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Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas arrives at the Consilium building in Brussels, Belgium, on March 20, 2025.

Aleksy Witwicki/Sipa USA

European leaders offer plans to bolster Ukraine

Though European leaders have been excluded from Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine, meetings on Thursday in Brussels and London aimed to demonstrate Europe’s continuing commitment to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to repel Russian invaders.

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Volodymyr Zelensky gestures as he attends a press conference on March 12, 2025.

REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko

Trump and Zelensky phone call keeps talks “on track”

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had a phone call on Wednesday that had supporters of Ukraine’s defense on the edge of their seats. After the call ended, Trump quickly took to Truth Social to characterize the nearly hourlong exchange as a “very good telephone call.” He added, “We are very much on track.” Zelensky issued a statement later on Wednesday that called the conversation “positive” and “very substantive,” prompting sighs of relief from Kyiv to Brussels.

Zelensky’s statement also said that “together with America, with President Trump, and under American leadership, lasting peace can be achieved this year,” a comment that says less about the near-term chances for peace than about how much the Ukrainian president has learned about what it takes to keep Trump onside. Still, in his post on X, Zelensky agreed that ending strikes on energy and other civilian infrastructure was a good first step, saying "I supported this step, and Ukraine confirmed that we are ready to implement it."

But the Ukrainian leader also has repeatedly warned Trump that when it comes to dealing with Vladimir Putin, one must “trust but verify.” Ukraine had already accused Russia of targeting energy infrastructure in the early hours of Wednesday morning and of a new attack on the electricity system powering the railways in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region. This is despite the fact that Putin has said he ordered the Russian military to halt energy infrastructure attacks right after getting off the phone with Trump on Tuesday.

In better news, Russia and Ukraine swapped 175 prisoners of war each on Wednesday, one of the largest exchanges the two sides have made, according to Zelensky.

Today, EU leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss further support for Ukraine, and Zelensky is set to open the summit with a speech made by video link.

- YouTube

Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: The Putin-Trump call, some 90 minutes long, now over. And I would call this a win for both sides, for the Americans and the Russians, and not horrible for Ukraine and Europe, but kicking the can on what's going to be some big problems down the road and setting out where those challenges are going to be. Why is that?

Well, first of all, Putin said, "No," to the 30-day complete ceasefire, but did give a win to Trump, having accepted a 30-day ceasefire with no conditions with the Ukrainians. The Russians are saying they're prepared to do that, with no gives, as long as it's about targeting energy infrastructure, and in principle, still some discussions around maritime attacks around the Black Sea. Places that frankly the Russians have been irritated with what Ukraine has been able to do with air drones and with sea drones. And also allows the Russians to continue to press for territorial gains over the course of the coming weeks, depleting Ukraine's military capabilities. Plus, the weather's getting warmer, how much damage are you going to do to Ukraine, how miserable you can make them when you're no longer dealing with the freeze is not quite as relevant. So, not a particular loss for the Russians.

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- YouTube

What will Trump offer Putin in Ukraine ceasefire talks?

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Tomorrow is the call between President Trump and President Putin. The most important geopolitical discussion I would argue that we have seen so far of the Trump administration. Look, what we've had so far has been a move towards a ceasefire. Trump beating up on the Ukrainians, on President Zelensky in particular, which is comparatively easy to do. They are in a much weaker position. That's particularly easy to do if you don't feel like you need to be in lockstep with NATO allies, with the Europeans, with the Canadians. And as a consequence, Trump, off-again and now on-again relationship with the Ukrainian president, has now gotten Ukraine to agree to a one-month ceasefire with no preconditions. And that's definitely progress. And the Europeans are all on board and supportive of that.

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- YouTube

Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take on the back of the Riyadh meeting between the Americans and the Ukrainians, a very different reaction to when President Zelensky was visiting the White House just a week and a bit ago. Here we have a Zelensky emissary, senior delegation meeting with Rubio, secretary of State and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and coming out with a significant improvement in Ukraine's position.

