take decades to rebuild. If peace does not take hold, beginning with an extension of the expiring truce, it will be because the two sides are still evenly matched militarily and have not surrendered their weapons — and because there is little trust between them.
Tensions rise in Kosovo
Ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo were supposed to switch their Serbian-issued license plates for Kosovan-issued ones this week, but Kosovo’s government has just delayed implementation by a month owing to simmering tensions. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but tens of thousands of ethnic Serbs living there refuse to recognize the country, which Serbia still sees as its province. The new rules were meant to take hold on Monday, but ethnic Serbs have been protesting and barricading roads with tankers and trucks near two border crossings with Serbia. Police in Kosovo also say shots were fired toward them but that no one was hurt. Fears of rising Balkan instability – with the bloody conflict of the 1990s still fresh on everyone’s minds – led to the postponement. The US and EU have called for calm, and the NATO-led “Kfor” peacekeeping mission is "prepared to intervene if stability is jeopardized."
Crow on the menu during Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia
US President Joe Biden is currently en route to the Middle East for the first time since taking office, and he’ll be making stops in Israel and the West Bank before making a more controversial swing through Saudi Arabia.
Yes, the same Saudi Arabia that, as a presidential candidate, Biden promised to treat like a “global pariah” because of the kingdom’s grim human rights record, its brutal war in Yemen, and the alleged involvement of the powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
But that was then, and this is now. With inflation soaring, midterm elections approaching, and prospects for a new Iran nuclear deal receding, Joe Biden is hopping on a jet to Riyadh with a few key issues in mind.
Oil and inflation. Big post-pandemic demand and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have driven global oil and natural gas prices to their highest sustained levels in almost a decade, dragging inflation up and pushing Biden’s approval ratings down. (Way, way down.)
In principle, the Saudis could flip the switch to produce more oil for Uncle Sam — but will they?
High prices suit them just fine so long as they don't push major economies into a recession, and Riyadh is currently in a pact with other OPEC members “plus” Russia to increase output only gradually.
Whatever Biden says or promises to the Saudis this week, we’ll see the results soon enough: the next OPEC+ meeting is in early August.
Arabs and Israel (and Iran). Biden's efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear never had many fans in Israel or Saudi Arabia, both of which opposed the original pact. But hopes of reaching a new agreement are now flagging badly anyway, with the Islamic Republic back to enriching uranium while de-enriching trust with the West. What's more, Tehran is now reportedly ready to sell Russia drones for use in Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin is set to visit Iran next week.
All of that makes the US especially keen to boost regional cooperation between major Sunni Arab states and Israel, who share a keen interest in containing Tehran.
One big focus on this score is a new US-sponsored air defense alliance for the region, which Israel has reportedly been developing with several Sunni Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia. On this trip, Biden is almost certain to highlight this grouping — which some have even framed as the beginnings of a “Middle Eastern NATO.”
Another is the prospect of closer official ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. While full Saudi recognition of Israel is unlikely for now because they want a Palestinian state, Riyadh may announce incremental steps like opening airspace to Israeli airlines or to Palestinian pilgrims traveling to Mecca while quietly deepening their behind-the-scenes intelligence-sharing.
Yemen. With the eight-year-old war currently on hold under a tenuous truce between the Saudi-backed official government and the Iran-linked Houthi rebels, Biden will look to press the Saudis to do more to secure a lasting peace. The price for that, however, will likely be resuming US arms sales to the kingdom and helping protect Saudi Arabia from drone or missile attacks by the Houthis, likely to retain control over northern Yemen in any viable peace settlement.
So much for what Biden is after — what do the Saudis want out of all of this?
Satisfaction, for one thing. “The Saudis basically want Biden to eat crow,” says Steven Cook, a Middle East expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.
After two years of being trashed over human-rights issues that had never really come to a head before, the Saudis are happy to see Biden admit that the kingdom is still indispensable to Washington.
But for Cook, there’s a deeper uncertainty that the Saudis want to address. “Every time I’m in the Gulf these days I hear the same thing: ‘we can’t count on US policy.’”
That’s partly because four consecutive US administrations have vowed to leave the region, says David Gordon, a senior adviser to Eurasia Group and the former head of policy planning at the US State Department. “That’s a lot easier said than done, obviously, but it creates an expectation that the US wants out.”
Throughout that time, of course, US policy has oscillated wildly. For Obama, the way out was the Iran deal. Trump then tore up that agreement, embraced the Saudis unconditionally, and brokered closer Arab-Israeli ties to contain Iran locally. Then Biden walked that back and ignored the Saudis while unsuccessfully re-engaging with Iran, only to come back now to kiss the ring.
