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U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a joint press conference with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae Yul following their talks in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2025.
South Korean authorities get extension to Yoon arrest warrant
South Korean anti-corruption authorities reached a deal with police to extend their warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday after failing to arrest him on Friday. A six-hour standoff with presidential security in the official residence amounted to nothing, and the corruption investigators have asked the National Police Agency to take over the responsibility of detaining Yoon. Authorities have not disclosed the new extension's expiration date.
Police are in uncharted waters, however, as no previous South Korean president has been arrested before being removed from office. Yoon was impeached in December, but vacancies on the constitutional court have prevented his official removal. Meanwhile, his party is playing for time – hoping to stall long enough to allow the high court to rule on a case that could render the opposition leader ineligible to run in elections to replace Yoon.
The gridlock is starting to chafe allies, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had expressed “serious concerns” during talks in Seoul with his counterpart on Monday. But Blinken also praised the strong response of South Korean institutions to Yoon’s attempt to seize power through martial law.
North Korea, which has taken a cautious approach thus far amid Seoul’s domestic upheaval, used Blinken’s visit as an opportunity to test a medium-range missile with a supposedly hypersonic capacity. We’re watching how Pyongyang approaches potential provocations once the Biden administration leaves the scene.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to the nation at the Presidential Office in Seoul, South Korea, December 12, 2024.
South Korean president’s removal slows down over court vacancies
On Tuesday, the floor leader for South Korea’s newly-impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol’s party said it would be inappropriate to fill vacancies on the constitutional court with the powers of an acting president, setting up a fight aimed at slow-rolling Yoon’s final removal from office.
Wait, how is Yoon impeached but not gone? It’s a two-step process. The National Assembly was able to clear the two-thirds supermajority to impeach Yoon on Saturday, and he was immediately suspended from office. Now at least six justices on the constitutional court need to approve the legality of the impeachment — and this isn’t a given. The court overturned the much more controversial impeachment of former President Roh Moo-hyun in 2004. Once that hurdle is cleared, Yoon is gone for good, and a sixty day clock starts ticking down to fresh elections.
There’s just one problem. Three of the court’s nine seats are vacant, meaning the entire bench would need to vote unanimously to remove Yoon. Even though the facts are pretty stacked against Yoon, just one justice could theoretically put him back in office, which is why the liberal opposition wants to fill the three seats.
Ideally, as quickly as possible, because their leader, and presumptive presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung is in legal hot water of his own. He was convicted of violating election laws and handed a one-year suspended sentence in November, which could prevent him from running for president — if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling.
Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says the opposition “recognizes that the longer this drags out, the greater the chances that the Supreme Court will have time to rule on Lee’s conviction,” and possibly keep him out of the race. We’re watching how acting president Han Duck-soo handles the vacancies, as well as how the criminal case against Yoon and his collaborators proceeds.
South Koreans hold a mass rally demanding the impeachment and imprisonment of President Yoon Suk-Yeol near the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on Dec. 7.
Is anyone in charge of South Korea?
We imagine Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un is enjoying the scent of chaos emanating from his southern border. Last week, you’ll recall, President Yoon Suk Yeol took a page from Kim’s playbook and declared martial law in South Korea. That ended quickly, but the instability continues.
Deeply unpopular and hounded by scandals, Yoon may have thought he could take out his political enemies by suspending military and political activities, but steadfast legislators quickly gathered to vote and end the mutiny. Politicians then moved to impeach Yoon, but he survived when fellow conservatives in his People Power Party walked out before Saturday’s impeachment vote. While over 100,000 people protested Yoon’s leadership outside the legislature, only 195 legislators supported impeachment, just shy of the 200 votes needed for it to pass.
Afterward, Yoon apologized and promised not to declare martial law again, but that doesn’t mean all is forgiven. Yoon still faces legal trouble – prosecutors have opened a criminal case against him – and the PPP has reportedly officialized his “early resignation.” PPP leader Han Dong-hoon said Yoon has been effectively sidelined from his duties and that “the prime minister will consult with the party to manage state affairs.” Yoon's former defense minister has also been arrested.
Korean politics have entered “truly uncharted waters,” says Eurasia Group expert Jeremy Chan. “Yoon is politically radioactive, with no member of his own party defending his decision to impose martial law,” which means his “presidency is effectively over, even if he manages to stay in office for a few more weeks.”
Pressure will build on Yoon and the party for him to offer an “orderly resignation,” Chan explains. If he refuses, “the odds that he is impeached by the National Assembly will grow each week,” and the pressure will be accompanied by more and more public protests and strikes.
What about regional security? For now, Chan thinks Kim will keep his head low. “Kim’s risk appetite will be low in the short term given that a more accommodative administration is likely to follow in South Korea once Yoon is gone and elections are held.”
But what if Yoon holds on for months amid political paralysis? Then, Chan says, “Kim could see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to strike amid a leadership vacuum in South Korea.”South Korean protestors calling for the dismissal and impeachment of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, on December 4, 2024. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly declared martial law on December 3, 2024, citing threats to democracy from opposition lawmakers he labeled as pro-North Korea. The decree, which restricted political activities, media, and strikes, was quickly overturned by the National Assembly. The event highlights rising tensions and Yoon’s declining authority following significant opposition victories in recent elections.
South Korean president faces impeachment, treason charges
Soon after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted his imposition of martial law early Wednesday, opposition parties filed an impeachment bill against him in the National Assembly. Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Yoon’s defense minister, chief of staff, and top secretaries have all resigned, and the president faces calls to do the same. South Korea’s largest labor union is calling for mass strikes if Yoon refuses to step down.
The opposition Democratic Party is also drawing up treason charges against Yoon and his defense and interior ministers, which could land them behind bars if convicted. Two presidents from South Korea’s military-rule era, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, were convicted of treason in 1996.
What happens now? Yoon could resign, but Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says that’s not his usual MO. “He’s a pugilist by nature. I don’t think he will go out without a fight,” he says, though “there is a slim chance that he can secure a deal with [opposition leader Lee Jae-myung] to go quietly and fade into the background in exchange for immunity for him and his wife.”
Still, Yoon’s ouster isn’t guaranteed. The opposition needs to peel off at least eight votes from Yoon’s party for the bill to pass, but given the bipartisan rejection of the coup attempt, that seems feasible.
If the bill passes, it then goes to the Constitutional Court, where at least six of nine justices need to confirm the impeachment before Yoon is removed, a process that could take weeks. There’s a wrinkle here as well, as currently the court has three vacant seats, so the decision needs to be unanimous – or the vote has to await three appointments.
We’re watching how Yoon plays the next few days, and the scramble for position ahead of elections likely to be held in the spring if Yoon is impeached.