First, an end of the suspension of delivery of US military aid and intelligence provision, which is critical for the Ukrainians being able to continue to defend themselves. And in return, Ukraine and the United States both announcing acceptance of terms for a 30-day, no condition ceasefire, end of the fighting exactly where it is right now. No territory changes, hands, no promises of anything beyond that. No guarantees about NATO, no promises not to join NATO, nothing like that. And now it goes to the Russians. And that is clearly not what the Russians wanted to hear.

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- YouTube

US-Canada trade war helps Mark Carney's election prospects

With recent tensions between Zelensky and Washington, how likely are the Saudi-hosted peace talks to yield real progress?

Well, we'll find out real soon. Zelensky has certainly made his efforts to make nice on the critical minerals deal, on apologizing to the Trump White House for a meeting that frankly he has very little to apologize for, and that certainly has helped with getting this engagement going. Also, he's not attending personally, rather, his key envoys and advisors meeting with Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Adviser Waltz. I suspect that the meetings will end up being just fine, but they are unlikely to lead to a ceasefire because what the Ukrainians are prepared to accept, the Russians are not close to accepting. So either Trump is going to have to be willing to take some time, bring it to the Russians and see that the Russians are not playing full ball, or he's going to have to throw the Ukrainians under the bus more and make greater demands that they're not prepared to accept. I don't think either of those things are likely to happen today, but that's I think, the direction of travel.

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If Trump's foreign policy pushes allies away, can the US go it alone?

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Marco Rubio heading to Saudi Arabia to talk with the Ukrainians. That's clearly the most important of a lot of moving parts geopolitically in the world right now. I say that because so much of what the Americans decide to do and not do with the Ukrainians is going to have massive impact on the transatlantic relationship, on NATO, on US-Europe relations, and on the nature of what has been the most important collective security arrangement in the world and is now experiencing crisis. It's very clear that the Ukrainians, as Trump says, lack the cards. And so the outcome is going to be determined largely by countries outside of Ukraine, not just the willingness and the capacity of the Ukrainians themselves to continue to fight. The United States, on the one hand, is pushing the Europeans to do a lot more. A lot more in terms of providing economic support, providing military support, and having a security backstop for a post-ceasefire environment that the Americans are not prepared to participate in.

Now, if all of that happens, and of course that's a big if, but certainly the Europeans are moving in that direction, then the interesting point is the Americans aren't going to determine the outcome. In the sense that the ultimate ceasefire terms will be driven not by the United States, who's basically saying, "We're washing our hands of it." But instead by the Europeans and the Ukrainians, in concert with Russia. And first of all, that's analogous to what's been happening in the Middle East. Everybody remembers that Trump said, "We're going to own Gaza and all the Palestinians are going to leave," and of course, that's not where we're heading. And the eventual outcome will be determined overwhelmingly by the countries that are prepared to spend the actual money and provide the security and figure out the politics. And that means the Arab States, that means Egypt and Jordan, it means Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it means the potential for blocking by Israel.

That's the environment that we are increasingly going to be seeing on the ground in Ukraine. That the Europeans are going to be doing the driving. The Ukrainians are going to have to align with that and the blocking potentially by Russia. The big difference, of course, is that in the case of Ukraine, the United States is also very interested in doing a deal with Russia over the head of the Ukrainians and the Europeans. There's no equivalent in the Middle East at all. And here, the reason it's so important is because the ability of the Ukrainians to continue to engage in their willingness with the US and Europe together will determine in large part whether a deal between the US and Russia involves a ceasefire with Ukraine or doesn't. If Trump can say, "Hey, the reason we didn't get a deal and the reason they're still fighting is because Ukraine refuses to be a part of it," then a deal with Russia is actually much easier to get to by Trump. Because it involves just re-engagement diplomatically, investment by the US and Russia, joint projects, reopening of arms control conversations, and doesn't involve a Ukraine ceasefire.

