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Lots of foreign traveler are seen at Fushimi Inari-taisha Shrine in Kyoto City, Kyoto Prefecture on April 20, 2023. The number of tourists coming to Japan is increasing as the pandemic of new coronavirus COVID-19 has calmed down.
Hard Numbers: Foreign travel to Japan surges, Ethiopian diplomat expelled, Safari turns deadly, ABBA’s winning ‘Waterloo’
89: Japan’s weak yen is leading to a tourism surge, with foreign visitors jumping a whopping 89% in February — to 2.78 million people — compared to a year ago. Hotels, in turn, are fuller, and the day rates for stays are up roughly 25% since last year.
72: Ethiopia's ambassador has 72 hours to leave Somalia amid a spat over Ethiopian plans to build a naval base in the de facto autonomous region of Somaliland. Mogadishu is also closing two Ethiopian consulates and pulling its ambassador from Addis Ababa. Tensions between the two countries boiled over when Ethiopia offered possible recognition of Somaliland as part of the port deal, which Somalia sees as a move to annex part of Somalia to Ethiopia.
1: An 80-year-old American woman died while on a safari in Zambia this past weekend after a bull elephant charged at the vehicle she was in, flipping it. The tour company says the truck was blocked by the terrain and couldn’t get away from the agitated pachyderm. Last month, a similar attack took place in South Africa when a bull elephant lifted a 22-seat safari truck several times before letting it drop. There were no deaths reported in that incident.
50: It’s been 50 years to the day since ABBA won their first Eurovision song contest with “Waterloo.” Semifinal rounds for this year’s contest kick off next month, and, despite the competition's goal of staying apolitical, controversy over Israel's participation is already front and center.Women take part in a ritual event of naked festival, for the first time in its 1250 years of history, at Owari Okunitama Shrine, also known as Konomiya Shrine, in Inazawa, Aichi Prefecture, central Japan February 22, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Japanese women go to naked party, Australian fires rage, French farmers fume, and Zambian creditors get paid.
1250:Washoi! Women crashed the party at Japan's 1250-year-old Naked Festival, a traditionally all-male event designed to drive out evil spirits. While they didn’t actually bare all, the first-ever female participants successfully trampled gender norms while ensuring that the festival continues as Japan’s population ages.
2000: Wildfires have forced more than 2,000 people to flee towns in western Australia. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged all necessary assistance to combat the blazes, which are being exacerbated by an El Niño weather pattern known to fuel fires, cyclones and droughts.
1 : Angry French farmers delayed the opening of a major Paris farm fair by one hour, protesting costs, bureaucracy, and environmental regulations. Amid calls for his resignation, President Emmanuel Macron promised to meet with union representatives and stakeholders. European governments are concerned that the farm lobby could feed gains by the far right in European Parliament elections this June.
13 billion: Zambia’s 13bn mountain of debt is a little lighter today, thanks to deals struck with creditors China and India. It’s welcome news as the African nation contends with past defaults, depreciation of the kwacha, a revival of inflation, and a drought that was “one of the worst in living memory.” Zambia now plans to resume talks with private creditors and is back on track for a 1.3 billion bailout by the IMF.A map showing countries in Africa and Asia that criminalize same-sex acts, by degree of punishment.
The Graphic Truth: Criminalizing LGBTQ love
Last week, Uganda’s parliament passed legislation that criminalizes identifying as LGBTQ, which puts individuals at risk of life imprisonment, or in some cases, even death. Similarly, draconian legislation over identifying as LGBTQ is under consideration in Ghana, and VP Kamala Harris’s visit to Zambia this week – for a summit celebrating democracy – is stoking anti-LGBTQ rhetoric. As of 2023, many parts of the world are still unsafe for the LGBTQ community, as same-sex acts are deemed illegal in 65 countries, from Latin America to Oceania. The death penalty is a possibility in 11 countries worldwide. We look at the range of penalties in Africa and Asia, the two continents with the highest number of countries criminalizing same-sex acts.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff walk to a helicopter on their way to Cape Coast in Accra, Ghana, Tuesday March 28, 2023.
What We’re Watching: Zambia warns against anti-LGBTQ protests, AI scares tech leaders
Zambia warns against anti-LGBTQ protests ahead of Harris’s arrival
Zambia’s President Hakainde Hichilema is warning against anti-LGBTQ protests ahead of US Veep Kamala Harris’s visit Friday, part of a three-nation Africa tour aimed at shoring up US relations across Africa.
