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Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting with members of the Security Council via video link at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on October 24, 2025.
It’s been a tumultuous couple of weeks for US-Russia relations.
Two weeks ago, US President Donald Trump was considering handing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, which would allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory. But, following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Oct. 16, Trump decided to chop the Tomahawk plan, and announced a meeting with his Russian counterpart.
That quickly fell apart, though – reportedly because negotiations over a ceasefire deal had stalled – and by Oct. 23, an agitated Trump announced that he was sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce half of Russia’s oil. This was a step that even the Biden administration refused to take, largely over fears that oil prices would spike, driving up inflation.
Now, combined with Biden-era sanctions on Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz, the US has blacklisted Moscow’s four largest crude producers.
There’s just one problem, per Eurasia Group’s Russia expert Alex Brideau.
“The new US sanctions are most likely insufficient to change Putin’s strategy in the war against Ukraine,” said Brideau. “The full effect will depend, in part, on whether the largest importers of Russian oil, India and China, halt these purchases.”
Will China and India halt purchases? Here’s the thing: they just might. This would be devastating for the Kremlin: the two countries combined currently purchase more than 80% of Russia’s crude exports, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. What’s more, the oil & gas sector is vital to Russia’s government purse – it’s responsible for 30-50% of total budget revenues.
Even absent any pressure from the government to comply or ignore the sanctions, Chinese refiners are already looking elsewhere, per Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale.
“I think there is no chance that China will push its firms to comply with the sanctions for the purposes of improving bilateral relations,” said Meale. “However, their major oil companies have already curtailed purchases due to how the threat of sanctions affects their other international interactions.”
India, meanwhile, has until now resisted Trump’s direct pressure to stop buying Russian oil, in part because it wants Moscow to stay neutral if China-India tensions flare up again. With the new US sanctions in place, though, it could be a different story.
“The sanctions on the two largest Russian oil firms have certainly changed the situation,” said Ashok Malik, partner and chair of The Asia Group’s India practice. “I would expect Russian oil purchases to decline significantly — at least in the medium run — should these measures be carried through.”
It seems the process has already begun: Reuters reported last week that Indian oil refiners are poised to halt purchases of Russian oil.
“A near-total halt in Russian crude imports by late November appears inevitable – not out of political alignment, but because continuing would endanger India’s economy itself,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative, told GZERO.
In a sign that the sanctions are already hurting Russian crude firms, Lukoil unveiled a plan yesterday to sell off its foreign assets.
So it looks like Moscow is in trouble? There are signs that the attritional war is starting to take a toll on the Russian economy, which had been remarkably resilient over the first three years of the war. The International Monetary Fund forecast that the Russian economy will expand by less than 1% this year – it grew over 4% in each of the last two years. Inflation has remained stubbornly high at around 8%. And Russians are becoming less optimistic about whether economic conditions are improving in their area, per a Gallup poll.
“Over a longer period of time,” said Brideau, “these trade-offs may become too difficult for the state to manage.”
A stubborn (Moscow) mule. If there is one last reason that Russia will continue this war, it’s Putin. The Russian leader has displayed an extraordinarily high threshold for pain on the battlefield: his army has suffered huge losses and is advancing in Ukraine at a snail’s pace, yet he has shown no willingness to compromise on his main war objectives. He believes that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that NATO shouldn’t be continuing to expand along Russia’s border.
If this high pain threshold applies to economic suffering, too, then these sanctions won’t stop the war any time soon.
“Politically, Putin remains strongly committed to his objectives in Ukraine,” said Brideau. “He is willing to risk the long-term health of the Russian economy to pursue these goals.”
What We’re Watching: US and Japan sign rare earths deal, Bill Gates softens on climate, world’s oldest leader declares victory
U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, speaks to the country's military personnel aboard the aircraft carrier George Washington at the U.S. Navy base in Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, eastern Japan, on Oct. 28, 2025.
Trump signs deals in Tokyo
US President Donald Trump and Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a critical minerals deal and Tokyo pledged $550 billion of fresh investment in the US, as well as purchases of American pickups. Trump heaped praise on Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader, who is a conservative China hawk and a protegé of slain former PM Shinzo Abe, a Trump pal. Takaichi called for Trump to win the Nobel prize. The dealmaking bonhomie smoothed rocky relations between the US and its longstanding ally Japan. Trump’s next Asia stop is in South Korea tomorrow, ahead of a crucial Thursday summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. A mooted meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears not to be in the cards.