Trump has said, "Not only does Ukraine not have cards, but Russia doesn't have cards." Of course, the reality is that if the Russians are willing to do the fighting for a longer period of time, and the Americans don't care and the Europeans can't stand up, then the Russians are the ones with the cards. That is where we are heading. And if the Americans are prepared to do a deal with the Russians irrespective of what happens on the ground in Ukraine, and that is being tested very much over the coming days, that's perhaps the most important outcome of what we see from the US-Ukrainian talks in Saudi Arabia, then the transatlantic relationship is in a lot more trouble than it is right now.

So I think those are the pieces that we're talking about here. It is very clear that the Americans see alliances and see allies as expendable, that it's not that important for the Americans to treat allies with respect. If they're smaller, if they're less powerful, you can do whatever you want. And we saw that with Elon Musk beating up on Poland and the Foreign Minister, Radek Sikorski, someone I've been actually friends with for a very long time, and I think that's not a smart way to conduct business. Poland's been a steadfast ally, they're spending upwards of 4% of their GDP on defense, heading towards 5% going forward. They've housed millions of Ukrainian refugees. They've done far more on the ground in Ukraine per capita than the Americans have on pretty much every front. And also, by the way, there are a lot of Polish Americans that vote, and some of them vote Republican. Far more important than the Ukrainian vote, for example, and that seems to matter too, but maybe not to Elon.

I think that these sorts of insults are unnecessary, and they damage American allies. But I think the Trump administration's perspective is as long as the US is the most powerful country in the world, that America alone is stronger than America with friends, and it's probably the area of greatest geopolitical disagreement that I have with this administration. But we will see how it plays out. I certainly agree that there will be a lot of wins that we will continue to see, because less powerful countries do not want to get into a big fight with the United States. But long-term, I think this is going to play out badly. And I particularly think that's true in the transatlantic relationship where permanent damage is being done irrespective of what happens after Trump. Anyway, a lot to talk about, a lot of moving pieces. We'll talk real soon, and that's it from me.

People stand at the site of an apartment building hit by a Russian missile strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the town of Dobropillia, Donetsk region, Ukraine, on March 8, 2025.

REUTERS/Nadia Karpova

Putin ramps up attacks as Ukraine flies blind ahead of Riyadh talks

Russian forces bombarded Ukraine for two consecutive nights this weekend, killing over 25 people in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Moscow also retook three towns in Kursk after troops crawled for miles through a gas pipeline and staged a surprise attack.

Why the increased aggression? US President Donald Trump’s recent moves — halting US intelligence sharing, freezing aid, and dressing down Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office — have emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin. And while peace talks are set to resume in Jeddah this week, the list of American demands has shifted in Russia’s favor. Trump is reportedly pressuring Zelensky to concede territory, hold elections, and step down as leader.

In response to Russia’s latest salvos, Trump did post that he is “strongly considering large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions, and Tariffs on Russia until a Cease Fire and FINAL SETTLEMENT AGREEMENT ON PEACE IS REACHED.” However, former Trump advisor John Boltoncalled it a “totally hollow” threat, while key Trump advisor Elon Musk has called for additional sanctions not on Russia, but on Ukrainian oligarchs, and suggested that the US walk away from NATO.

What will Europe do? After announcing additional EC defense spending of $870 billion last Thursday,European leaders will meetagain on March 20-21 to discuss next steps. According to European Council President Antonio Costa, this could include pledges of $16 billion more military aid to Ukraine in addition to the $32 billion already committed this year. It’s still far short of the $70 billion given by the US, however, which is now paused.

Signs of hope? Zelensky is in Saudi Arabia for a state visit on Monday, and on Tuesday, his team will meet with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz in Riyadh. A US state official says Ukraine is “ready to move forward,” and Rubio and Waltz are optimistic ahead of this week's meetings.

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