While in Lusaka, Harris will (virtually) address the Summit for Democracy, a Biden-crafted international conference designed to bolster democratic institutions and norms amid rising global authoritarianism. But dozens of Zambian opposition MPs claim the summit also aims to introduce gay rights to the country.
The opposition Patriotic Front Party reportedly plans to hold protests before the summit, but Hichilema has called for calm and for a dialogue with his opponents. Earlier this month, he vowed to maintain Zambia’s laws criminalizing consensual same-sex acts, which carry a life sentence.
This isn’t the first time gay rights have come up during Harris’s tour. In Ghana, she noted that LGBTQ rights are human rights but did not discuss the proposed Ghanaian bill to criminalize LGBTQ identification and advocacy. Harris’s visit also follows Uganda’s adoption last week of a draconian law that criminalizes identifying as LGBTQ, which could involve the death penalty in some cases.
Is AI getting too smart, too fast?
Yes, according to billionaire Elon Musk and over 1,000 other artificial intelligence luminaries, who've published an open letter calling for a six-month "pause" on further AI development. Why? So it doesn't threaten humanity by creating digital minds so powerful that they can't be controlled by humans.
But perhaps "humanity" is code for white-collar jobs. After all, Goldman Sachs just warned that AI could put up to 300 million people out of work in a decade. Most at-risk jobs are desk gigs, not blue-collar manufacturing jobs we once thought would be wiped out by automation.
Should that be more or less important than stopping AI from automating political misinformation in social media? And what if China takes advantage of the pause to beat the US in the AI race? Let us know your thoughts on taking an AI break here.
Sergio Massa attends an event after the 2021 midterm elections in Buenos Aires.
What We’re Watching: Argentina’s super minister, China-Zambia debt deal, Ukrainian grain trader dead
Can a "super minister" save Argentina?
Argentina's embattled President Alberto Fernández has appointed Sergio Massa, the influential leader of the lower house of parliament, to head a new "super ministry" that Fernández hopes will help steer the country out of a deep economic crisis. Massa, Argentina's third economic minister in less than a month, will oversee economic, manufacturing, and agricultural policy. He has his work cut out for him owing to soaring inflation, farmers demanding tax relief, and a recent run on the peso. Massa also needs to convince the IMF that Argentina will comply with the terms of its $44 billion debt restructuring deal. There's a political angle too: he's (arguably) the strongest candidate the left-wing Peronista coalition has to run for president next year if the unpopular Fernández drops his bid for a second term. Massa is one of very few politicians who can navigate the ongoing rift between the president and his powerful VP, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. If the new "super minister" does a good job, he'll be in pole position for a 2023 presidential run; if he fails, the ruling Peronistas will face long odds to stay in power.
China gives Zambia debt relief, paving way for others
Zambia's creditors, led by China, will give the cash-strapped African country enough debt relief to unlock a $1.3 billion IMF loan it desperately needs to get back into the black. It's the first time that Beijing has coordinated with other governments to restructure the debt of a low-income country instead of collecting on its own. This is good news not only for Zambia but also for other nations that owe a lot to China such as Sri Lanka, which has already defaulted, and Pakistan, which could be next. Zambia, the first country to default after COVID struck, is often cited as a glaring example of China's so-called debt trap diplomacy. But President Hichilema Hakainde, elected in late 2021, has successfully leveraged the country's vast copper reserves to reassure both the IMF and China (the latter wary of the bad optics of squeezing African countries. The deal also puts pressure on private creditors to give more breathing room to heavily indebted nations grappling with high inflation and a strong US dollar. But there's a catch: private investors will have to agree to at least as much debt relief as public creditors.
The latest from Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated on multiple fronts over the weekend, particularly with heavy shelling in the southern city of Mykolaiv that killed businessman Oleksiy Vadatursky. The death of Vadatursky, head of one of Ukraine’s top grain exporting companies, comes just as grain shipments are set to finally resume on Monday from its Black Sea ports. Meanwhile, Ukraine claimed it killed dozens of Russian soldiers near Kherson, crucial for the Kremlin’s supply lines lines in the Donbas region. But Kyiv had to play defense as well, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered the mandatory evacuation of civilians in the eastern Donetsk province, indicating that fighting is likely to get even more intense there. Finally, Russia was forced to cancel Navy Day in Crimea after its Black Sea Fleet was attacked by a drone from inside the Russian-occupied peninsula hours after President Vladimir Putin announced a new security doctrine with global maritime ambitious and declaring America as Russia’s greatest enemy.Security forces stand guard at a roadblock after Peru's President Pedro Castillo imposed a curfew in Lima.