Bill Gates changes his tune on climate change
A week before COP30 climate summit in Brazil, Bill Gates has cautioned against a “doomsday outlook” on climate change. Record scrrrratch – what? The global philanthropist, who has poured billions into the effort to slow global warming, now says we should focus more energy on tackling disease and poverty in the developing world instead. Gates’s focus has shifted in part because of the Trump administration’s moves to slash foreign aid budgets – he wants to fill the void left by defunct USAID programs. Earlier this year his flagship clean energy venture fund shuttered its climate policy group.
World’s oldest leader wins another term in Cameroon
Who’d have guessed it? Cameroon’s 92-year-old President Paul Biya was elected to an eighth seven-year term in office, after he was finally declared the victor of the West African country’s October 12th election on Monday. Biya officially won 53.7% of the vote, against just 35.2% for opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary – who had declared victory last week. Biya’s victory claim has prompted violent unrest in the oil-rich nation, including in Bakary’s hometown of Garoua. The protests had been expected to continue Tuesday, but a combination of bad weather and a fierce crackdown appear to have kept demonstrators at bay for now.
Hard Numbers: Italian pacifists stall EU ammo, Israel and Hamas at odds over hostage remains, Former Malian PM gets jail sentence, & More
Troisi Theater in Fuorigrotta during the presentation of the Five Star Movement's candidate lists for the Campania region, with the presence of Presidential Candidate Roberto Fico and former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte.
13: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire again hangs by a thread as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the remains of an Israeli hostage returned overnight belonged to another body recovered by Israeli forces two years ago. The remains of 13 hostages remain in Gaza, Hamas says it is struggling to find their bodies amid the rubble.
2: A Malian court sentenced former Prime Minister Moussa Mara to two years in prison after he criticized the military government for harming the country’s democracy, Mara’s lawyer said on Monday. President Assimi Goïta has reportedly cracked down on dissent ever since seizing power in a 2021 coup.
18: An instant classic, last night’s game three of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays ran to an astounding 18 innings, lasting more than six hours before the Dodgers’ Freddie Freeman hit a walk-off home run to win it. No word yet on how this affects frozen US-Canada trade talks.
14,000: Amazon will cut about 14,000 corporate jobs as it leans further into AI to streamline operations. The company plans more layoffs next year, citing over-hiring during the pandemic and broader plans to reshape Amazon’s workforce.
Hurricane Melissa, which has developed into a Category 5 storm, moves north in the Caribbean Sea towards Jamaica and Cuba in a composite satellite image obtained by Reuters on October 27, 2025.
160,000: Al-Qaeda-linked insurgents are blocking shipments of fuel in Mali, spurring a shortage that has forced schools and gas stations to close. The insurgents are attempting to topple the military-led government. Russia said it would deliver over 160,000 tons of petroleum and agriculture products as it tries to deepen ties with the West African country – though how and when this aid will arrive isn’t clear.
4: Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara, who is 83, won a fourth term in office, with his former Commerce Minister Jean-Louis Billon conceding defeat following Saturday’s election. Ouattara had clamped down on both the opposition and protests in the build up to the election, and his main two rivals were barred from running (read more here).
30,000: Diphtheria, a bacterial disease that is fatal to young children, is making a worrying comeback in parts of the developing world. In Nigeria, the most-populous country in Africa, nearly 30,000 cases have been reported over the last two years. There have also been outbreaks in Chad, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Lower immunization rates have allowed the disease to spread.
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh as East Timor's Prime Minister Kay Rala Xanana Gusmao and Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong look on at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on October 26, 2025.
US President Donald Trump kicked off his five-day trip to Asia by signing a raft of trade deals on Sunday with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur. Next, Trump heads to Japan to meet newly-elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Tuesday morning, before sitting down with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. What should we make of Trump’s trip so far, and what can we expect in the week to come?
Deals! Deals! Deals! In Kuala Lumpur, Trump reached agreements that promise to eliminate tariffs on roughly 99% of goods with Thailand, reduce Washington’s $123-billion trade deficit with Vietnam, and secure Malaysia’s agreement not to restrict rare-earth exports to the US. Simultaneously, delegates from the US and China met on the sidelines, producing a preliminary framework for a deal that could pause new American tariffs and Chinese export controls, in preparation for Trump’s meeting with Xi on Thursday.
Tuesday with Takaichi. Next, Trump meets Takaichi, who took office last week. The new Japanese PM is known as a China hawk and has promised to ramp up defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule, which should please Trump. But she also must follow through on her predecessor’s pledge to funnel $550 billion worth of investment into the US by 2030. Japan is reportedly prepared to offer sweeteners to Trump in the form of increased purchases of US soybeans and trucks. The two countries are also set to sign an agreement to cooperate on advanced technologies including AI, quantum computing, and nuclear fusion.
The main event: Trump and Xi. The leaders of the world’s two largest economies will seek to ease a deepening trade war without ceding ground on critical priorities.