With little clarity about the balance of power in Washington after the upcoming US midterms, let alone the 2024 presidential election, the Saudis want to get back to something that looks more predictable, says Gerry Butts, Eurasia Group's vice chairman.
“For the Saudis, this visit is about narrowing the oscillations in policy and bringing things back to normal, so that it doesn’t really matter to them again [who’s] in the White House.”
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People tour a Sana'a graveyard for Houthi fighters killed in fighting during a 2016 ceasefire in Yemen's civil war.
Is Yemen on the road to peace?
A powerful country invades its neighbor. The conflict quickly becomes a brutal proxy war. A horrific humanitarian crisis ensues. While much of the world’s attention has been on Ukraine for the past few months, the civil war in Yemen is now in its eighth year. But in recent weeks signs of hope for peace have emerged, if faintly. What is the latest in a grinding conflict that has provoked what the UN calls "the world's worst humanitarian crisis"?
First, the background. In 2014, the Houthis, an ultra-conservative Muslim religious group from northern Yemen seized upon anti-government protests to storm the capital, Sana’a. The Houthis, who have long chafed against central government rule, quickly took control of broader swaths of the country. The government accused the Houthis of being an Iranian proxy and invited Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with US logistical support, to lead a military coalition against the rebels. Ever since, the two sides have been locked in a brutal war marked by grave human rights abuses on both sides. The coalition's blockade of Yemeni ports has contributed to the humanitarian crisis, while Houthi rocket attacks on Saudi Arabia have expanded the conflict beyond Yemen's borders.
The good news. The fighting has mostly stopped – for now. Both sides are largely respecting a UN-brokered ceasefire from April. Under the agreement, the Saudi-led coalition relaxed its blockade and permitted a limited number of flights to resume between Sana’a and other Arab capitals. But so far the two sides have not been able to agree on a third point, a plan for the Houthis to lift their siege of Taiz, a strategic, government-held city in the southwest.
Still, violence is at its lowest level since the war began. Civilian casualties fell by 50% in the first month of the truce, says Jasmin Lavoie of the Norwegian Refugee Council in Sana’a. “When you go home at night, you aren’t afraid of hearing airstrikes,” he says, “and if you live near a front line, you are safer today than before the truce.”
The bad news. Trust between — and even within — the various parties to the conflict is very low. The official Yemeni government is now run by a new, Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council that features a motley crew of politicians and warlords who don’t fully get along with each other.
The Houthis, for their part, are an insular group. They have given few clues about what kind of post-war government they’d like to see in Yemen, and it’s unclear how interested they are in truly sharing power. "The Houthis don't really do inclusiveness," says Veena Ali-Khan, a Yemen specialist with International Crisis Group.
A breakthrough on the specific issue of Taiz would go a long way to boosting trust, says Ali-Khan. But without that, she warns, both sides may quickly decide that “going back to fighting is the best possible outcome.”
On that score, one area of particular concern is the battle for the oil-rich province of Ma’arib — currently under tenuous government control. It is one of the few places where sporadic violence has continued even under the current truce.
A crude offshore time bomb. As if these challenges facing Yemen weren’t enough, an abandoned, badly rusting oil tanker off the Northwest coast threatens to break apart, spilling more than a million barrels of crude into the Red Sea. The warring parties have recently agreed to allow access to the ship for the first time, but the UN has been reduced to crowdfunding to raise the $80 million it needs to offload the oil before disaster strikes. A spill, which would be four times the size of the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster, would not only wreak havoc on Red Sea marine life, it would send the Yemeni fishing economy belly up for a generation.
Even with the truce, the humanitarian situation is dire. Some 17 million Yemenis struggle to find food daily, says Lavoie. And that number could jump to 19 million by the end of the year as the war in Ukraine interrupts shipments of wheat that Yemen depends on. What’s more, international attention to Ukraine has drawn humanitarian resources away from Yemen and other non-European countries, he says, making it harder to finance aid missions there.
What's more, the destruction already wrought by both sides — on infrastructure, hospitals, homes, and schools — is so immense that even if there were a lasting peace tomorrow, says Lavoie, “it wouldn’t mean the end of suffering for the Yemeni people.”
Still, even with all these challenges, there is room for cautious optimism. "The parties of the conflict are meeting face to face, and there is an extension of the truce," says Lavoie. "That could lead to lasting peace, and that means hope for many -- now people can hope."
The truce is due to be renewed on August 2nd.