Hard Numbers: Lima curfew, Hotel Rwanda hero’s jail term upheld, Chilean constitutional meh, Zambian prez rules for free
25: Peruvian President Pedro Castillo enforced a curfew in Lima Tuesday in an attempt to stop disgruntled Peruvians from protesting against soaring energy prices. Castillo, a leftist and former school teacher, has a nationwide approval rating of just 25%. What’s more, he recently survived his second impeachment attempt in just eight months.
25: A Rwandan court has upheld the 25-year prison sentence of Paul Rusesabagina, the Hotel Rwanda hero who saved Hutus and Tutsis in Kigali during the genocide in the early 1990s. President Paul Kagame claims that the charges are linked to Rusesabagina's support for rebel groups accused of coordinating attacks in southern Rwanda in 2018. But supporters of Rusesabagina say that the arrest was retaliation for his public criticism of Kagame.
46: As Chile’s constitutional assembly moves to rewrite the Pinochet-era text, some 46% of Chileans say they’ll vote against the new constitution when it faces a referendum this year, according to a new poll. Initial optimism has faded as the group has moved to make unpopular changes to pension funds and Chilean property rights.
8: Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has reportedly gone eight months without receiving a presidential salary. Hichilema, who served in the opposition for 15 years before winning the top job in 2021, says he was never motivated by money. Some see it as a humane gesture amid tough economic times, but some critics think the millionaire politician is doing it all for show.Can “cattle boy” fix Zambia?
A harrowing debt default, cinema-worthy corruption cases, and a controversial attempt to change the constitution all provided the backdrop for Hichilema Hakainde’s election as Zambia’s president earlier this year. Despite attempts by incumbent president Edgar Lungu to rig the vote, Hichilema won a landslide victory by promising to boost jobs and crush corruption. But does Hichilema, a businessman-turned-politician, have what it takes to fix the faltering fortunes of Africa’s second-largest copper producer, a country that was once one of the continent’s fastest growing economies?
We sat down with Eurasia Group analyst Connor Vasey to find out how things have gone during the new president’s first few months in office.
Who is Hichilema?
The self-described “cattle boy” grew up tending to his family’s livestock, won a scholarship to study at university, and then went on to have a successful career in business. He served as the head of the local units of multinational accounting firms Grant Thornton and Coopers & Lybrand and currently owns interests in some of the country’s largest ranches, beef suppliers, and tourism firms. Hichilema later turned his hand to politics and became the leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND) in 2006. Yet a lack of political experience, and his aloof demeanor, worked against him both in the party and with the public, and he failed in his first five attempts to win the presidency.
So, how did he win this time?
A slow process of alliance building and developing his political savvy helped Hichilema transform the UPND from a regional party from the south into a competitive player on the national stage. Following a particularly narrow loss by Hichilema in the 2016 presidential election, authorities arrested him on dubious charges of treason after his motorcade failed to give way to Lungu’s. He was jailed for four months, but the experience gave him the air of a political martyr, which he put to good use on the 2021 campaign trail. But many Zambians were already ready to support him, after six years of a Lungu government that had presided over slowing economic growth, massive kickback schemes, defaults, and growing authoritarianism. An attempt to amend the constitution to give more power to Lungu's party and family failed – but only narrowly.
What are the biggest challenges the new president faces?
The country’s economy was already dragged down by low international prices for copper and other commodities when the government began defaulting on its debts to foreign creditors last year. This took the country’s currency from K8/$1 when Lungu entered office to K22.6/$1 when he left it. Combined with the fallout of the pandemic, the economy shrunk by 2.8% in 2020.
So Hichilema must now walk a tightrope between creating an economic plan that reassures creditors – by cutting back on ‘unnecessary expenditures’ like popular fertilizer and power subsidies – but does not strain the goodwill of the voters who elected him. Unfortunately, his aloof demeanor has come to the fore once again and many Zambians lament the lack of communication from their president on the country’s direction. Many of his reforms will take time to bear fruit in the form of increased investment and business confidence that can improve standards of living in the country. Yet Hichilema faces the challenge of high expectations. He was elected on a platform of change and Zambians are hoping for a quick reversal of their economic fortunes.
What has he done so far?
Given his lack of experience in government, Hichilema has primarily been focused on understanding the scope of the problems he faces and on dismantling the patronage networks put in place by the former ruling Patriotic Front. Still, his appointment of respected economist Situmbeko Musokotwane as finance minister and steps taken to unblock talks with the IMF on a lending program and with international creditors on a debt restructuring program have helped to stabilize the country’s currency. He has also taken steps to improve relations with members of the business community who were alienated by the corruption and unpredictable policy making of the Lungu years, including the companies that operate the country’s all-important copper mines.