According to David Meale, Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China, the two sides are looking to find a path between each other’s pain points. “In particular, critical minerals need to flow from China to keep advanced industries in the US and elsewhere operating, and certain technologies (especially advanced chips) need to be available to China for its development of emerging technology sectors that are central to its economic blueprint going forward.”
While full details of the Oct. 26 framework are not yet available, both sides aim to make progress on key issues. Trump wants better cooperation from Beijing on stopping the export of fentanyl precursors, as well as further commitments from China to buy US goods, especially agricultural products. Xi, meanwhile, wants to head off Trump’s threats to raise tariffs further and impose fresh export controls on US software exports. And both sides seek a “a final deal” on the sale of TikTok’s operations in the US.
Potential pitfalls. Trump has said he will raise the contentious questions of Taiwanese independence — which the US has implicitly supported despite longstanding Chinese objections — and possibly the detention of Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai. Florida Senator Rick Scott published an open letter urging Trump to press Xi for Lai’s release, and a group of Catholic bishops also has urged his freedom. Lai, who converted to Catholicism in 1997, has become a symbol of Hong Kong’s resistance.
Nonetheless, Meale expects that the meeting will strike a positive tone, due to the respect shown by the two leaders to each other. “Chinese officials believe President Trump is someone with which they can chart a course forward,” he says, “because he is pragmatic and demonstrates respect to President Xi.”
Postscript in Pyongyang? Trump mused this morning about the possibility of extending his trip to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. “I’d love to meet with him, if he’d like to meet,” said Trump. “It’s our last stop, so it’s pretty easy to do.”What We’re Watching: Milei’s smashing election night, Brazil’s Lula eyes US trade deal, Sudan’s rebel forces seize stricken Darfur town
Argentina's President Javier Milei celebrates after the La Libertad Avanza party won the midterm election, which is seen as crucial for Milei's administration after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that future support for Argentina would depend on Milei's party performing well in the vote, in Buenos Aires, Argentina, October 26, 2025.
Argentina’s Milei bounces back in midterms
Argentine President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party surged in yesterday’s parliamentary elections, getting more than 40% of the vote – against just 32% for the opposition Peronists – winning enough seats to ensure the opposition can’t override the president’s veto. Milei was in a tough spot ahead of the vote, facing a stagnating economy, a corruption scandal involving his sister, and dwindling central bank reserves (a result of his policy of propping up the peso). But the results suggest Argentine voters appreciate the “anarcho-capitalist” outsider’s efforts to tame inflation via economic “shock therapy.” Argentine bonds surged following the results, which gives Milei a mandate to continue with his approach while also opening the way for a $20 billion bailout from the United States.
Can Trump and Lula make a deal?
After meeting with Trump at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia yesterday, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said a new US-Brazil trade deal is “guaranteed.” In June, US President Donald Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Brazil, blasting the country’s controversial content moderation policies, demanding an end to the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro on coup charges, and accusing the country of “unfair” trade practices (note: the US actually runs a surplus with Brazil). Is a deal possible? Lula won’t change tack on content moderation, nor is he going to “free” Bolsonaro. What else might Washington seek from Brazil instead? Trump seems less certain of a deal than Lula, saying only “we’ll see.”
Sudan’s Darfur region falls to the Rapid Support Forces
In a fresh turn for Sudan’s brutal civil war, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have pushed their rivals in the Sudanese Army out of El Fasher, a key city in the Darfur region. The move gives the RSF broader control over Western Sudan. El Fasher has been under siege since April, with civilians trapped inside enduring extreme famine and violence. The RSF, which has been accused of genocide by the US, was driven out of eastern and central Sudan, as well as the capital, Khartoum, earlier this year.Trump calls off trade talks with Canada
Just as the Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series tonight, US President Donald Trump abruptly canceled trade talks with Canada on Thursday after an ad quoting Ronald Reagan’s warning that tariffs “hurt every American” was aired in Ontario. The move derails a brief thaw between the neighbors and major trading partners. Prime Minister Mark Carney has talked tough on US protectionism, but Canada’s reliance on its southern neighbor leaves him little room to maneuver — the last time Trump suspended talks, Ottawa quickly backed off a proposed digital tax. We’ll be watching to see how Carney tries to get Trump back to the negotiating table.
Court throws out case to oust Turkish opposition leader
A Turkish court has thrown out the case calling for the main opposition leader, Republican People’s Party chair Ozgur Ozel, to be ousted from power and for his party’s congress to be annulled. The court case involved supposed irregularities during the party’s internal elections in 2023, during which Ozel was elected and would later go on to energize the opposition and defeat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party in municipal elections. The decision is a boost for democracy in a country that is fighting against authoritarian pressures.