What are Zambians saying?
Efforts by the new president to appoint more women and representatives of different regions to important positions have won praise following the preference given to people from the North and East under Lungu. But grumbling has already started about a perceived lack of progress on Hichilema’s two most important campaign pledges of reviving the economy and putting an end to corruption.
In contrast to the hyperactive style of the previous administration, the new president has attempted to bring a slower, more deliberative approach to governance and decision-making. Though the president remains popular, he should keep in mind that many of his supporters in the last election embraced him more because of their disgruntlement with his predecessor. Zambia is a country known for closely fought democratic transitions – if Hichilema loses the country’s support he could be on the raw end of that arrangement in 2026.
Connor Vasey is an Africa analyst at Eurasia Group.
People on vehicles, holding Taliban flags, gather near the Friendship Gate crossing point in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border town of Chaman, Pakistan.
What We’re Watching: Taliban loom large, China’s 5-year plan, Israel OKs West Bank construction, Zambians vote
US braces for Taliban takeover: Just weeks before US forces were set to fully withdraw from Afghanistan after almost 20 years, the Pentagon is sending 3,000 additional troops to guard Kabul's airport and help most US embassy staff leave the country safely. The State Department refused to call this development an evacuation, insisting that the embassy will remain open after the US withdrawal for some duties, including processing special US visa applications for Afghans who worked for and helped the US military. Meanwhile, Taliban forces have captured their eleventh provincial capital in just one week as they zero in on Kabul. The Taliban now control the country's second and third largest cities — Kandahar and Herat — as well as roughly two-thirds of all Afghan districts, raising fears of an imminent takeover. US intelligence now anticipates Kabul could fall within 30 to 90 days, much earlier than previous estimates. Given the speed of the Taliban advance, the Biden administration's partial — and hasty — drawdown of the US diplomatic mission in Kabul makes sense in order to avoid the chaotic scenes of 1975, when the last Americans to leave Saigon were lifted off in helicopters from the roof of the embassy after the Vietcong conquered the capital of then-South Vietnam.
Israel authorizes Jewish and Palestinian construction in the West Bank: Israel has green-lit the construction of 2,200 new homes in the occupied West Bank — including 1,000 new units for Palestinians in the Jewish-majority area of the West Bank, known as Area C. It's the first time in years that the Israeli government has given Palestinians approval to build in this specific area, and comes after recent moves by Israel to bolster the standing of the Palestinian Authority, which rules in the West Bank yet is very unpopular with Palestinian voters. But critics say it is also a calculated play by Israel's rightwing PM Naftali Bennett to push through plans for more Jewish settler homes. Settlement construction is a lightning rod issue in Israeli politics: Meretz, a left-wing junior member of Naftali's coalition government, has already criticized the move. Still, none of this is surprising given that Bennett has never concealed his rightwing bonafides, and Israel's nascent ideologically-diverse coalition government was always going to have major disagreements on policy issues. So, why announce this now? Bennet likely wanted to get it out of the way so that the thorny issue doesn't overshadow his first meeting with US President Joe Biden next month.
What's in China's new five-year plan? Beijing has released a new "rule of law" blueprint detailing some of the government's policy priorities over the next five years. Clearly, cracking down on tech giants will continue to be a massive policy focus for Beijing, which detailed the need to "enhance anti-monopoly law enforcement." The Chinese Communist Party will also increase regulatory control over sectors like healthcare, technology, and the insurance industry. In recent weeks and months, Chinese regulators have increasingly enforced new rules limiting the autonomy of businesses in pursuit of what the government calls "social stability". But some critics say this new report is business as usual, and merely reflects President Xi Jinping's modus operandi of quashing potential rival power centers in the business world.
Zambia's nail-biter election: Zambians go to the polls on Thursday to vote in a general election amid a severe COVID-fueled economic crisis. In what is expected to be a very close race, voters must choose between President Edgar Lungu, in power since 2015, and business tycoon Hakainde Hichilema, known by his initials HH and backed by most opposition forces. HH, running for an astounding sixth time, wants to cut mining taxes to lure foreign investors and renegotiate the country's debt with the IMF. (Zambia was the first African country to default after the pandemic struck, in part because the money it owes to China, which rarely gives debt relief, has increased seven-fold under Lungu.) The latest polling has HH ahead by a narrow margin because economic stagnation and untenable borrowing have hurt Lungu, but the challenger' says it won't be a fair fight: the incumbent is using intimidation and violence to subdue voter turnout, even deploying the military. You can bet a close result will be contested in both the courts and the streets of Africa’s second-largest producer of copper.